|
Cold on a Cob posted:It'll burst the second I finally say "gently caress it" and dump every cent I have into housing on top of getting a 700k mortgage. You and me man - it's like the two keys to the football suitcase - the moment we get in - it's going to all crash down (haha jokes on everyone I just want to live in a home with my wife alone without roommates and I have allusions to becoming a landlord or to use the house for "investment" purposes lolololol)
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 15:41
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 22:15 |
|
|
Slotducks posted:the moment we get in - it's going to all crash down Now that I own property I am suddenly very invested in making sure the rest of you understand how good a deal renting is and how you should do it until I no longer own property 
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 16:23
|
|
|
I get a lot of people telling me how terrible Trudeau is because he’s increasing the national debt and this will somehow “ruin our country”. Why is Canada full of armchair economists and debt hawks who seem to think we have Weimar style inflation because our government is printing money? Now I’m not any better or smarter. But from my perspective inflation only happens when large amounts of people have lots of cash with which they’re chasing a series of increasingly rare products/resources. That’s not what I’m seeing here. Salaries are drying up, people have less money with the exception of white collar “WFH” employees. The government is paying emergency benefits that are barely enough to cover housing costs. Nobody is chasing rare resources. I mean historically all central banks have made it their mission to combat inflation and keep things at 1.5%. If anything we’ve been experiencing deflation. The only reason people seem to think there’s inflation is because companies have arbitrarily been raising prices on everything to max out their margins. That isn’t the fault of the Canadian government. At least not for the reasons people think (Debt). We have plenty of resources. Just not enough money for everyone to consume them. Personal debt is a problem because people think housing prices will go on forever so they can get equity on a home they went upside down on. Or they use debt to bridge the gap between their cost of living and what their salary can provide. I don’t see why government debt is such a big deal?
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 17:15
|
|
|
Money is such a complicated concept and also so important that it's not that hard to get usually smart people to believe some utterly stupid things about it. It doesn't help that it's not clear whether current deficit spending will ultimately lead to deflation or inflation and where those effects will be felt most.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 17:27
|
|
|
You’re putting way too much stock into how much most people analyze their own political beliefs.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 17:28
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:I don’t see why government debt is such a big deal? It isn't. But as you say, most people (quite reasonably) don't have the expertise to know whether it is or isn't, and when the only source of news you hear about it is the right wing papers writing about Canadian Tax Payers Federation and Fraser Institute papers, it's easy to get the wrong idea.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 17:42
|
|
Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
|
Well maybe we make money so complicated because it’s basically fake and a method of control for sustaining social order. I’m not a gold standard guy but modern economies are too big to be backed up by a limited resource. We had to use fiat currency because there isn’t enough gold in the world to capture all the value of the Canadian economy. We’ve almost hit post scarcity for a lot of products and are only limited by how much energy we can produce without destroying the planet. Trust in the system is what makes money valuable. So if people think of it the way they think of their personal finances then everyone will behave as if the system works. If money becomes just a number the government can use for anything they want then people don’t trust it as much. Maybe that’s why we still haven’t moved away from Monetarist policy to New Monetary Theory.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 18:02
|
|
|
quote:The only reason people seem to think there’s inflation is because companies have arbitrarily been raising prices on everything to max out their margins. Isn't this saying that people think there's inflation because they are experiencing inflation?
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 18:05
|
|
|
Most people just use the idea that all finances have to be treated like household finances. Which means you should never spend more than what you are bringing in. However in practice you'll notice most people who say that don't even abide by their own rules, like leasing new vehicles, getting mortgages, credit card debt, etc. People will get angry if you tell them money isn't real
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 18:07
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:Well maybe we make money so complicated because it’s basically fake and a method of control for sustaining social order. I’m not a gold standard guy but modern economies are too big to be backed up by a limited resource. We had to use fiat currency because there isn’t enough gold in the world to capture all the value of the Canadian economy. This is a big driver (especially pre-Industrialization), as having the economy continue to grow while the money supply cannot because you haven't discovered a new silver mine lately is very bad, but it's not the whole story. Fiat money as we use it today largely emerged out of the big 20th century wars, where having a government that can just print new money is extremely useful, whether you're fighting a cataclysmic war or digging your way out of a Great Depression, or just keeping a thumb on the market at the macro scale. That last point in particular is exactly why a lot of the gold standard and bitcoin crew hate fiat money; it has nothing to do with the lack of backing, and everything to do with philosophical ideas about what the government should do. Groups like the Austrian school want to take control of monetary policy away from governments because it is too useful. Fried Watermelon posted:Most people just use the idea that all finances have to be treated like household finances. Which means you should never spend more than what you are bringing in. And then there's this. Household finances is the kind most people are familiar with, and there's not enough voices in the media willing to point out that governments are fundamentally different from households, and as such the rules are completely different. PittTheElder fucked around with this message at 18:14 on Nov 27, 2020 |
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 18:11
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:The only reason people seem to think there’s inflation is because companies have arbitrarily been raising prices on everything to max out their margins. Yeah, between that and asset prices I can't imagine why people would feel there's inflation. (Good thing for those neverending hedonic improvements in televisions, computers, cars, and cell phones.)
