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movax
Aug 30, 2008

FistEnergy posted:

https://twitter.com/HindenburgRes/status/1315744452330377216?s=19

Step right up! Get your puts ready! Who's going to be the next $NKLA? $SPAQ? $WKHS? Find out tomorrow, pray that it isn't in your garbage portfolio!

:munch:

If they could poo poo on $SPCE before 1/15/21 that would be great, tia.

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pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1316072541115486210?s=20

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


https://twitter.com/R_Perli/status/1316102557161476096?s=20

VGLT and TLT outperforming QQQ today, just sayin'

FreelanceSocialist
Nov 19, 2002
Eli Lilly vaccine trial paused. Shares down. Overreaction, in my opinion. This is a pretty standard thing any time you have any kind of "adverse event" in a trial, regardless of the cause of the event.

Smythe
Oct 12, 2003

fart simpson posted:

try on fngu for size, op

hachi machi

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Does anyone use a high-beta strategy in your portfolio as a substitute for leverage?

Like, some ETFs (e.g. ARKK, BUG, THNQ) are (/waves hand) high-beta compared to a tech benchmark like QQQ. So you can get outperformance without volatility drag of a leveraged ETF or theta decay of options. I'm really digging that as a small sector play.

AHH F/UGH
May 25, 2002

Got out of my JPM position at a solid +$0.00. At least I didn't get eaten alive.

I entered at HYLN 10/23 $25p position. Basically I'm just going to try and scrape up some extra coin until around 10/27 or so before going all-in full YOLO mode on 2-3 month expiries on the VIX because I'm predicting a contested election and a big increase in volatility after Nov 3rd. Possibly even something like what we saw in March depending on how long Trump will try to drag it out or even try to invalidate the entire election/Biden win.

edit: Remember to inverse me btw because I am a verifiably terrible investor.

AHH F/UGH fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Oct 13, 2020

Inverted Icon
Apr 8, 2020

by Athanatos
I'm working up the gumption to get a Schwab account and take as big a bite as I can of the hydrogen economy

Am I a genius?

Mr. Mambold
Feb 13, 2011

Aha. Nice post.



Inverted Icon posted:

I'm working up the gumption to get a Schwab account and take as big a bite as I can of the hydrogen economy

Am I a genius?

You're a goddam genius.

In other news, I bought some SHLL+ warrants, and Ameritrade says they became HYLN+ warrants, and they still haven't received "instructions" from the "agent". Is this SOP? Or BS? TYVM

Chad Sexington
May 26, 2005

I think he made a beautiful post and did a great job and he is good.

Mr. Mambold posted:

You're a goddam genius.

In other news, I bought some SHLL+ warrants, and Ameritrade says they became HYLN+ warrants, and they still haven't received "instructions" from the "agent". Is this SOP? Or BS? TYVM

In my experience brokers are usual dumb and bad as it concerns all things SPAC.

Also holy poo poo, those warrants are down to $10!? Glad I punted mine.

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe
I'm making steady gains from blue chip stocks while we're still collectively ignoring the looming covid 2nd wave. By the end of October I plan on being mostly in PSTH, which should be nearing their (hopefully!) major merger announcement. It's still pretty close to NAV and one of the best safe places to park money with good nearterm upside IMO.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


FistEnergy posted:

I'm making steady gains from blue chip stocks while we're still collectively ignoring the looming covid 2nd wave. By the end of October I plan on being mostly in PSTH, which should be nearing their (hopefully!) major merger announcement. It's still pretty close to NAV and one of the best safe places to park money with good nearterm upside IMO.

did you just unironically refer to a blank check SPAC -- with no announced target -- as a safe place to park money or am I missing some joke here

jokes
Dec 20, 2012

Uh... Kupo?

FistEnergy posted:

I'm making steady gains from blue chip stocks while we're still collectively ignoring the looming covid 2nd wave.

That's my thing too. I've been leaning on bonds now for a bit as a consequence.

