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poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



wilderthanmild posted:

I mostly agree with you.

Sturgis definitely had an effect, as you can watch the cases per 100k explode outward from there in early August. However, a second spike was inevitable with kids in school, people switching to indoor activities due to cold, the election, and holidays. Sturgis just gave us a little push to get it to hit a little earlier and a little worse.

Sturgis involved a lot of travel, too, and planted the seeds of little outbreaks all over the country just in time for fall.

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Fenarisk
Oct 27, 2005

Lockdowns won't do anything because most people will still travel and do family get togethers for the holidays, and police aren't enforcing it at all.

warsow
Jun 28, 2009

If only 1% of them contract it and then .17% of all cases need to be hospitalized (which I think is the average right now across age groups), that’s 300k people.

As of 15NOV there are roughly 70k people being hospitalized for covid (https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized).

From there I think we will see a spike in not just the CFR but in non-covid fatalities again with people either not going or being unable to be treated for other ailments.

Happy thanksgiving or something....

A Fancy Hat
Nov 18, 2016

Always remember that the former President was dumber than the dumbest person you've ever met by a wide margin

explosivo posted:

Gov Wolf (PA) is making some announcement this afternoon, my gf is convinced that he's announcing a new statewide lockdown but I haven't heard anything about that so who knows. We desperately need it though.

I'm also in PA (outside of Pittsburgh) and am hoping for the same.

At least get rid of in-person dining. My wife and I got takeout on Friday, I was SHOCKED by how many people were eating inside and at the nearby bar. I'm in good health in my early 30s and couldn't imagine eating in a restaurant right now, but I saw plenty of elderly people just chilling out inside.

wilderthanmild
Jun 21, 2010

Posting shit




Grimey Drawer
I'm pretty annoyed that Dewine(OH) made the most pointless move ever last week by announcing we'd start doing shutdowns of bars, restaurants, and gyms Thursday if numbers didn't get better. What's the point in waiting? The numbers won't get better in a week. It makes me think he's going to chicken out and not shut down anything.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Greatest Living Man posted:

I guess we know why Pfizer's CEO dumped his stocks now. Stable at refrigerator temps, higher efficacy.

They won’t be able to keep any vaccine on the proverbial shelves.

Anything that’s safe will sell at whatever volume they can manufacture.

WaffleZombie
May 10, 2003

"Identity Crisis" Murderer Wild Guess #333:Prince "Lady Killer Charming "Well, I AM the Adversa"



I'm in PA too, and I really hope it's another lock down though I really doubt it. I'm outside Philly in Delaware County. The hospitals are full, and we just got a hit a record for most cases in a day this past week. And yet, unlike the spring, people's behavior isn't changing! And of course, those highs in the spring happened after everyone changed their behavior so even if we hadn't reached the top of the wave, we could assume it was coming. Now, with no changes, who the gently caress knows what would get us past this wave.

A lock down, in and of itself, might not be effective. However, it might provide a shock to people and remind them that, yes, we're in a pandemic and poo poo is not just bad, but worse than in the spring.

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

What's the last step before these can begin going out?

Shit Fuckasaurus
Oct 14, 2005

i think right angles might be an abomination against nature you guys
Lipstick Apathy

wilderthanmild posted:

I'm pretty annoyed that Dewine(OH) made the most pointless move ever last week by announcing we'd start doing shutdowns of bars, restaurants, and gyms Thursday if numbers didn't get better. What's the point in waiting? The numbers won't get better in a week. It makes me think he's going to chicken out and not shut down anything.

It's appeasement. If he had just announced a lockdown the Republicans would have gone nuts. Now it's a lockdown with a week delay to see if Personal Responsibility can win the day first. It can't, the people who are testing positive today we're infected at least a week ago, but the conservatives don't understand that, so they'll hopefully protest less.

wilderthanmild
Jun 21, 2010

Posting shit




Grimey Drawer

pro starcraft loser posted:

What's the last step before these can begin going out?

Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA. I think Pfizer has already applied for it and I assume Moderna will also be doing so shortly.

explosivo
May 23, 2004

Fueled by Satan

WaffleZombie posted:

I'm in PA too, and I really hope it's another lock down though I really doubt it. I'm outside Philly in Delaware County. The hospitals are full, and we just got a hit a record for most cases in a day this past week. And yet, unlike the spring, people's behavior isn't changing! And of course, those highs in the spring happened after everyone changed their behavior so even if we hadn't reached the top of the wave, we could assume it was coming. Now, with no changes, who the gently caress knows what would get us past this wave.

Hey neighbor, Montco here :hfive:

Pine Cone Jones
Dec 6, 2009

You throw me the acorn, I throw you the whip!
Also PA here outside of Harrisburg. Hooray for being work from home, but it's also unfortunate that I have several coworkers who believe that it's all a hoax.