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 18:24
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:I don’t see why government debt is such a big deal? B-b-but we should run the government finances like i run my personal household budget and debt is bad!! Also the government should cut taxes so government spending goes down why no I won't be quitting my job to save money what do you mean?
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 18:33
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:I get a lot of people telling me how terrible Trudeau is because because the politicians who wear the red ties are bad. The ones who wear the blue ties are good!
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 18:53
|
|
|
Mantle posted:Isn't this saying that people think there's inflation because they are experiencing inflation? I might be misunderstanding but I thought inflation was caused by people having more money than the market can support thus resulting in rising costs. Which is why you can’t print money to pay for things because the money supply would arbitrarily increase prices to put the market back into equilibrium. The thing is while we have printed money, interest rates and real inflation have been negligible. Central banks spend insane amounts of their effort trying to keep inflation below 3% and most of the new money that gets created ends up going into private equity, banking reserves and stock price bailouts. This is not the 1900s where you’re paying 3000 Reichmarks for a loaf of bread because your government printed a shitload of cash to inflate its way out of war reparations payments. What we’re seeing is costs rising across the board but it isn’t due to scarcity. It’s due to rent seeking. Like the economy is more productive than its ever been. It’s produced more value than it ever has. But most of that new value which money represents is captured as wealth which is locked away into private equity funds of the rich who can’t possible spend all that money even if they tried. So there’s enormous boatloads of money hidden away in stocks, bonds and piles of cash that neither wealthy individuals nor corporations are spending in any meaningful way to generate economic activity that benefits every day people. Agricultural productivity is the best it’s ever been. We have so much food we can’t even sell it all. Yet somehow food prices are rising to ridiculous levels here. How is it in Andalusia, Spain the food prices haven’t changed a cent for the last 5-6 years and yet here I am paying up to 4 dollars more for something as basic as pork tenderloin? I think that people realized you can just keep raising prices gradually and people won’t feel it till they wonder why they haven’t saved any money and then realize their food budget went from 200 per month to 600 per month in less than a decade. Then they either eat less healthy food, or opt to cut out a lot of stuff just to get back into budget and it doesn’t matter because you scalped 400 bucks from households over 3 years and now make more per kilogram than you did when you started. What are they gonna do? Shop at another supermarket also owned by Galen Weston and pay the same price there instead? You can’t escape. Anyway I think that because we’re trying to hit a target inflation rate, central bank policies have necessitated ultra low interest rates which made lending cheaper which is why the economy is still going. We’re putting people into debt to support things like housing and automobile use which helps prop up a lot of different industries and the FIRE sector has grown to its present size thanks to ever increasing asset classes and investment instruments driven by all this cheap money. If we ever decided to stop doing this the whole thing will collapse. If we follow this argument to its rational conclusion can we say that housing truly is in short supply given that cheap debt has directly contributed to rising housing costs? Or is that oversimplification? Maybe the real reason housing is so unaffordable is because people are treating it like another investment category rather than a place to occupy and live in? Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 19:20 on Nov 27, 2020 |
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 18:56
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:Maybe that’s why we still haven’t moved away from Monetarist policy to New Monetary Theory. We have, it's just that the welfare goes to the rich to buy up and drive up asset prices.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 19:24
|
|
|
Femtosecond posted:lol you know the bulls have won when the Canadian Housing Bubble thread becomes the Canadian House Buying Discussion thread. I think the thing that finally caused me to give up is that in the worst economic situation in 100 years, housing prices went up. This happened for lots of reasons, but it demonstrates that governments will just do whatever to keep everything, including housing, afloat. At least my portfolio has done well, and we're positioned to spend a ridiculous sum on a house. Still crazy the amount of money you have to spend, but I'm to a point where the rental we are in is no longer big enough for our family, and we want some stability in a neighbourhood for the purposes of school catchment. This used to be achievable without leveraging a pile of debt, but that's the way it goes, I guess.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 20:53
