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Play posted:3 QBs and you literally can't trust a single one of them. such a shame Nah, not a shame. Spoeank posted:I'm not making excuses for James because he didn't look good in the Arizona game but I don't think his ankle is right yet Yeah, he was playing on a bum wheel for sure.
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Oct 12, 2020 06:06
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Still lolling at that game. And the Roller-coaster of Emotions that was Seahawks Twitter.
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Oct 12, 2020 06:17
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Papercut posted:How the gently caress did minnesota lose that game lmao. I had to leave after the interception and then turn it back on just in time to see the 4th down td and I'm just like smdh. A few different things about that game: 1) the entire thing changed when Dalvin Cook went out with a hamstring. He was dominating the game, especially just taking checkdowns and screens but also running the ball. The Seahawks could not do a single thing to stop him, and their offense was all wonky in that first half too. When he went out, Minnesota got away from the run game that was treating them so well and didn't realize that Mattison is a really good running back in his own right. They got back to the run later in the game (Mattison ended up with more ground yards than Cook ,112) and he was great, but in the meantime Kirk had some trouble with the dropback passing game, threw a pick and had some three and outs and the Seahawks started scoring. 2) When the Vikings were only up 13 to start the second half I thought they were gonna lose. They had dominated that game but only got 13 points out of it, a sum Russell Wilson ended up erasing in half a quarter. The Vikings came back valiantly and seemed to have it sewn up but then they failed on 4th down instead of kicking a field goal that would have won them the game. That decision is definitely going to be analyzed quite a bit. They wanted to run out the game but if they had gotten the field goal there it would've been nearly impossible for the Seahawks to come back. With Mattison rushing for 5.6 yards per carry I guess you'd be forgiven for thinking he could pick up a half a yard on fourth down, but you take the kick there and the game is literally out of reach. So I do not think that was a great decision, I love going for it on 4th down but sometimes points are more important. That fourth down stop allowing the Seahawks to take possession and drive for a touchdown was definitely the biggest turning point of the game. Play fucked around with this message at 06:33 on Oct 12, 2020 |
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Oct 12, 2020 06:31
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I really don't see a problem with the 4th down call, literally 1 yard wins the game. If you kick the FG, you're still only up one possession and the kickoff gives Russ a shorter field than the 94 yards, so it's hardly an automatic game-ender.
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Oct 12, 2020 06:39
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Play posted:With Mattison rushing for 5.6 yards per carry I guess you'd be forgiven for thinking he could pick up a half a yard on fourth down, but you take the kick there and the game is literally out of reach. So I do not think that was a great decision, I love going for it on 4th down but sometimes points are more important. That fourth down stop allowing the Seahawks to take possession and drive for a touchdown was definitely the biggest turning point of the game. Wtf are you talking about. Kicking the field goal does not equal “the game is literally out of reach”. It would still be a one score game. The Vikings run game had dominated the entire match. You 100% go for it on fourth there.
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Oct 12, 2020 06:51
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TURGID TOMFOOLERY posted:Wtf are you talking about. Kicking the field goal does not equal “the game is literally out of reach”. It would still be a one score game. My dude if they take the points there the Seahawks need a two point conversion just to TIE THE GAME I'm sorry but I'd rather take the points, kickoff to put your opponent with the whole field to go, and let them try and score a touchdown and a two point conversion with limited time left just to go to overtime. Those seem like good odds to me
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Oct 12, 2020 07:18
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The defense has been on the field like all game and are exhausted, you're grabbing like 7 yards per run average, you've completed multiple 4th and 1s already. It was the right call.
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Oct 12, 2020 07:51
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Add the fact that the Vikings have been pressuring Russ all night and the weather was bad, making long ball less likely but required with 94 yards in under 2 minutes. Hell, even with rwbs, it took two long fourth down conversions to close it out. I would have gone for that 4th and 1 10 out of 10 times.
