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To try to answer my own question, I think what matters most is what happens in the weeks and months after the fighting stops. When Croatia attacked its occupied territory in 1995, most of Serbs fled right away in organized manner. Many thought it will be temporarily. IMO at that point it wasn't ethnic cleansing. Then the Croatian state showed it doesn't want them back, by turning a blind eye to various war crimes. The Serbs concluded it isn't safe to return and it became ethnic cleansing.
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Nov 25, 2020 23:38
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interesting interview placing the blame on why the arab spring largely failed on a lack of class based parties and structures: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/11/arab-spring-fundamentalism-corporatism-class-struggle-labor-power
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Nov 26, 2020 04:50
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First I’ll talk about what’s similar between Tunisia and the rest of the Arabic speaking countries. It had a vaguely Arab nationalist dictator, no political rights whatsoever, and a social contract in which people gave up their right to independently organize in exchange for some butter. And you had a working class that was, like everywhere else in the region, atomized and fragmented by neoliberalism. But for reasons specific to the history of Tunisia, there was a trade union confederation, the UGTT, which in Tunisia was able to survive and maintain some independence. This is in contrast to Syria and Egypt and elsewhere, where equivalent trade union confederations were completely absorbed by the state and became tools of the state. In the other countries you had two forces, masses of people and the dictator. But from the seventies onward, this trade union confederation kind of acted as a third force in Tunisian society. Another thing the UGTT did from the nineties onward was organize the informal sector and tie it to the formal sector in a way that gave the confederation some influence over that sector. Protests in Tunisia, 2011. So when the revolution took off in Tunisia, they were able to exert themselves in a way that the state-controlled union confederations in the other countries were not able to. One of the reasons why the dictator in Tunisia fell was because there was a strike, pushed by the rank and file, and eventually supported by the trade union confederation. If you look at Tunisia and Egypt, they almost parallel each other in their history up until 2013. But the difference here was there was a trade union confederation in Tunisia and a segment of the working class that had maintained its independence. It never surrendered it to the social contract over the previous forty years. And they were able to force a democratic transition.
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Nov 26, 2020 04:58
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Shageletic posted:First I’ll talk about what’s similar between Tunisia and the rest of the Arabic speaking countries. It had a vaguely Arab nationalist dictator, no political rights whatsoever, and a social contract in which people gave up their right to independently organize in exchange for some butter. And you had a working class that was, like everywhere else in the region, atomized and fragmented by neoliberalism. That's a whole bunch of words that don't touch the reality of the subject, and Jacobin in general is very out of touch with the realities of the Arab world because they only seem to talk to disaffected Arab socialists pushing an angle. Tunisia's revolution ended up with change for the simple reason that no one really cares about Tunisia. A lack of significant natural resources, a small population, negligible effect on Arab politics, and minimal reliance on Arab gulf royalty meant it had a negligible amoung of meddling from outside actors. From the start, Egypt was a major battleground in the proxy economic/influence fight between the Saudi/UAE royals and Qatar/Erdogan, with the ascendance of the MB or the military being dependent on currying support and funding from both factions. This led to a zero sum game between the MB and military that led to where Egypt as a country is right now, with the MB either in jail or outside the country, and with Turkey and Qatar being considered enemy states by the Egyptian regime. Ham fucked around with this message at 08:32 on Nov 26, 2020 |
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Nov 26, 2020 08:28
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Ham posted:That's a whole bunch of words that don't touch the reality of the subject, and Jacobin in general is very out of touch with the realities of the Arab world because they only seem to talk to disaffected Arab socialists pushing an angle. Tunisia's revolution ended up with change for the simple reason that no one really cares about Tunisia. It also took everyone by surprise and was incredibly fast between protests and Ben Ali high-tailing it out of there. The lack of a strong and political military in Tunisia probably also helped, as they don't have their tendrils in all aspects of civil society like in Egypt and Myanmar. It happened so fast and so unexpectedly that there was just no way for Qatar or Turkey to do much. There also seems to be an alternate universe timeline in the Jacobin article. The quote is directly "one of the reasons why the dictator in Tunisia fell was because there was a strike" but as far as I can tell, he was gone before any significant strike had happened. Some lawyers went on strike on 6 January and Sfax (a major-ish town in the center coast) went on general strike on 12 January, and Ben Ali left on the 14th. There was no general UGTT strike call until ten days after Ben Ali was already gone as far as I can tell ( https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%E9volution_tunisienne#Appels_%E0_la_gr%E8ve ; the English wiki on the revolution has way less detail) and there's no way a general strike in Sfax would have been the impetus for him to leave — that'd be like Macron leaving because of a general strike in Marseille. UGTT might have been instrumental in having a decent transition afterwards, but honestly the Muslim Brotherhood deserves some credit for that too. I disagree with basically all of their policies, but they were reasonably democratic in Tunisia, unlike Morsi who seemed hell-bent on setting up a dictatorship. (Not to defend Sisi, he's awful too, but I am pretty sure Morsi would have spent decades in power if he could have.)
