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FMguru posted:Don't know anything about the source, but here's a another poll showing AK-Sen essentially tied. This has been my dark horse Senate flip from the beginning. Keep it weird Alaska!
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Oct 16, 2020 04:24
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Youth Decay posted:He doesn't appear to have an official campaign website and he has a 22-follower twitter that he hasn't posted on since July, but it's about what you'd expect https://twitter.com/thedeprogrammer
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Oct 16, 2020 04:31
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TulliusCicero posted:Whatever happened to that wierdo? His health is falling apart and theres a significant chance he'll be dead by the end of the year.
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Oct 16, 2020 05:14
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i thought ben stein was super conservative. why's he running as an independent
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Oct 16, 2020 05:33
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Bootleg Trunks posted:His health is falling apart and theres a significant chance he'll be dead by the end of the year. Brutal, in its own way, but if this is the person I remember and see crop up from time to time, he's thoroughly deranged. I didn't know he was ever a part of this place?
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Oct 16, 2020 05:39
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Bootleg Trunks posted:His health is falling apart and theres a significant chance he'll be dead by the end of the year. The only tragedy here is it's him and not trump.
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Oct 16, 2020 05:52
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Rigel posted:To me, huge numbers of undecideds in a dark red state means a lot of embarrassed Republicans, and you can probably give about 75% of them to the Republican. Just 75% would result in an insane landslide for Biden. Incumbents should get around 92% of their party IIRC.
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Oct 16, 2020 08:55
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FMguru posted:Greg Sargent at the WaPo analyzes the early voting numbers and declares them to be very good news if you were hoping to avoid election shenanigans. Important point quote:As McDonald told me, in swing states such as Florida, North Carolina and Arizona, elections officials are very likely to be able to count the mail votes quickly, in part because of their vote-counting rules, and in part because so many voters will have gotten in their ballots earlier than expected.
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Oct 16, 2020 09:14
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Once you start getting into the deep red or blue states you run up against the issue of voter elasticity -- the willingness of an average person in that state to switch their typical party line vote. It's part of the reason why it's so difficult for Democrats to compete in the Deep South, as party polarization has only increased over the last 40 years and you have to convince enough persuadable voters to switch their ballot to D for the first time in their lives. New Hampshire, by contrast, has a lot of voter elasticity -- there are mostly Democrats, but there are also a lot of people who will vote for Republicans or Independents. It's why Sununu is probably going to win re-election by a bajillion points even though Biden's lead there is in the double digits, and why Clinton only carried the state by .3% in 2016. For this reason I think Bullock is more likely to win his Senate race than Harrison despite getting a whole lot less publicity. Montana is a red state, but it isn't that red, and it's consistently elected Democrats to top-level offices before.
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Oct 16, 2020 09:16
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exquisite tea posted:Once you start getting into the deep red or blue states you run up against the issue of voter elasticity -- the willingness of an average person in that state to switch their typical party line vote. It's part of the reason why it's so difficult for Democrats to compete in the Deep South, as party polarization has only increased over the last 40 years and you have to convince enough persuadable voters to switch their ballot to D for the first time in their lives. New Hampshire, by contrast, has a lot of voter elasticity -- there are mostly Democrats, but there are also a lot of people who will vote for Republicans or Independents. It's why Sununu is probably going to win re-election by a bajillion points even though Biden's lead there is in the double digits, and why Clinton only carried the state by .3% in 2016. For this reason I think Bullock is more likely to win his Senate race than Harrison despite getting a whole lot less publicity. Montana is a red state, but it isn't that red, and it's consistently elected Democrats to top-level offices before.
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Oct 16, 2020 09:36
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Voters have cast a total of 19,858,793 ballots in the reporting states. There are still 10 states, including NY that have not released statistics. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
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Oct 16, 2020 09:41
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Bootleg Trunks posted:His health is falling apart and theres a significant chance he'll be dead by the end of the year.
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Oct 16, 2020 09:48
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Turnout in Colorado is up 2400% compared to this time last year https://www.denverpost.com/2020/10/15/colorado-2020-election-voter-turnout-ballots/ quote:Of the 300,795 people who had voted as of late Wednesday, 46% were registered Democrats, who comprise just 30% of total active, registered voters in Colorado and typically vote later than Republicans.
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Oct 16, 2020 09:53
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Charlz Guybon posted:Turnout in Colorado is up 2400% compared to this time last year
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Oct 16, 2020 09:58
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The Artificial Kid posted:Holy poo poo, 24.00%? A 2,377% increase
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Oct 16, 2020 10:26
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Charlz Guybon posted:A 2,377% increase
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Oct 16, 2020 10:36
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The Artificial Kid posted:You seem to keep adding extra digits to the increase in votes for some reason. I never edited that first post. It was 2400 from the beginning. You're the one who added a decimal point.