DoubleT2172
Sep 24, 2007

pmchem posted:

did you just unironically refer to a blank check SPAC -- with no announced target -- as a safe place to park money or am I missing some joke here

BILL ACKMAN™

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe

pmchem posted:

did you just unironically refer to a blank check SPAC -- with no announced target -- as a safe place to park money or am I missing some joke here

It's near-NAV with a huge bankroll (much larger than other SPACs) that's targeting a whale with public name recognition, which will generate mainstream press and interest. Near-NAV SPAC commons are very safe. Warrants are a whole different story. They have no NAV and thus no price floor.

I'm expecting a merger target announcement in November.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


FistEnergy posted:

It's near-NAV with a huge bankroll (much larger than other SPACs) that's targeting a whale with public name recognition, which will generate mainstream press and interest. Near-NAV SPAC commons are very safe. Warrants are a whole different story. They have no NAV and thus no price floor.

I'm expecting a merger target announcement in November.

honest question -- what happens if they announce a target that is a so-so company and they're paying too much for it? you're saying a SPAC is risk-free pre-merger?

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


in non-SPAC chat, anyone here ever buy/trade bonds? I'm talking individual bonds, not bond funds/etfs.

It recently came to my attention that Tesla bonds are rated junk. This seems silly, as they could EASILY issue common stock to cover any bond payments they need and I don't see that changing in the next 5 years. But I do see their bonds being rated investment-grade within that time frame.

So if TSLA bonds aren't already trading at IG yields (dunno, haven't looked), isn't there money to be made here by buying them now and waiting for their price (not yield; I'm talking price of the individual bond) to go up?

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe

pmchem posted:

honest question -- what happens if they announce a target that is a so-so company and they're paying too much for it? you're saying a SPAC is risk-free pre-merger?

If I don't like the target I'll sell my commons. SPAC commons have a soft price floor up until a specified pre-merger date, because if they fail to merge at the end of the SPAC period (usually 2 years) then common holders are reimbursed plus interest. This is the NAV. For most SPACs it's about $10.50 including interest; for PSTH it's about $21. So if you buy commons near NAV, your downside is significantly reduced and the main drawback is the opportunity cost.

Once the merger target is announced and things start getting official via LOIs and legal filings, warrants can become a better option with potentially higher returns if they're priced at a discount to commons. But they come with no reimbursement and thus no NAV. It's Buyer Beware.

FistEnergy fucked around with this message at 02:08 on Oct 14, 2020

Foma
Oct 1, 2004
Hello, My name is Lip Synch. Right now, I'm making a post that is anti-bush or something Micheal Moore would be proud of because I and the rest of my team lefty friends (koba1t included) need something to circle jerk to.
Moving big into natural gas and oil. See if it turns back up in 2021 or if Biden kills me.

MomJeans420
Mar 19, 2007



pmchem posted:

It recently came to my attention that Tesla bonds are rated junk. This seems silly, as they could EASILY issue common stock to cover any bond payments they need and I don't see that changing in the next 5 years. But I do see their bonds being rated investment-grade within that time frame.

So if TSLA bonds aren't already trading at IG yields (dunno, haven't looked), isn't there money to be made here by buying them now and waiting for their price (not yield; I'm talking price of the individual bond) to go up?

I think it depends on how long you think this meme stock craze will last. If their stock is up 875% compared to a year ago for no real reason, I don't see any reason it can't be down 875% in another year, let alone five, which may affect the "just issue stock to cover payments" thesis.

I'm not a bond guy but I did have this thread saved by a TSLAQ guy who's really into bonds. Without re-reading the whole thing it was something about the bonds being secured by the residual value of leased vehicles, but their resale value is a huge unknown. Especially considering the price cuts they've had to do repeatedly to keep the "deliveries" numbers up.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1288234791607906305.html

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe

Foma posted:

Moving big into natural gas and oil. See if it turns back up in 2021 or if Biden kills me.

I was looking into putting $1000 on 12/2020 PCG calls last Friday and I decided to think about it over the weekend. Then the latest fatal fire liability announcement came after close.

