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Sinteres posted:So did other people read my post as whitewashing ethnic cleansing too, or just Helsing? I can live without posting for a day, but I don't think that was a fair characterization of what I said. Eh, you were downplaying a situation that's pretty clearly ethnic cleansing. The people who have left have no good reason to believe that they would safe under the new regime, and plenty of reason to believe that they would, at best, be oppressed. Like, this popped up on my feed: https://twitter.com/Zinvor/status/1327303352951197699. It's not a good scene, is what I'm saying. The language of genocide is all of this conflict, one way or the other. This is not a situation where the Azeris could have expected to win without permanently displacing the local population.
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Nov 15, 2020 18:32
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Sinteres posted:So did other people read my post as whitewashing ethnic cleansing too, or just Helsing? I can live without posting for a day, but I don't think that was a fair characterization of what I said. Ya I def felt that you were making it look a bit too coincidental how all those Armenians are "choosing" to leave now. e: ^^^^ yeah what he said
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Nov 15, 2020 18:41
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Haystack posted:Eh, you were downplaying a situation that's pretty clearly ethnic cleansing. The people who have left have no good reason to believe that they would safe under the new regime, and plenty of reason to believe that they would, at best, be oppressed. The only reason I'm skeptical of Sumgait being a reference to the massacre is the version that is taught in Azerbaijan is that the Armenians did it to themselves.
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Nov 15, 2020 19:11
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Sinteres posted:So did other people read my post as whitewashing ethnic cleansing too, Yes.
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Nov 15, 2020 19:24
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I'd try to do a better job of explaining what I meant, but it's not worth getting probated over again, so I'll just stop posting ITT.
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Nov 15, 2020 19:37
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Vasukhani posted:The only reason I'm skeptical of Sumgait being a reference to the massacre is the version that is taught in Azerbaijan is that the Armenians did it to themselves. Oh so this is yet another attempt of Armenia to pin the event on the azers! I am a good poster and not influenced by state propaganda
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Nov 15, 2020 19:58
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Sinteres posted:So did other people read my post as whitewashing ethnic cleansing too, or just Helsing? I can live without posting for a day, but I don't think that was a fair characterization of what I said. I think one could attempt to make that argument, perhaps given the map previously (curious the source, however), but it's a VERY delicate subject. Judging from the map and the terms of the ceasefire the Armenians still hold sway over Mardakert and Stepanakert where the bulk of the Armenian population resided prior to the original NK conflict. It would help to have an overlay of NK over that map. The districts surrounding NK, besides being internationally recognized as Azerbaijan, had a overwhelmingly Azeri makeup and they were driven out in the 1990s with essentially nothing with their abandon villages plundered afterwards. We see this striking report of Armenians in Kalbajar burning their homes, but it is not clear that was their home originally. It's a cloudy situation from many angles and depends on the starting point of the timeframe for analysis. There's a fair number of Armenians who's only memories are of growing up in that particular geographic space in time. What is clear is that if you are an Armenian in one of the districts being returned to Azerbaijan proper that of course you are going to run, whether you have a rightful claim to a homestead or not. It would really strain my imagination to think that retribution against Armenians would be dealt with impartial justice by the Azeri authorities. It is notoriously corrupt there (I filed a criminal report at an Azeri police station once and it was stressful). So yes, there is an element of ethnic cleansing occurring.
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Nov 15, 2020 20:00
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Oh so this is yet another attempt of Armenia to pin the event on the azers! I am a good poster and not influenced by state propaganda No? Read literally any of my posts. My point was I could see an azeri shooting up a car, spray painting swastikas on it, and putting the name of their home town on it, without ever realizing the meaning of that town to the Armenians. Seriously, the attitude of Azeri nationalists is literally wishing that all the crimes they deny had actually happened.
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Nov 15, 2020 20:03
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Vasukhani posted:The only reason I'm skeptical of Sumgait being a reference to the massacre is the version that is taught in Azerbaijan is that the Armenians did it to themselves. Do they actually believe it? Or is it one of those "We did no such a thing, anyway they deserved what they got, and worse" kinda things?
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Nov 15, 2020 20:21
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Vasukhani posted:No? Read literally any of my posts. My point was I could see an azeri shooting up a car, spray painting swastikas on it, and putting the name of their home town on it, without ever realizing the meaning of that town to the Armenians. Seriously, the attitude of Azeri nationalists is literally wishing that all the crimes they deny had actually happened. I know, that's the joke I was making.
