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Maybe this is like "We should start working on climate change as rapidly as we can."
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Nov 25, 2020 06:07
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Cugel the Clever posted:The news has had a few stories reporting on scientists who've concluded that kids being in school isn't a significant vector, but that seems to run against basic common sense for how an airborne contagion works. I'm too lazy to do basic things like look into the researchers or the studies themselves, or even read past the headlines, so any of the following could be true: https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1330445312289345536
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Nov 25, 2020 06:32
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Saw headline "Thanksgiving could make or break US coronavirus response." I thought we were already at the utter failure stage. Yeah, I'd like to see them point to this graph and indicate the point where they think they're going to "make" it  Of course if their argument was "Hey maybe if we gently caress this up REALLY badly we'll be a lot closer to herd immunity, even though millions of people will die" then they might have a point but that's more of a "make and/or break" point. 
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Nov 25, 2020 06:46
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Lazyhound posted:I nearly ended up in the ER last night, during a huge covid surge.  
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Nov 25, 2020 07:01
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Yeah, I'd like to see them point to this graph and indicate the point where they think they're going to "make" it Yeah! I mean ok, ICU beds are almost full basically everywhere and yes, they've slowly and reluctantly confirmed more than a quarter million deaths already but herd immunity is probably definitely right around the corner! I mean we're almost halfway there by now for sure right? Ah wait, I must have lost a few zeroes somewhere. Johns Hopkins reports 12.5 million cases in the US so far and that's only about a third of one percent of the population so that herd immunity might be a ways off still. In that case, let me say A THIRD OF A PERCENT? WHAT'S THE BIG DEAL? OPEN! ER! UP! HAPPY THANKSGIVING AND GOD BLESS AMERICA
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Nov 25, 2020 07:25
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greazeball posted:12.5 million cases in the US so far and that's only about a third of one percent of the population How many people do you think live in the U.S.?
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Nov 25, 2020 07:27
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Ah gently caress, well spotted... those pesky zeroes are at it again! It's true that 3% of the population is much closer to herd immunity we're definitely getting closer now. Just one more BIG infection wave... ugh I can't keep the bit up, it's so depressing. Stay safe everybody and happy Thanksgiving 
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Nov 25, 2020 07:40
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Platystemon posted:Have you had stones before? No, but I’d noticed a mild discomfort around my left kidney a few times over the last couple of weeks that I had suspicions about, I was going to bring it up with my doctor next week but welp. It was a level of pain where your brain just shuts down. Like, I registered two hours of time as a subjective 15-20 minutes. Lazyhound fucked around with this message at 07:50 on Nov 25, 2020 |
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Nov 25, 2020 07:47
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greazeball posted:Ah gently caress, well spotted... those pesky zeroes are at it again! It's true that 3% of the population is much closer to herd immunity we're definitely getting closer now. Just one more BIG infection wave... ugh I can't keep the bit up, it's so depressing. Stay safe everybody and happy Thanksgiving Herd immunity requires anywhere from 60% to 80% immune, depending on how contagious the virus is. So 12.5 million down, 250 million more to go.
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Nov 25, 2020 07:49
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Cugel the Clever posted:The news has had a few stories reporting on scientists who've concluded that kids being in school isn't a significant vector, but that seems to run against basic common sense for how an airborne contagion works. I'm too lazy to do basic things like look into the researchers or the studies themselves, or even read past the headlines, so any of the following could be true: happy thanksgiving!
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Nov 25, 2020 07:54
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Stunt_enby posted:there's pretty much no reason to assume it isn't. If you accept that kids can spread it then you have to close down the schools, then their parents have to stay home from work to mind them, and the government would have to give them financial support and corporations would slow down and lose profits. People's lives are much less important than corporate profits in the US of A, this should be extremely obvious to everyone at this point.
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Nov 25, 2020 08:10
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Schools are less significant transmission vectors than bars or restaurants because exposure to the same 20 people every day doesn't count as 20 new exposures. When the school year started, my napkin math said to expect one covid incident per school every two weeks. This isn't scientific at all, but talking with teachers I know put that as an overestimate, so I'd guess children just have fewer opportunities for exposure than the general population. There are no biological reasons for it, it's only that number of unique contacts for a kid in a classroom is relatively small. Spending 6 hours a day in the same room is irrelevant if no one in that room is sick, and that was a good bet until the recent surge.