Another Bill
Sep 27, 2018

Born on the bayou
died in a cave
bbq and posting
is all I crave

Platystemon posted:

They won’t be able to keep any vaccine on the proverbial shelves.

Anything that’s safe will sell at whatever volume they can manufacture.

Yeah exactly, if you guys have extra 90% effective vaccine you don't want I'll pay today to have it shipped to my family with the cost of dry ice to keep it -70 included.

explosivo
May 23, 2004

Fueled by Satan

Pine Cone Jones posted:

Also PA here outside of Harrisburg. Hooray for being work from home, but it's also unfortunate that I have several coworkers who believe that it's all a hoax.

Yeah my boss of all people is the one taking this poo poo the least seriously, we're working from home most of the time but he's still taking on and assigning projects that can only be done in the office and getting on our case if they don't get done. He hasn't missed a day in the office since the pandemic started and is one of those bosses whose entire identity revolves around work so I have a feeling that while he tolerates us being at home he expects us all to be coming in more frequently now because we keep getting more and more poo poo to do. I really sucks. I'm hoping another lockdown will change that but last time our company somehow managed to get the 'essential business' label which kept them open anyway.

Mulaney Power Move
Dec 30, 2004

pro starcraft loser posted:

What's the last step before these can begin going out?

calibrate and program the nanoprobes that make us passively accept socialism and deny God

A Fancy Hat
Nov 18, 2016

Always remember that the former President was dumber than the dumbest person you've ever met by a wide margin

Pine Cone Jones posted:

Also PA here outside of Harrisburg. Hooray for being work from home, but it's also unfortunate that I have several coworkers who believe that it's all a hoax.

I have a coworker who is basically a living co-morbidity. He's obese, has diabetes, and just had knee replacement surgery. He thinks it's a hoax and gets offended that nobody wants to sit in his office with him for conference calls.

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

Mulaney Power Move posted:

calibrate and program the nanoprobes that make us passively accept socialism and deny God

CaptainCrunch
Mar 19, 2006
droppin Hamiltons!
Here’s a question.

Can an individual take more than one of these vaccines?
IE the 90% one becomes available in my area and I go to the Doc and he jabs it in my arm.
2 months later another becomes available that’s 97% effective. Would it be worth it, or even safe to get that one administered?

Just curious if diminishing returns kicks in at all.

naem
May 29, 2011

CaptainCrunch posted:

Here’s a question.

Can an individual take more than one of these vaccines?
IE the 90% one becomes available in my area and I go to the Doc and he jabs it in my arm.
2 months later another becomes available that’s 97% effective. Would it be worth it, or even safe to get that one administered?

Just curious if diminishing returns kicks in at all.

that would be 187% effective

Polio Vax Scene
Apr 5, 2009



my cousin overdosed on vaccines and thats how you get autism trust me.

Hardawn
Mar 15, 2004

Don't look at the sun, but rather what it illuminates
College Slice

naem posted:

that would be 187% effective

That's murder number need another two vaccines with 62% effectiveness to get to 311%

Sarah Cenia
Apr 2, 2008

Laying in the forest, by the water
Underneath these ferns
You'll never find me
My in-laws just put together a poker run that ended at their house. They're both prime targets for covid.
Also, their son who lives with them just started working at a bar in the city.

God drat, people.

FiskTireBoy
Nov 2, 2020
I have to say I'm pretty surprised with Trump. I'm sure once he hired Scott Atlas that Atlas put the idea in his Trumps head that the national strategy is going to be herd immunity. And I'm sure Trump with his animalistic view of humans (wolves and sheep) thought that was a great idea and went with it. Yet I don't think I've ever heard Trump say publically that the Governments strategy is herd immunity. It's almost like he's keeping it a secret? Which is not like Trump at all. He ALWAYS says the quiet part loud.

A Fancy Hat
Nov 18, 2016

Always remember that the former President was dumber than the dumbest person you've ever met by a wide margin

FiskTireBoy posted:

I have to say I'm pretty surprised with Trump. I'm sure once he hired Scott Atlas that Atlas put the idea in his Trumps head that the national strategy is going to be herd immunity. And I'm sure Trump with his animalistic view of humans (wolves and sheep) thought that was a great idea and went with it. Yet I don't think I've ever heard Trump say publically that the Governments strategy is herd immunity. It's almost like he's keeping it a secret? Which is not like Trump at all. He ALWAYS says the quiet part loud.

I think even his dumb rear end realizes saying "A lot of people are gonna die, mostly old people." would have hurt him in the election. And at this point? He just doesn't give a poo poo, he's checked out except for getting credit for the vaccines that he deserves absolutely no credit for.

Dr.Caligari
May 5, 2005

"Here's a big, beautiful avatar for someone"
Is there any country that does have it under control ? It seems to me that a country will be praised for getting the numbers down, only for them to spike back up because people the danger has passed.

