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So suppose Biden winds Wisconsin and Minnesota. Are the first two scenarios still likely or not?
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Oct 16, 2020 20:17
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brugroffil posted:this is one way to gently caress with voting Yeah except you’re not guaranteed only to screw democrats by doing this especially in Ohio. This is more about trump supporters being incompetent buffoons that can’t run a business much like him.
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Oct 16, 2020 20:18
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Willo567 posted:So suppose Biden winds Wisconsin and Minnesota. Are the first two scenarios still likely or not? If Biden wins WI, and MN, there's no reason to believe MI will swing wildly away from its Great Lake siblings. PA's result isn't quite as tied to the other three, but Biden winning WI and MN is still a pretty good sign that he's favored in PA.
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Oct 16, 2020 20:20
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Glumwheels posted:Yeah except you’re not guaranteed only to screw democrats by doing this especially in Ohio. This is more about trump supporters being incompetent buffoons that can’t run a business much like him. Similar to the California GOP making fake ballot drop-boxes out of old filing cabinets with a "Vote here" sign awkwardly stenciled on and only advertising them on chud twitter accounts
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Oct 16, 2020 20:21
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I wasn't entirely sure where this belonged but i had maybe a dumb question. How are exit polls working this year? Is the idea to once again poll people on election day, in which case it seems like you'll have a massive lean towards Trump, or are they also attempting to poll early voters/mail in voters?
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Oct 16, 2020 20:22
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Willo567 posted:So suppose Biden winds Wisconsin and Minnesota. Are the first two scenarios still likely or not? I'm not sure why they would "still" be likely, since they are not likely at all regardless of WI and MN. The first scenario is probably the least-unlikely, and it already assumes they win PA through mail in fuckery despite losing WI and MN. A lot more has to happen even after that.
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Oct 16, 2020 20:23
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Glumwheels posted:Yeah except you’re not guaranteed only to screw democrats by doing this especially in Ohio. This is more about trump supporters being incompetent buffoons that can’t run a business much like him. Intentionally or not, it's loving with voting. And at least this year, Dems have expressed a much higher preference for early and mail-in voting than GOP voters.
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Oct 16, 2020 20:23
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Willo567 posted:So suppose Biden winds Wisconsin and Minnesota. Are the first two scenarios still likely or not? Depends on the margin. If he only wins by 1 or 2 points then it's plausible that PA could go Trump and FL is probably a lost cause. If Biden wins WI and MN by 7+, PA and FL are probably in the bag too
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Oct 16, 2020 20:23
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clean ayers act posted:I wasn't entirely sure where this belonged but i had maybe a dumb question. Exit polls are not going to work very well at all, at least in terms of helping us try to figure out who won. There may be some value in later figuring out why someone won and what the various demographics did, but thats it. Historically exit polls relied on mail in ballots being both a small portion of the vote and roughly representative of the election day vote, and neither are true at all.
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Oct 16, 2020 20:26
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JazzFlight posted:Speaking of having conservatives listed on the Dem side of the ballot... Not like that but I always have a bitch of a time doing any solid research on judges beyond who appointed them. It takes a lot of work to figure out how they ruled in poo poo and digging up the details so I usually just trust my gut and figure if Rick Scott or Jeb Bush backed them they must suck. If anyone has a good website resource that sheds light on them (especially in Florida) please post it or pm me a link.
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Oct 16, 2020 20:30
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Keep in mind how narrow Trump's victory was in 2016. If he wins this year, it's somehow going to be by an even thinner margin across states where his polls are lower than 2016. Between MI, PA, and WI in 2016, 14+ million votes were cast and Trump won by a combined ~80,000 votes. That's about 0.5% of all the votes cast. With him under attack from all sides it seems unthinkable that he could expand his margins in these states- so his already razor thin margin leaves no room for error. If the numbers were reversed, we would be apoplectic with Biden and resigned to defeat.
