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reignonyourparade posted:Gubernatorial Elections seems to be where WA republican careers go to die. How many of the sort of people who would be "better" candidates than Culp even want to take a shot at it? In 2012, McKenna came within 100k votes against Inslee. Bryant got blown out in 2016. They probably still hold on to that 2004 election where Rossi lost by a little over a hundred total votes and just figure not-Seattle is gonna save them. So much enthusiasm! Boaters for Culp! Bikers for Culp! That kind of poo poo.
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Oct 29, 2020 01:58
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reignonyourparade posted:Gubernatorial Elections seems to be where WA republican careers go to die. How many of the sort of people who would be "better" candidates than Culp even want to take a shot at it? I mean, on a pure dirty politics level you can flip through the WA Gubernatorial elections on wikipedia and see how even when they are wicked close, King county comes in deep blue and makes up for most of the votes. And the governor keeps rewarding the place with all of their votes with state University investment and overall focus. Compare to Missouri, where the minute the red-team won a solid majority they started investing into their own vote-bank and away from the only big university in the state. More infrastructure = more people = more happy voters for you. WAGOP would need to run on a platform that gets enough popular support and then get away with a generational investment outside the Seattle metro core. Gerund fucked around with this message at 02:28 on Oct 29, 2020 |
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Oct 29, 2020 02:09
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OPB posted:Amid a backdrop of crisis in the City of Portland, the contests for mayor and a City Council seat remain highly uncertain, according to a new poll taken for OPB. My guess is Wheeler is reelected because it seems close and Iannarone will be hurt by the write in campaign. That said city polling is imperfect at best so nothing would shock me.
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Oct 29, 2020 02:26
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Gerund posted:I mean, on a pure dirty politics level you can flip through the WA Gubernatorial elections on wikipedia and see how even when they are wicked close, King county comes in deep blue and makes up for most of the votes. And the governor keeps rewarding the place with all of their the votes with state University investment and overall focus. I think this is way more strategic than either of the parties are at this point. Neither side is playing 3d chess, it's more like they are throwing poo poo at a dartboard.
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Oct 29, 2020 02:26
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If Portland won't count write ins by name unless total write ins win, how does that effect polling? Is Raiford on polls? Maybe the undecided portion is like me, deciding to vote my conscious and write in Raiford or keep tgt out and vote Ianaronne even though she's boring as poo poo and will probably only be not-tgt, but that actually is something. gently caress!
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Oct 29, 2020 02:37
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The Puppy Bowl posted:My guess is Wheeler is reelected because it seems close and Iannarone will be hurt by the write in campaign. That said city polling is imperfect at best so nothing would shock me. A friend said that the Portland race was like if Cary Moon got to run against Teargas Jenny knowing what we know now. And taking that wack-analogy as true in my heart tells me that we'd probably get an even vote split between the youth vote that hates getting tear-gassed and the olds that think there isn't enough teargas being used.
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Oct 29, 2020 02:39
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Raiford had 6% according to the OPB article. https://www.opb.org/article/2020/10/16/opb-poll-wheeler-iannarone-tied-in-portland-mayors-race-mapps-leads-over-eudaly-for-council/ And yeah as ever it's the olds loving us. OPB posted:Perhaps above all, the poll showed a big generational divide among voters. Among voters under 45, less than a quarter support Wheeler while about 45% back Iannarone. But among 65-and-overs, 56% back Wheeler while only 19% support Iannarone It's all very depressing. Hopefully the 400 or so people they surveyed represent jack poo poo and no more Ted Wheeler is a rare positive from this horrendous year.
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Oct 29, 2020 02:50
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the 'undecided' portion of all portland polls have been staggeringly high and as a result the polls should not be taken with anything other than a 50lb bag of rock salt. there have been giant swings over the course of two weeks that indicate that the small sample sizes and lack of "leaning (CANDIDATE)" options make the polls nearly worthless. hold on to your butts on that one, folks. one thing that seems clear is that if tevis wins it will be nothing but resistance and I'd expect him to step down before the end of his term.
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Oct 29, 2020 02:59
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Because it’s Oregon politics the most on point thing would be Teddy winning and then having to resign due to financial impropriety discovered by the investigation into his illegal donation the other week.
