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Fritz Coldcockin posted:E: Posted mea culpa already.
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Oct 12, 2020 18:50
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 23:44 |
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Failed Imagineer posted:Mea culpa, I didn't click link he says what his evidence is in the tweet, you didn't even need to click it
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Oct 12, 2020 18:52
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Turns out that not liking Donald Trump is not a controversial opinion.
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Oct 12, 2020 18:52
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Fame Douglas posted:lmao, as usual, the reveal never warrants the earlier "knock knock" tweet A 6 point shift over a two week period is pretty significant though.
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Oct 12, 2020 18:52
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Rea posted:According to RCP's average, which has junk polls like Emerson dragging it down, Biden has an average +6.9 favorability, compared with Trump's -11.3. Fame Douglas posted:lmao, as usual, the reveal never warrants the earlier "knock knock" tweet Old Kentucky Shark fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Oct 12, 2020 |
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Oct 12, 2020 18:53
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Murgos posted:Turns out that not liking Donald Trump is not a controversial opinion. That's not what Enten is saying. The smaller number is Biden's unfavorability, not Trump's favorability. The argument being presented is that Biden is actually what the voters want, not that they're settling for him to get rid of Trump.
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Oct 12, 2020 18:57
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Old Kentucky Shark posted:Nah, saying that even the Trump-leaning pollsters are starting to show Biden +9 is the type of thing that will freak out the GOP and WH. Their safety blanket is being taken away. True, but have you considered the fact that https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1315668059751931904
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Oct 12, 2020 18:57
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1315701435393355776
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Oct 12, 2020 18:58
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Also even if you like anecdotal stuff, how much legit anti-Biden merch have you seen? Anti-Biden signs? It also makes sense in that from 2009 onward, Biden's favorables have always been higher than Obama's among Ds and Rs. Biden is generically popular.
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Oct 12, 2020 18:59
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Eminai posted:That's not what Enten is saying. The smaller number is Biden's unfavorability, not Trump's favorability. The argument being presented is that Biden is actually what the voters want, not that they're settling for him to get rid of Trump. Someone got in between but I was actually referring to the image of people waiting in line to vote in GA, 'as though their lives depended on it.'
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Oct 12, 2020 19:00
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Old Kentucky Shark posted:Yeah, there's been significant improvement in his favorables starting with the first debate. Regardless of Biden's qualities as a person or the ideology he represents, people want a president who "looks and acts presidential" and Biden cleared that bar while Trump immolated it. the reality is that biden has always been broadly well-liked. there's a contingent of people who view him as the devil because of the primary and continue to do so, but those were always a very small (though vocal)minority: for the vast majority of people he has always been affable and well liked on both sides of the isle. not loved, but liked. it's why the attempts by both the bernie wing and the trump campaign to tar him just sort of bounced off. and remember, one big reason bernie didn't go hard against biden? bernie sanders personally likes joe biden a lot. it went down for a time among democrats because of the primary, but people have gotten over that. it went down a time on the right, because he hadn't been seen much so he got put back in the "generic democrat" that most republicans dislike. but as he's been out on the campaign trail he has been reminding tons of people that while they may not love him, they don't hate him and they kind of like him. it has been a tremendous advantage that no matter what trump does he just plain cannot get his base mad at biden. he's reprising the greatest hits of 2016 not (just) because his brain is cheese, but because trying to convince his base they're sticking it to hillary again is really the only way he can get them even vaguely enraged (and it's not going all that well) i think people confuse loving a candidate - nobody is walking through broken glass to vote for biden, compared to the way they'd vote for obama or bernie - with liking them. people like biden. they don't love him, but they like him. he will not personally drive absurd turnout just to vote for him in the way Obama could get people to vote for him, but he will be well liked enough to make people voting against trump (which they will walk through broken glass to do) also relatively happy to vote for him, and make it hard to demonize him. evilweasel fucked around with this message at 19:06 on Oct 12, 2020 |
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Oct 12, 2020 19:02
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Even Christie, when talking to colbert, led with "I like Joe Biden a lot" before going on to the party apparatus as his issue with Dems.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:04
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Pick posted:Also even if you like anecdotal stuff, how much legit anti-Biden merch have you seen? Anti-Biden signs? Being an old white man helps. Unfortunately, being female, having dark skin, and/or being an immigrant triggers some primitive and tribal instinctive poo poo in voters that can be overcome, but its there and has to be overcome. It is extremely easy to predict what ugly connotations the RW hate propaganda is going to have when a new Dem nationally emerges and I give you only their race, gender, and ethnicity. Its more challenging to stir up crazy hate against a boring old white guy.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:07