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Oct 16, 2020 20:33
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Willo567 posted:So suppose Biden winds Wisconsin and Minnesota. Are the first two scenarios still likely or not? Here's an interactive map that starts with the final 2016 results so you can flip states and gently caress with it yourself. This one I happened on messing around with it is my personal favorite because, as unlikely as it is, an EC tie would be the perfect third arc chapter for 2020  But it's looking increasingly hard to see a real road for Trump to pull this thing off even with FL, NC and AZ. 
BiggerBoat fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Oct 16, 2020 |
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Oct 16, 2020 20:35
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brugroffil posted:this is one way to gently caress with voting Which counties in Pennsylvania is this company screwing over? Why is this country filled with so many horrible people?
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Oct 16, 2020 20:41
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Rigel posted:Exit polls are not going to work very well at all, at least in terms of helping us try to figure out who won. ... gently caress This is gonna be it, isn't it? The exit polls are gonna say Trump won, he'll use that as his springboard for fraud accusations. It's also what's going to drive us all mad on election day.
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Oct 16, 2020 20:44
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Eric Cantonese posted:Which counties in Pennsylvania is this company screwing over? Why is this country filled with so many horrible people? Mainly urban and suburban counties, though they're probably the most likely to have contracted out ballot printing anyway given the need to print many more ballots? Reading the story, it's more dem-friendly counties, but not exclusively so, and they delivered just fine to other Dem-friendly counties. It seems more like incompetence and grift than anything, but hey, if it happens to help their boy, all the better for them!
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Oct 16, 2020 20:45
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Exit polls in the US are notoriously unreliable anyway, right? They're not done in the systematic way they are in other places iirc.
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Oct 16, 2020 20:45
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brugroffil posted:Exit polls in the US are notoriously unreliable anyway, right? They're not done in the systematic way they are in other places iirc. correct, nobody should give a poo poo about exit polls.
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Oct 16, 2020 20:47
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brugroffil posted:Exit polls in the US are notoriously unreliable anyway, right? They're not done in the systematic way they are in other places iirc. Yeah, and in this election in particular, I doubt they'll get much focus. Though I'm sure that won't stop MAGA idiots from going "look! 70% Trump! landslide victory!"
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Oct 16, 2020 20:48
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Grondoth posted:... gently caress I implore you all to stop fretting about Trump declaring victory, because he's going to do that any way, even if he's obviously losing. It doesn't mean poo poo.
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Oct 16, 2020 20:50
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goethe.cx posted:Yeah, and in this election in particular, I doubt they'll get much focus. Though I'm sure that won't stop MAGA idiots from going "look! 70% Trump! landslide victory!" They claim this in CA every year, believing the only reason Dems win anything is by "illegal voters" and "Soros".
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Oct 16, 2020 20:51
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Rea posted:I implore you all to stop fretting about Trump declaring victory, because he's going to do that any way, even if he's obviously losing. It doesn't mean poo poo. We're all thinking of what will replace the needle and it's gonna be exit polls. You know it, I know it, and the american people know it
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Oct 16, 2020 20:55
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Everyone also knows a lot more people are voting by mail and early, and everyone knows Trump will declare victory no matter what. Hell, he thinks he won the first debate, the one where his failure was so massive it moved the race when no other presidency-ending scandal would!
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Oct 16, 2020 21:00
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brugroffil posted:Exit polls in the US are notoriously unreliable anyway, right? They're not done in the systematic way they are in other places iirc. Yes. They're useful as a data point to feed into a model on election day for calling elections, but are unreliable themselves.
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Oct 16, 2020 21:13
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Glumwheels posted:Yeah except you’re not guaranteed only to screw democrats by doing this especially in Ohio. This is more about trump supporters being incompetent buffoons that can’t run a business much like him. Yeah if you read the details on this uh...they somehow didn't delay Cuyahoga but delayed something like Butler which is a hilarious net negative for the Ohio GOP. Sort of difficult to call this one more than stunning incompetence since the first thing you would do if you were trying to rig it is make sure Cuyahoga doesn't go out.