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Nov 25, 2020 08:13
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Lazyhound posted:No, but I’d noticed a mild discomfort around my left kidney a few times over the last couple of weeks that I had suspicions about, I was going to bring it up with my doctor next week but welp. are you sure you didn't pass out? Blorange posted:Schools are less significant transmission vectors than bars or restaurants because exposure to the same 20 people every day doesn't count as 20 new exposures. When the school year started, my napkin math said to expect one covid incident per school every two weeks. This isn't scientific at all, but talking with teachers I know put that as an overestimate, so I'd guess children just have fewer opportunities for exposure than the general population. I doubt this, it's just that kids get tested less, and develop obvious symptoms less. they're still passing it on to more vulnerable people at massive rates, we just don't have statistics on it because we're being lied to constantly by our government
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Nov 25, 2020 08:16
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Blorange posted:This isn't scientific at all, but Seroprevalence and contact tracing in countries where the pandemic is mostly under control show that kids can catch and transmit the virus just as easily as adults, but they're also MUCH less likely to show symptoms. Kids simply aren't being tested at the same rate as adults, which goes a heck of a long way to explain why outbreaks aren't being traced back to schools. It's not that they're not happening, it's just that no one bothered to actually check. The big outbreak we had here in Melbourne a few months back had a school right in the centre of it: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-09/al-taqwa-college-coronavirus-covid19-cluster-melbourne-truganina/12437584 Blorange posted:Schools are less significant transmission vectors than bars or restaurants because exposure to the same 20 people every day doesn't count as 20 new exposures. They're also getting secondary exposure to all those kids' families and friends, plus any sports teams or extra-curricular events they take part in. Kids don't live alone.
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Nov 25, 2020 08:23
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Just as a matter of interest, what happens if you get the covid vaccine and have already had the actual disease? I'm just thinking about asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic cases and worrying if there's likely to be any problems there. It's in my mind because I remember having to skip the BCG at school because of (presumably) a previous, silent TB infection (thanks 70s/80s east end of London!) and I know they test for that exact reason, because the chances of a massive reaction if you already have antibodies. However I also know the BCG is fairly unique in that respect, which is why they test - is it just something up with that particular vaccine that they can safely discount for all of the covid vaccines?
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Nov 25, 2020 08:26
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Some people in the big pfizer and moderna trials no doubt had had covid, and nothing bad happened. They likely have hard numbers on this because they swab and take blood before they give you the first shot, but I don't think they've released it.
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Nov 25, 2020 08:36
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I feel lucky that in missouri my son is in preschool with one other kid in his class. His primary teacher is a cancer survivor and her curtness in handing off our son is appreciated and understood. When I go to pick him up the classroom next door has six kids plus the teacher. As the one loudmouth parent out of the six walks down the hall loudly proclaiming her intention to flout mandates for youth honkey a quick facial poll from the other five is a real what is your goddamn problem. You don't need a stats degree to see those probabilities
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Nov 25, 2020 08:51
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I'm gonna let that youth honkey typo stand in the previous post. But it was youth hockey.
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Nov 25, 2020 08:52
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Just as a matter of interest, what happens if you get the covid vaccine and have already had the actual disease? I'm just thinking about asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic cases and worrying if there's likely to be any problems there. The vaccine tests have all included people who have test positive for COVID19 previously and also people who had antibodies indicating they'd been unknowingly exposed previously. I've never heard about what you're talking about, but it must be limited to that vaccine. Imagine having to worry about a flu shot overlapping with influenza you've had previously or whatever. Stunt_enby posted:there's pretty much no reason to assume it isn't. if there are any science types who know better than me, feel free to destroy me with facts and logic, but my (admittedly limited) understanding is that current theory for covid transmission is aerosolized droplets hanging around in air that are created when people talk/cough/breathe, (masks minimize this, but without a proper fit and filtration it's not 100%) and in an enclosed space without adequate ventilation and/or with AC running to spread air around the room, they're just going to build up in the air everyone is breathing. maybe if everyone was wearing a full face respirator with proper filters changed monthly, (since they'd be getting used around 8 hours a day assuming normal class times) but given how many adults refuse to wear masks and how many states/businesses are happy to let them get away with it, i'm assuming teenagers aren't going to be very compliant either. combine that with how many districts want to pretend this isn't happening or that it's not a big deal or know it's a big deal and want to straight up hotswap teachers to insanely and brutally murder as many of them and their families as possible and it's a grim picture. As with many things currently, it's a little hard to come to a consensus because there are so many studies with little consistency as to the methods and it's basically all over the place. There does seem to be a lot of evidence that younger children by and large don't seem to get sick in the same way that many adults do and likely aren't shedding the virus from deep in their lungs nearly as much as an adult or teenager. Similarly the evidence currently seems to indicate that adults who never become symptomatic aren't major spreaders of the virus either. Most of the reports of asymptotic spreaders seem to be of people who were pre-symptomatic and later did develop symptoms. Probably worth mentioning that the only vaccine I'm aware of that was tested on Children was the Chinese one, so kids in most of the world won't be getting vaccinated anytime in the next year or so, if ever.