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Oct 29, 2020 03:03
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I think it's pretty safe to say that Wheeler is cruising for a victory thanks to the Raiford circus. Too bad, the guy really oughta get booted.
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Oct 29, 2020 03:11
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I think it's a little worse than too bad. His most notable achievement outside of enabling the cops to go full fascist violence on the community is gutting the parks department. My guess is he views a win as validation for his making the "tough" decisions leading to more spending cuts to bolster the Police Bureau budget and his private/public partnership poo poo with the Covid downturn as an excuse.
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Oct 29, 2020 03:50
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The Puppy Bowl posted:My guess is he views a win as validation for his making the "tough" decisions leading to more spending cuts to bolster the Police Bureau budget and his private/public partnership poo poo with the Covid downturn as an excuse. interestingly enough his last hail mary of pushing tonight's budget vote to post-election was caught and run into the end zone by new political worm on the scene dan ryan. if wheeler wins and mapps beats eudaly it's either going to be four years of teargas and pro-business pro-developer free-for-all or we force them to step down. Also, as an aside, can someone please explain loretta smith's pivot from being a PBA approved candidate for council into whatever you'd call her recent actions? Did getting absolutely shellacked by Hardesty and then losing to Ryan get her thinking that playing moderate party line politics isn't going to get her anywhere? IM DAY DAY IRL fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Oct 29, 2020 |
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Oct 29, 2020 04:14
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The Puppy Bowl posted:I think it's a little worse than too bad. His most notable achievement outside of enabling the cops to go full fascist violence on the community is gutting the parks department. My guess is he views a win as validation for his making the "tough" decisions leading to more spending cuts to bolster the Police Bureau budget and his private/public partnership poo poo with the Covid downturn as an excuse. Out where I am we have a parks district that has to get funded by ballot measures for increased property taxes. These pass overwhelmingly. Everybody loves the poo poo out of the parks district. Somebody decided they were going to put a big rear end wood poster on their car against the newest round of new property taxes which are going to fund a new pool complex. They parked on the Main Street in town. Last time I drove past the windshield had been broken. I really don’t get it down in Portland like the thing that has defined basically all the communities up here I’ve visited in the PNW seems to be super strong public support of public outdoor and community spaces. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Oct 29, 2020 |
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Oct 29, 2020 04:42
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meowmeowmeowmeow posted:Do I vote out of spite or optimism? Yes
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Oct 29, 2020 05:40
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:the 'undecided' portion of all portland polls have been staggeringly high and as a result the polls should not be taken with anything other than a 50lb bag of rock salt. there have been giant swings over the course of two weeks that indicate that the small sample sizes and lack of "leaning (CANDIDATE)" options make the polls nearly worthless. hold on to your butts on that one, folks. He's a republican become democrat to gain office. Resistance gets him so loving hard. He's scum and doesn't know when to quit.
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Oct 29, 2020 05:43
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meowmeowmeowmeow posted:It's weird how many culp signs don't have a trump sign with them, but all the trump signs have a culp sign. I’m in snohomish county and have seen multiple Biden/Culp sign pairings which just breaks my loving brain so hard.
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Oct 29, 2020 06:06
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The best shot Republicans will have since Rossi 2004 for the governorship will be if Jay gets a cabinet appointment and there's a 2021 special election. It's an off-year election under a Democratic president so expect Dem base turnout to be down (no more "resistance" anti-Trump wave) and it could be several Dems in the primary against Pierce County Executive Bruce Dammeier for the Rs. He's got enough moderate cred to get some newspaper endorsements, unlike Culp and the like, and he's got enough conservative cred that they can clear the field of further right challengers. Culp has no chance this year but 2021 could be a scary election to hold a gubernatorial vote in.
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Oct 29, 2020 06:22
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gohuskies posted:The best shot Republicans will have since Rossi 2004 for the governorship will be if Jay gets a cabinet appointment and there's a 2021 special election. It's an off-year election under a Democratic president so expect Dem base turnout to be down (no more "resistance" anti-Trump wave) and it could be several Dems in the primary against Pierce County Executive Bruce Dammeier for the Rs. He's got enough moderate cred to get some newspaper endorsements, unlike Culp and the like, and he's got enough conservative cred that they can clear the field of further right challengers. Culp has no chance this year but 2021 could be a scary election to hold a gubernatorial vote in. For being a blue state we’re surprisingly poo poo at letting republicans win in odd numbered years. That’s why we have a loving anti-mask chud as Snohomish County Sheriff.