My favorite trades are the bad ones I dodge by sheer luck

movax
Aug 30, 2008

Inverted Icon posted:

I'm working up the gumption to get a Schwab account and take as big a bite as I can of the hydrogen economy

Am I a genius?

I'm so confused by the hydrogen action, honestly. I'm working on a hydrogen-powered system right now and the number of truly legitimate companies and an appropriate valuation is appallingly small. Personally, I think the refueling and infrastructure side is the one currently the most ripe for disruption. There are decent stack systems and module systems out there that work, but to the best of my knowledge, no one has truly cracked the ease-of-use / product offering for actually supplying the hydrogen, even in 'fixed' environments where hydrogen can excel (centralized motor pools like bus depots, docks, etc., where you only need one location).

But hey, this market doesn't operate on reason, so... gently caress me, right?

dougdrums
Feb 25, 2005
CLIENT REQUESTED ELECTRONIC FUNDING RECEIPT (FUNDS NOW)

FistEnergy posted:

I was looking into putting $1000 on 12/2020 PCG calls last Friday and I decided to think about it over the weekend. Then the latest fatal fire liability announcement came after close.

My favorite trades are the bad ones I dodge by sheer luck
I remember trying to write out a post in response to your previous one about PCG but I deleted it because I couldn't figure out how to not come across as a dick. lmao glad that worked itself out.

orange sky
May 7, 2007

https://twitter.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1316147305125490694

OK so how do I play this, SPCE friday puts?

AHH F/UGH
May 25, 2002

Is this how Gravity starts

Is Sandra Bullock in space right now

Smythe
Oct 12, 2003

Foma posted:

Moving big into natural gas and oil. See if it turns back up in 2021 or if Biden kills me.

poo poo sucked recently. Moved out of all my Planet Destroyer Captain Pollution positions.

Smythe
Oct 12, 2003

Now that's paper

AHH F/UGH
May 25, 2002

Guess where I got my puts

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1316468238579118086?s=20

joe's great

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog
That was an odd, high volume drop for CRTX

Hope there hasn't been some kind of Bad News leak :negative:

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1316454051693895680?s=19

Nice margins

drunken officeparty
Aug 23, 2006


Is that a price increase or a decrease

decypher
Aug 23, 2003

Who else see da leprechaun say yaaaa!
FSLY down almost 30% after hours, drat. It usually follows a consistent pattern, but it has elected to jump out the window this time.

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G

drunken officeparty posted:

Is that a price increase or a decrease

Its a reduction but I was making a joke.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Is McConnell still demanding any stimulus includes that removal of covid liabilities for businesses?

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


pmchem posted:

Does anyone use a high-beta strategy in your portfolio as a substitute for leverage?

Like, some ETFs (e.g. ARKK, BUG, THNQ) are (/waves hand) high-beta compared to a tech benchmark like QQQ. So you can get outperformance without volatility drag of a leveraged ETF or theta decay of options. I'm really digging that as a small sector play.

I think joe is reading my posts


https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1316472054359654413

Foma
Oct 1, 2004
Hello, My name is Lip Synch. Right now, I'm making a post that is anti-bush or something Micheal Moore would be proud of because I and the rest of my team lefty friends (koba1t included) need something to circle jerk to.
EPD, BSM, CEQP-, XOM, and an earlier buy of VDE which I now regret and wish I focused in on something. I might tax loss harvest it and move it into one of those 4.

movax
Aug 30, 2008

decypher posted:

FSLY down almost 30% after hours, drat. It usually follows a consistent pattern, but it has elected to jump out the window this time.

I exited it last week, the TikTok thing reminded me how much it was pumped up so after it recovered I figured what the hell. What made it poo poo this time?

Zypher
Sep 3, 2009

Rutgers

Your 2006
Mythical National
Champions!
Basically, the TikTok thing.

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Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal

GoGoGadgetChris posted:

The prophecy of "Four Presidents In A Single Year" will begin!

If timed right it can be a single month.

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