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Oct 12, 2020 15:40
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Lifespan posted:Add the fact that the Vikings have been pressuring Russ all night and the weather was bad, making long ball less likely but required with 94 yards in under 2 minutes. Hell, even with rwbs, it took two long fourth down conversions to close it out. I would have gone for that 4th and 1 10 out of 10 times. Exactly. Just because it didn't work out doesn't mean it wasn't the correct call. Edit: and if anyone brings up the super bowl again I swear to god
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Oct 12, 2020 15:44
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https://twitter.com/MikeDugar/status/1315503157904957441 WHY CANT MY COACH BE NORMAL
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Oct 12, 2020 17:51
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I mean... they are pretty fun, but I wouldn't mind the Seahawks blowing out a team here or there.
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Oct 12, 2020 17:53
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Lol at the aggressively conservative posters itt kicking the field goal from hindsight.
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Oct 12, 2020 17:55
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Hashtag MV3 RWBS put it in my veins
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Oct 12, 2020 17:58
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I think either call is good but going for it is a little gooder
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Oct 12, 2020 18:05
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Its Rinaldo posted:I just imagine Russ is a space marine and transpose all Jesus metions to The God Emperor of Man This is legit pretty cool. He's still a dweeb who passes too much.
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Oct 12, 2020 18:52
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He was not a good quarterback, but former 49ers great JT O'Sullivan has been doing QB breakdowns each week, and his videos on Russell Wilson are very cool and good. Also, I guess the other quarterbacks. I like that he's able to do some cool breakdowns just using broadcast copy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48XC2O0J5Ug
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Oct 13, 2020 00:16
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Schwack posted:He was not a good quarterback, but former 49ers great JT O'Sullivan has been doing QB breakdowns each week, and his videos on Russell Wilson are very cool and good. Also, I guess the other quarterbacks. I like that he's able to do some cool breakdowns just using broadcast copy. That was actually very interesting. I totally missed how excellent Homer's protection was on that last drive.
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Oct 13, 2020 00:43
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In addition to all the insane plays made on the last drive I'd like to also marvel at the brass balls Wilson has to throw a bunch of balls away in that series instead of freaking out and taking a bad risk He's always been good about that but it must be incredibly difficult to decide on that in a game winning drive
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Oct 13, 2020 00:55
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algebra testes posted:Still lolling at that game. https://twitter.com/intelsebastian/status/1315493057177899010?s=21
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Oct 13, 2020 00:57
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Peachfart posted:Exactly. Just because it didn't work out doesn't mean it wasn't the correct call. I LOVE going for it on 4th but not in situations like this where you are potentially sacrificing points that could change the whole complexion of the game. Most teams do not go for 4th downs when they are in field goal range, they take field goals. Points are how you win football games and passing them up is rarely a good idea especially with the math available at that point which would've forced an absolutely superhuman effort from the Hawks offense. Basically they were so sure they could get it and close out the game that they invited the potential of RWBS into their lives, which is ALWAYS a bad idea. And if you have to allow that potential, at least make it so he has to be literally PERFECT to even tie you. Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:Lol at the aggressively conservative posters itt kicking the field goal from hindsight. Nope I watched the game live and I was saying the same thing. So even if I'm wrong, welp, the Vikings chose otherwise and we all saw what happened. quote:Courtney Cronin, the ESPN Vikings reporter, tweeted out similar numbers. She noted that ESPN's win probability model had the Vikings with a 98-percent chance to win by going for it, and that they would have had a 97.8-percent chance to win had they elected to attempt a field goal. So the math describes a .2% difference in win probability between the two options. That's incredibly weak and in that situation I'm going with my gut. I absolutely respect everyone who says otherwise, basically this means the two choices are essentially equal so your own feeling about the game should be your guide. No team including the Vikings are immune to being stuffed on 4th and 1. Basically it boils down to this: I think the chances of the Seahawks driving down from their own 25 with about a minute left to get a touchdown AND a two point conversion and THEN winning in overtime is a lesser overall chance than the chance the Vikings get stuffed on 4th and 1, something that happens to NFL teams dozens upon dozens of times each season. And yes that includes the small chance of a missed kick.