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Nov 26, 2020 12:02
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What actually is the evidence Morsi was setting himself up to be a dictator. It's what all the western press said of course, but sidelining Mubarak's pet judges was a necessary step in any attempt at breaking military rule. Using sweeping emergency powers to...put things to a vote by elected representatives without the input of an actual dictators unelected pawns has never struck me as all that extreme.
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Nov 26, 2020 13:34
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Zedhe Khoja posted:What actually is the evidence Morsi was setting himself up to be a dictator. It's what all the western press said of course, but sidelining Mubarak's pet judges was a necessary step in any attempt at breaking military rule. Using sweeping emergency powers to...put things to a vote by elected representatives without the input of an actual dictators unelected pawns has never struck me as all that extreme. https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-releases/egypt-president-morsi-changes-constitution-trample-rule-law "Amendments to Egypt’s Constitutional Declaration announced yesterday effectively grant the president unlimited powers, preventing any legal challenge of his decisions until the election of a new lower house of parliament (People’s Assembly) next year. The amendments also allow the President to take any actions and measures he deems necessary “to protect the country and the goals of the revolution”. [...] In addition, “the Law Protecting the Revolution”, also announced last night, would allow a newly appointed Public Prosecutor to detain people for up to six months in the name of “protecting the revolution,” while they are being investigated on charges related to provisions of the Penal Code on press and media offences, organising protests, worker’s strikes and “thuggery”. Such restrictive provisions have been routinely used to punish peaceful exercise of the rights to freedom of expression, assembly, and association. Under this decree reminiscent of the decried emergency law, people may be held for six months on spurious charges before they are finally brought to trial." There's a lot more too, keep reading the link. Morsi was a pretty bad guy, it was a pretty terrible choice all around for Egyptians. Disposing him by military guaranteed the loss of democratic rights, but leaving him in there was also a pretty slim chance for a bright future too.
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Nov 26, 2020 14:39
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Amnesty International posted:The new law also provides for the establishment of specialised prosecutors and investigative judges to examine such cases. Retrials after acquittals may be in exceptional circumstances permissible under international human rights standards when new evidence comes to light; however in practice Amnesty International is concerned that this new provision has the potential to be abused by the executive to undermine the judiciary, and the rights of the accused. So even in Amnestys framing the judiciary was already gearing up for another seizure of power after letting all the military butchers off. It relies on assuming that Mubaraks judiciary having control over every facet of government and veto power over it's democratic organs is somehow legitimate, and any challenge to it is tyrannical. Frankly Morsi should have just had all of the Mubarak judges shot instead of using pseudolegal work arounds, because those are only respected when done by western backed military dictators. lovely article asks for the actual military cabal to be strengthened lol.
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Nov 26, 2020 15:48
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Yeah if anything Morsi didn't purge hard enough
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Nov 26, 2020 15:53
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I was so hopeful with Morsi. I'm not a big fan of the Brotherhood but it was a combination of an actual election after years of "approve Mubarak or else!", and the sense I had that maybe the Brotherhood and Hamas would have an easier time communicating which would make it more likely that there'd be progress made between Israel and Hamas with them mediating... and then the coup, and all these people insisting that it wasn't a coup. Including some Egyptians I knew. Just a bummer all around.
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Nov 26, 2020 16:49
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What Morsi's intent was ultimately doesn't matter. He tried to erode the militaries power (either to become a dictator or an honest attempt at building better political institutions) and as a response they couped him and made sure no one would get the opportunity to try again. He made a power play and his opponent called his bluff. The rest is history.
