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skylined! posted:And they’re trickling in the counted ballots. NYT just updated for 2 new votes for trump. Two. Could be counties resolving disputed or provisional ballots. Allegheny County (home county of Pittsburgh) is set to rule on its 36k questionsble ballots starting tomorrow. [spoiler]That number is only so high because of ~29k ballots that were misprinted and returned. Unknown how people sent corrected ones.[spoiler]
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Nov 5, 2020 15:22
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nate fisher posted:Ok good chance here. I feel like NV will shake out to Biden, so that plus GA wins. That said PA just needs to happen. Listen Nate. I hope you're right but you're a Nate and are therefore banned from doing any predictions.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:22
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Whale Vomit posted:I listened to the follow up Five-Thirty-Eight podcast and Nate Silver told me to go gently caress myself because he was on the money. This was their final predictions: Yeah but at what point does this become completely unscientific? "Well you see here if you ingest hundreds of polls into my super amazing models and do all this math, you come out with a number that's known to be incredibly wrong. So we adjust it with a random whole number to account for how wrong we feel the super fancy model is. And oh look, the results agree with our priors!" That's literally no better than just making up a set of numbers.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:22
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GoutPatrol posted:With the exception of Florida and Wisconsin, this...doesn't look that bad (if you look at it as the 3 point swing to trump everywhere.) depends on what the final percentages are going to be, who knows what the 10% of ohio and iowa can move that into a more respectable distance. Nah, its pretty bad. He's off by 7 in WI, 5 in MI, 5 in FL, 8 in ME-2, 8 in NE-2 (although in Biden's favor), 7 in OH, 6 in IA, 4 in TX, 4 in SC, almost 10 in MT. Pretty much all the swing states went stronger for Trump by more than his 3 point MOE.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:24
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olylifter posted:pissbaby's up https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324353932022480896 Eagerly awaiting the tweet where the AZ count must continue.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:24
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Goddamnit is it over yet
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Nov 5, 2020 15:24
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I am drat sick of that CNN ad with that nonce in a hedge maze.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:24
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I agree with Trump. Stop all counts now and award states based on current. Gros Tarla posted:Listen Nate. I hope you're right but you're a Nate and are therefore banned from doing any predictions. Ok I got that reference.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:25
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Regardless of if Biden or Trump wins, this election proved polls are useless jokes that serve no purpose. I don't plan to ever listen to the Nate's again. I will always assume my side is going to lose horribly and fight tooth and nail to win until the election is over.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:25
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mango sentinel posted:Incisive polling analysis from the guy who couldn't bother to check a name as you argue against multiple people actually on the ground in Georgia. Lol, I'm obviously phone posting while I'm doing other things. Is there a point to your post, or.....? Is there anything that I posted that is false, or not.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:26
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James Woods on the case https://mobile.twitter.com/RealJame...ed-fraud%2Fc%2F
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Nov 5, 2020 15:26
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Covok posted:I will always assume my side is going to lose horribly We know Covok
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Nov 5, 2020 15:27
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I miss the Obama years when listening to Nate actually worked.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:27
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nate fisher posted:I miss the Obama years when listening to Nate actually worked. Remember when we called Chuck Todd (who used to pilot the MSNBC Big Board) "The Wizard" and hung onto his every word? there's a photoshop of him in a wizard's hat somewhere (I say "we" even though I was a freeloading lurker back then)
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Nov 5, 2020 15:32
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https://twitter.com/JennyJarvie/status/1324357322253180931 lmao another day
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Nov 5, 2020 15:32
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Bootleg Trunks posted:Goddamnit is it over yet  im tired of clenching my butthole
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Nov 5, 2020 15:32
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Covok posted:Regardless of if Biden or Trump wins, this election proved polls are useless jokes that serve no purpose. I don't plan to ever listen to the Nate's again. I will always assume my side is going to lose horribly and fight tooth and nail to win until the election is over. You should have done that anyway, you potato
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Nov 5, 2020 15:32
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How does it take an entire day to do 25k ballots
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Nov 5, 2020 15:33
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Friend of mine is going on about how awful and racist we are as a country - which is true - and how that means we will never have anything good - which I disagree with. I'm hoping it's just anger and frustration, because whoever wins this election (and I loving hope it's Biden) the takeaway needs to be "we need to finally appeal to the non-voting population." If the best we can come up with is "well people just really love white supremacy whatchagonnado?" then why loving try any more? We cannot let ourselves use this as an excuse to get racist or to just focus on republican voters or turning them; it loving has to be about getting the majority of Americans who just do not loving vote to the polls, but I'm having a hard time getting this through. Or am I wrong? Anybody got any tips for dealing with center-ish people who are blackpilling over Biden not getting the landslide that this election should have been for anybody not named Donald Trump?
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Nov 5, 2020 15:33
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So somehow I got on Trump's emailing list (the emails over the past two days have been pretty terrifying) and he just announced to his supporters through it he won PA.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:34
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copy posted:Friend of mine is going on about how awful and racist we are as a country - which is true - and how that means we will never have anything good - which I disagree with. I'm hoping it's just anger and frustration, because whoever wins this election (and I loving hope it's Biden) the takeaway needs to be "we need to finally appeal to the non-voting population." If the best we can come up with is "well people just really love white supremacy whatchagonnado?" then why loving try any more? We cannot let ourselves use this as an excuse to get racist or to just focus on republican voters or turning them; it loving has to be about getting the majority of Americans who just do not loving vote to the polls, but I'm having a hard time getting this through. Or am I wrong? What state does the person live in? Depending on the legislature there are good politicians doing things. Marijuana got legalized and decriminalized across the country with this election. e: uh that's all I got lol.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:36
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MGDRAGOON posted:So somehow I got on Trump's emailing list (the emails over the past two days have been pretty terrifying) and he just announced to his supporters through it he won PA. He and his dickhead family tried prematurely announcing PA early before didnt they?
