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SimonChris posted:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/ 538 laid off Claire Malone today 
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Dec 7, 2020 20:17
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Tayter Swift posted:538 laid off Claire Malone today Arrrrgh she's the best one! But apparently it was part of broad ABC News layoffs, not specific to her.
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Dec 7, 2020 20:19
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Tayter Swift posted:538 laid off Claire Malone today What?? Tell me they didn't keep Perry bacon jr over her...
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Dec 7, 2020 20:49
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How are u posted:What?? Tell me they didn't keep Perry bacon jr over her... She's really the only person worth a drat on their front facing side. Hopefully not being constrained to the data equivalent of the view from nowhere will allow her more freedom to express her opinions.
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Dec 7, 2020 21:04
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vyelkin posted:2020 (13%): 65/32 Biden To make it maybe more instructive, here's the comparison to performance vs. overall populace: 2020 (13%): +13 Biden 2016 (11%): +17 Clinton 2012 (10%): +20 Obama 2008 (9%): +14 Obama 2004 (8%): +6 Kerry 2000 (7%): +14 Gore 1996 (5%): +23 Clinton 1992 (5%): +18 Clinton 1988 (3%): +25 Dukakis 1984 (3%): +26 Mondale 1980 (2%): +15 Carter 1976 (2%): +25 Carter So large Hispanic support of the Democrats is very much an 80s-90s things - note that the biggest margins went to Mondale and Dukakis, two of the largest popular vote percentage losers in this period. It started falling apart for Gore, and then broke heavily against Kerry - as others have said, very much driven by George W Bush's outreach efforts and brand - and picked back up with Obama but not by as much.
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Dec 7, 2020 21:23
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Not that I expect this to happen, but I wonder what the reaction would be to wholesale amnesty of undocumented immigrants, and then a massive increase in naturalization of those immigrants. It would seem logical that you could potentially add a ton of new voters, who would be favorable to the party, but I wonder if the backlash would offset any gains in that area. This isn't an argument for or against this policy, mostly just wondering what people think the outcome would be at the polls. I would think this would be a net positive, but I don't really have a good read on how most people think.
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Dec 7, 2020 21:57
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Bird in a Blender posted:Not that I expect this to happen, but I wonder what the reaction would be to wholesale amnesty of undocumented immigrants, and then a massive increase in naturalization of those immigrants. It would seem logical that you could potentially add a ton of new voters, who would be favorable to the party, but I wonder if the backlash would offset any gains in that area. This isn't an argument for or against this policy, mostly just wondering what people think the outcome would be at the polls. Probably depends what party you're in when you do it. Republicans have completely memory-holed Reagan's amnesty and will get mad if you even bring it up.
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Dec 7, 2020 22:04
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DynamicSloth posted:That you think we're in a position to slip tells me you were already way too overconfident in Democratic turnout during a special election. The only way Warnock and Ossof win is by pulling an inside straight. Hoping that Republican turnout will be depressed by Trump shenanigans will absolutely not be enough if there isn't anything pushing Democratic voters to the polls. Yeah, I think if anything the CHUDS in GA will just Vote Harder and the end result will just be a lot of them acting like assholes around polling stations and poo poo but still turning out. Like I can see them trying to bring in guns and cameras and acting weird any time a poll worker asks them to calm the gently caress down or something but they're not going to go "oh well it's all rigged" and stay at home while the commie socialists take over america. If I had to guess I's say they'll probably win by a decent margian that out performs the polls again. Yes, I know GA polls were pretty accurate. I meant nationally.
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Dec 7, 2020 22:19
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skeleton warrior posted:To make it maybe more instructive, here's the comparison to performance vs. overall populace: This seems to me to be a very odd way to phrase/and put things. You're only considering Hispanic vote in relation to how the electorate as a whole voted. So if the great mass of white people voted overwhelmingly for GOP or Dems in a given year but Hispanic voters stayed in the same proportion of roughly 2/3 to 1/3 every year, they are in large support of the Dems or GOP in different years by your way of reckoning. If you're looking at the Hispanic vote I think you should look at, you know, how they vote and note only as compared with the overall electorate. It looks so far like in the modern era the Hispanic vote is roughly 2/3-13 Dem to GOP, with 2004 and 1980 being high water marks for the GOP with this cohort. So, on average, they vote strongly for Democrats by a large margin, and this appears to have been true in 2020 as well. It seems like the focus is on perceived specific regional shifts in Hispanic voters towards Trump such as in Miami-Dade and/or Rio Grande Valley in Texas. Because there is the electoral college, regional developments are important even if the overall national numbers remain about the same. Anyway, if the big shifts that happen and are the biggest determinant of electoral outcomes are most notably within the great mass of white electorate, then those movements should be described rather than talking about the Hispanic vote only in relationship to what white voters did.