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Nov 15, 2020 20:26
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steinrokkan posted:Do they actually believe it? Or is it one of those "We did no such a thing, anyway they deserved what they got, and worse" kinda things? They blaimed some armenian petty criminals for doing it. Of course, the people there actually saw what happened, but that was already 30 years ago. Baku is less easy to whitewash, the usual story there is that it was a KGB op gone wrong. Most of the Azeri national memory focuses on the (pretty light) soviet military action to stop the pogroms. Here's how the Western media reacted, btw: quote:It is accepted wisdom among Sumgait's Azerbaijani majority that the riots Feb. 27, 28 and 29 were deliberately contrived by Armenian extremists in order to discredit Azerbaijan in the battle for the world's sympathy. Or as George Soros wrote: quote:It is not far-fetched to speculate that the first pogroms against Armenians in Azerbaijan were instigated by the notorious local mafia, which is controlled by KGB official G.A. Alieev, in order to create a situation in which Gorbachev would lose, no matter what he did. He could not side with the Armenians, because by doing so he would alienate the Muslims, but by taking a neutral position he drove the Armenians, who would have been his natural supporters, into active opposition. WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:I know, that's the joke I was making. oh sorry  wisconsingreg fucked around with this message at 20:38 on Nov 15, 2020 |
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Nov 15, 2020 20:27
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I just get a rather Orientalism vibe from how this thread is going.
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Nov 15, 2020 20:57
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Yeah, reading the mostly non-controversial history of the past 30 years is pretty orientalist.
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Nov 15, 2020 21:17
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Saladman posted:I think there tends to be a statute of limitations on when "colonizers" become "basically natives", so if Palestinians end up getting control of the West Bank again in like 2300, then at that point the "colonists" will have been there for like 10 generations. If they get control of the West Bank like right now then that's a totally different story. Yeah I've come to this sort of thinking on my own. However illegally/immorally/awfully the land was taken in the first place, if you're the 3rd generation of a family living in a place then its effectively yours simply because you don't know anything else. The 1st generation actively took the place. The 2nd generation are born in the new land but get brought up on tales of the old and what their parents did. The 3rd generation are totally local: anything they're taught about the former motherland is very abstract as they only know where they are now. Taking this 3rd generation and saying "go home" is absurd and I think morally wrong, even if it was a terrible wrong that allowed their grandparents to seize the land in the first place. Basically, forcing people to move is bad. There's some circumstances where there's another, much bigger bad that makes it acceptable/necessary however distasteful, but inflicting it on people born into their situation I think doesn't right any wrongs.
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Nov 15, 2020 23:25
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Rust Martialis posted:I just get a rather Orientalism vibe from how this thread is going. Talking about ongoing ethnic cleansing is orientalism? Or maybe I'm missing your point. i say swears online posted:that's sometimes a reason in denying the armenian genocide, that it happened just a bit too long ago to label it so I wasn't putting a statute of limitations on recognizing genocide or ethnic cleansing or whatever, but rather a statute of limitations on what (if any) reparations should be made. Turkey suddenly granting the Lake Van area back to the Armenians in reparation for the genocides of 1850s-1920s doesn't really seem right to me either, even if it was largely perpetrated by the great-great grandparents of the current inhabitants. What would be nice is to apologize, open the borders, and move on — but it doesn't look like that's going to come in the next 20+ years. It also depends on what has happened in the meantime to the descendants of those kicked out. Germans kicked out of Silesia and the Sudetenland are doing just as well as any other German at this point, Greeks kicked out of ancestral Smyrna are doing fine, and so forth. Obviously it's kind of lovely if your family has inhabited somewhere for 2500 years like the Greeks in coastal Turkey, even if you're doing fine now, but at some point "rolling back the clock" is both unjust and impractical. This same line of thinking also leads to stupid arguments along the lines of "why are black Americans bitching about their situation, their life is way better in the US than if they were in South Sudan" but it's certainly a popular one, but there's certainly a gray zone of reasonable argument somewhere in between black Americans in the USA and Silesian-Germans in Cologne. The "statute of limitations" also of course instigates war, since you have a time limit on which your conquest will be more internationally acceptable, like Azerbaijan right now, or Arab states against Israel in '67.
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Nov 17, 2020 12:05
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Forensic Architecture just put together a video reconstruction of the Beirut Port Explosion, and it's honestly one of the most grotesque displays of negligence I've ever seen. They pretty much let a giant improvised bomb get build in a warehouse in the middle of Beirut https://forensic-architecture.org/investigation/beirut-port-explosion https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3s54_MF2XPk Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 12:36 on Nov 17, 2020 |
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Nov 17, 2020 12:11
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What new information or insight have they provided? Seems like a lot of effort but what exactly was the research?