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Nov 5, 2020 15:36
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copy posted:Friend of mine is going on about how awful and racist we are as a country - which is true - and how that means we will never have anything good - which I disagree with. I'm hoping it's just anger and frustration, because whoever wins this election (and I loving hope it's Biden) the takeaway needs to be "we need to finally appeal to the non-voting population." If the best we can come up with is "well people just really love white supremacy whatchagonnado?" then why loving try any more? We cannot let ourselves use this as an excuse to get racist or to just focus on republican voters or turning them; it loving has to be about getting the majority of Americans who just do not loving vote to the polls, but I'm having a hard time getting this through. Or am I wrong? The cure is to actually *do something good* instead of waiting for electoral politics to do it for you. Volunteer for food collection and donation for thanksgiving. Give a homeless dude $10. Support your local BIPOC/LGBTQ activist group. Donate. Look for opportunities to help people that seem to need it, and make it a regular part of your life.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:37
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ImpAtom posted:How does it take an entire day to do 25k ballots Likely a combination of the GOP slashing your budgets since you’re in a blue area, most of your volunteers only being around for Tuesday, the need to coordinate with legal counsel from both campaigns to be around during the counting, and wanting to get everything 100% right because the entire world is watching you.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:37
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CNN slowly reworking its front page narrative into the beloved horse one about razor thin margins with no context. I swear the sidebar story about "Dems path to majority narrows" used to have a thing about it referring to the Senate in brackets and they removed that context for a more generic horseracey sounding thing. I still swear theres a gentlemans agreement to draw this all out for as long as possible. Joe Biden gets into go ahead territory with winning Michigan and Arizona and Nevada just stop updating more or less entirely early yesterday even before the fuckery in Maricopa and its all Georgia and Penn counting from there on out where Biden is making up ground and then just as it narrows to toss up territory they stop for the night too and it goes into today and the horserace narratives abound. Kale fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Nov 5, 2020 |
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Nov 5, 2020 15:38
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GA official just announced 61,367 remaining absentee ballots to count and wants to finish by 12p.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:38
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copy posted:Friend of mine is going on about how awful and racist we are as a country - which is true - and how that means we will never have anything good - which I disagree with. I'm hoping it's just anger and frustration, because whoever wins this election (and I loving hope it's Biden) the takeaway needs to be "we need to finally appeal to the non-voting population." If the best we can come up with is "well people just really love white supremacy whatchagonnado?" then why loving try any more? We cannot let ourselves use this as an excuse to get racist or to just focus on republican voters or turning them; it loving has to be about getting the majority of Americans who just do not loving vote to the polls, but I'm having a hard time getting this through. Or am I wrong? It isn't quite that simple. We saw a significant uptick in votes this election and a lot of them were Trump. Even If you halve the number of nonvoters there isn't a ton of evidence that those nonvoters are going to break left. The biggest hope would be youth turn out and nothing, not even inspiring candidates, drives them the same ad olds. (Part of this is how lovely it is to vote when working, mind)
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Nov 5, 2020 15:38
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skylined! posted:GA official just announced 61,367 remaining absentee ballots to count and wants to finish by 12p. Source on this?
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Nov 5, 2020 15:39
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Is Biden still going to win yes or no
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Nov 5, 2020 15:39
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Empress Brosephine posted:Is Biden still going to win yes or no Hopefully we'll know in the next 20 years.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:40
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Likely a combination of the GOP slashing your budgets since you’re in a blue area, most of your volunteers only being around for Tuesday, the need to coordinate with legal counsel from both campaigns to be around during the counting, and wanting to get everything 100% right because the entire world is watching you. I forgot coordinating security because a horde of armed chuds is likely to descend on your location.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:40
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wilderthanmild posted:Source on this? NYT, their live updates.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:40
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I love that none of these states wants to finish
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Nov 5, 2020 15:40
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Empress Brosephine posted:Is Biden still going to win yes or no
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Nov 5, 2020 15:41
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skylined! posted:GA official just announced 61,367 remaining absentee ballots to count and wants to finish by 12p. I wonder if GA goes blue, if Fox has the balls to say Biden wins with their early AZ call in doubt right now.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:41
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Empress Brosephine posted:Is Biden still going to win yes or no It seems exceedingly likely that there will be a winner.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:41
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Empress Brosephine posted:Is Biden still going to win yes or no Almost certainly.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:41
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So is AZ safe still or should pants be poo poo in response to its tightening
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Nov 5, 2020 15:43
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wilderthanmild posted:Source on this? NYT latest updates.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:43
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nate fisher posted:I wonder if GA goes blue, if Fox has the balls to say Biden wins with their early AZ call in doubt right now. They have a built-in excuse to avoid calling GA as blue on their map, because it's almost certainly going to land within a recount margin.
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Nov 5, 2020 15:43
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