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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Wow, who are the 5 people in Havana who voted for Camacho? How does that happen? Accelerationists, dude.
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Oct 25, 2020 18:28
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Wow, who are the 5 people in Havana who voted for Camacho? How does that happen? Possibly like middle-class students at a Cuban university or something?
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Oct 25, 2020 19:01
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Miami gusanos still regularly send their kids to Uni there because they're good schools and cheap, so thats a probably it.
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Oct 25, 2020 19:22
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Meanwhile in Chile, polls are still reporting at about 30%, but the "Apruebo" option for a new constitution appears to have won with around 77% of the vote. So that's pretty neat.
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Oct 26, 2020 01:42
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I hope all of these Pinochet-worshiping asshats realize what a pathetic minority they are part of e: If providencia goes apruebo I’m gonna lol for quite awhile
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Oct 26, 2020 01:49
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SexyBlindfold posted:Meanwhile in Chile, polls are still reporting at about 30%, but the "Apruebo" option for a new constitution appears to have won with around 77% of the vote. So that's pretty neat. Which option is winning for how the constitution will be written?
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Oct 26, 2020 01:51
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Which option is winning for how the constitution will be written? Convención constitucional by around the same percentage as apruebo is winning e: If anyone wants to know what comes after this, this is a decent article about what comes next https://www.ciperchile.cl/2020/10/23/are-you-a-foreigner-interested-in-what-will-happen-in-chile-on-sunday-read-here/ Redczar fucked around with this message at 01:59 on Oct 26, 2020 |
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Oct 26, 2020 01:52
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Redczar posted:I hope all of these Pinochet-worshiping asshats realize what a pathetic minority they are part of https://twitter.com/enanachora/status/1320517559423242240  e: I've been browsing the SERVEL results, and I'm pretty sure the only communes in the entire country with a Rechazo lead are Las Condes, Lo Barnechea and Vitacura. And it's not even a big lead in Las Condes. You don't understand. Pucón? 72% Apruebo. Olmué? 73% Apruebo. Zapallar? 65% Apruebo. SexyBlindfold fucked around with this message at 02:25 on Oct 26, 2020 |
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Oct 26, 2020 02:19
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You are forgetting the important rechazo stronghold of Dubai
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Oct 26, 2020 02:28
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Redczar posted:You are forgetting the important rechazo stronghold of Dubai I'm sure if we ask nicely the UAE government can build an artificial island shaped like the 1980 constitution for ll the fachos to move into.
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Oct 26, 2020 02:33
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Congrats to my fellow Chilean goons. We really kicked their asses. 78% is an absolute and dominating majority.
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Oct 26, 2020 02:39
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But wait, there's more!
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Oct 26, 2020 02:48
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So if Chile is so developed compared to Latin America, why the increase in populism?
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Oct 26, 2020 02:51
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Honestly I was expecting a narrower win for the Apruebo, mostly due to the lack of a fully parliamentary convention for the new constitution.
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Oct 26, 2020 03:21
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qnqnx posted:Honestly I was expecting a narrower win for the Apruebo, mostly due to the lack of a fully parliamentary convention for the new constitution. The thing is, nobody wanted a mixta (or, by extension, a fully parliamentary) convention. There were people who wanted a new constitution with a fully elected drafting body and people who didn't want a new constitution at all. The idea of a fully parliamentary convention was only floated as a consolation prize for the right wing when the original pact of 2019 was negotiated, and then it was downgraded to a mixta when it was patently clear that literally nobody wanted to put the current parliament in charge of a constitution. I'm assuming the idea was that a mixta would get the votes of everyone who was terrified of a new constitution plus maybe some stray votes from the DC and the splintered RN. But, in the end, the Rechazo crowd was driven by the hardline anti-communist elements, and campaigning for a "okay but IF WE LOSE let's only choose half the delegates for this" option wasn't really within their narrative. Hell, even Kast pivoted for Rechazo + CC