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Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Jabor posted:

Herd immunity doesn't really happen without vaccination - a catastrophic plague that infects nearly everyone might give temporary herd immunity to a population, but that fades over time and would have constant resurgences if not otherwise controlled.

Suppose you need 70% of the population to carry immunity in order to prevent a reoccurrence. In the long term, as people who were immune die of other causes, and people who are not immune get born, your population becomes less immune. In order to maintain that rate over time, 70% of people would need to become immune to it at some point in their life. It's reasonable to vaccinate everyone and then have 70% of them become immune that way, that works well. But if 70% of your population is gaining immunity by actually catching the disease at some point in their life, it's farcical to claim that herd immunity is somehow "protecting" people from it.

genuine question, what if 70% of your population is basically unaffected by the disease?

There's some issues with how you protect the vulnerable 30% obviously, but it would seems like it's obviously something worth discussing.

edit: obviously still need to be pushing for a vaccine to protect everyone though

Illuminti fucked around with this message at 05:53 on Oct 15, 2020

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Jabor
Jul 16, 2010

#1 Loser at SpaceChem

Illuminti posted:

genuine question, what if 70% of your population is basically unaffected by the disease?

There's some issues with how you protect the vulnerable 30% obviously, but it would seems like it's obviously something worth discussing.

Your hypothetical has nothing to do with any of the issues facing the world today, let alone the one this thread is about.

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Jabor posted:

Your hypothetical has nothing to do with any of the issues facing the world today, let alone the one this thread is about.

Oh ok. thanks for clearing that up

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

gay picnic defence posted:

To be fair that Oxford professor said the uk probably reached herd immunity back in March so she may be full of poo poo.

Link? That doesn't sound very good for her credibility although her listed degrees and accomplishments made her seem like someone to trust.

Illuminti posted:

Ok....I'm clearly missing something. I don't get it.


A dangerous virus enters a person and begins to multiply.
If the virus is new the person's immune systems simply doesn't respond, they have no immunity, they die.
If the virus is one the person has encountered before and dealt with it responds efficiently and kills the virus, possibly before even knowing it had happened. They have immunity.

If the virus is similar to a virus the person has caught before, the immune system responds but not efficiently, possibly leading to the person becoming ill. This is not "some kind of immunity"? What is it then? I learnt the phrase immunologically naïve earlier. is that not a form of immunity then. When did immunity become binary?

Also, all three of these people caught the virus didn't they?

Actually it turns out you're right. At first I wanted tp say you're confusing "resistance" with "immunity," and that immunity implies absolute and complete protection, as in diplomatic immunity. But looking into it that is not the medical definition, which actually does include resistance. Thus "partial immunity," which I believe would be the correct phrase.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

Play posted:

Link? That doesn't sound very good for her credibility although her listed degrees and accomplishments made her seem like someone to trust.


Actually it turns out you're right. At first I wanted tp say you're confusing "resistance" with "immunity," and that immunity implies absolute and complete protection, as in diplomatic immunity. But looking into it that is not the medical definition, which actually does include resistance. Thus "partial immunity," which I believe would be the correct phrase.

"Some kind of immunity" isn't the same as immunity, if the virus is multiplying in their cells and they're passing it on to others then they caught the virus even if they only got a mild version of the disease

Also "If the virus is one the person has encountered before and dealt with it responds efficiently and kills the virus, possibly before even knowing it had happened. They have immunity" then it's not accurate to say that this person "caught" the virus, they were exposed to it but didn't develop clinically significant infection.

Illuminti was not right.

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Play posted:

Link? That doesn't sound very good for her credibility although her listed degrees and accomplishments made her seem like someone to trust.

It's somewhat of an oversimplification and like all good scientists what she actually said wasn't presented as a certainty.

Here's the actual interview.
https://reaction.life/we-may-already-have-herd-immunity-an-interview-with-professor-sunetra-gupta/


Play posted:

Actually it turns out you're right. At first I wanted tp say you're confusing "resistance" with "immunity," and that immunity implies absolute and complete protection, as in diplomatic immunity. But looking into it that is not the medical definition, which actually does include resistance. Thus "partial immunity," which I believe would be the correct phrase.

well nice to know I'm not going mad. Partial immunity is obviously a much better phrase than "some kind of immunity". I wish I'd said that in the first place.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

"Some kind of immunity" isn't the same as immunity, if the virus is multiplying in their cells and they're passing it on to others then they caught the virus even if they only got a mild version of the disease

Also "If the virus is one the person has encountered before and dealt with it responds efficiently and kills the virus, possibly before even knowing it had happened. They have immunity" then it's not accurate to say that this person "caught" the virus, they were exposed to it but didn't develop clinically significant infection.