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Nov 26, 2020 17:00
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Yeah, people have to come to terms that any transition to a better system in Egypt is either going to come through the same means that Morsi attempted to use (quickly trying to ram things through with whatever means before they can act), or violence. And that's true regardless of whether it's the MB or Socialists or what have you. The Egyptian high courts aren't reformable, because there's no mechanism to reform them that they don't have power to nullify. They aren't going to put a gun to their own head just because someone has a nice smile and the correct argument.
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Nov 26, 2020 18:29
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Zedhe Khoja posted:Yeah, people have to come to terms that any transition to a better system in Egypt is either going to come through the same means that Morsi attempted to use (quickly trying to ram things through with whatever means before they can act), or violence. And that's true regardless of whether it's the MB or Socialists or what have you. The Egyptian high courts aren't reformable, because there's no mechanism to reform them that they don't have power to nullify. They aren't going to put a gun to their own head just because someone has a nice smile and the correct argument. The whole system goes or it's pointless, is the lesson taken from 2011-2014. Not that the next generation will fare any better or trust "our military" any less. The only way I expect real change in this country is if a power vacuum happens with the Gulf royalties that erodes Sisi's strong economic backing and political bargaining power. Having MBS and MBZ on your side matters a whole lot.
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Nov 26, 2020 22:22
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So the UAE just implemented a visa ban on countries that don't recognize Israel lol https://twitter.com/HarunMaruf/status/1331894858781499392?s=19 The Pakistan one is huge. A large parte of the (slave like) workforce is Pakistani.
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Nov 27, 2020 11:54
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orange sky posted:So the UAE just implemented a visa ban on countries that don't recognize Israel lol The link to Israel recognition seems iffy, given that Kenya and Turkey are on that list, and Morocco and Mauritania aren't. And Qatar, although maybe Qatar is still banned. Also what's up with SOMALIA? Saladman fucked around with this message at 15:17 on Nov 27, 2020 |
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Nov 27, 2020 15:09
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Why is Somalia written in all caps like that?
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Nov 27, 2020 15:11
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Why is Somalia written in all caps like that?
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Nov 27, 2020 15:14
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It's the South Park pronunciation, UAE are big fans of Cartman.
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Nov 27, 2020 15:14
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So, uh, this happened: https://twitter.com/aliarouzi/status/1332322276692414465
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Nov 27, 2020 16:33
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orange sky posted:So the UAE just implemented a visa ban on countries that don't recognize Israel lol Reportedly this came after visitors were found to have used forged COVID certificates, a lot of them then testing positive. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55092387 quote:On another recent flight, from Nairobi to Dubai, about 100 Kenyans were reportedly found with similar falsified documents and half later tested positive at the airport, according to Kenyan website Nairobi news.
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Nov 27, 2020 16:52
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:So, uh, this happened: Yeah could be a fun few weeks before Biden is sworn in.
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Nov 27, 2020 17:02
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Count Roland posted:Yeah could be a fun few weeks before Biden is sworn in. Early guesses seem to lean towards this being a Netanyahu joint, not a Trump one. Still you're correct on the larger point. EDIT: Netanyahu isn't in my browser's spellcheck, which means nothing but still amuses me.
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Nov 27, 2020 17:16
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Early guesses seem to lean towards this being a Netanyahu joint, not a Trump one. Still you're correct on the larger point. I didn't mean to imply Trump was behind this. Only that Netanyahu in particular but other actors generally may try to make the most of Trump's remaining days in office.
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Nov 27, 2020 18:08
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is there any indication that biden will be anything but staunchly pro-israel?
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Nov 27, 2020 20:00
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V. Illych L. posted:is there any indication that biden will be anything but staunchly pro-israel? Israel has been pretty rapidly losing it's "untouchable bi-partisan Friend of America" status among Democrats in general, and among youth in particular. Bibi leaned 100% into making Israel policy a partisan, Republican issue, and I think that really opens the door to policy changes down the road. Biden, a Democrat who has hewed to the center of the party for his whole career, could probably be flexible on policy changes if it looks like that's where the party is heading. He probably also dislikes Bibi on a personal level, if that's worth anything. So not a lot of indication, but I imagine there could be possibilities.