at the last second. For non-chileans, the "Rechazo" crowd could be broadly divided in two camps: The "Rechazar para Reformar" ("Reject in order to reform") group, which was largely comprised of mainstream career politicians from the right, were at least aware that they had to pretend to be in general support of the social demands of the populace, so their public position was "of course we want to fix all the problems with pensions, public transport, public health, police abuse, etc, but a new constitution will be very messy and is completely unrelated to all those issues, so let's say no to that and let's fix all those things in parliament. Don't ask why we opposed fixing all those things in parliament for the last 30 years and when an actual law somehow passed we deemed it unconstitutional". Piñera's government nominally took a neutral position in the referendum, but in practice most of its officials were understood to support this position, often loudly and explicitly under a fig leaf of "oh-but-i'm-just-saying-this-as-a-private-citizen". The other camp was... unabashedly fascist, basically? Alt-right? Neo-pinochetism? The figures with actual name recognition on this side were very few, former presidential candidate (and tax dodger, and prime Chilean example of the Sabine Mengele-Eichmann type) José Antonio Kast was probably the most notorious among them, but overall they were a hodge-podge mixture of Pinochet-era fossils, assorted far-right militias, USA-style libertarians, QAnon lunatics, religious fundamentalists, and the like. The main slogan on this side of the Rechazo camp was incoherent guttural sounds about communism. On occasion, they would be able to string syllabes together into something vaguely resembling "Chilezuela". I do believe that the three districts that the Rechazo actually managed to carry were siding more with the first camp than with the second - it's hard to know for certain, but one of the main distinctions is that the crazies started calling for Rechazo + Nulo (Reject the new constitution, and spoil the second ballot) in the later stages of the campaign, which got pretty much zero traction.
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Oct 26, 2020 04:08
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Will Paty Maldonado leave Chile? That was a huge Apruebo boost right there, but political promises tend to be forgotten. 
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Oct 26, 2020 06:13
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Traveller posted:Will Paty Maldonado leave Chile? That was a huge Apruebo boost right there, but political promises tend to be forgotten. Sadly, I'm afraid that came from a parody account 😔
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Oct 26, 2020 07:06
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https://twitter.com/GravelInstitute/status/1320793893886140417?s=20
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Oct 26, 2020 19:33
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I never realized how much Morales looks like Robert Z'Dar.
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Oct 27, 2020 01:53
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It's also Evo's birthday today. What a nice present.
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Oct 27, 2020 02:42
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https://twitter.com/OVargas52/status/1321123401822515201?s=19 lol
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Oct 27, 2020 19:03
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For those familiar with the region - how representative is this narrative of events?quote:Nobody expected Arce—a technocrat, not a caudillo—to win more than 50 percent of the votes. To achieve this, he had to make some final plays that positioned him more as the first post-Evo president than as Morales’s successor. The first was having the capacity to criticize Morales’s administration and question the conditions under which “the first Indigneous president” governed. Arce has promised a youthful government, with new faces. The second move was getting the idea out of voters’ minds that the MAS would be assuming power forever. Arce has promised to govern for only five years and to “put the process of change back in motion.” And the third play was to eradicate the idea that [the return of] the MAS would mean political persecution and revanchism. Arce has promised to not persecute the police nor the military officials involved in Morales’s ouster.
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Oct 28, 2020 12:01
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Even if it were true, those seem like concessions more to the military-backed coup government in order to be allowed to run at all than to the voting populace?
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Oct 28, 2020 13:21
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Yeah Arce also said that if Evo came back he would have to face the charges against him. I think with such a large mandate a lot of the campaign can likely be ignored.
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Oct 28, 2020 13:27
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They already dropped the charges against Evo, so yeah.
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Oct 28, 2020 13:34
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It turns out, when the far right and centrists make bullshit promises no one believes for the sake of  , the left can get away with it too.