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Dec 7, 2020 22:52
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vyelkin posted:2020 (13%): 65/32 Biden Good point and Democrats should appeal to Cuban voters especially given that Florida is a swing state. I wonder why they're failing to do that? What benefits do they get from the Republican Party?
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Dec 7, 2020 23:37
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Gabriel S. posted:Good point and Democrats should appeal to Cuban voters especially given that Florida is a swing state. I wonder why they're failing to do that? What benefits do they get from the Republican Party? Uh, I don't think Cubans are amendable as an electorate because of the whole Cuba thing. Like, you can try to approach younger ones who don't have that kind of memory but there's a reason why they went Trump.
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Dec 7, 2020 23:42
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Gabriel S. posted:Good point and Democrats should appeal to Cuban voters especially given that Florida is a swing state. I wonder why they're failing to do that? What benefits do they get from the Republican Party? The issues that appeal to Cuban voters also alienate the rest of the party.
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Dec 7, 2020 23:43
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vyelkin posted:2020 (13%): 65/32 Biden Why was W so popular in the Hispanic community? Was it just his support for an immigration plan?
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Dec 7, 2020 23:47
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clean ayers act posted:Why was W so popular in the Hispanic community? Was it just his support for an immigration plan? He was from Texas, had a brother who was married to a Hispanic woman, spoke a little Spanish and did actual outreach to the population.
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Dec 8, 2020 00:03
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Aruan posted:The issues that appeal to Cuban voters also alienate the rest of the party. Right, that part I get but what are those issues specifically?
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Dec 8, 2020 00:06
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Gabriel S. posted:Right, that part I get but what are those issues specifically? screaming about Castro mainly like that genuinely is just it, hardline anti-cuba stances are entirely for cuban expat votes and literally nobody else.
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Dec 8, 2020 00:07
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What fraction of Hispanic Americans are of Cuban descent? Edit: not trying to be facetious, just curious about how many voters actually care about the US taking an aggressive stance towards Cuba. Lead out in cuffs fucked around with this message at 00:51 on Dec 8, 2020 |
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Dec 8, 2020 00:27
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sexpig by night posted:screaming about Castro mainly Ah hah, One Issue Voters.
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Dec 8, 2020 00:49
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Oracle posted:He was from Texas, had a brother who was married to a Hispanic woman, spoke a little Spanish and did actual outreach to the population. He was also signaling at the time for immigration reform (something Reagan had done) and the whole "compassionate conservatism" think wasn't a completely joke. Then well...* waves generally at the Bush domestic years *
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Dec 8, 2020 01:04
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sexpig by night posted:screaming about Castro mainly don't forget lower taxes
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Dec 8, 2020 02:13
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I find it really remarkable that anti-Cuban rhetoric still resonates so strongly two generations later.
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Dec 8, 2020 02:15
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fool of sound posted:I find it really remarkable that anti-Cuban rhetoric still resonates so strongly two generations later. Expats hold tightly to tradition. Look at Scots and Burns Night.
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Dec 8, 2020 02:17
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Rust Martialis posted:Expats hold tightly to tradition. Look at Scots and Burns Night. Burns Night owns  Lead out in cuffs posted:What fraction of Hispanic Americans are of Cuban descent? US Wide, just under 4%. In Florida? lol, enough that you get really stupid pandering. https://data.census.gov/cedsci/tabl...idePreview=true
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Dec 8, 2020 02:24
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fool of sound posted:I find it really remarkable that anti-Cuban rhetoric still resonates so strongly two generations later. I encourage you to bring up Castro to a group of Cuban expats.
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Dec 8, 2020 02:29
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Sarcastr0 posted:I go back and forth about the national D/R momentum. This doesn't really address the specifics, but does make me less optimistic about blue Texas for a while: Those aren't big cities though and the state overall swung toward Democrats by 3.4% That's a decent swing.
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Dec 8, 2020 03:14
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Raenir Salazar posted:This doesn't seem to be backed up by the data though? When percentages shift as drastically as they did in the RGV, you should be assuming that substantial numbers of previous voters flipped, because that's incredibly more likely than literally all the new Trump vote coming from entirely non-2016 voters. Simply going 🙉 about how it's mathematically possible is cope.
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Dec 8, 2020 03:24
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Elotana posted:Yes, it is "backed up" by the data. It's just not conclusively proven. What % of voters switched, I'm not sure how much a "ton" is.
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Dec 8, 2020 03:36
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Elotana posted:Yes, it is "backed up" by the data. It's just not conclusively proven.
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Dec 8, 2020 03:38
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Epinephrine posted:You've missed a few posts in this thread where we did the math and yes, in fact, it is possible. 