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Nov 17, 2020 12:24
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It brings together a lot of what was already known, for me the main thing was identifying the four sources of smoke and what they likely related to in the warehouse, which demonstrates the storage of items together created the environment in the warehouse that led to the detonation of the ammonium nitrate. It also gives the people taking legal action some solid analysis of the explosion that can be used in their case, and while it might appear obvious to us what happened when it comes to explaining it to a court or in another type of legal proceeding it's beneficial to have it laid out like that. I've been working with the ICC on the use of open source evidence in courts, and one thing that has become very apparent is you have to assume the judge has never even heard of this sort of analysis before, so it has to be explained like this from scratch every time you present it to the court, and it's likely that experience would be the same in a range of courts, so videos like this, backed up with additional analysis and evidence, can be very valuable.
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Nov 17, 2020 12:29
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Saladman posted:I wasn't putting a statute of limitations on recognizing genocide or ethnic cleansing or whatever, but rather a statute of limitations on what (if any) reparations should be made. Turkey suddenly granting the Lake Van area back to the Armenians in reparation for the genocides of 1850s-1920s doesn't really seem right to me either, even if it was largely perpetrated by the great-great grandparents of the current inhabitants. What would be nice is to apologize, open the borders, and move on — but it doesn't look like that's going to come in the next 20+ years. It also depends on what has happened in the meantime to the descendants of those kicked out. Germans kicked out of Silesia and the Sudetenland are doing just as well as any other German at this point, Greeks kicked out of ancestral Smyrna are doing fine, and so forth. Obviously it's kind of lovely if your family has inhabited somewhere for 2500 years like the Greeks in coastal Turkey, even if you're doing fine now, but at some point "rolling back the clock" is both unjust and impractical. This same line of thinking also leads to stupid arguments along the lines of "why are black Americans bitching about their situation, their life is way better in the US than if they were in South Sudan" but it's certainly a popular one, but there's certainly a gray zone of reasonable argument somewhere in between black Americans in the USA and Silesian-Germans in Cologne. Usually there's actually a perfectly good solution available but either one or both sides aren't willing to consider due to nationalistic bullshit. E: Unless there's a strong daddy leader to keep everyone in line 
mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Nov 17, 2020 |
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Nov 17, 2020 14:33
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If Armenia was strong enough it would absolutely take back all territory in Turkey and elsewhere. If Armenia proper didn't have a Russian guarantee, then there'd be at the very least a huge rear end corridors to AZ's exclave. If Russia suddenly has no army anymore, Crimea would be back in Ukraine next week. And the status quo between Armenia and Azerbaijan held precisely until they felt strong enough to do something about it. That happened despite that fact that Armenia somehow figured the status quo would magically persist. Until there's an actual resolution, any status quo is a status quo as long as someone with enough weapons and manpower says it is. In that sense, the only stable status quo is when both sides are roughly equal such that any war would be costly.
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Nov 17, 2020 19:18
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how much territory we talkin here? I wanna a see an armenia stretch from Istanbul to isfahan, and all the way down to jerusalem
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Nov 17, 2020 23:58
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so do any of the other frozen conflicts look like they might get hot?
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Nov 18, 2020 00:01
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Smirking_Serpent posted:so do any of the other frozen conflicts look like they might get hot?
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Nov 18, 2020 01:05
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Smirking_Serpent posted:so do any of the other frozen conflicts look like they might get hot? Yes
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Nov 18, 2020 01:27
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Smirking_Serpent posted:so do any of the other frozen conflicts look like they might get hot?
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Nov 18, 2020 04:26
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Smirking_Serpent posted:so do any of the other frozen conflicts look like they might get hot? yeah maybe https://twitter.com/ReutersIran/status/1328948065714253824
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Nov 18, 2020 07:28
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quote:Conricus, briefing foreign reporters, said three claymore anti-personnel charges were discovered on Tuesday near an Israeli military position in the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau captured and occupied by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war.
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Nov 18, 2020 08:06
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quote:The 29th Japanese Infantry Regiment explained that the attack on the railway was carried out by Chinese civilians at the guidance of radical nationalist organizations
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Nov 18, 2020 10:39
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https://www.euractiv.com/section/ar...aster-for-iran/ I had no idea Israel and Azerbaijan were cooperating closely. BTW Iranian intelligence should've seen the war nearing and bringing this outcome. To have a say now, they should have backed up Armenia when it mattered, probably militarily.
