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Beefeater1980
Sep 12, 2008

My God, it's full of Horatios!






jabby posted:

Baked in doesn't mean currency won't shift in response to political happenings. It means that it's already shifted to take into account everything we know now.

If we do end up leaving without a brexit deal, the pound will no doubt tank. But currency traders have already calculated the risk of that happening, using all the insider knowledge they can, and the current price reflects that risk. So will it still go down if we leave without a deal? Yes, because that's the risk becoming reality. Does that mean you should buy Euros because the pound will definitely go down? No, because we might still get a deal and if we do the pound will probably rise.

The currency market is basically like the odds a bookie gives you. The current price of pounds reflects both the risk that we won't get a deal and the chance that we will, along with all the other risks facing the UK. And it will change on a daily basis as the risks change. If you think we definitely won't get a deal, then put all your money in Euros and make a great return. But the principle is the same as you 'knowing' Spurs are going to win and putting all your money on them. You might win, you might lose, but the risk of both is 'baked in' to the odds the bookie offered you in the first place. I.E the current price of pounds.

This is a really good explanation and deserves a requote.

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Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Beefeater1980 posted:

Alibaba is an interesting company. It mostly operates in the UK as Aliexpress. The company is private, but due to close governmental oversight it’s also kinda part of the Chinese government’s foreign policy; as of today it’s the Chinese version of the East India Company.

What’s the proper response to that? Welcome, because it’s good to have options? Reject, because the EIC worked out pretty badly for its host country? Somewhere in the middle?
The EIC did mass vaccinations in India against smallpox using Jenner's new cowpox vaccine, so I say let them in, subscribe to their CoronaVac, buy a load of opium off them, and then start a rumour that their bullets are greased with dog fat.

Red Oktober posted:

It's been a while since that New Yorker article so:


Full story.
It's also a real thing in libertarian land.

NotJustANumber99
Feb 15, 2012

somehow that last av was even worse than your posting
I guess my problem was more with the reporting on it.

Before an announcement they would report: Boris johnson is expected to say this but don't worry it won't have any effect on currency rates because its expected and already baked in.

After the announcement where he says what they expected: HUGE DROP in the pound as johnson announces whatever it was!

Er... OK

Beefeater1980
Sep 12, 2008

My God, it's full of Horatios!






kecske posted:

this type of response really grips my poo poo. "you criticise the governments inaction but you yourself haven't resolved the problem. Curious!"

:fuckoff:

JFC people here are hidden autists (not you specifically I mean the wide swathe of posts). KGM is less attractive, wealthy, successful and relevant than Marcus Rashford, but KGM’s livelihood is dependent on him being better in all of those things. It’s entirely normal for him to be envious and unpleasant. Marcus will do the same to someone else 30 years from now.

E: the solution is to treat everyone else like they are you yourself. God only knows how to share this wisdom; we’ve had 6000 years of civilisation and still haven’t understood this en masse.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Beefeater1980 fucked around with this message at 11:51 on Oct 22, 2020

NotJustANumber99
Feb 15, 2012

somehow that last av was even worse than your posting
What?

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1319226305712476160
lol now he's salty as gently caress

stev
Jan 22, 2013

Please be excited.



Beefeater1980 posted:

JFC people here are hidden autists (not you specifically I mean the wide swathe of posts). KGM is less attractive, wealthy, successful and relevant than Marcus Rashford, but KGM’s livelihood is dependent on him being better in all of those things. It’s entirely normal for him to be envious and unpleasant. Marcus will do the same to someone else 30 years from now.

E: the solution is to treat everyone else like they are you yourself. God only knows how to share this wisdom; we’ve had 6000 years of civilisation and still haven’t understood this en masse.

Reading this hurt my head. What?

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea

For someone who writes for a living he sure is poo poo at it

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

jabby posted:

lol now he's salty as gently caress
The welfare state is supposed to prevent child hunger, but the Govt voted for child hunger. Remind people that the Govt voted for child hunger.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Beefeater1980 posted:

JFC people here are hidden autists (not you specifically I mean the wide swathe of posts). KGM is less attractive, wealthy, successful and relevant than Marcus Rashford, but KGM’s livelihood is dependent on him being better in all of those things. It’s entirely normal for him to be envious and unpleasant. Marcus will do the same to someone else 30 years from now.

E: the solution is to treat everyone else like they are you yourself. God only knows how to share this wisdom; we’ve had 6000 years of civilisation and still haven’t understood this en masse.

What on earth

HopperUK
Apr 29, 2007

Why would an ambulance be leaving the hospital?