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Oct 13, 2020 03:19
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Play posted:So the math describes a .2% difference in win probability between the two options. That's incredibly weak and in that situation I'm going with my gut. I absolutely respect everyone who says otherwise, basically this means the two choices are essentially equal so your own feeling about the game should be your guide. No team including the Vikings are immune to being stuffed on 4th and 1. You know what else no teams are immune to, especially the Vikings? Missing “gimme” field goals.
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Oct 13, 2020 04:07
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I was going to say, against any other team, I think you go for it, but against the Seahawks, you kick the field goal... If you're any other team but the Vikings. That being said, a missed field goal is no different than a missed 4th down conversion in that case.
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Oct 13, 2020 04:50
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While I still think the Vikings made the right call, there is no doubt that no other team will try that against the Seahawks this season.
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Oct 13, 2020 04:54
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YOLOsubmarine posted:You know what else no teams are immune to, especially the Vikings? Missing “gimme” field goals. True, but I would say the chances of a missed field goal from the 6 yard line is well under three percent, although I'm not going to do the research to confirm that. Most kickers are around 90% from anywhere on the field much less the 6 yard line. Looking into it, in ALL of the 2020 season so far only one kicker has missed a field goal closer than the 29 yard line and NO ONE has missed a field goal inside the 19. So yeah I feel relatively comfortable with those odds. You're right, this is the Vikings we're talking about, but that applies equally to their offense failing on 4th and 1 as it does their kicker missing a gimme Finger Prince posted:I was going to say, against any other team, I think you go for it, but against the Seahawks, you kick the field goal... If you're any other team but the Vikings. That being said, a missed field goal is no different than a missed 4th down conversion in that case. Russell Wilson bullshit definitely takes pride of place in this pet theory of mine. I've seen it too many times to be surprised by it at this point, so my option opts to respect the possibility and make it as difficult as possible. The math says the choice is essentially a wash so it really comes down to how you view each team.
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Oct 13, 2020 05:04
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Finger Prince posted:I was going to say, against any other team, I think you go for it, but against the Seahawks, you kick the field goal... If you're any other team but the Vikings. That being said, a missed field goal is no different than a missed 4th down conversion in that case. A missed field goal gives the Seahawks the ball at the 20 instead of the 6, so they aren’t the same. Also the difference between a made field goal and a made 1st down are that 1st down ends the game, the field goal leaves the Seahawks 2 minutes to drive 75 yards. Again, if you’re terrified of Wilson you want to keep the ball out of his hands, not give him 2 minutes to tie the game and then more chances in overtime. Anyone who thinks playing it safe against the Seahawks is the right move should be forced to watch the last quarter of the 2014 NFC Championship on repeat with their eyes taped open like a Clockwork Orange. YOLOsubmarine fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Oct 13, 2020 |
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Oct 13, 2020 05:14
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YOLOsubmarine posted:Anyone who thinks playing it safe against the Seahawks is the right move should be forced to watch the last quarter of the 2014 NFC Championship on repeat with their eyes taped open like a Clockwork Orange. I was pissed off about 90% of that game, but the end made it all worth it. Also Jon Ryan throwing a touchdown was loving awesome.
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Oct 13, 2020 05:33
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YOLOsubmarine posted:A missed field goal gives the Seahawks the ball at the 20 instead of the 6, so they aren’t the same. Also the difference between a made field goal and a made 1st down are that 1st down ends the game, the field goal leaves the Seahawks 2 minutes to drive 75 yards. On drives starting inside the opposing 30, Vikings opponents have scored touchdowns 16.1% of the time (https://stathead.com/tiny/g0qdN), the 2pt conversion rate is about 50% and the chance of winning in OT is 50%. Kicking the FG would've give the Vikings a 96% to win the game, slightly higher than the 95% chance (given the historical rate of the Vikings allowing a team to score starting inside their own 10 yard line) that going for it gave them.