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Oct 29, 2020 06:33
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Inslee isn't perfect but there is no other governor I'd rather have during covid. Whatever ghoul ends up as the dem nominee is unlikely to be better than the other dem governors (who have mostly hosed things) and likely to be significantly worse. Ugh that's my half full for a Trump win.
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Oct 29, 2020 07:29
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Out where I am we have a parks district that has to get funded by ballot measures for increased property taxes. People in Portland adore the parks. They're one of the main draws to the city, community hubs and provide essential services like daycare. The only problem is the parks are funded through the general fund so Wheeler and his absolute gently caress of a chief of staff decided there was where all shortcomings must be made up. People flooded every public forum where the matter was discussed supporting the Parks Bureau to the point of having the fire Marshall called to force people outside. Still, parks was gutted. Wheeler is the kind of liberal that believes they are simply objectively pursuing the most efficient path. That's why he pairs so well with Fascism.
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Oct 29, 2020 07:42
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FuzzySlippers posted:Inslee isn't perfect but there is no other governor I'd rather have during covid. Whatever ghoul ends up as the dem nominee is unlikely to be better than the other dem governors (who have mostly hosed things) and likely to be significantly worse. Ugh that's my half full for a Trump win. My prediction is that if Inslee gets a nod by an incoming admin that would mean that Bob Ferguson no longer has any juice to squeeze out of the "I Sued Trump And Won" gimmick and he runs for Governor in the special election.
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Oct 29, 2020 15:14
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Gerund posted:My prediction is that if Inslee gets a nod by an incoming admin that would mean that Bob Ferguson no longer has any juice to squeeze out of the "I Sued Trump And Won" gimmick and he runs for Governor in the special election. I agree here, no way someone like Heck or even Liias gets the nod at that point.
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Oct 29, 2020 15:31
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I'm pretty sure WA's constitution says that Lt. Governor becomes governor in the case that the gov can't do his duties (by taking a job in the administration). That's why people have said the Lt. Gov election is more important than we think. The Lt. Gov job itself is mostly powerless and effectively functions as a bully pulpit otherwise. Also Josh Freed is running a write in campaign for Lt. Gov after getting spanked in the primaries lol. But I suppose there's a small chance he gathers enough votes if dems split the vote between Heck and Liias though...
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Oct 29, 2020 15:38
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seiferguy posted:I'm pretty sure WA's constitution says that Lt. Governor becomes governor in the case that the gov can't do his duties (by taking a job in the administration). That's why people have said the Lt. Gov election is more important than we think. The Lt. Gov job itself is mostly powerless and effectively functions as a bully pulpit otherwise. He also spent $5,000 on the anti-sex ed effort, making him the 5th largest donor. I still can’t believe that there are anti-sex ed folks, it’s like a flashback to the 1990s. Next thing you’ll hear is that the Discovery Institute is running anti-evolution measures.
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Oct 29, 2020 16:08
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There would be a less-than-a-year period of Acting Governor before a special election, which is the quiet part of the Lt. Gov campaign and why a complete burnout like Heck is even running.
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Oct 29, 2020 16:14
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seiferguy posted:I'm pretty sure WA's constitution says that Lt. Governor becomes governor in the case that the gov can't do his duties (by taking a job in the administration). That's why people have said the Lt. Gov election is more important than we think. The Lt. Gov job itself is mostly powerless and effectively functions as a bully pulpit otherwise. Heck definitely has said that if elected LG and Inslee gets appointed, he'd serve as Gov until the special election but he wouldn't run in it, and I believe Liias said so too. So the door would be open for Ferguson/Dow/Hilary Franz to all go after it like they were during the Inslee presidential run.
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Oct 29, 2020 19:41
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Everyone knows "AG" stands for "Aspiring Governor." It'd be Ferguson, I don't think there's a Republican with the juice needed to stop him in the state.