|
|
|
Mandibular Fiasco posted:I think the thing that finally caused me to give up is that in the worst economic situation in 100 years, housing prices went up. This happened for lots of reasons, but it demonstrates that governments will just do whatever to keep everything, including housing, afloat. At least my portfolio has done well, and we're positioned to spend a ridiculous sum on a house. Still crazy the amount of money you have to spend, but I'm to a point where the rental we are in is no longer big enough for our family, and we want some stability in a neighbourhood for the purposes of school catchment. This used to be achievable without leveraging a pile of debt, but that's the way it goes, I guess. Same but also facing possible eviction during a pandemic on top of all that.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 20:56
|
|
|
gently caress you, I’ll never give in. Keeping it liquid for life
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 21:58
|
|
|
Cold on a Cob posted:Same but also facing possible eviction during a pandemic on top of all that. That sucks, sorry to hear that. We are OK on that front - landlord lives in the house next door, has no kids, loves that we do, and constantly maintains the place. It's a great situation, but we're just outgrowing it and the nearby schools aren't the greatest.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 22:23
|
|
|
Juul-Whip posted:gently caress you, I’ll never give in. Keeping it liquid for life If I didn't have kids, I would likely be in that same boat with you. The school district catchment is a major problem for parents. If your local school isn't very good, you have few options.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 22:24
|
|
|
Mandibular Fiasco posted:That sucks, sorry to hear that. We are OK on that front - landlord lives in the house next door, has no kids, loves that we do, and constantly maintains the place. It's a great situation, but we're just outgrowing it and the nearby schools aren't the greatest. We got lucky, they delisted it again because they only got one showing in three weeks and had no chance of getting their asking price. They will be listing in the spring though so we're looking. Before anyone posts, we know our rights as tenants in ontario and so on, but since it's a buyer's market for condos I figure now (or more likely, early spring) will be a good time to buy before poo poo goes flying high again after a year or two.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 22:31
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:
Not disagreeing with your post overall, but meat is a bit of a special case, because big supermarkets generally use it as a loss leader. What you pay for pork tenderloin has much more to do with the supermarket's marketing strategy than cost of production.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 22:45
|
|
|
Fried Watermelon posted:Most people just use the idea that all finances have to be treated like household finances. Which means you should never spend more than what you are bringing in. Lots of households spend more than their income over various arbitrary periods of time, though, so that deficit hawking example is stupid even on its own terms.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 23:05
|
|
|
leftist heap posted:You’re putting way too much stock into how much most people analyze their own political beliefs. Actual "socially liberal fiscal conservatives" don't exist in meaningful numbers in any country. People claim to be fiscal conservatives because they don't want their taxes to pay for things that they don't like/personally benefit from. It's not really any more complicated than that.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2020 23:16
|
|
|
Throatwarbler posted:Actual "socially liberal fiscal conservatives" don't exist in meaningful numbers in any country. People claim to be fiscal conservatives because they don't want their taxes to pay for things that they don't like/personally benefit from. It's not really any more complicated than that. Yeah I think at the end of the day people don’t like poors getting any kind of help or benefits.
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2020 02:31
|
|
|
A rising tide lifts all boats my friend. When Brad Lamb earns hundreds of millions, rest assured you will see some benefits!
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2020 02:55
|
|
|
half cocaine posted:A rising tide lifts all boats my friend. When Brad Lamb earns hundreds of millions, rest assured you will see some benefits! Best part of the pandemic is Brad Lamb losing his mind.