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Nov 27, 2020 20:12
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Isn't Netanyahu going to jail or something, what happened to that
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Nov 27, 2020 20:14
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How are u posted:Israel has been pretty rapidly losing it's "untouchable bi-partisan Friend of America" status among Democrats in general, and among youth in particular. Bibi leaned 100% into making Israel policy a partisan, Republican issue, and I think that really opens the door to policy changes down the road. ok so no, then, yankeeland will keep funding their armed outpost in the middle east without serious condition
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Nov 27, 2020 20:17
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This guy was also killed near Tehran which is ballsy. In the past Mossad has done hits when these people leave Iran.
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Nov 27, 2020 20:20
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Throatwarbler posted:Isn't Netanyahu going to jail or something, what happened to that lol nah Benny Gantz was too spineless for that, so Netenyahu gets to keep being Prime Minister and thereby avoid prosecution until at least October 2021. e: oh no I guess not, Netenyahu got stripped of all his cabinet posts and the Knesset denied him immunity, so his trial gets going for real in December. PittTheElder fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Nov 27, 2020 |
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Nov 27, 2020 20:30
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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PittTheElder posted:lol nah Benny Gantz was too spineless for that, so Netenyahu gets to keep being Prime Minister and thereby avoid prosecution until at least October 2021.  I haven't followed the situation recently but It's gonna be an amazing end to a lovely year if he goes down with Trump!
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Nov 27, 2020 20:39
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His case has dragged on forever. It feels like it's spanned the entire Trump admin.
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Nov 27, 2020 20:41
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PittTheElder posted:lol nah Benny Gantz was too spineless for that, so Netenyahu gets to keep being Prime Minister and thereby avoid prosecution until at least October 2021. Not if he can keep COVID at a good simmer, ready to boil just at the time when getting him to testify would interfere with an emergency. Or so it seems like he's banking. I do hope you're right. People I wouldn't believe would go on a protest are out there every weekend on the roads, maybe that'll push enough of the right people to follow through on him.
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Nov 27, 2020 20:43
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I should say I know next to nothing about Israeli politics, I'm just regurgitating what's been posted in this thread before/what I read on wikipedia just now.
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Nov 27, 2020 20:45
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V. Illych L. posted:is there any indication that biden will be anything but staunchly pro-israel? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fGQBFtQoXU There's a very good chance he won't be staunchly pro-israel. He will most likely be rabidly pro-israel.
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Nov 27, 2020 21:00
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Gee I wonder if Biden's gonna still want that nuclear deal to be feasible if Israel keeps blowing up Iran's staff. FlamingLiberal posted:His case has dragged on forever. It feels like it's spanned the entire Trump admin.
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Nov 27, 2020 21:15
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Grouchio posted:I've been waiting for his annoying keister to go since 2009. For a long time I wondered why anyone put up with him in Israel since it just seemed counter to any actual growth and reconciliation with the region. Then we got trump and it made a lot more sense; especially now.
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Nov 27, 2020 21:17
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V. Illych L. posted:is there any indication that biden will be anything but staunchly pro-israel? Biden isn't going to come out and condemn Israel like Ilhan does. But it was already clear in the Obama years that the WH hated Netanyahu and saw him as a source of a lot of problems in the Mid East. Biden is a big believer in the Iran deal and Israel has spent the entire time trying to destroy that. Biden is likely to be the least supportive President to Israel in history. If Netanyahu goes then maybe he'll work closer with them but that's a while off. If we can get the Iran deal back up and going I don't think the Mid East is going to be much of a focus for Biden. The nations over there are making their own alliances with one another and don't really need the USA to support them either way.
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Nov 27, 2020 21:22
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Biden's Secretary of State pick seems to back up his words wrt the Iran deal. Whether or not Iran (or anyone) should trust our insanely disreputable executive office with anything longer term than 4 years is another question, though.
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Nov 27, 2020 21:39
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Grouchio posted:Gee I wonder if Biden's gonna still want that nuclear deal to be feasible if Israel keeps blowing up Iran's staff. I don't follow what you mean here. Why would Biden's desire for a feasible nuclear deal shift because scientists are getting assassinated?
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Nov 27, 2020 23:16
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Iran keeps pushing the tolerance level of the west by once again having another important scientist murdered in cold blood. When will they be stopped???
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Nov 27, 2020 23:51
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