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Oct 28, 2020 13:36
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arce's been talking out of both corners of his mouth on this as far as i can tell - promising a fresh start while also planning on prosecuting prominent coup politicians. whether he feels confident enough to square off against the military and police is unclear, but imo it'd be strange is he didn't want to from what i understood during the campaign, arce distanced himself from morales in an attempt to avoid a crackdown and to make the stakes look lower for the coup government. doesn't look like he feels too beholden to those promises now that he's got an uncontested mandate i'm more interested in the austerity measures they were talking about - it'll be interesting to see if arce keeps up morales' posture on economic development and foreign policy or if he tries to pull a moreno
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Oct 28, 2020 13:47
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my vague understanding is that as long the price of nat gas is in the dumpster, the new govt can't afford not to poke around for subsidies to cut - the peak Pink Tide years of welfare-spending-without-expropriation enabled by high petrol and copper prices are over regardless if structural reform is in the cards, the next question is what reform there might be a mandate for
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Oct 28, 2020 13:56
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V. Illych L. posted:arce's been talking out of both corners of his mouth on this as far as i can tell - promising a fresh start while also planning on prosecuting prominent coup politicians. whether he feels confident enough to square off against the military and police is unclear, but imo it'd be strange is he didn't want to So far it seems hard to tell what Arce's economic priorities will be. On the one hand there was that comment on austerity. On the other hand, he's also promised a new wealth tax: https://twitter.com/KawsachunNews/status/1320380087598972932 Considering he was Evo's finance minister for over a decade I'll be pretty surprised if he's that far from Evo's economic policies. I feel like if they had significant disagreements he probably wouldn't have been in the post for that long, but hey who knows.
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Oct 28, 2020 14:01
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morales et al did build a lot of profitable state-owned enterprises to keep the government solvent, including the natural gas fields - i'd expect to see them accelerate development of e.g. lithium deposits and suchlike. basically my impression was that morales avoided expropriation simply because bolivia was so underdeveloped that there were a number of excellent investments in want of a large, stable financier to kick off. so while they're in a lot of trouble in the short term, it doesn't seem as though arce would need to scrap the MAS style of governance in the medium to long term
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Oct 28, 2020 14:03
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https://twitter.com/LaborOrganizer/status/1321477128324612096?s=19
WhiskeyWhiskers fucked around with this message at 17:01 on Oct 28, 2020 |
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Oct 28, 2020 16:59
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The more I research, the more bullshit the "Morales only succeeded in growing the Bolivian economy due to the commodity boom" argument is. For starters there was hardly a boom at all, prices for most things just rose and yoyo'd around that level. Second real GDP growth doesn't seem to track too close to commodity prices.
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Oct 28, 2020 17:30
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From Wikipedia's article on Arce: "On 27 October 2020, MAS legislators in the Senate used their two-thirds supermajority, which was due do expire for the first time since the implementation of the 2009 constitution, to make amendments to the constitution enabling the Senate to pass motions with a simple majority. Some opposition Senators left the session in protest. A total of eleven amendments were made to Articles 12, 53, 81, 94, 107, 109, 111, 167, 168, 169, which cover motions relating to the appointment of ambassadors, judges, the censuring of parliamentarians, army promotions, changing the agenda and exempting motions from the normal procedure, among others. Similar changes to allow for simple majority votes in the Chamber of Deputies where previously a two-thirds majority was needed will be taken to a vote on 28 October 2020. These amendments concern Articles 19, 30, 48, 76, 91, 103, 104, 134, 146 and 174. The last legal session of the ALP before the transition of power in which the MAS maintained the two-thirds majority needed to make these changes is the 29 October 2020. Leader of the opposition, Carlos Mesa, condemned the votes, saying "In an unacceptable and illegitimate maneuver, the MAS changes the regulations of Senators and Deputies eliminating the requirement of two thirds for the approval of fundamental decisions in the ALP. Authoritarianism, abuse and the submission of the Legislative Assembly continue". MAS Senator Omar Aguilar supported the amendments saying "Are we going to block the governance of Luis Arce just because we lack three senators in this chamber?". In this last session, the ALP will vote on whether to initiate trials against interim president Añez, seven members of her cabinet, five former cabinet members and seven other figures, including prominent members of the police and army. Concerning the trials, Añez said "The MAS recovers its habit of prosecuting those who think differently. That is why it must be reminded that democracy is not only the rule of the majority. In addition, it is the government that adjusts to the law and it is the government that respects freedom." In August 2020, MAS Senators passed the so-called "Rooting Law" which would prevent former authorities at different levels of government from leaving Bolivia for three months after the end of their mandate. The United Nations said that this law violated human rights standards and that it "must not violate the presumption of innocence and due process, nor place an undue restriction on the right to freedom of movement, which includes power of every person to freely leave their country "
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Oct 28, 2020 17:44
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Rust Martialis posted:From Wikipedia's article on Arce: Good.
