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I guess that $29c 12/11 for $PLTR I got isn't dead yet?? 
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Dec 7, 2020 19:31
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GramCracker posted:I guess that $29c 12/11 for $PLTR I got isn't dead yet?? Shhhhh, you're tempting the gods.
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Dec 7, 2020 19:37
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I don't understand the hate for AZ vaccine. They are the only vaccine out of the three that test weekly rather on based on symptoms. Both Pfizer and Moderna, only obtains a PCR swab if you become symptomatic. Asymptomatic patients still have findings on CT consistent with pneumonia and among other effects. We really don't know if there's COVID has lasting effects even if you're asymptomatic. I'd take a 60-70% efficacy of prevention of infection rather than a 95% efficacy to be asymptomatic. Don't get me wrong, both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines could potentially be better than AZ in terms of prevention but right now their studies don't demonstrate prevention, they only demonstrate decrease in symptoms. https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32466-1/attachment/1246f6f0-bef8-4428-b9d1-cf9aaced64bd/mmc1.pdf look on page 62 for surveillance protocol of AZ Just google pubmed asymptomatic covid for any number of studies that shows there's disease pathology even when the patient feels fine.
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Dec 7, 2020 19:46
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GramCracker posted:I guess that $29c 12/11 for $PLTR I got isn't dead yet?? Oscar Wild posted:Shhhhh, you're tempting the gods. I sold CSPs on PLTR $19 12/18 for $180 each 2 weeks ago. Just bought them out for $11 each. Made $169 on each  Now, do I tempt fate and roll up?
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Dec 7, 2020 20:12
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Cacafuego posted:I sold CSPs on PLTR $19 12/18 for $180 each 2 weeks ago. Just bought them out for $11 each. Made $169 on each Yes, Sell some 12/24 $30P
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Dec 7, 2020 20:43
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lostleaf posted:They are the only vaccine out of the three that test weekly rather on based on symptoms. Both Pfizer and Moderna, only obtains a PCR swab if you become symptomatic. Asymptomatic patients still have findings on CT consistent with pneumonia and among other effects. We really don't know if there's COVID has lasting effects even if you're asymptomatic. I'd take a 60-70% efficacy of prevention of infection rather than a 95% efficacy to be asymptomatic. This is a really good point! Its weird to me that pfizer and moderna only checked symptomatic patients. You would *assume* that the rates of asymptomatic positives would be low as well, but that's not a given.
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Dec 7, 2020 20:46
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Baddog posted:This is a really good point! Only checking symptomatic patients would make you look better than someone checking everyone (AZ). The only weird thing about it to me is that all the vaccine trials aren't being forced to look at asymptomatic patients similar to AZ given how many covid cases are asymptomatic. edit: the answer is probably capitalism with a veneer of "it'd be too hard on the trial participants to get tested all the time"
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Dec 7, 2020 20:55
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Is think or swim the recommended place to paper trade options? I don't actually have the risk tolerance to trade real options right now, but I would like to understand them a bit better.
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Dec 7, 2020 21:03
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The worst part of the TSLA rollercoaster is finding out when to jump off. This stock makes no sense but I doubt it will drop before it hits the S&P500 on 12/21. Maybe.. 
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Dec 7, 2020 21:14
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AZ only did that for a limited subset of patients from what I understand. It would have almost certainly been too difficult to do for all the patients in any trial, particularly in the US. The results were about what we expected after phase 1/2, since the AZ one had a less robust response there (and that group's reputstion is for underdelivering on efficacy anyway). That's not to say it isn't a huge accomplishment though, it is and it will likely be very useful.
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Dec 7, 2020 21:50
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Artonos posted:Is think or swim the recommended place to paper trade options? I don't actually have the risk tolerance to trade real options right now, but I would like to understand them a bit better. That's what I did, it worked well but they only give you 2 months before you need to fund your account.
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Dec 7, 2020 22:06
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Starting to feel good about my AAL 12c 7/16.
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Dec 7, 2020 22:07
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DoubleT2172 posted:Yes, Sell some 12/24 $30P I would like to know more about this strategy. I've only sold a handful of OTM puts-- and as I've said earlier, my $9 cost basis is making me hesitant to buy any more shares now because then my number would average up. I tossed around the idea of selling the $17.50 2023 put because the premium was at $7.xx, but I think that seems pretty capital inefficient. Edit: AHH F/UGH posted:Now is abso-loving-lutely the time to get in on airlines and cruises. I'm probably going to grab a few hundred shares of CCL at some point and just start writing covered calls on them. I'm already doing that with 200 shares of AAL. \/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/ Would absolutely like to hear your strategy for contract length and strike price for what you're selling. MetaJew fucked around with this message at 03:08 on Dec 8, 2020 |
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Dec 7, 2020 23:15
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Rolo posted:Starting to feel good about my AAL 12c 7/16. Now is abso-loving-lutely the time to get in on airlines and cruises. I'm probably going to grab a few hundred shares of CCL at some point and just start writing covered calls on them. I'm already doing that with 200 shares of AAL.