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Nov 24, 2020 17:22
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Doctor Malaver posted:To have a say now, they should have backed up Armenia when it mattered, probably militarily. nah
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Nov 24, 2020 17:30
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Doctor Malaver posted:https://www.euractiv.com/section/ar...aster-for-iran/ quote:It reveals to the Iranian people that Iran no longer has the economic might, technological sophistication or an alluring political model to influence a region that was under Persian influence for hundreds of years – one is tempted to say thousands of years, since the time of the Achaemenid empire. Thanks Obama.
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Nov 24, 2020 18:41
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There's no real movement for the Azeri's in Iran to join Azerbaijan politically but there would have been blood in the streets of Tabriz if Iran went to war with Baku.
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Nov 24, 2020 18:58
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Zedhe Khoja posted:There's no real movement for the Azeri's in Iran to join Azerbaijan politically but there would have been blood in the streets of Tabriz if Iran went to war with Baku. And I don't think Iran really wants more domestic problems. They are dealing with massive inflation, Covid 19 etc. It's not a defensible position to join the losing side in a war when your economy is in tatters.
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Nov 24, 2020 19:16
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Yeah...it is unclear exactly what Iran is losing here besides "prestige." Iran never really had that much pull in Baku and/or the former Soviet Union in the first place. Also, it seems like the "corridor" through Armenian territory isn't a change of sovereignty, but is a right of access which means it really shouldn't conflict with Iranian. It is actually a bit unclear how it effects Iran besides avoiding unrest in Tebriz. It most of the article seems to be spin.
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Nov 24, 2020 20:48
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Also probably wouldn't want to damage their relationship with Turkey, which is somewhat strained due to both countries' entanglement in the Syrian Civil War, but not nearly as antagonistic as many people seem to assume on little other basis than one country being majority Sunni and the other Shii'ite (realizing that Sunni and Shia are a thing in the Islamic world is a useful step to understanding the Middle East, but giving it too much weight in diplomacy and foreign relations is close to as big a mistake as not considering the split in the first place, not to mention that Islam and the Islamic World is much more complex than just Sunni/Shia), in recent history Turkey has been pretty important to Iran both as a trading partner and as a conduit for negotiation with the West.
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Nov 25, 2020 00:26
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More importantly it's where Tehran gets all its booze. Thats a sacred relationship.
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Nov 25, 2020 00:38
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https://twitter.com/axios/status/1331583486080258048Axios posted:The Israeli government instructed the IDF to undertake the preparations not because of any intelligence or assessment that Trump will order such a strike, but because senior Israeli officials anticipate “a very sensitive period” ahead of Biden's inauguration on Jan. 20.
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Nov 25, 2020 15:18
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Sinteres posted:It's really not as clear cut as that; I think ethnic cleansing, as opposed to population migration, requires intent on the part of the perpetrator or we really are defining these terms down into meaninglessness. Like if Azerbaijan was promising to kill every Armenian civilian left behind when they entered the territory, of course Armenians fleeing in advance of the Azeris' arrival would be victims of ethnic cleansing, but if Azerbaijan was just saying people who live in territory under their control will be required to obtain Azerbaijani citizenship, and ethnic Armenians prefer to remain Armenian citizens (or even leave because they fall prey to Armenian propaganda about brutal treatment they can expect under Azerbaijani rule), I don't think that qualifies even if everyone leaves. Of course there's some ambiguity between those two positions, where Armenians may well have rational concerns, and Azerbaijan may also have legitimate reasons to expel people from homes in some cases (say, for example, if they were homes Azeris lived in before their own expulsion by Armenians), so a lot of opinions about the culpability of Azerbaijan in this population movement will probably depend upon the legitimacy people think they have for initiating the war in the first place. Although I understand why this was probated I would rather have a rebuttal discussed instead of a knee jerk probation. His tone isn’t combative and this is a debate and discussion forum. This probation is not in the spirit of fostering debate and discussion.
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Nov 25, 2020 18:23
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celewign posted:Although I understand why this was probated I would rather have a rebuttal discussed instead of a knee jerk probation. His tone isn’t combative and this is a debate and discussion forum. Agreed. How does a country reclaim its territory militarily without comitting ethnic cleansing? What options did Azerbeijan have?
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Nov 25, 2020 23:18
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Mines exploded on oil tanker near SA/Yemeni border. Red sea side.
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Nov 25, 2020 23:37
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