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If it's a blowout it makes it extremely hard to contest right? Because drat Biden is burying him
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Oct 4, 2020 14:10
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TulliusCicero posted:If it's a blowout it makes it extremely hard to contest right? A 14-pt. national lead, while very unlikely to be the final margin, would result in scenarios like PA being called instantly and Indiana being too close to call on election night. With blowouts of that proportion, weird things will happen all over the map.
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Oct 4, 2020 14:12
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exquisite tea posted:A 14-pt. national lead, while very unlikely to be the final margin, would result in scenarios like PA being called instantly and Indiana being too close to call on election night. With blowouts of that proportion, weird things will happen all over the map. In a redistricting year too.
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Oct 4, 2020 14:13
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https://twitter.com/rickklein/status/1312741349209366529?s=20
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Oct 4, 2020 14:14
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TulliusCicero posted:If it's a blowout it makes it extremely hard to contest right? Yeah. The more states Biden wins the more states Trump has to contest to be successful. And the bigger the margin in a state, the harder is to swing the result by trying to get ballots invalidated that arrive late or have the wrong envelope or hanging chads or whatever
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Oct 4, 2020 14:16
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https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1312741715783151619?s=19
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Oct 4, 2020 14:16
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Beaten
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Oct 4, 2020 14:17
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goodness
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Oct 4, 2020 14:25
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Haha this will infuriate trump and make him try to get back to the campaign trail sooner I hope this lead sticks and these idiots don’t forget what he’s done by end of week and go back to him. I wish the election was this Tuesday 
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Oct 4, 2020 14:36
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https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1312742026081959936 Holy moly
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Oct 4, 2020 14:39
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turns out running on "LET GRANDPA DIE FOR THE DOW" was not a good idea when grandpa was previously one of your strongest supporters?
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Oct 4, 2020 14:48
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I still don’t understand how it’s possible for people to change their minds about trump at this point. Were they truly not paying attention to anything he said or did?
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Oct 4, 2020 14:55
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:I still don’t understand how it’s possible for people to change their minds about trump at this point. Were they truly not paying attention to anything he said or did? It seems like the taxes/debate double whammy really shattered the illusion the RWM was able to cobble together for Trump's more fringe followers and boomers as a whole He's poor and deranged; now he's poor, deranged, and dying from his own stupid bullshit
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Oct 4, 2020 14:57
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:I still don’t understand how it’s possible for people to change their minds about trump at this point. Were they truly not paying attention to anything he said or did? I can imagine different groups of people changing their mind over the last few months, weeks, and days. Last few months: old people who previously supported Trump but don't like the idea of dying so Number Goes Up, and for whom Good Old Joe Biden is an acceptable alternative. Last few weeks: people who aren't terminally online and don't pay much attention to the news. They've primarily interacted with Trump through sanitized news clips or through evening news commentary, and probably dismissed some of the attacks on him as hyperbole. When they started actually paying attention because now it's election time, they watched the debate and thought "oh my god he really is actually as bad as people said he was" and "oh my god he actually is a white supremacist" and their inner sense of  has made them not want to support him. Also they learned he's either a terrible businessman or a tax fraud or both, which probably doesn't help.Last few days: he got Covid and 65% of the country including half of Republicans say it's his own drat fault, and people who previously might have been willing to entertain the Trump narrative of "well he's doing his best and maybe it really would have been more than 200,000 deaths without his leadership" are suddenly seeing that no, he legitimately just never took it seriously to the point that he caught it himself like a loving idiot, and those people didn't have to die and would not have died under a competent administration.
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Oct 4, 2020 14:59
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Sounds like Biden will have Florida sewed up if that holds.
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Oct 4, 2020 14:59
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Trump's viral karma also had the effect of putting the pandemic back in the news, which is Trump's worst issue.
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Oct 4, 2020 15:00
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:I still don’t understand how it’s possible for people to change their minds about trump at this point. Were they truly not paying attention to anything he said or did? Yes, a not-inconsiderable amount of people don't follow politics regularly. Harder to do now than it used to be, but there are still plenty of people who just tune it out because they don't find it interesting and just don't want to be bothered with it - but feel like they should check up now, and got one hell of a rude awakening from the debate. There are also probably people in a fox news bubble who have become pretty done with trump but were concerned with the "biden is senile! biden is actually the antichrist!" nonsense and the debate was illuminating and banished enough doubts to get behind Biden. evilweasel fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Oct 4, 2020 |
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Oct 4, 2020 15:02
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There is probably a non-insignificant number of people out there who don't consider themselves political, rarely vote, but might like to live the next four years without having to think about the president every 5 loving minutes.