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Oct 29, 2020 21:08
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Ferguson basically would be a shoe-in. He's done enough to get his name out there. Anyone who takes on Comcast for an anti-consumer lawsuit and wins gets an unprecedented amount of goodwill, since Comcast is one of the companies that has the least amount of bootlickers.
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Oct 29, 2020 21:13
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Gerund posted:There would be a less-than-a-year period of Acting Governor before a special election, which is the quiet part of the Lt. Gov campaign and why a complete burnout like Heck is even running. The last time I saw Denny he was christening the 'Billy Frank Jr. Trail' which is a little dirt path by the marina on Oly, and he got really nervoes when BF Jrs. nephew spoke and was like 'Why the gently caress is thay dam still there!!!'
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Oct 29, 2020 21:48
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seiferguy posted:Ferguson basically would be a shoe-in. He's done enough to get his name out there. Anyone who takes on Comcast for an anti-consumer lawsuit and wins gets an unprecedented amount of goodwill, since Comcast is one of the companies that has the least amount of bootlickers. That’s probably more convincing than all the anti-Trump lawsuits he’s won. Speaking of former AGs, why don’t we hear about Gregoire anymore? She wasn’t the most progressive leftist out there, but she did sign a ton of LGBTQ rights bills and marijuana legalization. Those debates against Dino Rossi were brutal. Just kind of weird that she’s just kind of gone instead of being recruited for cabinet positions or something similar.
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Oct 30, 2020 05:16
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Solkanar512 posted:That’s probably more convincing than all the anti-Trump lawsuits he’s won. Gregoire's daughter got one of the five Port of Seattle positions and now features heavily in all the advertisement at SeaTac for no good reason other than to generate name recognition.
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Oct 30, 2020 05:59
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Solkanar512 posted:That’s probably more convincing than all the anti-Trump lawsuits he’s won. They floated her for some jobs late in the Obama admin but mostly she's been pretty terrible since leaving office (and while in it too, to be fair). Her main thing right now is called Challenge Seattle, which is a do-nothing organization where a bunch of local CEOs get together every so often and talk about their ideas for making Seattle a better place - being business CEOs, they are of course experts in all things: https://www.challengeseattle.com/ The silver lining is that it is a worthless enough organization that it doesn't even try to enact much of its agenda, unlike orgs with more muscles and money like the chamber who can actually be a threat - it's entirely a circlejerk. And just a couple weeks ago she spoke at a GOP fundraising event! http://www.chronline.com/northwest_...6b28860cfb.html I will say that as far as I hear, her daughter has been perfectly fine as a port commissioner. gohuskies fucked around with this message at 06:21 on Oct 30, 2020 |
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Oct 30, 2020 06:18
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I should run for port commissioner.
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Oct 30, 2020 06:32
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gohuskies posted:They floated her for some jobs late in the Obama admin but mostly she's been pretty terrible since leaving office (and while in it too, to be fair). Her main thing right now is called Challenge Seattle, which is a do-nothing organization where a bunch of local CEOs get together every so often and talk about their ideas for making Seattle a better place - being business CEOs, they are of course experts in all things: https://www.challengeseattle.com/ Gregoire was also reportedly pretty instrumental in using challenge Seattle's venue to get all the tech ceos on board with supporting the covid restrictions and giving inslee a clear path to start the lockdown without any of our local billionaires going rogue on him so I can't totally hate her.
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Oct 30, 2020 07:01
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Gregoire's biggest gently caress up was raiding higher education $$ during the global financial crisis, and the state never got the money back to schools. It certainly wasn't fun seeing your tuition being raised quarter over quarter when programs kept getting cut.