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Oct 16, 2020 10:41
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The Artificial Kid posted:Holy poo poo, 24.00%? What is this bit? It sucks
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Oct 16, 2020 11:52
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Good morning https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1317067050867691526?s=21
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Oct 16, 2020 12:37
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The Artificial Kid posted:You seem to keep adding extra digits to the increase in votes for some reason. Dig up, stupid
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Oct 16, 2020 12:39
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I want to believe.
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Oct 16, 2020 12:41
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18 more days to go, friends.
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Oct 16, 2020 12:41
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I wish these Florida polls would ask how many peeps have already voted.
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Oct 16, 2020 12:44
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exquisite tea posted:I wish these Florida polls would ask how many peeps have already voted. I guess given the state of voting a lot of these polls could be seen as exit polling depending on whether or not someone is willing to answer the question.
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Oct 16, 2020 12:48
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This has to be an outlier, but my God, if they've finally alienated the Olds...
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Oct 16, 2020 12:50
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That KFF poll of Florida just became unavailable/got deleted. Ppollingnumbers has this up now: https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1317067785135153153 vvv: Kasier Family Foundation poll of Florida, with Biden up +11 or something like that
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Oct 16, 2020 12:56
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That tweet's gone already, what was it
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Oct 16, 2020 12:56
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e: beaten
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Oct 16, 2020 12:57
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Ah, now it makes sense. They scrambled some of their numbers. The +11 Biden was a national (not FL) poll by KFF. https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1317072964253351936
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Oct 16, 2020 13:05
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FMguru posted:That KFF poll of Florida just became unavailable/got deleted. +11 Biden in Florida? Yeeeeeeeeah nah. No way. That suggests a Biden blowout like we haven't seen for 50 years. That +3 Biden is more believeable. Still amazing, but believeable Edit :postedbefore read the above
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Oct 16, 2020 13:05
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Wouldn't be the first Biden +11 result we've seen in Florida, Quinnipiac had him up by as much there last week. Quinnipiac has been unusually favorable to Biden by a significant margin, though.
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Oct 16, 2020 13:08
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Yeah it was actually Biden +11 national, not Florida. That's still an excellent result as it's up 6 from their September national poll. Would be interesting to see if they do put out a Florida poll since their last had Biden +1
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Oct 16, 2020 13:12
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Hypothetically if Biden actually was up by 11 in Florida what would that mean for his numbers nationally? That sounds like Alf Landon territory.
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Oct 16, 2020 13:15
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About +15 because Florida tends to be 4% more R than the national vote.
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Oct 16, 2020 13:16
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Hypothetically if Biden actually was up by 11 in Florida what would that mean for his numbers nationally? That sounds like Alf Landon territory. A bunch of us die drunk but estatic?
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Oct 16, 2020 13:24
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Hypothetically if Biden actually was up by 11 in Florida what would that mean for his numbers nationally? That sounds like Alf Landon territory. You'd think, but because of increased polarization, I think it would get Biden to 413-125 (as opposed to 523-8 in 1936) based on 538's polling numbers + snake map, because even +5 from current doesn't break you South Carolina or beyond. Interestingly, though, as I read it 413-125 (or thereabouts, modulo single vote swings with NE/ME or whatever) seems to be the most likely single outcome on the 538 simulation, although far less likely than {Biden winning with something less than that}.
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Oct 16, 2020 13:25
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Sorry about that, that was the first thing I saw on my updates this morning and snapped awake. 11 National makes more sense
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Oct 16, 2020 13:45
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Petey posted:You'd think, but because of increased polarization, I think it would get Biden to 413-125 (as opposed to 523-8 in 1936) based on 538's polling numbers + snake map, because even +5 from current doesn't break you South Carolina or beyond. Based on 2016 results, a uniform 10% national swing to Biden (that's a 12% victory in total - a genuine landslide) would get him 413 EVs, which is probably the most he can expect to get in even the most optimistic of scenarios. A uniform 15% swing would only add SC and AK (just barely), getting him to 425. He'd need to win by more than 20% nationally to get any more than that. EDIT: Incidentally, the 538 model says its about three times more likely that Biden will win in a landslide than Trump winning at all. Blurred fucked around with this message at 14:02 on Oct 16, 2020 |
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Oct 16, 2020 13:51
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Trump tweets out some support to a senator in a tight race https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1317081982166323200
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Oct 16, 2020 13:59
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 22:38 |
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What’s the record EV losing score for a one term president? Bush was 168 in 1992, down from 426 in 1988. It can’t be that bad for The Large Wet Boy can it?!
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Oct 16, 2020 14:14
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