Beefeater1980 posted:

JFC people here are hidden autists (not you specifically I mean the wide swathe of posts). KGM is less attractive, wealthy, successful and relevant than Marcus Rashford, but KGM’s livelihood is dependent on him being better in all of those things. It’s entirely normal for him to be envious and unpleasant. Marcus will do the same to someone else 30 years from now.

E: the solution is to treat everyone else like they are you yourself. God only knows how to share this wisdom; we’ve had 6000 years of civilisation and still haven’t understood this en masse.

Don't call people autists.

Bobstar
Feb 8, 2006

KartooshFace, you are not responding efficiently!

thrashingteeth posted:

Oh my god if only there was a way we could standardise donations from individuals to be spread across society in ways we all benefit.

IF ONLY THERE WAS SOME CONCEPT, SOME IDEA OR SOMETHING WE ALREADY DO THAT COULD MAKE SURE PEOPLE PUT THEIR CARING-FOR-HUNGRY-CHILDREN MONEY WHERE THEIR MOUTH IS.

I think we need that "talking to cis people about gender" meme but for talking to different levels of capitalist about money.

With Libertarians: "See, you can take money from the rich and redistribute it in a public way, it's called tax"

With liberals: "We could have a maximum income by making the top rate of tax really high! Reduce inequality!"

With slightly less terrible liberals: "Money isn't constrained, tax doesn't pay for things, learn about MMT, then we could have a UBI or a UJG, wouldn't that be nice?"

With fellow leftists in our philosopher robes: "Luxury space communism!"

Jaeluni Asjil
Apr 18, 2018

Sorry I thought you were a landlord when I gave you your old avatar!
Tory MP quits role as PPS over the school meals affair:

quote:

A Conservative MP has quit her government job in protest at Boris Johnson’s refusal to back Marcus Rashford’s campaign to extend free school meal vouchers during the holidays.

Caroline Ansell – one of only five MPs to side vote with Labour on the failed bid to tackle child food poverty – announced she had resigned her position as a parliamentary private secretary.


source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/marcus-rashford-free-school-meals-tory-mp-quits-caroline-ansell-b1221496.html

Seems to me that all the tories in the past few weeks who have 'stepped down'* etc are Parliamentary Private Secretaries. (Don't ask me for a list, it's a 'memory'.)
I don't really understand the purpose of this role, but they seem to be the only ones with a vestige of conscience.

*just from a govt post, not resigned the whip or anything like that.

Beefeater1980
Sep 12, 2008

My God, it's full of Horatios!






stev posted:

Reading this hurt my head. What?
Sorry I was drunk posting. And still am, ban me you cowards.

Let me try again. Krishnan Guru-Murthy was at one point a very prominent commentator. This resulted in him being sort of famous in the mainstream. One element in his widespread recognition was being South Asian, which very few mainstream commentators were at the time.

As of today, he is part of the previous generation of commentators. This makes him less relevant and interesting than someone younger, such as Marcus Rashford. In addition, Marcus Rashford is a former footballer who was a celebrity already before taking a political position whereas Krishnan Guru-Murthy was always a journalist. So Krishnan Guru-Murthy might be forgiven for being a bit catty about Marcus Rashford.

E: I apologise for calling people autists. That was neither kind nor considerate nor even accurate.

Beefeater1980 fucked around with this message at 12:22 on Oct 22, 2020

NotJustANumber99
Feb 15, 2012

somehow that last av was even worse than your posting
He wasn't really having a go at Rashford, directly.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1319236898372636673
Sunak casually admitting they are weighing people's lives against jobs figures.

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

jabby posted:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1319236898372636673
Sunak casually admitting they are weighing people's lives against jobs figures.

The lives versus livelihoods has been an explicit phrase used for days now, possibly longer. It's always meant that some people die for profits and GDP figures. How does no one with access to a microphone seem able to point that out?

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

namesake posted:

The lives versus livelihoods has been an explicit phrase used for days now, possibly longer. It's always meant that some people die for profits and GDP figures. How does no one with access to a microphone seem able to point that out?

Well also that people can die from other things not just covid. If more people commit suicide due to lockdown than die from covid that's not a big win is it?

Dead Goon
Dec 13, 2002

No Obvious Flaws



Beefeater1980 posted:

Sorry I was drunk posting. And still am, ban me you cowards.

Let me try again. Krishnan Guru-Murthy was at one point a very prominent commentator. This resulted in him being sort of famous in the mainstream. One element in his widespread recognition was being South Asian, which very few mainstream commentators were at the time.

As of today, he is part of the previous generation of commentators. This makes him less relevant and interesting than someone younger, such as Marcus Rashford. In addition, Marcus Rashford is a former footballer who was a celebrity already before taking a political position whereas Krishnan Guru-Murthy was always a journalist. So Krishnan Guru-Murthy might be forgiven for being a bit catty about Marcus Rashford.

