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Pryor on Fire
May 14, 2013

they don't know all alien abduction experiences can be explained by people thinking saving private ryan was a documentary

10 days out is a completely worthless prediction for a storm track or strength prediction, don't waste your time reading that nonsense from lovely local clickbait media. It's like reading National Enquirer if you see a 10-12 day line.

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BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

FAUXTON posted:

Lol a giant hurricane sitting between west palm beach and the bahamas for 3 weeks would be on point for 2020

I love the track that just decides to turbofuck Hampton Roads, a geographic area that has done ZERO meaningful preparation for hurricanes because they've been lulled into a 30+ year false sense of security.

If anything, they've followed Houston's example and overdeveloped, robbing the area (which is a giant subsidence crater thanks to a ~3km wide asteroid paying a visit ~35.5mya) of valuable storm-surge-absorbing wetlands. Even *outside* the impact crater, the ground is glorified sand.

For those who just want more info on the asteroid, though: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesapeake_Bay_impact_crater

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Pryor on Fire posted:

10 days out is a completely worthless prediction for a storm track or strength prediction, don't waste your time reading that nonsense from lovely local clickbait media. It's like reading National Enquirer if you see a 10-12 day line.
Right, the models are just suggesting that there are two areas of potential activity to watch for, but as far as location and such, there is just no way to know. Models are really not good before a system actually forms.

Pryor on Fire
May 14, 2013

they don't know all alien abduction experiences can be explained by people thinking saving private ryan was a documentary

All hurricane forecasts 10 or 12 or 15 days out are horseshit. Just consult a random horoscope instead, it will likely be more accurate. Even 7 days is getting into sketch territory.

Pryor on Fire has issued a correction as of 04:58 on Oct 15, 2020

Giga Gaia
May 2, 2006

360 kickflip to... Meteo?!

Egg Moron posted:

I feel like even though this season has been active as hell, it hasn't been catastrophic enough to penetrate the insanity of everyday life in US America. Ending things with one gigantic gently caress you storm that rips right through Florida on the eve of the election, loving up voting completely and casting doubt forever on the results of the election would be wild.

drat near the ideal cspam outcome to 2020

Rev. Bleech_
Oct 19, 2004

~OKAY, WE'LL DRINK TO OUR LEGS!~

BIG HEADLINE posted:

I love the track that just decides to turbofuck Hampton Roads, a geographic area that has done ZERO meaningful preparation for hurricanes because they've been lulled into a 30+ year false sense of security.

If anything, they've followed Houston's example and overdeveloped, robbing the area (which is a giant subsidence crater thanks to a ~3km wide asteroid paying a visit ~35.5mya) of valuable storm-surge-absorbing wetlands. Even *outside* the impact crater, the ground is glorified sand.

For those who just want more info on the asteroid, though: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesapeake_Bay_impact_crater

authorities reporting that groverhaus has collapsed from the model runs alone

silicone thrills
Jan 9, 2008

I paint things

Egg Moron posted:

quality content



https://twitter.com/sfdb/status/1316538967181926400?s=20

and lol still more storms

I feel like even though this season has been active as hell, it hasn't been catastrophic enough to penetrate the insanity of everyday life in US America. Ending things with one gigantic gently caress you storm that rips right through Florida on the eve of the election, loving up voting completely and casting doubt forever on the results of the election would be wild.

I have butterflys thinking about a hurricane hitting right through some rich florida boomer enclave on election day. Hopefully the Villages.

The Pussy Boss
Nov 2, 2004

It's not going so great in Colorado thanks to several days of high winds. The Cameron Peak fire looks like it's gonna burn right up to the edge of Fort Collins and Loveland. Those cities are probably not in danger but a lot of homes/small communities in the mountains could get wiped out

https://twitter.com/airscottdenning/status/1317457880996458497

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007
finally, more pumpkin spice sky

The Pussy Boss
Nov 2, 2004

Cameron Peak fire as seen from Estes Park:
https://twitter.com/Believer037/status/1317515906340294656

New fire popped up today in the mountains west of Boulder:
https://twitter.com/BrooksWeather/status/1317565022231408640

Zeno-25
Dec 5, 2009

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Hrmmm

Raine
Apr 30, 2013

ACCELERATIONIST SUPERDOOMER




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmWWePoYHYk

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



The one out in the Atlantic is supposed to meander for a bit and then go up north and stay away from land

The real question mark is that second one. The GFS shows something forming in the Southern Caribbean and moving NE, although it gets a little crazy past that. It's been pretty consistent in showing development for some time. However, the Euro still doesn't like that area for development. I just checked the last run again of the Euro and it's still showing no development. So who really knows at this point. We'll know more by mid-week.

fuckingtest
Mar 31, 2001

Just evolving, you know?
Right Here, Right Now.
So epsilon is a thing now.

Not going anywhere, but were about to meet 2005's hurricane count.

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



not looking forward to the three weeks of hurricane epsilon getting closer and closer to making landfall but never quite reaching land

Vesi
Jan 12, 2005

pikachu looking at?
I think epsilon will so small it barely exists

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

fuckingtest posted:

So epsilon is a thing now.

Not going anywhere, but were about to meet 2005's hurricane count.




I think theres a ways to go for the 05 records?

31/28/15 depression/storm/hurricanes in 05 and 27/26/9 right now. Depression and storm records might fall but another six hurricanes including Epsilon seems beyond even 2020's bullshit

e; also NOAA have it as large (300nmi), already showing eye development, and heading straight for Bermuda for a few days at least. Is everything fixed after Paulette?

Spangly A has issued a correction as of 00:35 on Oct 21, 2020

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Spangly A posted:

I think theres a ways to go for the 05 records?