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Pick posted:Also even if you like anecdotal stuff, how much legit anti-Biden merch have you seen? Anti-Biden signs? It's actually been pretty telling how little Trump and the Republicans in general have gone after him (beyond the generic "sleepy Joe" jab), or to try to turn him into some anti-American boogeyman like they did with Obama. They best they can do is to suggest that Bernie and Kamala will secretly be running things, like even in the feverish, paranoid depths of the Republican psyche they know that a Biden presidency in itself wouldn't be scary to anyone. That's why they keep dredging up Hillary from time to time: I just really don't think they know how to attack him in a way that's likely to stick with voters.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:09
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Blurred posted:It's actually been pretty telling how little Trump and the Republicans in general have gone after him (beyond the generic "sleepy Joe" jab), or to try to turn him into some anti-American boogeyman like they did with Obama. They best they can do is to suggest that Bernie and Kamala will secretly be running things, like even in the feverish, paranoid depths of the Republican psyche they know that a Biden presidency in itself wouldn't be scary to anyone. That's why they keep dredging up Hillary from time to time: I just really don't think they know how to attack him in a way that's likely to stick with voters. I mean, they've gone after him a lot. It has just all failed miserably, to the extent they stopped trying.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:09
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I think that's true, and even as someone who complains about racism and sexism in politics a lot, though, I think Biden is likable even by white dude standards. He's more likable than Kaine or Hickenlooper even and they're... fine! If anything Biden's rep to beat was always that he was a dope and no one really gets furious over that.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:10
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Pick posted:Also even if you like anecdotal stuff, how much legit anti-Biden merch have you seen? Anti-Biden signs? I saw a "No To JOE and the HOE" sign in rural Illinois.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:11
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brugroffil posted:I saw a "No To JOE and the HOE" sign in rural Illinois. I mean even that tbh seems to be indicative that the problem they see is Harris.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:12
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evilweasel posted:I mean, they've gone after him a lot. It has just all failed miserably, to the extent they stopped trying. The senile thing was pretty dumb, because all he had to do was show up on tv and be fine, which he did. Especially contrasted with Trump being a loving maniac
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Oct 12, 2020 19:13
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Pick posted:I mean even that tbh seems to be indicative that the problem they see is Harris. shocked that trumpists would zero in on the sexism against a non-white woman
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Oct 12, 2020 19:14
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https://twitter.com/patrynard/status/1315716758465130496 lots to unbox here, but very good for dems in every regard.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:15
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Guze posted:The senile thing was pretty dumb, because all he had to do was show up on tv and be fine, which he did. Especially contrasted with Trump being a loving maniac I actually do think it made a little bit more sense in January. I do actually think that Biden has gotten a bit sharper, but I don't think it has anything to do with his inherent mental capacity. I think in early 2020, it kind of looked like whoever ran would probably be a sacrificial lamb. I think Trump had tremendously high odds of being reelected before the pandemic. So in that case, I think we would have an old Joe Biden, kind of wondering whether he even wants to be the candidate. He's wanted to be president his whole life, he has gotten extremely close in being veep, and with America on the line do you fail? Ended up like Hillary, largely hated as people try to forget you even existed? And the campaign trail is going to be rough, you're kind of famous for losing your temper when you have to deal with people face-to-face, if you think you'll probably have to because that's what Trump does with his rallies.... I think the reason that he sounds better is literally just because he feels better.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:18
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VitalSigns posted:It's basically the same playbook they ran against Bernie. Rupert Murdoch having a stranglehold on the British media didn’t help a bit. And whoever helped push the anti-semitism label on Corbyn did an amazing job because I was even hearing horror stories from American Jews about that.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:20
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Steve Schale published his thoughts on Florida absentee this morning http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2020/10/12/florida-22-days-out-why-am-i-still-doing-this-to-myself.html It's not very side-cally but worth a read nonethelessquote:It is really too early to be fixating on the VBM numbers. Why you ask? Well 2020 is different in every way possible, not the least of which is the rapid changes in how people are choosing to vote. In the past, there was some rhyme or reason to return rates, but this year, the combination of COVID, a coalition of groups on the left working on VBM requests, and Donald Trump setting a torch to Republican confidence in voting by mail has left us in uncharted territory. And here's his Florida 2020 preview: http://steveschale.com/blog/2020/9/14/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-florida-but-were-afraid.html WHich is a really good but long read, I can't remember if I posted it already.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:24
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Even before the pandemic Donald Trump was historically unpopular and had pretty high unfavorables. In fact his job approval has remained at remarkably consistent 41-44% despite being the biggest fuckup in presidential history. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders both regularly polled well against him and had plus favorables of their own. The COVID response isn't doing him any favors but Trump would still be a vulnerable candidate without it, though maybe not by as wide of a margin. I'm sure many books will get written about this exact thing though.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:24