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Dec 8, 2020 03:59
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If you click through to the article, Dallas and Austin are high on the list of largest swings against Trump. The Republican gains in south Texas aren't nothing, but Republicans gained more raw votes from increased turnout in counties that were already very Republican than they did in the RGV. And Texas did get closer, but it started out a lot more Republican than AZ/GA/NC. It's more that there are a lot of rural/small city Republicans than anything else, and Biden improved significantly in the suburbs but he isn't winning them by double digit margins like Atlanta. Elotana posted:Yes, it is "backed up" by the data. It's just not conclusively proven. Biden won more votes than Clinton, but Trump improved by even more. If Trump flipped a substantial number of Clinton voters, all of those have to be replaced by 2016 non voters who turned out this year and voted for Biden. Without any evidence to the contrary, you would probably assume that whatever Trump did to flip Clinton voters would also convince the 2016 non voters who turned out this year to vote for Trump. It's not as weird to assume that Republicans pulled thousands of Trump voters out of a hat as to assume that Republicans convinced thousands of Democrats to vote for Trump and Democrats pulled thousands of Biden voters out of a hat.
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Dec 8, 2020 04:21
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fool of sound posted:I find it really remarkable that anti-Cuban rhetoric still resonates so strongly two generations later. kind answer: expats tend to be very passionate about their identity and traditions to hold on to what they left behind and all. more realistic answer: like 90% of these people are the kids of factory owners and poo poo who have been told how horrible it is that castro took their hard earned slaves and if not for ~the scourge of communism~ they'd be home living high on the hog.
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Dec 8, 2020 04:26
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sexpig by night posted:kind answer: expats tend to be very passionate about their identity and traditions to hold on to what they left behind and all. I completely agree with you on this one I think another lurking reason for both Cuban expats and Texas Mexican second-third generations have is to them gained "whiteness": they are the "good ones", they speak English and own property, and they are Americans first They lose their sympathy for other immigrants because they don't even identify with them whatsoever. They also trend conservative in religious beliefs and ideals for gender roles
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Dec 8, 2020 05:49
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James Garfield posted:If you click through to the article, Dallas and Austin are high on the list of largest swings against Trump. Trump won Georgia in 2016 by 5.09% points. He won Texas in 2020 by 5.58% It's within striking distance for 2024.
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Dec 8, 2020 08:34
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Charlz Guybon posted:Trump won Georgia in 2016 by 5.09% points. if either side has a blip in turnout it's a landslide whichever way it falls. both sides are probably maxed out
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Dec 8, 2020 14:02
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I suspect it’s not just Cubans who are responsible for the swing in Miami. South Florida is also a hub for a lot of other Central and South American diasporas. Many of those people might also be wary of any perceived “socialism”, given the circumstances that led a lot of them to leave their original homes or what they hear from friends and family still there.
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Dec 8, 2020 14:46
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TulliusCicero posted:I completely agree with you on this one it would be really, really interesting to see how these voting preferences break down by whether people are 1st/2nd/3rd generation immigrants, and if they're 1st generation how old they were when they immigrated. but is there any chance any organization might be maintaining a dataset like that?
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Dec 8, 2020 15:41
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fool of sound posted:I find it really remarkable that anti-Cuban rhetoric still resonates so strongly two generations later. There have been successive waves of migration from Cuba in the 70s, 80s, 90s, and 00s, so it's not as if the issue is purely grounded in the late 50s and early 60s. There are nuances in the political alignment of those clusters and not a lot of great data tracking it, but overall I think people tend to overrate ideological conservatism and underrate local politics when assessing Cuban-American voters as a bloc (which itself is a flawed exercise for a lot of reasons). The marriage of Florida Cuban-Americans and the Republican Party is one based on local political machinery as much as national issues, and Cuban communities elsewhere don't necessarily show the same partisan breakdown. There's a reason we don't talk about Union City and West New York as swing areas (Biden carried Hudson County 75-25 roughly) and why Bob Menendez is a Democrat. Anti-Castro politics certainly run strong in non-Miami Cuban-American communities as well, but it doesn't necessarily translate into votes for the GOP.
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Dec 8, 2020 16:09
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TulliusCicero posted:I completely agree with you on this one https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/17/trump-latinos-south-texas-tejanos-437027 This is a pretty good look at the POV of South Texas Latino Trump voters. The gist is that yeah, despite being multi-lingual and having relationships across the border, they are more likely to identify as white or Tejano than Hispanic or Mexican American. A lot can even trace their American-ness back to the Mexican-American War or even the Texas Revolution. A lot of the good paying jobs down there are also in Oil and Gas or in the Border Patrol.
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Dec 8, 2020 17:43
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Is Lloyd Austin a good pick for Defense Secretary?
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Dec 8, 2020 18:04
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Grouchio posted:Is Lloyd Austin a good pick for Defense Secretary? His last job was on the Raytheon board of directors.
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Dec 8, 2020 18:07
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