Illuminti was not right.

quote:

immunity: the ability of an organism to resist a particular infection or toxin by the action of specific antibodies or sensitized white blood cells.

Key word resist.

Plus there's different kinds of immunity, including passive immunity that runs out eventually, active immunity that is long-lasting and partial immunity that is.... partial.

If you want to prove otherwise go ahead, I don't really care tbh just trying to learn things and be accurate.

Illuminti posted:

It's somewhat of an oversimplification and like all good scientists what she actually said wasn't presented as a certainty.

Here's the actual interview.
https://reaction.life/we-may-already-have-herd-immunity-an-interview-with-professor-sunetra-gupta/

Yeah I'm gonna go ahead and say I'm not a fan. This woman is just confusing the public and the government's public health reaction with her pedantry. She's setting herself up to provide headlines for nutcases that believe we should just be opening up and letting people die, and in the first article she didn't even actually say what she claimed she was saying.

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

"Some kind of immunity" isn't the same as immunity, if the virus is multiplying in their cells and they're passing it on to others then they caught the virus even if they only got a mild version of the disease

Also "If the virus is one the person has encountered before and dealt with it responds efficiently and kills the virus, possibly before even knowing it had happened. They have immunity" then it's not accurate to say that this person "caught" the virus, they were exposed to it but didn't develop clinically significant infection.

Illuminti was not right.

If you have partial immunity then you are less likely to be passing it on to others.

If the virus is in your body, it is multiplying and you are infected. If you have immunity to that virus you will kill it quickly. What does exposed mean? The virus has to be in you and multiplying for your immune system to work.

Edit:Your level of immunity will decide how quickly you deal with the infection. Very quickly, somewhat quickly, not at all. There is no perfect state of "immunity"

Illuminti fucked around with this message at 07:10 on Oct 15, 2020

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Play posted:


Yeah I'm gonna go ahead and say I'm not a fan. This woman is just confusing the public and the government's public health reaction with her pedantry. She's setting herself up to provide headlines for nutcases that believe we should just be opening up and letting people die, and in the first article she didn't even actually say what she claimed she was saying.

Fair enough. and admittedly the first article was a bit of a nothing burger word salad.

Hopper
Dec 28, 2004

BOOING! BOOING!
Grimey Drawer
nvm

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Illuminti posted:

Wtf? I mean that's literally not what she says.....and I'm the shitposter....

also you probably missed it but a while ago you said

and I wondered what your thoughts were on this

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-020-00808-x


Tldr: 81% of people have a t-cell response to covid19 despite never having been exposed to it. Probably from other coronovirus infections and exposure.

So it would seem likely that 80% of people do have at the least some kind of immunity to covid and fits quite nicely with the patterns we're seeing.

Does your newfound understanding of what "immunity" means shed any new light on either of these articles? Because the person writing the first one is not suggesting that T-cell responses confer herd immunity, they're suggesting that maybe if vulnerable populations are just super extra careful maybe it's not essential that we have herd immunity. It's relying on the fact that many cases wind up being asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic

Just to summarize for everyone else:
1) An immune response does not mean that you're immune.
2) Herd immunity is not a measurement of immune response or lack of immune response. It's a measurement of transmission frequency. SARS-CoV-2 is highly transmissible even when people have few or no symptoms. People with effective immune responses arising from other coronavirus infections can still catch and test positive for SARS-CoV-2 and can still transmit it even if their immune systems are already well-primed for fighting it.

Illuminti posted:

To be clear, i'm talking about the classic definition of herd immunity not the new one were a disease is eradicated with vaccines. We have herd immunity to the common cold don't we?

Everyone else in the thread is also using the classic definition of herd immunity you fuckwit

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

Play posted:

Key word resist.

Plus there's different kinds of immunity, including passive immunity that runs out eventually, active immunity that is long-lasting and partial immunity that is.... partial.

Illuminti posted:

Edit:Your level of immunity will decide how quickly you deal with the infection. Very quickly, somewhat quickly, not at all. There is no perfect state of "immunity"
Oh hooray, everyone is immune! YOU SOLVED THE PANDEMIC, PLEASE STEP FORWARDS TO ACCEPT YOUR NOBEL PRIZES

gently caress me drunk

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Oh hooray, everyone is immune! YOU SOLVED THE PANDEMIC, PLEASE STEP FORWARDS TO ACCEPT YOUR NOBEL PRIZES

gently caress me drunk

Don't be an rear end dude, I was weighing in on specifically the topic of whether you can actually be partially immune to a virus or if immunity implies complete and total protection. Like anyone else, I'm trying to learn new things about this topic and use the correct nomenclature.

I have no idea what strawman you're trying to set up here, but whatever. Let me know if you still believe that immunity is total by definition, and we can discuss that further.

