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I will take Biden sneaking past 270 and an outside shot at a 50/50 senate over whatever nightmare was conjured up last night.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:00
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borkencode posted:Susan Collins did better than Trump in Maine, I think several other races were like that. 15 points better in Maine.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:00
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Someone calculate when PA will be called at the current rate of return so I can set an alarm
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Nov 5, 2020 05:02
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:I will take Biden sneaking past 270 and an outside shot at a 50/50 senate over whatever nightmare was conjured up last night. Last night feels like a week ago
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Nov 5, 2020 05:02
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:I will take Biden sneaking past 270 and an outside shot at a 50/50 senate over whatever nightmare was conjured up last night. Any election result where Trump is kicked out of office is a good result. If you told me exactly four years ago "four years from now, Biden will have won the 2020 election and only a few hundred thousand Americans will be dead" . . . . that would actually be slightly better than what I was predicting in the midst of my post-2016 meltdown. (I thought we'd have hundreds of thousands dead because of the abolishment of Medicaid, not a novel virus, but still).
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Nov 5, 2020 05:02
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mango sentinel posted:Chud voters are fueled by anger and spite. They will absolutely turn out to spike any hopes of a D senate. Back when it was first announced that Biden might have a shot to take Georgia last night I had a vision of Trump becoming enraged at the news and blaming the local candidates for losing the state, leading to a angry chud base deserting the run off elections and sewering the republican chances.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:03
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Why is Pennsylvania a "commonwealth?"
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Nov 5, 2020 05:04
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Starsfan posted:We can always hope that Biden squeeks out Georgia and that invigorates the Democratic base there to really come out for the run off election(s), but it will be a tough row to hoe. He was so uninspiring that he could barely get enough people out to win against Trump. You know, the guy who stared at an eclipse and told people to drink bleach to cure COVID. Moreover, he's been saying he's going to do absolutely nothing for average Americans and actively alienating his base in favor of chasing after Republican votes (who probably voted straight R downticket). What on earth would inspire people to show up for him in the midterms?
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Nov 5, 2020 05:04
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All that turnout for this nail bitter of an election. Jesus Christ, Trump has really expanded/energized the Republican base.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:05
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Roger Explosion posted:Why is Pennsylvania a "commonwealth?" It was originally bcharted to the penn family by the english king
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Nov 5, 2020 05:05
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NV is accepting ballots up to Nov 10th as long as they're postmarked by election day, they may be counting for a while if it's truly close.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:05
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Biden turned out a literal record number, but Trump did second best ever. This was not a low engagement election.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:05
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah. Still that theory makes sense to me. Democrats now hate anything with an R on it; Republicans are only fired up about things with TROMP stamped on them. but the chuds came out in record numbers as well in 2018. it's just that it wasn't enough
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Nov 5, 2020 05:06
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Would you play a grand history game (like Paradox makes) where you change control of different countries or factions several times throughout the game? If you could have the player switch without it feeling really forced, it might be an interesting way of getting around the fact that you become super-duper powerful by the end of those games and it's no fun anymore.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:06
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https://twitter.com/kwestin/status/1324167597412118528
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Nov 5, 2020 05:06
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Roger Explosion posted:Why is Pennsylvania a "commonwealth?" It's an old, aspirational English term for a community founded for the good of all. Pennsylvania was founded by William Penn as a sort of utopian colony for Quakers. That didn't last long but the name stuck.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:07
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stillvisions posted:Don't live in the past with Sherman, live in the present with Abrams; she'll tank you for it. Lol amazing
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Nov 5, 2020 05:08
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Kro-Bar posted:https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324198430151946240?s=19 He is right, the AP and FOX jumped the gun. We still think its a lot more likely than not that Biden wins, but you shouldn't call a race unless its basically a lock.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:08
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Gaius Marius posted:It was originally bcharted to the penn family by the english king Deteriorata posted:It's an old, aspirational English term for a community founded for the good of all. Pennsylvania was founded by William Penn as a sort of utopian colony for Quakers. That didn't last long but the name stuck.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:09
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I can't wait for Biden to take up the office of the President and get to work implementing his platform of uh... hmm... not being Trump but also not changing anything? Am I missing anything else?
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Nov 5, 2020 05:10
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Deteriorata posted:It's an old, aspirational English term for a community founded for the good of all. Pennsylvania was founded by William Penn as a sort of utopian colony for Quakers. That didn't last long but the name stuck. Some of ben franklin first writing was on the creation of s militia for the non milititant quakers. Fascinating stuff
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Nov 5, 2020 05:10
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Rigel posted:He is right, the AP and FOX jumped the gun. We still think its a lot more likely than not that Biden wins, but you shouldn't call a race unless its basically a lock. You’d think they would have learned from Florida but here we are. This race alone until PA is called is having me worried
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Nov 5, 2020 05:10
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https://twitter.com/Bob_Casey/status/1324201810270294018
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Nov 5, 2020 05:10
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Rigel posted:He is right, the AP and FOX jumped the gun. We still think its a lot more likely than not that Biden wins, but you shouldn't call a race unless its basically a lock. yea fox's logic was really bizarre, he completely brushed off the obvious question of 'right but biden's biggest county is also the state's biggest county and traditionally is pretty purple, why are you assuming this biden lead is static' with smugness because how dare you question the literal only dude who thought AZ was a lock.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:11
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Rigel posted:He is right, the AP and FOX jumped the gun. We still think its a lot more likely than not that Biden wins, but you shouldn't call a race unless its basically a lock. The votes in question were discovered after the Fox call, so it was legit based on what they knew at the time. They have refused to walk it back based on the new information, however.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:11
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I'm hoping against hope that trump no longer being president will very rapidly loving disengage the otherwise non voters that he engaged: a season of surprisingly low Republican turnout in the future would be great.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:11
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Tuning in. How are things sitting re:senate?