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Pick posted:
This isn't really true at all. Trump has always been extremely unpopular and whoever the Dems ran would have had a better than 50/50 shot of winning even without the Covid clusterfuck. That's the whole reason the primary field was such a ridiculous clown car.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:26
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OctaMurk posted:The idea that we can't compare President Obama or anyone else to a historical figure because that historical figure is flawed, is ridiculous dude. I think the dude was having problems with the guy being a KKK super-racist. Not, you know, the idea that he was 'flawed'.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:27
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I mean, it all comes down to peoples individual perspectives, but frankly I normally think that strong economy incumbent is a done deal.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:32
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Pick posted:I mean, it all comes down to peoples individual perspectives, but frankly I normally think that strong economy incumbent is a done deal. Trump consistently polled well below any democratic challenger even while the economy was great. The only evidence to suggest that he would be favored, let alone strongly favored, was the fact he was an incumbent. There was no polling to suggest that Trump being heavily favored was the case and every expectation that the challenger would be favored, whoever it was.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:39
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Rigel posted:He's supposed to say that its close, and that their numbers look more encouraging than the public polls, but that they should not be complacent and their voters need to get out and vote. No one says "pfft, our opponent doesn't have a chance, this election is over, we will easily win", because it can make your own voters complacent. Good point, but that’s showing weakness which Trump will never allow. Republicans are saying across the board internal polls in other races are very bad for them, I have no doubt Trump’s are saying the same besides McLaughlin which is OANN in poll form. Biden and co should be really hitting trump on the paycheck protection program that failed black owned businesses. I’ve seen some talking points about it and he has a plan to help black owned businesses but he should be really hammering away at trumps bullshit about being better for black people than Lincoln.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:39
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Pick posted:I think in early 2020, it kind of looked like whoever ran would probably be a sacrificial lamb. I think Trump had tremendously high odds of being reelected before the pandemic. So in that case, I think we would have an old Joe Biden, kind of wondering whether he even wants to be the candidate. He's wanted to be president his whole life, he has gotten extremely close in being veep, and with America on the line do you fail? Ended up like Hillary, largely hated as people try to forget you even existed? And the campaign trail is going to be rough, you're kind of famous for losing your temper when you have to deal with people face-to-face, if you think you'll probably have to because that's what Trump does with his rallies.... Biden was almost +4 over Trump at the end of February so, no. EC wise it was probably pretty iffy then but the national popular vote has never been in doubt.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:42
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Murgos posted:Biden was almost +4 over Trump at the end of February so, no. EC wise it was probably pretty iffy then but the national popular vote has never been in doubt. I'm talking EC, sadly the popular vote really doesn't matter.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:43
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Trump's approval had been trending up starting in early January. He still has a small but real shot even after a brutally stupid covid response. He'd be favored to win on a world without a pandemic or other equivalently large problem, probably. 50/50 at worst.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:44
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If we weren’t going to be hitting the top of the third covid peak literally days before the election I would be nervous.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:44
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Lol if you haven't had anxiety dreams about the vote margin in the tipping point state being down to seven votes, just lmao
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Oct 12, 2020 19:47
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/12/sign-biden-fire-farm/ A farmer made a giant Biden-Harris sign out of hay bales. It was set on fire the next day.
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Oct 12, 2020 19:53
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Pick posted:I'm talking EC, sadly the popular vote really doesn't matter. I cant find back that far but in early June, the earliest I can find, Biden was ahead +6 in the popular and predicted to win the EC with 323 votes on 538. I don't think the 'anyone running against Trump in February was a dead man walking' is rational given that Biden was already polling well even then.
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Oct 12, 2020 20:02
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If I recall, pretty much the whole time the numbers for whoever was gonna get the nomination seemed good. Bernie and Biden did the best, again, if I remember.
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Oct 12, 2020 20:04
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Murgos posted:I cant find back that far but in early June, the earliest I can find, Biden was ahead +6 in the popular and predicted to win the EC with 323 votes on 538. I don't think the 'anyone running against Trump in February was a dead man walking' is rational given that Biden was already polling well even then. I didn't say June though, I said January. Pre-pandemic (or before it surpassed expectations). I think the race was radically different before that and no one foresaw it.
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Oct 12, 2020 20:06
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Personal favorables don't mean anyone's going to vote for you. #1/#2 favorables in 2016 were Kasich/Bernie and neither got particularly close. But high favorables make you harder to actually attack when you're competitive.
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Oct 12, 2020 20:06
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