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Oct 16, 2020 21:14
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Ooo, that means exit polling is going to be even more heart attack inducing in general this year, before the actual results start coming in. Good for me to keep in mind
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Oct 16, 2020 21:14
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It's too bad that America is a failed democracy that can't even do basic exit polling, a hallmark of election legitimacy, correctly.
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Oct 16, 2020 21:18
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Are media companies even going to bother doing exit polling this year? There's no way they can even attempt it without a huge flashing caveat about how many people are voting by mail.
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Oct 16, 2020 21:28
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https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1317200837974892545
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Oct 16, 2020 21:30
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TwoQuestions posted:Everyone also knows a lot more people are voting by mail and early, and everyone knows Trump will declare victory no matter what. Hell, he thinks he won the first debate, the one where his failure was so massive it moved the race when no other presidency-ending scandal would! He won the 2016 election and he still thinks it was rigged. He will absolutely claim the election was rigged no matter what, unless he wins every last state.
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Oct 16, 2020 21:44
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https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1317201291626643462 is this something to worry about etc etc
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Oct 16, 2020 21:48
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WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW posted:https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1317201291626643462 That's also consistent with dems opting to vote in person because they don't trust the mail-in process, even though they might have said they'd vote by mail when polled
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Oct 16, 2020 21:50
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The story does say absentee and early vote ballot requests aren't coming in at *quite* the 2-1 ratio, though.
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Oct 16, 2020 21:51
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Rea posted:If Biden wins WI, and MN, there's no reason to believe MI will swing wildly away from its Great Lake siblings. PA's result isn't quite as tied to the other three, but Biden winning WI and MN is still a pretty good sign that he's favored in PA. Is there analysis that says what states tend to vote together and how strongly? This would be interesting to see.
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Oct 16, 2020 21:53
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On the other hand, Dems are actually *returning* ballots over GOP at a greater than two-to-one ratio .quote:
This is a handy site to have bookmarked. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
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Oct 16, 2020 21:54
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The Chad Jihad posted:Ooo, that means exit polling is going to be even more heart attack inducing in general this year, before the actual results start coming in. Good for me to keep in mind No serious media outlet can simply ignore the humongous amount of votes being cast before election day. Does anyone know how has this been handled in vote by mail states like Oregon? Edit: I mean, all this early voting should be a dream situation for election campaigns: Once they confirm that someone has already voted, and their vote has been received, etc. they can check that person off their list and instead focus on getting everyone else to vote. And this can be done weeks and days before the election! I would expect there to be a lot LESS uncertainty about the actual votes by the time voting ends than usual. DTurtle fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Oct 16, 2020 |
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Oct 16, 2020 22:01
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This is stupid because it doesn’t account for any Dem changing their mind and deciding to do in person early or day of voting instead of mail voting.
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Oct 16, 2020 22:02
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:This is stupid because it doesn’t account for any Dem changing their mind and deciding to do in person early or day of voting instead of mail voting. This. It's happened, in much larger percentages than we think--especially after all the stories about Trump's lackeys loving with the Post Office.
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Oct 16, 2020 22:03
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Does that account for people getting a mail ballot and dropping it off in person? That's what I did, and I was far from alone. I'd read it myself, but it's the NYT so my brief glance at some story last week is apparently the entirety of allowed reading for the month. Edit: Oh, requesting. Okay yeah, probably does.
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Oct 16, 2020 22:06
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Also the early voting website says that over 80 million absentee ballots have been requested which is compared to 136 million total votes in 2016.
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Oct 16, 2020 22:07
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:This is stupid because it doesn’t account for any Dem changing their mind and deciding to do in person early or day of voting instead of mail voting. It says "early voting ballot" in the story, so it would include in-person early presumably.
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Oct 16, 2020 22:07
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