Delta-Wye
Sep 29, 2005

Illuminti posted:

If you have partial immunity then you are less likely to be passing it on to others.

I have found no evidence of this, and in fact have read preliminary studies that imply the opposite, including with some of the upcoming vaccines. Do you have a source this claim?
https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/the-world-needs-covid-19-vaccines-it-may-also-be-overestimating-their-power/

quote:

A recently released study in which macaques were vaccinated with one vaccine candidate — this one being developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca — showed the primates were protected from Covid-induced pneumonia. But the macaques still had high levels of virus replicating in their upper airways. (The paper was a pre-print, meaning it hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed and published in a journal.)

And ofc the unpublished article:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.093195v1.full.pdf

quote:

Viral gRNA was detected in nose swabs from all animals and no
104 difference in viral load in nose swabs was found on any days between vaccinated and control
105 animals (Figure 3c).

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Play posted:

Link? That doesn't sound very good for her credibility although her listed degrees and accomplishments made her seem like someone to trust.


One of her interviews has already been posted but here's another study she did from earlier in the pandemic: https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Imagine being so wrong about something even Boris Johnson won't listen to your advice.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

Play posted:

Don't be an rear end dude, I was weighing in on specifically the topic of whether you can actually be partially immune to a virus or if immunity implies complete and total protection. Like anyone else, I'm trying to learn new things about this topic and use the correct nomenclature.

Terminology. :ssh:

Also LOL at you pulling out "Just askin' questions" and :decorum: at the same time, gently caress off with that poo poo.

If you want to take part in the discussion that's fine, if you want to keep pulling this "Well actually the dictionary defines "immune" as.... :smug:" ignorant bullshit then I'm going to keep calling you a dumbass.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
While we’re on the horrible terminology tangent, I will get this off my chest:

“case fatality rate”? “infection fatality rate”?

Those are loving ratios. They relate quantities of the same thing, not dissimilar units. Take a class in mathematics, doctor.

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:
there's a lot of people who desperately want to convince the world that the virus isn't bad and a bunch of them think they can do that by laying terminology

also loving lol at that unherd article linked earlier where the author goes "actually we don't know what herd immunity really means and what it is changes all the time" to then reach the conclusion of "thus we should address covid with herd immunity"

the reason your posting isn't being appreciated is because the topic of discussion is "immunity", not "<blank> immunity". yes there can be things that have immunity in the name, but they are not "the immunity", and the topic of discussion, particularly in re herd immunity is "the immunity", nothing else. unlike many things in life this one is 100% black and white

plus, Illuminti doesn't need more help to spread murderous theories

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right
Like, it's a pretty goddamn basic concept. It's not like it's a new concept either, it's been around a LONG time.

Just go read the Wikipedia article about it if you're struggling to get your head around it, don't start out trying to figure out what "immunity" means in layman terms and then guess what "herd immunity" could potentially mean from there. It's a specific concept using the idea of 'immunity' in a specific medical context.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right
Moving along .....


https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1316352931948564480

:gonk:

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:
:gonk: indeed

more fun idiocy re herd immunity, a dude called Klaus Stöhr, worked previously at the WHO, is accusing the german government of having made a mistake by having the lockdowns extend into summer because that "reduced the level of immunity in the population" and also doesn't believe that vaccines will solve covid, but literally says herd immunity will end it

he works for Novartis. do they have a history of being bad?

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
“Used coronavirus swab tests”

hahaha one of the greatest pranks of all time

:smithicide:

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:
something's up in the czech republic


Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:
and the WHO weighs in on unvaccinated herd immunity today as well

in short:

it works if you don't care how many people die

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1315861543758766080

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Illuminti posted:

genuine question, what if 70% of your population is basically unaffected by the disease?

There's some issues with how you protect the vulnerable 30% obviously, but it would seems like it's obviously something worth discussing.

edit: obviously still need to be pushing for a vaccine to protect everyone though

You mean like polio?

For most people, polio was pretty minor, some fraction had major flu like symptoms, and then of that group, summer fraction had longer term health issues (like partial paralysis)

Big difference with the long term health issues of polio, is that paralysis is very visible even to the most brain dead maga chud; sleeping all day at home with brain fog doesn't make good TV

Hadlock fucked around with this message at 13:12 on Oct 15, 2020

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
I once sat though a full hour immunology lecture on the complement cascade by a guest french scientist with an accent so thick it would stop a tank round, but he made about a billion times more sense than some of the things a couple of posters are saying about how immunity works. Because he actually knew what he was talking about.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complement_system

Ah a lovely diagram

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames
Could you or I get Regeneron as promised, for free, today if we got COVID? Do I need to even ask?

Xenocides
Jan 14, 2008

This world looks very scary....


