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bollig posted:hrm mods, new thread title
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Oct 2, 2020 23:24
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Deepened my position in no dropout earlier when everyone was waiting for Trump to get on the helicopter
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Oct 3, 2020 02:10
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A+ move not touching that market because how fast bojo collapsed but i agree with your logic
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Oct 3, 2020 02:20
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even tho its an extreme longshot pence was so cheap i couldnt help but toss some dosh on it. if it pays out drat we buying mcds filet o fishes for the whole neighborh00d =O
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Oct 3, 2020 19:33
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Smythe posted:even tho its an extreme longshot pence was so cheap i couldnt help but toss some dosh on it. if it pays out drat we buying mcds filet o fishes for the whole neighborh00d =O It doesn't matter how cheap it is if it's not undervalued. Pence running is correctly valued or maybe even overvalued because they would be so unlikely to change the ticket even if Trump died today and it becomes less likely with each day that passes. Plus even 9% is a generous chance of Trump dying or being incapacitated
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Oct 3, 2020 19:46
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Jewel Repetition posted:It doesn't matter how cheap it is if it's not undervalued. Pence running is correctly valued or maybe even overvalued because they would be so unlikely to change the ticket even if Trump died today and it becomes less likely with each day that passes. Plus even 9% is a generous chance of Trump dying or being incapacitated Nice made up words and poo poo. gently caress off
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Oct 3, 2020 19:58
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dont need to do spectral calculus to make an epic bet on the testicle electrocutor to become potus. go back to nerd camp
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Oct 3, 2020 19:59
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lmfao buying pence at .09
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Oct 3, 2020 20:53
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https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1312398581194784768 Actuarial data seems to suggest that Trump has a 50/50 chance of surviving now that he's hospitalized and a 3 day period in between testing positive and needing oxygen is a pretty grim sign. Considering his pre-Covid odds were ~45%, I like "no" at 64 cents.
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Oct 3, 2020 21:12
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Smythe posted:dont need to do spectral calculus to make an epic bet on the testicle electrocutor to become potus. go back to nerd camp Sir, this is the thread for hucksters, flim-flam men, inhabitants of the House of the Rising Sun, and crooks
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Oct 4, 2020 03:40
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There is an interesting market up for the number of ballots returned in Florida by October 9th: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6913/How-many-mail-in-votes-reported-in-Florida-at-11-am-on-Oct-9 A professor from UF is doing some data aggregation and visualization here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html Current total is around 571k returned.
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Oct 5, 2020 14:36
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not touching that
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Oct 5, 2020 15:18
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Here's my elite pro idea. Trump is probably gonna fail to be discharged tomorrow, or be rehospitalized. So I could sell my dropout Nos right now, make a 10% profit, then buy them up again right when that happens and ride them to the payout on Nov 1st
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Oct 5, 2020 19:41
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he's leaving! lol
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Oct 5, 2020 19:44
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i say swears online posted:he's leaving! lol I still expect there to be some kind of scare before it's over based on the corticosteroid he took and the quick discharge
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Oct 5, 2020 20:11
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You can now bet on Trump dragging things out: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6906/Will-Trump-or-Biden-personally-concede-defeat-within-two-weeks-of-Election-Dayquote:This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that either President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden concedes that a candidate other than himself has won the 2020 general election for U.S. President, and does so no later than the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s determination shall be based on either of the following: a) a public, unconditional and unambiguous concession by Trump himself or Biden himself or b) media reports, that PredictIt in its sole discretion deems reliable, of an unconditional and unambiguous concession by either candidate personally.
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Oct 6, 2020 05:17
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ShadowHawk posted:You can now bet on Trump dragging things out: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6906/Will-Trump-or-Biden-personally-concede-defeat-within-two-weeks-of-Election-Day Lol
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Oct 6, 2020 07:05
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I had placed some bets after the debate figuring that things would tighten back up, boy oh boy was I unprepared for October 2020.
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Oct 7, 2020 16:17
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Rationally I should buy some Biden.President.YES but Trump's magic, and the weirdness of the year, and the pendulum all make me too scared to
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Oct 8, 2020 23:13
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Tip for anyone playing the presidential winner: the market's inflated so buying NO for the candidate who'll lose is cheaper than buying YES for the candidate who'll win. Which is extra crazy-because NO for the loser covers more possibilities (like Trump or Biden dying)
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Oct 13, 2020 01:06
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Does NO cover the election going to the House or is that in the terms?