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Dec 8, 2020 01:43
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AHH F/UGH posted:Now is abso-loving-lutely the time to get in on airlines and cruises. I'm probably going to grab a few hundred shares of CCL at some point and just start writing covered calls on them. I'm already doing that with 200 shares of AAL. Yeah when I got my AAL call I did CCL too. E: what sort of calls are you writing? Just out of curiosity. Rolo fucked around with this message at 03:49 on Dec 8, 2020 |
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Dec 8, 2020 03:30
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As expected TSLA doing ATM offering and it didn't even drop that much
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Dec 8, 2020 18:51
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MomJeans420 posted:As expected TSLA doing ATM offering and it didn't even drop that much Wow , 50000% returns and hepatitis sign me up!
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Dec 8, 2020 18:58
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Do I keep my UNFI short on into the print tomorrow? Discuss
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Dec 8, 2020 19:14
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MomJeans420 posted:As expected TSLA doing ATM offering and it didn't even drop that much It’s gonna finish the day green! Making cars seems kind of ancillary to the business, just close all the factories and save on labor and capex, then sell stock
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Dec 8, 2020 19:38
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:It’s gonna finish the day green! Making cars seems kind of ancillary to the business, just close all the factories and save on labor and capex, then sell stock Wow think of the margins on EVs with no opex! Bought AAL on recommendations from the thread. Probably going to touch the AirBnB poop. I'm all in on Hellworld ETF.
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Dec 8, 2020 19:50
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MomJeans420 posted:As expected TSLA doing ATM offering and it didn't even drop that much You never go rear end to mouth
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Dec 8, 2020 20:12
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Rdfn about to hit ath. I’ve got about 1100 shares but I think I’ll cash them at near 60, because this stock always seems to drop 15-20% after hitting highs. Think I’ll park it in baba until it falls back to the high 40s
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Dec 8, 2020 20:29
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:It’s gonna finish the day green! Making cars seems kind of ancillary to the business, just close all the factories and save on labor and capex, then sell stock They need to pretend to make some kind of product though, so why not make Tesla cryptocurrency and reinvent themselves? Sure it would be horrible and full of problems, but that doesn't matter. Greatest Living Man posted:You never go rear end to mouth I swear there's a part in that movie where some character (I think the gf?) says something about it being ok if it's really hot, but I can't find it online and I probably won't watch Clerks II again to figure it out. *edit* I don't know if anyone is following $PEN, but it's halted. Marc Cohodes seems to do good work, but I didn't take a position because betting on number go down in this market has not worked very well for me. MomJeans420 fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Dec 8, 2020 |
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Dec 8, 2020 20:34
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MomJeans420 posted:They need to pretend to make some kind of product though, so why not make Tesla cryptocurrency and reinvent themselves? Sure it would be horrible and full of problems, but that doesn't matter. Love Marc, he's a straight shooter, does a ton of research, and not some bullshit hit and run type like Citron. He's got some dirt on Georgia Republicans too which he says will come out shortly. I hear you on shorting but if you are able to nail one or two of them in a ripping market and risk manage well enough to avoid losing your shirt, thats a ton of alpha.
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Dec 8, 2020 21:03
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Yeah, but I think of Wirecard or Tesla and realize that while eventually the stocks tank, it can take a long time
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Dec 8, 2020 21:59
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Looking at this: https://twitter.com/TenYearNote/status/1336380785088065536 Might be worth tossing some change at $DGE?
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Dec 8, 2020 22:20
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I have the DGE ADR as $DEO, honestly I forgot I had it, but I also own $BUD and $TAP so I guess I almost have the universe of alcohol megacaps.
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Dec 8, 2020 22:40
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So we'll definitely be at the top when Robinhood IPOs, right? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...SKBN28I328?il=0
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Dec 9, 2020 00:24
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Read the AMA from Ray Dalio today, pretty interesting. Skimmed his series on cycles, some very interesting graphs there. He pinpoints the time when the US started to decline to 10 years ago, that shitshow of a recovery. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/archetypical-cycle-internal-order-disorder-ray-dalio/ No earth shattering advice, but he recommends to get diversified internationally (and by category). Think it is becoming apparent to many that we are definitely on the decline, and this ridiculous pandemic response will only accelerate that. So slamming 80% into SPY and 20% into US bonds perhaps ain't gonna be so hot going forward. What country is better though.... not a lot of great choices, at least not ones with fair markets. Baddog fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Dec 9, 2020 |
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Dec 9, 2020 01:14
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Baddog posted:Read the AMA from Ray Dalio today, pretty interesting. Skimmed his series on cycles, some very interesting graphs there. He pinpoints the time when the US started to decline to 10 years ago, that shitshow of a recovery. The graphs
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Dec 9, 2020 01:21
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Baddog posted:Read the AMA from Ray Dalio today, pretty interesting. Skimmed his series on cycles, some very interesting graphs there. He pinpoints the time when the US started to decline to 10 years ago, that shitshow of a recovery. That’s a long read and I’m on an iPad. Does he address how global megacorps such as AAPL are effectively decoupled from the health of US culture or competence of US government at large? Because buying SPY is largely like buying a bunch of companies who don’t give a poo poo if the federal government is competent compared to China or not.