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Nov 5, 2020 05:11
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w00tmonger posted:Tuning in. How are things sitting re:senate? lich mcconnell continues to haunt the senate chamber as majority leader
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Nov 5, 2020 05:12
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w00tmonger posted:Tuning in. How are things sitting re:senate? at the moment, we're hosed as we only have 48 seats however there is a teeny, tiny window of a chance that we could get 50 by the end of the year if both GA seats flip (they probably won't) by the end of the year
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Nov 5, 2020 05:13
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New numbers just posted in PA. That lead is slipping for Trump bigly fast. Down to 170k with 11% to go. For reference Biden basically cut Trump's lead in half in like 4-5% of the vote today.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:13
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w00tmonger posted:Tuning in. How are things sitting re:senate? Hinges on GA pushing their numbers below 50% lead for everyone so we get a run off. Those races would determine the fate of the senate. Not good odds but it’s possible
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Nov 5, 2020 05:13
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:I will take Biden sneaking past 270 and an outside shot at a 50/50 senate over whatever nightmare was conjured up last night. My partner made the call last night around 10PM for us to turn off election coverage and start distracting ourselves however we could, and I'm indebted to her for that, because I'd probably be dead of a loving stroke if I'd kept watching. As it was, I woke up two hours after finally falling asleep and almost puked from the stress. It felt so much like 2016 and I was terrified. So I'm in agreement with you. I don't care if Joe squeaks out the tiniest of tiny wins, I don't care if we don't get the senate, I don't care if we get nothing done for the next four years; as long as Trump is out, I will loving take it.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:14
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Rigel posted:He is right, the AP and FOX jumped the gun. We still think its a lot more likely than not that Biden wins, but you shouldn't call a race unless its basically a lock. I mean, it basically WAS a lock, its taken a turnabout even more improbable than any of his 2016 rustbelt wins to even make it within the realm of possibility, let alone actually happen. AP of all outlets never calls early, they're the Gold Standard of the Gold Standard. I don't blame them for sticking to their guns even in the face of the unlikely.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:15
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Breetai posted:I'm hoping against hope that trump no longer being president will very rapidly loving disengage the otherwise non voters that he engaged: a season of surprisingly low Republican turnout in the future would be great. 2018 is a data point in favor of this, if you want to hope. Trump without a doubt activated a massive number of horrible non-voting swamp monsters, who stayed home in 2018 because "TRUMP!" wasn't on the ballot, and brought them back in 2020. Hopefully those swamp monsters go back to not voting again once Trump is gone.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:16
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Democrats tend to win whenever there is high turnout. But this election had the highest turnout in 120 years! How the gently caress are Dems going to win in 2024?
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Nov 5, 2020 05:16
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Zotix posted:New numbers just posted in PA. That lead is slipping for Trump bigly fast. Down to 170k with 11% to go. Yeah but last I checked before this update he was down by 180k. The gap doesn't seem to be narrowing very fast.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:16
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You know, I just realized that Biden's inauguration is likely to be relatively small, if he has public access at all, due to COVID. Trump going to be tweeting about crowd sizes when thats going on.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:16
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:(I thought we'd have hundreds of thousands dead because of the abolishment of Medicaid, not a novel virus, but still). Don't worry, Biden will get right on abolishing Medicaid. Vivian Darkbloom posted:Would you play a grand history game (like Paradox makes) where you change control of different countries or factions several times throughout the game? If you could have the player switch without it feeling really forced, it might be an interesting way of getting around the fact that you become super-duper powerful by the end of those games and it's no fun anymore. There was one called Great Invasions, set from 350-1066. Since only the East Roman Empire survived that entire timeframe, it had mechanics modelling corruption and decay of societies and the ability to swap between countries as the older ones broke down. Good luck getting it to run on modern computers, though.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:17
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This is a good thread and you should read it. https://twitter.com/aschrock/status/1324071351112491008?s=20 https://twitter.com/aschrock/status/1324071873932529664?s=20 EDIT: https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1324200240694648834?s=20
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Nov 5, 2020 05:17
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berserker posted:Yeah but last I checked before this update he was down by 180k. The gap doesn't seem to be narrowing very fast. 11% is something like 750k outstanding votes and Biden has been winning them with a truly staggering margin. By all appearances it's simple math at this point.
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Nov 5, 2020 05:18
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