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Oct 13, 2020 06:34
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MakaVillian posted:On drives starting inside the opposing 30, Vikings opponents have scored touchdowns 16.1% of the time (https://stathead.com/tiny/g0qdN), the 2pt conversion rate is about 50% and the chance of winning in OT is 50%. Kicking the FG would've give the Vikings a 96% to win the game, slightly higher than the 95% chance (given the historical rate of the Vikings allowing a team to score starting inside their own 10 yard line) that going for it gave them. Russell Wilson is a better QB than the average Vikings opponent. The Vikings have a bottom 3rd defense and a top 3 rushing attack. The Seahawks have a middling defense and a top 3 QB. “Should we trust our very good rushing attack to pick up one yard against a struggling Seahawks defense and end the game right there? Nah, much safer to bet on Russell Wilson not pulling off some insane bullshit to win the game. I mean, how often does that happen?”
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Oct 13, 2020 06:46
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Like, I get it. You want to get the points, always kick, etc. But this is Russell 'loving' Wilson. He lives for bullshit 4th quarter heroics and does impossible poo poo almost every single game. You do not want him getting the ball with 2 minutes left if you are only up by a single score.
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Oct 13, 2020 06:52
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I don't think either decision is bad. One thing to consider is that the rain was making it tough on both sides, and to force Russ to get a 2pt conversion isn't a guarantee. Heck, they went for 2 on the offchance the Vikings drove it down the field to kick a FG and weren't able to convert. By that decision I probably would have gone for the field goal. And yes, a FG from a Vikings kicker isn't guaranteed either!
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Oct 13, 2020 07:12
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MakaVillian posted:On drives starting inside the opposing 30, Vikings opponents have scored touchdowns 16.1% of the time (https://stathead.com/tiny/g0qdN), SINCE 2001 lmao
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Oct 13, 2020 07:13
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seiferguy posted:I don't think either decision is bad. One thing to consider is that the rain was making it tough on both sides, and to force Russ to get a 2pt conversion isn't a guarantee. Heck, they went for 2 on the offchance the Vikings drove it down the field to kick a FG and weren't able to convert. By that decision I probably would have gone for the field goal. This is basically confirmed by the math saying there's a .2% difference in win probability between the two choices; essentially a wash all else being equal. I absolutely get going for it under the circumstances, but I also see the logic in just taking the points and extending the game. hifi posted:SINCE 2001 lmao Very true, this Vikings defense is historically bad for their standards. But, that math also doesn't take into account that there was like a minute and change left and limited time outs. Hell even Russ had to conquer a 4th and ten AND a 4th a goal on the way. I suppose we're really talking about the difference between 98% and 97.8%.... at the end of the day no matter what the Vikings chose they absolutely should've won that game. But they didn't. Play fucked around with this message at 08:15 on Oct 13, 2020 |
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Oct 13, 2020 08:12
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YOLOsubmarine posted:You know what else no teams are immune to, especially the Vikings? Missing “gimme” field goals. I also woke up this morning thinking about the blair walsh missed field goal.
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Oct 13, 2020 09:55
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hifi posted:SINCE 2001 lmao Ha, good catch. Kicking the FG was the incorrect decision. Going for it was the correct decision.
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Oct 13, 2020 16:40
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I think both decisions were incorrect. They should have faked a FG. HOW ABOUT THAT!
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Oct 13, 2020 16:48
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Everyone always focuses on how games end. The correct decision was to win the game during the entire game, so they didn't have to win the game in the last two minutes.
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Oct 13, 2020 18:06
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hifi posted:SINCE 2001 lmao Sample size. To clarify, I don't hate that they went for it (I would've called a sneak instead) but I still take the points and force RWBS to do the following: score a TD, as well as a 2pt conversion and hope to either win the OT coin toss or hold the Vikings to an FG or punt and then score on their own. MakaVillian fucked around with this message at 19:00 on Oct 13, 2020 |
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Oct 13, 2020 18:52
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MakaVillian posted:Yeah it's called sample size since 2001 they've had 5 coaches and their defenses have ranked from 1st overall (2017) to 28th (2004). some times you just don't have enough of a sample size and you have to deal with it.
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Oct 13, 2020 18:55
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Look at all you footbaw data sciencemancers.
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Oct 13, 2020 19:03
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I love how there are more people upset about the Vikings playcalling in the NFC West thread than the NFC North thread where it barely got mentioned.
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Oct 13, 2020 19:07
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