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Nov 25, 2020 08:59
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John_A_Tallon posted:Herd immunity requires anywhere from 60% to 80% immune, depending on how contagious the virus is. So 12.5 million down, 250 million more to go. At this rate we'll hit herd immunity in just shy of 7 years! :whoop:
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Nov 25, 2020 09:02
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John_A_Tallon posted:Herd immunity requires anywhere from 60% to 80% immune, depending on how contagious the virus is. So 12.5 million down, 250 million more to go. In reality there's probably been between 30 to 50 million infected in the US, so only 200 million to go!
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Nov 25, 2020 09:04
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Hadlock posted:At this rate we'll hit herd immunity in just shy of 7 years! :whoop: Nah, exponential growth should sort it out in a few months
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Nov 25, 2020 09:04
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I can potentially believe that early years/young primary school settings aren't major spreaders because the disease really *does* seem to be very different in children and adults. If you just went by symptoms, Covid in a toddler and Covid in a pensioner would appear to be completely different illnesses. It doesn't affect the lungs in the same way, so it's very feasible it won't get into the air in the same way Teens and up though....
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Nov 25, 2020 12:04
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The high school I work at has seen its share of covid cases among students, but no transmission at school (so far). We ventilate the classrooms, everyone wears masks, and there’s gel in every room. Students disinfect their own table at the beginning of each period, and we had to extend lunch hours so we can ensure enough distance in the cafeteria. Student compliance is pretty good, honestly. Much better than I could hope, and I only have to tell a few of them (repeatedly, every few minutes) to keep their mask on their nose. Since September, I was convinced that schools, and high schools in particular, were just a powder keg waiting for a spark, but honestly it has not been the case. Universities, on the other hand...
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Nov 25, 2020 12:24
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HerStuddMuffin posted:The high school I work at has seen its share of covid cases among students, but no transmission at school
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Nov 25, 2020 12:36
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South Australia had an outbreak scare last week but ended lockdown early and opened up on Monday. Wednesday evening they had a report of a new case ..... at a school. All the kids who attended the school on Monday now have to isolate immediately with their entire family until further notice. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-25/one-new-coronavirus-case-found-in-adelaide-school-student/12921130 Fatkraken posted:I can potentially believe that early years/young primary school settings aren't major spreaders because the disease really *does* seem to be very different in children and adults. If you just went by symptoms, Covid in a toddler and Covid in a pensioner would appear to be completely different illnesses. According to the American Academy of Pediatrics the number of children in the US who are reported to have coronavirus is nearly 9% of the total number of cases, and increasing. Also keep in mind this is just the reported cases and the number of actual cases will necessarily be significantly higher. quote:Cases of COVID-19 in U.S. children have shown a record increase in the most recent reporting period, according to the latest weekly report from the AAP and the Children’s Hospital Association (CHA). quote:Testing data from 10 states revealed that children made up 5%-16.9% of total state COVID-19 tests, and 3.6%-14.6% were positive. Iceland were able to test a massive percentage of their population and get a really broad spectrum of results, which showed that young kids are really susceptible to catching the virus and passing it along even if they didn't exhibit symptoms: quote:- Up to 50% of people who had COVID-19 in Iceland were asymptomatic after health officials did broad lab testing of the population there.
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Nov 25, 2020 12:41
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:The UK are also considering a coronavirus 'freedom pass' system where people would be allowed to walk around maskless if they've tested negative ICHIBAHN posted:No they aren't lol Update: yes they are, LOL. And it's even dumber than we'd expected. quote:People who test negative for Covid-19 in community-wide testing in certain regions of the U.K. may face fewer restrictions — including the ability to meet up with others who have also tested negative — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Monday while outlining the country’s new coronavirus rules. quote:- The British leaders, however, admitted that the system was “untried” and there were many “unknowns.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladi...sh=2e7337ce6947 Congratz to everyone who doubted the story and were willing to give Boris Johnson the benefit of the doubt that he wouldn't do the dumbest, most irresponsible thing possible, despite his long and storied history of continually doing the dumbest, most irresponsible thing at every opportunity.