Has anyone got it down and kept it down ?

Shit Fuckasaurus
Oct 14, 2005

i think right angles might be an abomination against nature you guys
Lipstick Apathy

Dr.Caligari posted:

Is there any country that does have it under control ? It seems to me that a country will be praised for getting the numbers down, only for them to spike back up because people the danger has passed.

Has anyone got it down and kept it down ?

Isn't New Zealand still basically fine?

explosivo
May 23, 2004

Fueled by Satan

New Zealand and Australia I think are mostly back to normal. I was thinking about this last night how it's real weird that not everyone in the world is going day-to-day living in fear of leaving their homes.

Cacator
Aug 6, 2005

You're quite good at turning me on.

Taiwan
Population: 24 million
Cases: 603
Deaths: 7

For a non-island country:

Vietnam
Population: 95 million
Cases: 1283
Deaths: 35

Cacator fucked around with this message at 19:32 on Nov 16, 2020

canyoneer
Sep 13, 2005


I only have canyoneyes for you

Polio Vax Scene posted:

my cousin overdosed on vaccines and thats how you get autism trust me.

MANY SUCH CASES!

that's an all time great Trump tweet

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



explosivo posted:

New Zealand and Australia I think are mostly back to normal. I was thinking about this last night how it's real weird that not everyone in the world is going day-to-day living in fear of leaving their homes.

They're also headed into summer, so it's largely just their turn for a reprieve, not something magical about how the upside-down peoples have addressed the crisis. Give it a few months.

Hopper
Dec 28, 2004

BOOING! BOOING!
Grimey Drawer

Achtane posted:

My in-laws just put together a poker run that ended at their house. They're both prime targets for covid.
Also, their son who lives with them just started working at a bar in the city.

God drat, people.

Focus on the positive side of things: The inheritance will likely go to your spouse as sole remaining heir.

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames
I am dumb. So this Moderna vaccine is from a phase 3 trial and that is an efficacy number?

Strategic Tea
Sep 1, 2012

I think I am misunderstanding how the vaccine can be effective if even our beloved PM Bojo has just been reinfected?

Does that not mean that antibodies from the vaccine will be ineffective in a few months anyway?

dwarf74
Sep 2, 2012



Buglord

Strategic Tea posted:

I think I am misunderstanding how the vaccine can be effective if even our beloved PM Bojo has just been reinfected?

Does that not mean that antibodies from the vaccine will be ineffective in a few months anyway?
Johnson isn't confirmed to be reinfected, just isolating after a contact out of caution.

explosivo
May 23, 2004

Fueled by Satan

I guess that thing about the Gov Wolf announcement was bullshit sorry for the fake news :smith:

Ravendas
Sep 29, 2001




Cacator posted:

Taiwan
Population: 24 million
Cases: 603
Deaths: 7

For a non-island country:

Vietnam
Population: 95 million
Cases: 1283
Deaths: 35

My friends are in Taiwan and my inlaws are in Vietnam, and both are laughing at my dumb idiot rear end in the US. Facebook pics where people are meeting each other safely and happily on the other side of the world stings in comparison to our reality here.

Green Nail Polish
Nov 15, 2020

poverty goat posted:

They're also headed into summer, so it's largely just their turn for a reprieve, not something magical about how the upside-down peoples have addressed the crisis. Give it a few months.

Australia's success has absolutely nothing to do with the weather.

Aus/NZ's lockdowns, testing, and tracing are actually competent, vs the incompetent response in America and elsewhere.

In a few months Australia, New Zealand, China, and Taiwan will leagues better than America because they have addressed the crisis like reasonable adults. You are correct that it isn't magic.

RudeCat
Aug 7, 2012

The rudest cat for the rudest jobs


CaptainCrunch posted:

Here’s a question.

Can an individual take more than one of these vaccines?
IE the 90% one becomes available in my area and I go to the Doc and he jabs it in my arm.
2 months later another becomes available that’s 97% effective. Would it be worth it, or even safe to get that one administered?

Just curious if diminishing returns kicks in at all.

Based off my research in Big Pharma it ends up causing anal leakage.

AFewBricksShy
Jun 19, 2003

of a full load.



explosivo posted:

I guess that thing about the Gov Wolf announcement was bullshit sorry for the fake news :smith:

Jim Kenney from Philly had one. You had the right idea, just the wrong authority figure.

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Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

poverty goat posted:

They're also headed into summer, so it's largely just their turn for a reprieve, not something magical about how the upside-down peoples have addressed the crisis. Give it a few months.

With summer it's getting easier so the hardest time, the time when they managed almost complete suppression was the winter time where the rest of the world is completely failing. You've got it backwards. By the time NZ/aus summer is over there will be a vaccine available to assist the current containment efforts.

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