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Oct 4, 2020 15:05
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Those post-debate numbers are hilarious when you remember the live debate thread, where everyone was convinced that Biden was completely blowing it and looking weak by allowing Trump to steamroller him.
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Oct 4, 2020 15:33
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https://mobile.twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1312761958014373889
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Oct 4, 2020 15:34
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FMguru posted:Those post-debate numbers are hilarious when you remember the live debate thread, where everyone was convinced that Biden was completely blowing it and looking weak by allowing Trump to steamroller him. Regular reminder that SA users are not representative of the overall non-chud electorate and that the loudest brokebrained Dems Bad posters fortunately even less so.
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Oct 4, 2020 15:41
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My expert poll analysis of this is "Hail Satan."
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Oct 4, 2020 15:45
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Rea posted:My expert poll analysis of this is "Hail Satan." 
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Oct 4, 2020 15:48
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Wish there were less undecideds in that Ohio poll but otherwise good.
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Oct 4, 2020 15:52
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Old people loving vote, too.
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Oct 4, 2020 15:56
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exquisite tea posted:A 14-pt. national lead, while very unlikely to be the final margin, would result in scenarios like PA being called instantly and Indiana being too close to call on election night. With blowouts of that proportion, weird things will happen all over the map. I mean honestly with how absolutely crazy everything is at the moment, normally you would say if things settled down a bit you might find people going back to trump, but now like it's pretty much impossible for there not to a whole bunch more massive surprises to hit, like how do you even predict for that? Like the exact 14-pt lead seems soft, but with so many polls coming through reporting a large swing to Biden this week seems to be pretty much a thing.
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Oct 4, 2020 16:03
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1312770051959910400?s=19
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Oct 4, 2020 16:04
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With the amount of people who are going to be early and mail in voting a 14 point lead with 30 days left means a lot more than it did in prior cycles. 3 million people have already voted and it’s all concentrated in the swing states.
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Oct 4, 2020 16:05
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I disagree - the bottom falling out will continue. We’re going to see Mitch start telling Senators to do what you can to save your seat and money will be pulled from Trump ads and redirected elsewhere by the big PACs.
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Oct 4, 2020 16:06
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I mean the campaign had the stench of death around it this week even before that became a lot more literal.
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Oct 4, 2020 16:11
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Trump's covid news is devastating to him. Even if he doesn't get harmed by the news itself, it essentially takes him out of the race for at least 2 weeks and probably longer because he's an unhealthy gently caress. Not that big of a deal if this happened back in May but right now with 4 weeks to go, you probably don't wanna be hidden away for half that time when you're down so much and just came off an embarrassing and harmful first debate.
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Oct 4, 2020 16:12
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Him bring down also makes and crazy shenanigans from him look like desperate attempts to win. Not going to believe it until November 4th
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Oct 4, 2020 16:14
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It’s also terrible because it completely throws a wrench in the narrative they’ve been pushing that aggressively minimized Covid. We go from “covid’s over, everything’s normal” one day to “president in hospital from covid” the next. You can’t argue the president has done a good job with covid when he himself is loving hospitalized by it
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Oct 4, 2020 16:15
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Of all the years to see a weak Republican president leading to a collapse of support for downballot candidates, I have to say it's particularly satisfying (and consequential) that it's happening in a redistricting year. If Trump suffers the sort of electoral rout that the numbers are pointing to, that means a huge harvest of state legislators for the Dems. I've seen a lot about Senate seats being up for grabs - are there any important (or unlikely) governorships potentially in play?
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Oct 4, 2020 16:16
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Fun fact: Wisconsin is already at 15% of its 2016 turnout.
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Oct 4, 2020 16:16
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 one of these polls again that MAGA is pushing to distract from polls that came out todayhttps://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1312771713319436288?s=20 quote:The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent.
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Oct 4, 2020 16:23
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It goes without saying that 538 does not include that pollster.
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Oct 4, 2020 16:28
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Rasmussen once again shows how unapologetically biased they are for Trump and Republicans https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1312775286652579842?s=20
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Oct 4, 2020 16:29
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 13:35 |
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Rasmussen once again shows how unapologetically biased they are for Trump and Republicans It’s absolutely inexcusable that Nate still allows this pollster into his modeling.
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Oct 4, 2020 16:30
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