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2020 03:57
|
|
|
Mandibular Fiasco posted:I think the thing that finally caused me to give up is that in the worst economic situation in 100 years, housing prices went up. This happened for lots of reasons, but it demonstrates that governments will just do whatever to keep everything, including housing, afloat. At least my portfolio has done well, and we're positioned to spend a ridiculous sum on a house. Still crazy the amount of money you have to spend, but I'm to a point where the rental we are in is no longer big enough for our family, and we want some stability in a neighbourhood for the purposes of school catchment. This used to be achievable without leveraging a pile of debt, but that's the way it goes, I guess. There's somewhere deep in this thread where I ask the question, of what sort of events could precipitate the bubble to burst, and answers were things like an earthquake or anything that induce a major reduction in employment. Well we've had that with the pandemic and nothing burst. What we've seen is that there's an inequity to the impact of these catastrophic events. Maybe an earthquake would impact people more equally, but for a pandemic at least, rich people that have the capability to buy homes have been totally fine. I agree with your point as well, the government will do anything to keep the system stable and working. Purgatory Glory posted:Those 8000 units were used for something else? AirBnB I assume? I think most pied a terres probably.
|
|
#
?
Nov 29, 2020 02:02
|
|
|
In mortgage news, you can apparently get a ten year fixed rate from Tangerine at 2.14% now. Or a four year fixed from CIBC on properties >1m for 1.49% + thousands in cashback (which effectively reduce that by another 0.1 or so unless you're a really big spender) Pretty good rate spike insurance with the ten.
|
|
#
?
Nov 29, 2020 02:27
|
|
|
Eh that still doesn't really change the argument about variable being better always. Though the cash back thing would.
|
|
#
?
Nov 29, 2020 02:39
|
|
|
PittTheElder posted:Eh that still doesn't really change the argument about variable being better always. Though the cash back thing would. Have variable rate mortgages existed as a real option through a time of sustained interest rate increase? If not, the premise behind variable rate having always been historically better is pretty faulty.
|
|
#
?
Nov 29, 2020 09:28
|
|
|
Variable being better is when you consider average over a long period of time, but (relatively speaking) I would say the worst time to go variable is when the rate has nowhere to go but up or steady state and the best time to go fixed is when it's stupidly low like it is right now. I had a variable mortgage back when rates were 1% but my plan is to go fixed this time.
|
|
#
?
Nov 29, 2020 17:23
|
|
|
rates have had nowhere to go but up for like 15 years now.
|
|
#
?
Nov 29, 2020 19:45
|
|
|
leftist heap posted:rates have had nowhere to go but up for like 15 years now. Sure but rates dropped down from 1% when I had my variable mortgage 
|
|
#
?
Nov 29, 2020 19:46
|
|
|
Anyhow yeah I get what you're saying, rates are never going up again
|
|
#
?
Nov 29, 2020 19:49
|
|
|
T.C. posted:Have variable rate mortgages existed as a real option through a time of sustained interest rate increase? If not, the premise behind variable rate having always been historically better is pretty faulty. The point of variable rate is that the banks are almost certainly more aware of what's going to happen with future interest rates than you are. And you don't get to fix at the current rate, you fix at what the lender offers; at a time when interest rates are expected to rise the fixed rates will be much higher to cover that risk of prime rate bumps.
|
|
#
?
Nov 29, 2020 22:00
|
|
|
Pack it on, people! Get under it like a giant security blanket! Average new mortgage tops $300,000 for first time as consumer debt in Canada hits $2 trillion Consumer debt in Canada rose 3.8 per cent in the third quarter to $2.041 trillion, driven by the surging housing market and new auto loans, Equifax Canada’s latest report reveals. Mortgage balances were up 6.6 per cent from the year before and the average new mortgage loan rose 8.6 per cent to exceed $300,000 for the first time. https://financialpost.com/news/economy/average-new-mortgage-tops-300000-for-first-time-as-consumer-debt-in-canada-hits-2-trillion
|
|
#
?
Dec 1, 2020 00:01
|
|
|
More shocking than that, 12% of new credit was opened by people already on deferred loans. I don't think I'll ever understand the Canadian obsession with maximizing every penny of credit available to them, if at all possible.
|
|
#
?
Dec 1, 2020 00:21
|
|
|
I think there might be a trickle down truck bubble. I can't find one in good shape for under $10000, but there sure are a lot for sale for around the price of a decent down payment on a house.
|
|
#
?
Dec 1, 2020 00:49
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 22:15 |
|
|
Bi-la kaifa posted:I think there might be a trickle down truck bubble. I can't find one in good shape for under $10000, but there sure are a lot for sale for around the price of a decent down payment on a house. All those people trying to build truck equity.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2020 01:15
|
|