Snowglobe of Doom fucked around with this message at 13:40 on Nov 25, 2020 |
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Nov 25, 2020 13:38
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hydrocarbonenema posted:Yes! Good to see the Scandinavians gently caress up for once. That's not the only fuckup in this saga. The government first tried to keep the business alive and paused the culling of infected mink for months, then turned around and ordered all of them culled, managing to ignite a constitutional crisis in the process as it didn't have the necessary powers to do so, but went ahead anyway. The EPA is now doing tests to see if the 18 million rotting plague mink will contaminate the groundwater in some way, after burying, exhuming and reburying them deeper.
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Nov 25, 2020 13:44
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Why did they bury them and not incinerate them, as is usual for culled pigs/chickens when a disease breaks out?
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Nov 25, 2020 14:32
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Mithaldu posted:Given that ~half the cases are asymptomatic, and the percentage goes up the younger you get ... how do you know there was no transmission? Students who simply happen to be in the same class are not considered contacts because everyone wears masks in class. So they don’t get tested. Even so, there have not been cases among students (yet) that were of unknown origin. If there was transmission in school, there would have been cases like this. It surprised me too. Like I said, I was being very loud back in September about how reopening high schools had pandemic written all over it, but I have to admit it has not (yet) turned out this way. I still find the brutal drop in new cases here (France) over the last two weeks incredible to say the least (88000 cases and rising to 30000 and dropping in the span of a single day!) but unless I’m going to go all “jet fuel can’t melt covid” I have to accept the facts and figures.
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Nov 25, 2020 14:34
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Molentik posted:Why did they bury them and not incinerate them, as is usual for culled pigs/chickens when a disease breaks out? Same reason they were hesitant to cull the minks, or bury them more than three feet underground. 
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Nov 25, 2020 14:36
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HerStuddMuffin posted:When a student tests positive, all their contacts get tested. Yeah I'm gonna call bullshit on this. Masks reduce risk but they're not a 100% guarantee of safety, especially if they're in a room together for an extended period of time. If they're not testing all the classmates they absolutely cannot rule out that one of them passed it along asymptomatically. You can't assume that no student has been infected by a classmate if you never searched for evidence that they may have been infected by a classmate, that's just wishful thinking.
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Nov 25, 2020 14:48
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HerStuddMuffin posted:I have to accept the facts and figures.
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Nov 25, 2020 14:55
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If you never test students, then you never see any unexplained cases of transmission between students. Bing bong so simple, keep the schools open no matter how many die as a result.
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Nov 25, 2020 14:59
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Yeah I'm gonna call bullshit on this. Masks reduce risk but they're not a 100% guarantee of safety, especially if they're in a room together for an extended period of time. If they're not testing all the classmates they absolutely cannot rule out that one of them passed it along asymptomatically. The most frustrating thing in all this is how, with masks as the most visible protective measure, everyone assesses how well or badly a response is going based on how many masks they see. "My city is a disaster zone! I saw TEN PEOPLE on the train this morning not wearing masks" "In Scandistan everyone breathes from a private oxygen tank, why aren't we as good as them..."
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Nov 25, 2020 15:04
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Context is probably everything here. I have a hard time believing Biden's intent here is "we should open schools before Christmas" or anything trumpian like that. Should we open the schools when it's safe? Absolutely. Should we open the schools before it's safe, ignoring the best available science? Absolutely not, and I don't for a minute believe that's what Biden meant either.
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Nov 25, 2020 15:17
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I said early that once a majority of people know someone who tested positive and had a bad time or hospitalization they will wake up, and its finally happened... Converting them from "its a hoax" to "plandemic! It is all a plot by the deep state/illuminati/NWO to force the election this way and chip us and force a vaccine!"
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Nov 25, 2020 15:30
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Der Shovel posted:Context is probably everything here. Here's the interview in question, the question about schools comes in at about 7:01: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRoT7iDGXVE&t=421s He says that it's going to cost between $150 to 200 billion to safely open the schools, which would involve changing the ventilation systems, training the staff and providing them with PPE, smaller class 'modules', etc
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Nov 25, 2020 15:37
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Here's the interview in question, the question about schools comes in at about 7:01: So....is that worth it? If doing all of that with that cost (it will of course run over) to open schools in lets say...March, wouldn't it make more sense to keep the schools closed until the end of the school year and hopefully have them open in Fall 2021 normally or with way less upgrades required due to the vaccine?
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Nov 25, 2020 15:41
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Lol at anyone dumb enough to believe any of that will happen, except maybe for a handful of private schools attended by the children of elected officials.
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Nov 25, 2020 15:44
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