E: I apologise for calling people autists. That was neither kind nor considerate nor even accurate.

When did Rashford retire from playing football?

NotJustANumber99
Feb 15, 2012

somehow that last av was even worse than your posting
Not exactly news is it that a life has a value and if it costs more than that to save you youre poo poo out of luck.

Cefte
Sep 18, 2004

tranquil consciousness

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

Seems to me that all the tories in the past few weeks who have 'stepped down'* etc are Parliamentary Private Secretaries. (Don't ask me for a list, it's a 'memory'.)
A PPS is the first rung of the ladder for MPs who want to be ministers. They're nominally part of the 'payroll vote' (despite not being paid), they advance by scrupulously backing the government line of the day, acting as informants for the whips, and by asking softball questions to buff their own ministers. If they want to vote against the government, they have to resign as PPS.

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

Lord of the Llamas posted:

Well also that people can die from other things not just covid. If more people commit suicide due to lockdown than die from covid that's not a big win is it?

No but currently that's not the case, the excess death figures for the first spike contain a majority mentioning COVID 19 as you would expect. Furthermore it ignores the toll on physical and mental health of requiring workers to operate in environments which either are or are believed to be unsafe which will have a cost of its own.

In reality the whole premise is wrong - globally the trend is the countries which controlled the virus experienced a smaller loss of GDP as well compared to those that really hosed up one or the other - it's a false dicotomy to say there's a trade off.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

It's also worth saying that as each Minister can have multiple PPS (and you don't even have to be that Minister's PPS if there's a reshuffle to get the job) resigning as a PPS on a controversial position is an easy win. To the voters you seem principled and on their side, and to the party you are nothing.

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
Yeah, the people resigning are PPSs because a PPS has least to lose.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

PPS have been enormously expanded in numbers since May becuase it gives some extra pay and is used by the gov as a way to force MP's to adhere to the whip.

Soricidus
Oct 21, 2010
freedom-hating statist shill
The only good Tory is an ex-Tory. If they had actual empathy they’d be leaving the party, not making symbolic protests while continuing to prop up the Cummings administration.

sinky
Feb 22, 2011



Slippery Tilde
*points at another railway* NATIONALISED

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1319209212237565953?s=20

Juche Couture
Feb 3, 2007


Had an interesting chat with someone yesterday and by interesting I mean death to landlords and tories.

He owns 8 furnished holiday let properties. Thanks to the government’s emergency small business grants, he’s been given £10,000 for each of these. No proof of loss of income required. In fact, because his properties are quite nice places, rich people who would otherwise go abroad are instead clamouring for fancy staycations, and he’s been able to increase the rent. Even before the free 80k, it’s his most successful year for a decade.

aaaaaaAAAA

sebzilla
Mar 17, 2009

Kid's blasting everything in sight with that new-fangled musket.


Dead Goon posted:

When did Rashford retire from playing football?

Probably around 2034

peanut-
Feb 17, 2004
Fun Shoe

Juche Couture posted:

Had an interesting chat with someone yesterday and by interesting I mean death to landlords and tories.

He owns 8 furnished holiday let properties. Thanks to the government’s emergency small business grants, he’s been given £10,000 for each of these. No proof of loss of income required. In fact, because his properties are quite nice places, rich people who would otherwise go abroad are instead clamouring for fancy staycations, and he’s been able to increase the rent. Even before the free 80k, it’s his most successful year for a decade.

aaaaaaAAAA

I couldn't understand how that works and looked up the Small Business Grants Fund rules, and it has actually been specifically written so that small businesses are eligible for £10,000 per property.

So every small business engaged in actual trade will be eligible for £10k of support total while every twat with a bunch of holiday lets will be eligible for £10k per property.

Literally everything Tories do is built on the core principle of funneling money to property owners.

Rashford should relaunch his campaign on the basis that if the government provides meals for children, their parents will have more money to pay rent. It would sail through.

Comrade Fakename
Feb 13, 2012


Trump administration has been taking notes:

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1319045495390638083?s=20

Jaeluni Asjil
Apr 18, 2018

Sorry I thought you were a landlord when I gave you your old avatar!

Juche Couture posted:

Had an interesting chat with someone yesterday and by interesting I mean death to landlords and tories.

He owns 8 furnished holiday let properties. Thanks to the government’s emergency small business grants, he’s been given £10,000 for each of these. No proof of loss of income required. In fact, because his properties are quite nice places, rich people who would otherwise go abroad are instead clamouring for fancy staycations, and he’s been able to increase the rent. Even before the free 80k, it’s his most successful year for a decade.

aaaaaaAAAA

Yeah someone I know who is a freelancer has somehow got a covid loan of £50k that he didn't need and shoved the lot into the stock market (mind you his track record of investing is quite crap so he might be in for a big shock when he has to repay it.)