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Oct 28, 2020 17:48
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I mean it has abuse potential but yeah, elections have consequences, and so does failing at sustaining a coup d'état. I'd really like to see the literal fash crew get it in spades...
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Oct 28, 2020 18:32
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Rust Martialis posted:I mean it has abuse potential but yeah, elections have consequences, and so does failing at sustaining a coup d'état. Apparently looking it up it's only for appointing military personnel and stuff? I hope someone more well versed or who speaks Spanish can better inform.
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Oct 28, 2020 18:37
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There'd better be a military purge.
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Oct 28, 2020 19:18
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ronya posted:For those familiar with the region - how representative is this narrative of events? NACLA was desperate to write a lot of bullshit "nuanced" analysis during and after the coup. It's always some actual knowledge pretzel-ed into a story that supports their chosen narrative. The opinions in this article are full of that. The whole narrative of Arce and the current campaign distancing themselves from the Morales government so much is one of these things, Arce (and MAS as a whole) are well able to play to the ridiculously biased private mainstream media, and people like NACLA get excited about it, but it's mostly the reverse phenomenon of their coverage in 2019; in 2019 a majority of the visible protests and blockades (and the violence) were coming from the extreme far right, but people like NACLA (and liberal media everywhere) turned video footage of, for example, a big Santa Cruz fascist rally into an environmental protest, by using only aerial drone shots helpfully provided by the HRF endorsed riosdepie NGO; if you actually listened to footage of the same rally with sound, you could hear the speakers on stage screaming about jesu christo and how they will drive satan out of Bolivia. This year, they chose to hear only those soundbites from Arce they like, and ignore everything he ever says on a campaign stop with MAS supporters. And on top of that, you have to really remember that the coup government banned a lot of MAS leaders from running in this election (not merely for president, but also from senatorial campaigns), indicted and jailed a lot of them, so it is actually loving hilarious when supposedly liberal, unbiased analysis from places like NACLA just cites interviews done during coup times to be taken at face value. Though maybe they would have liked Arce (and every subsequent MAS candidate) give completely open uncensored interview the whole time so the coup government could just have banned all of them  The insistence that no-one imagined MAS winning this big of a majority is very obvious bullshit: Morales and MAS won 54% of the vote in 2005, he won the plebiscite over his constitutional reform plans with 67%, he won 64% of the vote in 2009, 60% in 2014. His 2019 result of 47% was historically low, Carlos Mesa managed to unify a lot of opposition voices behind his campaign (during Carlos Mesa's aborted vice-presidential/presidential term 2002/2003, he governed on the base of merely 22% of the vote), and there was in fact parts of the MAS base did not turn out for MAS in the way they used to. Some people might say that MAS managed to turn some of their base into "we just want to go back to brunch" liberals with their own economic success, and that hurt them in 2019 Nevertheless, the fact that the "interim government" was blatantly obvious illegitimate and dominated not by any "democratic voices", but all theocratic fascists and extreme right wingers, and their immediate massacres managed to very visibly unify all of the lost MAS voter bases. The pseudo-pro-democracy protest groups had paraded a few select union/social movement leaders who had their own criticisms of Morales in front of the cameras before the coup, but virtually every significant social movement and their leadership unified behind MAS again when the coup government immediately reminded everyone what political life in Bolivia used to be pre-MAS. MAS has always been extremely under-polled in Bolivia and every reputable poll predicted a pretty big MAS win in 2020, the question was just whether a) the right wing would do the Biden voltron in time and b) whether MAS would manage to gain the 2.something % over 2019 that would defeat even a voltron. Turns out, the right wing both did not manage to put all their egos behind one ticket, and at the same time, it didn't even matter, because MAS got more of their full potential at the polls again. Edit: Completely forgot the most obvious: the main question in this election really was whether or not the 12 months of organising and striking and protesting and blockading would be enough to dissuade the coup from blatantly manipulating the election results... Spice World War II fucked around with this message at 19:58 on Oct 28, 2020 |
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Oct 28, 2020 19:38
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MAS has declared a state of emergency because of the threat of another coup. https://twitter.com/camilateleSUR/status/1321729001489108993?s=19
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Oct 29, 2020 10:21
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The military really didn't do themselves any favors when they openly supported the last coup. Gotta run them out and start over.
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Oct 29, 2020 10:32
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