31/28/15 depression/storm/hurricanes in 05 and 27/26/9 right now. Depression and storm records might fall but another six hurricanes including Epsilon seems beyond even 2020's bullshit

Not if the season extends into February because reasons.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



The track I saw at 5 PM has it staying far enough away from Bermuda that it's not going to do much there

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

Spangly A posted:

I think theres a ways to go for the 05 records?

31/28/15 depression/storm/hurricanes in 05 and 27/26/9 right now. Depression and storm records might fall but another six hurricanes including Epsilon seems beyond even 2020's bullshit

e; also NOAA have it as large (300nmi), already showing eye development, and heading straight for Bermuda for a few days at least. Is everything fixed after Paulette?

We need one more named storm to tie and Epsilon (2005) formed on Nov 29th

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

BIG HEADLINE posted:

Not if the season extends into February because reasons.

jan and feb go to 2021 surely

I mean, 2021 having exactly 16 atlantic storms but they're all major hurricanes and they all hit georgia would be whatever at this point.

Is anyone else interested in euro windstorms if anything alex-sized shows up again? I actually got to drive into it to satisfy my death wish. Got tagged as a potentially large storm shortly after spinning up on the 30th, underwent explosive deepening overnight, 969 mbar and 180kph winds within 12 hours. Flooded the UK and Italy at the same time, 22 inches of rain in mons. And despite spending 6 hours running after it I somehow saw nothing terrifying except a short 5 minute burst where the sky went black and giant hail covered the road, dropping motorway speeds to 30. Drove the entire width of south england without ever leaving its shadow and all the bogs in cornwall were road-level rivers. Did not bring my camera.

shame on an IGA posted:

We need one more named storm to tie and Epsilon (2005) formed on Nov 29th

Yeah named storms is definitely going lmao. 22nd october was the day TD25 appeared and then spun up to Alpha, and Wilma was still active. What happens for the names when Zeta is done by next weekend?

Spangly A has issued a correction as of 00:56 on Oct 21, 2020

Hurt Whitey Maybe
Jun 26, 2008

I mean maybe not. Or maybe. Definitely don't kill anyone.

Spangly A posted:

Yeah named storms is definitely going lmao. 22nd october was the day TD25 appeared and then spun up to Alpha, and Wilma was still active. What happens for the names when Zeta is done by next weekend?

keep going to omega baby

zeta is not the last letter of the Greek alphabet

mitztronic
Jun 17, 2005

mixcloud.com/mitztronic
we got hurricane epsilon ladies and gents... on October 20th.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-ne-tropical-storm-epsilon-tuesday-update-20201020-v5xgq7eeorgzngfgdcw3jydgiu-story.html

El Burbo
Oct 10, 2012

that’s a pretty thicc wind field

fuckingtest
Mar 31, 2001

Just evolving, you know?
Right Here, Right Now.
Cat 2, THICC EYEWALL...

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Thesaurus
Oct 3, 2004


fires going apeshit in Colorado. One is expanding uncontrollably and they evacuated a town last night (grand lake). Sounds like today is expected to be just as bad

ekuNNN
Nov 27, 2004

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWEsIeE4MCY

the bitcoin of weed
Nov 1, 2014

Thesaurus posted:

fires going apeshit in Colorado. One is expanding uncontrollably and they evacuated a town last night (grand lake). Sounds like today is expected to be just as bad

lots of colorado getting pumpkin spice skies now

https://twitter.com/photojmatthew/status/1319400367264813056

The Pussy Boss
Nov 2, 2004

Yesterday it was like dusk all day, again. Cars driving with their lights on at noon, colors look funny, blood red sun, everything smells burnt. Very creepy.

Thesaurus
Oct 3, 2004


Between late Wednesday and Thursday mornings east troublesome fire grew from 24,000 acres to about 125,000. :stare:

It also jumped the continental divide?? I would have assumed that was a natural, tree free barrier.


Last half of this video captures the flames engulfing cabin before video is destroyed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zP5ye4tZO34

Thesaurus has issued a correction as of 18:09 on Oct 23, 2020

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


plenty of places on the divide around there are below tree line

grand lake is a serious place to evacuate. same for estes park

the bitcoin of weed
Nov 1, 2014

https://twitter.com/IceSheetMike/status/1319685373832744960 looking good and feeling good!

Shifty Nipples
Apr 8, 2007

It's hard to mentally organize all the different ways these wildfires are terrible

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008


Strikes me as an ill omen and/or tiding for coming years

Pryor on Fire
May 14, 2013

they don't know all alien abduction experiences can be explained by people thinking saving private ryan was a documentary

It was so windy that East Troublesome fire grew by 100K acres in one day. Now that area is getting a shitload of wet air and snow this weekend so hopefully this cursed fire season is finally over and we can start worrying about next year which will probably be twice as bad.

Admiral Ray
May 17, 2014

Proud Musk and Dogecoin fanboy

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

also there are a shitload of people in louisiana, even in new orleans, who won't evacuate for anything under cat 3

that's dumb as hell, but they're not gonna be swayed by more nuanced storm categorization system


really i'm more concerned with the storm naming system, apparently there are a ton of people who don't take storms with female names as seriously

i've said it once and i'll say it again: everybody gonna get the gently caress outta the way of hurricane dick smasher

UnknownTarget
Sep 5, 2019

Vox Nihili posted:

Strikes me as an ill omen and/or tiding for coming years

It'll be fine for three years and then get worse for one. Just enough time for people to forget.

Egg Moron
Jul 21, 2003

the dreams of the delighting void

i mean, things can only burn but so much

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Zeno-25
Dec 5, 2009

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS


Zeta is coming

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