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal
Remember when they tried calling Bernie an antisemite lol

Jaeluni Asjil
Apr 18, 2018

Sorry I thought you were a landlord when I gave you your old avatar!

Eventually, these false anti-semitism claims against those opposing the brutal Israeli regime must surely backfire against Jewish people who may be the victims of genuine anti-semitism? Won't they?

:cry:

Oh dear me
Aug 14, 2012

I have burned numerous saucepans, sometimes right through the metal

peanut- posted:

So every small business engaged in actual trade will be eligible for £10k of support total while every twat with a bunch of holiday lets will be eligible for £10k per property.

Cornwall Council has had to pay out 50m, at least a quarter, of its small business grants to holiday let owners - and because they are small businesses they don't pay council tax or business rates. They're just leeches.

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

namesake posted:

No but currently that's not the case, the excess death figures for the first spike contain a majority mentioning COVID 19 as you would expect. Furthermore it ignores the toll on physical and mental health of requiring workers to operate in environments which either are or are believed to be unsafe which will have a cost of its own.

In reality the whole premise is wrong - globally the trend is the countries which controlled the virus experienced a smaller loss of GDP as well compared to those that really hosed up one or the other - it's a false dicotomy to say there's a trade off.

The countries that handled it well had effective track/trace regimes and mitigated the consequences of actions not that they just locked down harder and nothing else. There's obviously trade offs with regards to lock down measures and unfortunately that's the only lever our incompetent government can/will pull. Just because you can effectively mitigate the trade off doesn't mean it doesn't exist. The lack of support to regions going into further restrictions demonstrates this problem.

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

Lord of the Llamas posted:

The countries that handled it well had effective track/trace regimes and mitigated the consequences of actions not that they just locked down harder and nothing else. There's obviously trade offs with regards to lock down measures and unfortunately that's the only lever our incompetent government can/will pull. Just because you can effectively mitigate the trade off doesn't mean it doesn't exist. The lack of support to regions going into further restrictions demonstrates this problem.

If your response is done well there isn't a trade off as there's limits to deaths and economic impact, if your response is bad then there still isn't really a trade off because either everything gets worse together or you take a similarly bad economic hit and increase the total deaths. Keeping most things open in the UK right now is a far cry from normal or profitable economic activity and the framing of such to cover for maliciousness/incompetence from the government is wrong. The fact that they are framing it as a dichotomy around individual financial/physical health is wrong at the core in a moral and economic sense.

Powerful Two-Hander
Mar 10, 2004

Mods please change my name to "Tooter Skeleton" TIA.


Oh dear me posted:

Cornwall Council has had to pay out 50m, at least a quarter, of its small business grants to holiday let owners - and because they are small businesses they don't pay council tax or business rates. They're just leeches.

And the owner's don't live there so that money leaves the county entirely!

a pipe smoking dog
Jan 25, 2010

"haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

Eventually, these false anti-semitism claims against those opposing the brutal Israeli regime must surely backfire against Jewish people who may be the victims of genuine anti-semitism? Won't they?

:cry:

I think it's already happening, and I'm fairly sure thats a feature rather than a flaw of the strategy given it's being pushed by nazis.

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Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

namesake posted:

If your response is done well there isn't a trade off as there's limits to deaths and economic impact, if your response is bad then there still isn't really a trade off because either everything gets worse together or you take a similarly bad economic hit and increase the total deaths. Keeping most things open in the UK right now is a far cry from normal or profitable economic activity and the framing of such to cover for maliciousness/incompetence from the government is wrong. The fact that they are framing it as a dichotomy around individual financial/physical health is wrong at the core in a moral and economic sense.

If there wasn't a trade off you wouldn't need to mitigate the side effects of your action. There's a reason that lockdown measures across the world have a fairly narrow range. Nobody is doing crazy stuff like literally locking people in their homes and having the army stuff food parcels through the letterbox, or declaring that all businesses must close until there's a vaccine. The UK isn't wildly out of line in terms of what restrictions it puts in place or the general advice given to the population in terms of safety (although has been slow to act in many instances); it's just been absolutely terrible at dealing with the consequences of these measures.

Edit: To go back to what started this absolutely there's a reason to consider the effects of restrictions beyond ~~economy~~ and observing that doesn't mean I agree the UK is handling it well or making the right choices or that the consequences are impossible to deal with.

Lord of the Llamas fucked around with this message at 14:21 on Oct 22, 2020

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