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Dec 9, 2020 01:32
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Baddog posted:The graphs Do you know what the y axis is on the top graph? Anyway, it seems like some bullshit to me. The international diversification seems true though and has been true for a while given how cheap it is everywhere else compared to US equity markets. edit: it's the private sector non-financial debt %gdp HamsterPolice fucked around with this message at 01:37 on Dec 9, 2020 |
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Dec 9, 2020 01:35
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pmchem posted:That’s a long read and I’m on an iPad. Does he address how global megacorps such as AAPL are effectively decoupled from the health of US culture or competence of US government at large? Because buying SPY is largely like buying a bunch of companies who don’t give a poo poo if the federal government is competent compared to China or not. No, nothing that specific. He's more talking about the macro trends and what to expect. Just general advice - "save and put your savings into a well-diversified mix of currencies, countries, and asset classes." Probably need to think about how even though the spy multinationals are decoupled to an extent, that most of apples revenue still comes from the west. Their favorable manufacturing terms are because of the dominance that the us *used* to have. And how value creation through interface and ecosystem are kind of ephemeral, and again largely dependent on being based in the dominant global economy. Edit - look at tiktok. How easy it is for a chinese company to bubble up now. That's going to become more common, not less. Are the US companies going to be able to stay dominate through acquisition now? Noooooo. Baddog fucked around with this message at 02:25 on Dec 9, 2020 |
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Dec 9, 2020 02:11
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Baddog posted:No, nothing that specific. He's more talking about the macro trends and what to expect. Gotcha. And I'm on my PC now so I can read a bit more. I am definitely diversified -- 40% in international index funds at the moment, and not radically changing that anytime soon. Even if America is entering a decline, it's a hard idea of how to play it investment-wise. I think the mega-multinationals like AAPL could literally survive the USA falling into civil war or nuclear hellscape (granted, world-wide markets would not be fans of such an event). But AAPL could just re-incorporate somewhere else, move their brain trust to Europe or Korea, their IP is protected by laws in developed countries, etc. So the bigs will still prosper as well as bigs in other countries if not better. Small caps generally get filtered out by market weighting for indexes that also feature large caps. So, uh, I guess don't go all-in on IWM over the next 5 decades? Dalio's musings seem more useful for avoiding pitfalls than anything else. That's fine, that's useful too. A lot of people would've like to avoid this March's pitfall.
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Dec 9, 2020 02:26
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Baddog posted:Read the AMA from Ray Dalio today, pretty interesting. Skimmed his series on cycles, some very interesting graphs there. He pinpoints the time when the US started to decline to 10 years ago, that shitshow of a recovery. I dont see anywhere where he tells me what small cap calls to buy without researching. What a waste of my time!
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Dec 9, 2020 02:38
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He also has been pushing harder and harder for China as he expands his business there. Pretty much everything he writes these days is invest Chinese in some way.
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Dec 9, 2020 02:49
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MomJeans420 posted:As expected TSLA doing ATM offering and it didn't even drop that much lol drat that had a good rear end drop last time which saved my short back then. glad I'm not in now,  to folks ITT pointing out how crazy these guys are getting now on the pump. its still coming though sometime soon 
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Dec 9, 2020 02:56
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ranbo das posted:He also has been pushing harder and harder for China as he expands his business there. Pretty much everything he writes these days is invest Chinese in some way. Hmmm. The difficulty there is the markets aren't protected in any way. How is he investing?
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Dec 9, 2020 02:57
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$X US STEEL still going all hog wild lol... don't trust shorting this thing since it loves going back to 40.00 zone historically/cyclically. so tempting, but think I gotta pass for now
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Dec 9, 2020 02:59
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gay picnic defence posted:A speculative 3D printing start up I hold shares in (3DA.ASX) just sold a printer to Boeing, went into a trading halt and announced a capital raising. The institutional offer was apparently oversubscribed by $12 million more than the $5 million they wanted to raise. I think I'll buy some more when the retail offer is available. I got curious and was considering gambling on this (and be very clear that I am not looking at this as anything remotely approaching a properly informed investor, I'm straight up gambling on trends/volatility with what would be considered play money for this thread, which I can afford to lose). Is the relatively small trade volume an issue for buying and then selling these later? Would be in the volume range of ~2400 shares. Was hoping to hop in around 0.6 and ride it up to 0.7-0.8. I figured Christopher Pyne landing a board job will guarantee at least some government kickbacks will go to them or at least open the sort of doors for them where merit/product becomes largely irrelevant, it's just jobs for the boys at that point. Not looking at any long term position, just hoping to scrape a few bucks off some short term volatility
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Dec 9, 2020 03:41
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