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Oct 30, 2020 15:55
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Kaal posted:I think it's pretty safe to say that Wheeler is cruising for a victory thanks to the Raiford circus. Too bad, the guy really oughta get booted. I don't know. I can't find anyone who will publicly tell me they support teddy, but who knows. Obviously he has some support. If you go over to r/portland there's people who will say they're voting for Raiford because they can't stand teddy but aren't into Iannarone. That place trends more conservative than Portland as a whole so maybe it means something and the write-in is pulling from both candidates. Also the potential that the third party voters wouldn't have bothered. That's the thing, voters go third party because both candidates and messages turn them off, and it's not really certain at all that if you compress their choices down to two they'll automatically go where you think they will or anywhere. IM DAY DAY IRL posted:interestingly enough his last hail mary of pushing tonight's budget vote to post-election was caught and run into the end zone by new political worm on the scene dan ryan. But yeah this really sums it up. Unlike Wheeler, I do know plenty of people who support Mapps over Eudaly. He managed a real low key but generally successful branding of "exactly the same as Chloe policy wise, but not so mean and divisive and such" which seems really suspect and not at all what he'll be like in reality (he's ppa's chosen candidate). God pushing the vote on the defunding until after the election was just the most bald faced gently caress you to everyone, I'm glad it pissed off Hardesty enough to vocally call him out but what a shameful and sniveling move.
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Oct 30, 2020 17:02
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Out where I am we have a parks district that has to get funded by ballot measures for increased property taxes. Unfortunately when the Parks District got approved every other City department descended like vultures and there’s been no appreciable improvement in actual financial support for parks. Front line staff still have pretty stagnant wages and are still having budgets tightened. The new pool complex is really exciting but I’m sure it will only make my crusade to make the City actually loving pay its lifeguards competitively even more difficult because we got a new facility and there’s no money left as usual. Also everyone should be aware: the pigs just grabbed a bunch of Parks vans and plan to use them on Tuesday to “respond to incidents”. I’m fighting it internally but I’m loving nobody so expect to see Parks vans trying to run over protesters I guess.
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Oct 30, 2020 20:08
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i work pretty closely with parks, both personally and professionally, and I have to say that in my experiences the general staff/management are all fantastic people who do great work with the resources available to them. That said the senior management seems to be a prime case of people who have zero clue what, why, or how things happen below them in the org chart and consistently give contradictory orders to the staff like 'increase the summer program participation and revenue while we cut your budget and make it near impossible to even deliver programs let alone have them flourish' I'm torn because I am a third party provider who stands to benefit greatly if they were to just completely pull out of providing programs and would cede the market to me. That said the city can provide said programs at an absolutely absurd rate (or free to end-user) due to internal subsidies/huge grant/funding opportunities- I could never offer programs at the rates they do without having to overhaul our organization to be more focused on finding 3rd party funds to underwrite. If they functionally 'privatize' program delivery it could price out a LOT of families that really depend on PP&R programs to keep their kids active and busy during the summer while they're out of school. there's also the pesky issue of how P&R has a tendency to make decisions based on community feedback opportunities that are woefully inaccessible to the working class. I've served on parks advisory councils that are full of relatively wealthy people whose main concerns are 'crime prevention' and 'will this make my property taxes go up' and seemingly have zero concern for the greater good. It's all "give me another tennis court that can only be utilized by up to four people at a time maximum, if people wanted anything else they should make the time and effort to attend these in-person meetings that are not published or promoted in any substantial way" and it's depressing. IM DAY DAY IRL fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Oct 30, 2020 |
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Oct 30, 2020 20:46
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Bar Ran Dun posted:I should run for port commissioner. I think about this all the time because I literally live in the Port of Olympia and the people that do it now are morons.
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Oct 30, 2020 20:47
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:i work pretty closely with parks, both personally and professionally, and I have to say that in my experiences the general staff/management are all fantastic people who do great work with the resources available to them. That said the senior management seems to be a prime case of people who have zero clue what, why, or how things happen below them in the org chart and consistently give contradictory orders to the staff like 'increase the summer program participation and revenue while we cut your budget and make it near impossible to even deliver programs let alone have them flourish' As someone who works closelt with Dept. Of Commerce, Secretary if States office, Econonic Development agenices like SBA etc: thats literally every arm of state government lol. I remember last year after we got a 1 million dollar appropriation to fund what we do (convert mobile home parks into co-ops owned by the residents) a DoC guy was stonewalling and dragging his feet on the program and so I had to work my way up the chain of command demanding someone do what the legislature said they should be doing and eventually realised I had gone TOO FAR and reached a level where they just had no loving idea what their agency actually did or how it worked and had to work my way back down to actually get results lmao.
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Oct 30, 2020 20:52
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