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Oct 13, 2020 01:40
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Grandpa Palpatine posted:Does NO cover the election going to the House or is that in the terms? The rules don't specify, but based on how Predictit has handled other odd situations, it's safe to assume whoever was made president by the House would be considered the Winner
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Oct 13, 2020 02:51
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things have re-tightened a bit, good time to get in on trump NOs across the board at decent prices
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Oct 13, 2020 11:36
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i say swears online posted:things have re-tightened a bit, good time to get in on trump NOs across the board at decent prices who the gently caress thinks the race is tightening lol
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Oct 13, 2020 12:27
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there's tons of magamoney out there ripe for the plucking
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Oct 13, 2020 12:36
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dex_sda posted:who the gently caress thinks the race is tightening lol As we close in on the end of October I expect prices to continue to tighten as casual players stream in. When October ends and some big free money markets (e.g., will Hillary run, Biden drop out, etc.) pay out then things will probably shift back the other way as the smart money triples down. Halloween is your time to buy! Assuming Biden doesn't die on live TV at the last debate! Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 21:42 on Oct 13, 2020 |
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Oct 13, 2020 21:37
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he did just fine at the only and final debate two weeks ago
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Oct 13, 2020 21:46
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Vox Nihili posted:As we close in on the end of October I expect prices to continue to tighten as casual players stream in. When October ends and some big free money markets (e.g., will Hillary run, Biden drop out, etc.) pay out then things will probably shift back the other way as the smart money triples down. you're describing "winnowing" it happens in every election. poo poo gets tighter right before the polls open
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Oct 14, 2020 12:15
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doesn't winnowing only apply in primaries as candidates are eliminated
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Oct 14, 2020 12:24
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The market for when the election will be called seems like an easy no for November 3 doesn't it? Maybe I just don't understand how to bet?
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Oct 14, 2020 19:42
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net work error posted:The market for when the election will be called seems like an easy no for November 3 doesn't it? Maybe I just don't understand how to bet? Pennsylvania and Wisconsin probably won't be counted before midnight, but I suppose there's a chance that Biden wins Texas and Florida by midnight at which point he's pretty clearly won the whole thing
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Oct 14, 2020 19:57
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net work error posted:The market for when the election will be called seems like an easy no for November 3 doesn't it? Maybe I just don't understand how to bet? If it's a blowout and both networks call it. Fox called it at 11:15 pm in 2012 and 2:45 am in 2016. Its probably easy money, PA and WI don't even process their mail in ballots until election day and Michigan only starts the day before. WI and MI are at ~25% of the total votes from 2016 being either mail in or early according to US Elections Project; PA is only 8%.
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Oct 14, 2020 20:13
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net work error posted:The market for when the election will be called seems like an easy no for November 3 doesn't it? Maybe I just don't understand how to bet? IMHO this is essentially a bet on how close you think Florida/N. Carolina are going to be. I am basically going to be f'5ing sumter county returns on the night of. If it's roughly/slightly worse than where Trump was 4 years ago, then I'd bet no on Nov 3rd.
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Oct 14, 2020 23:13
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net work error posted:The market for when the election will be called seems like an easy no for November 3 doesn't it? Maybe I just don't understand how to bet? nah it usually always happens as people have to make up their minds and there isn't an overwhelmingly terrible candidate* *who doesn't have a brainwashed cult base
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Oct 15, 2020 01:40
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can we put in the OP of the thread the literal first sentence as: DO NOT BET MONEY YOU CANNOT LIGHT ON FIRE AND THROW AWAY i know the warning is there in the OP but it's kind of buried in a wall of text i feel like a moral scold but i think we ran into this issue before and hopefully that would make someone think twice when clicking on this thread and wanting to bet money they cant afford to lose
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Oct 15, 2020 02:27
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also predict poo poo is not regulated and can just decide to keep your money.
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Oct 15, 2020 03:06
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Biden Drop out keeps taking slaps due to these email drops, nice to squeeze a little extra out of a free money market
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Oct 15, 2020 16:41
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The Chad Jihad posted:Biden Drop out keeps taking slaps due to these email drops, nice to squeeze a little extra out of a free money market
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Oct 15, 2020 17:03
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Elephanthead posted:also predict poo poo is not regulated and can just decide to keep your money. They can, but it's extremely unlikely they would because it's against their interests. In fact I'd bet money on it 
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Oct 15, 2020 20:11
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| # ? Jun 10, 2024 20:02 |
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I have evolved past PredictIt and placed the following $5 moneyline bets on Bovada that the following states will go Biden (the cowards will not let me parlay these): NC -120 IA +140 FL (EVEN) AZ -135 GA +130 TX +265
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Oct 23, 2020 03:56
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