Michael Corleone posted:

Could you or I get Regeneron as promised, for free, today if we got COVID? Do I need to even ask?

No and no.

Also you probably could not get it even if you offered to pay cash.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Mithaldu posted:

the reason your posting isn't being appreciated is because the topic of discussion is "immunity", not "<blank> immunity". yes there can be things that have immunity in the name, but they are not "the immunity", and the topic of discussion, particularly in re herd immunity is "the immunity", nothing else. unlike many things in life this one is 100% black and white

Okay this is absolutely crazy, I'm sorry. There wouldn't be a well-known medical term called "partial immunity", if there wasn't such a THING as immunity that is partial and incomplete, which is what the op was originally referring to amidst the slapfight with the other guy. That's all I wanted to find out and I did, I've been inviting you guys to prove otherwise but so far, nothing, just lame name calling and nonsense.

And it's relevant because getting the coronavirus seems to provide partial immunity. Hell the yearly flu shot we know and love often provides partial immunity to that illness itself, and any vaccine against corona we get may actually do a similar thing. So it is in fact extremely relevant to a thread about coronaviruses where "immunity" often will not actually be complete.

I don't give a gently caress what that other poster was talking about, I just wanted to know if there were different variations of "immunity" and now I know there are. Again if you guys think otherwise please inform me

Michael Corleone posted:

Could you or I get Regeneron as promised, for free, today if we got COVID? Do I need to even ask?

lmao, you couldn't even get it if you had a billion dollars most likely

Play fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Oct 15, 2020

HugeGrossBurrito
Mar 20, 2018
Illuminti is threadbanned now if he posts let me know

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:
sorry, but you kinda overlooked the "topic of discussion" part

HugeGrossBurrito posted:

Illuminti is threadbanned now if he posts let me know
thanks for your work :)

toggle
Nov 7, 2005

Can you still get this thing by sniffing some farts? Wasn't that a theory before? Infectious fart plumes? The stinky rona strain?

could that make your bung a bio weapon?

All i want to know is, will seat sniffing be my downfall? thx

madeintaipei
Jul 13, 2012

toggle posted:

Can you still get this thing by sniffing some farts? Wasn't that a theory before? Infectious fart plumes? The stinky rona strain?

could that make your bung a bio weapon?

All i want to know is, will seat sniffing be my downfall? thx

The doorknob licking will probs get you first.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Mithaldu posted:

sorry, but you kinda overlooked the "topic of discussion" part

The topic of discussion in this thread is the coronavirus, yes. In which context partial immunity vs. complete immunity is in fact extremely relevant. I'm struggling to think of a way you could bend logic to claim that it isn't, given that the virus itself imparts partial immunity, not full immunity, and any vaccine probably will too.

Apparently some mystical version of immunity which so far doesn't even apply to the virus this thread is about was the "topic of discussion", so pointing out that most immunity is not in fact total and complete is a horrible derail. That's a pretty weak argument.

Also this bothered me a little, everyone knows that bulletproof vests are not in fact completely bulletproof yet still call themselves bulletproof vests. What an example to choose lol

CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Play posted:


Also this bothered me a little, everyone knows that bulletproof vests are not in fact completely bulletproof yet still call themselves bulletproof vests. What an example to choose lol

:ssh: They're actually called "ballistics vests."

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:
sorry dude, but you're too busy trying to find some kinda burn to notice that you just completely missed the context. i'm not even saying you're wrong, jut that you were talking past the topic at the time.


anyhow, something that actually contributes:

germany is now ranking france and the netherlands as danger regions, which uh ... valid

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Mithaldu posted:

sorry dude, but you're too busy trying to find some kinda burn to notice that you just completely missed the context. i'm not even saying you're wrong, jut that you were talking past the topic at the time.

I apologize for trying to understand exactly how immunity intersects with the coronavirus in order to better understand it and protect myself and my family in this, the coronavirus thread. Apparently the "topic of discussion" was a type of immunity that really has nothing to do with the coronavirus, so my bad

Play fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Oct 15, 2020

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

What the gently caress is going on in Europe? Is it just the change in weather?

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

pro starcraft loser posted:

What the gently caress is going on in Europe? Is it just the change in weather?

I've seen people citing going on vacation and then returning home and going back to work/school, as well as a change in lockdown procedures in some places. Not sure if the weather has anything to do with it but it definitely could

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There Bias Two
Jan 13, 2009
I'm not a good person

pro starcraft loser posted:

What the gently caress is going on in Europe? Is it just the change in weather?

I think part of it is just *time*. It's much easier to commit to appropriate safety measures when it's only for a few weeks. The psychological toll of maintaining these measures for most of a year now is probably weighing heavily on a lot of people.

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