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NaanViolence posted:What is the wonkish response to the fact that humans no longer have the ability to do accurate political polling in the US? Is anybody actually redoing polling from the ground up like it needs? The surge in spam robocalling in the last few years means that no one answers their phone anymore, so phone-based polling only connects with the few remaining weirdos who will answer the phone from an unknown number. They're going to have to come up with a new strategy for the future. they'll need to find a reliable pool of reasonably normal people who will agree to be polled. Perhaps a two-tiered opt-in system to identify in advance willing, representative participants, who can then be polled randomly, either through phone, email, or online.
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Dec 10, 2020 16:31
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Another issue is a few things that might work, are substantially more expensive. I used to have a hobby of going to Midwestern malls (when I lived in the Midwest) to take surveys about movie trailers and food products. However, they'd actually pay you (like $2! Wow!), but more importantly, you could actually log your opinion in what I assume was a relatively small pool of data. I'd always say everything was too sweet and that trailers never had enough women, and if n=200 then maybe they reduced the sugar in some bologna out there somewhere and put a extra babes in John Wick.
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Dec 10, 2020 16:35
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Soon enough an algorithm will be able to replace public polling by just scraping purchasing data from Target, Walmart, and Amazon, and because of our dystopian sci-fi world (without any of the cool flying car/cyborg enhancement/sex robot stuff), it will prove to be significantly more accurate than phone polling ever was.
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Dec 10, 2020 16:48
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Deteriorata posted:The surge in spam robocalling in the last few years means that no one answers their phone anymore, so phone-based polling only connects with the few remaining weirdos who will answer the phone from an unknown number. Everyone blames it on all the spam, but a huge part of this phenomenon is caused by entire generations being too socially inept and anxious to have an actual phone conversation, and normalizing that is hilarious. Texting is so goddamned shallow and humans are not good at it when compared with talking.
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Dec 10, 2020 16:52
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NaanViolence posted:Everyone blames it on all the spam, but a huge part of this phenomenon is caused by entire generations being too socially inept and anxious to have an actual phone conversation, and normalizing that is hilarious. Texting is so goddamned shallow and humans are not good at it when compared with talking. I don't agree with this at all. I mean I hate phone calls too but I have my iphone set up so that every call from a number I don't recognize goes straight to voice mail, and 99/100 times it's a spam call. I'm not afraid to talk to people on the phone. I think it's a combo of things, but my opinion is that it's mostly going to be down to response bias. Remember in 2016, pollsters reported people who refused to answer polling questions because of low social trust but instead would just shout TRUMP! into the phone and slam it down? This time around we got them and we got a bunch of bored WFH liberals who are happy to answer a poll, thank you very much. e: also under the "millenials and zoomers are too afraid to talk on the phone" argument, then you'd expect to see bias in the other direction, towards Republicans. zoux fucked around with this message at 16:59 on Dec 10, 2020 |
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Dec 10, 2020 16:56
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NaanViolence posted:Everyone blames it on all the spam, but a huge part of this phenomenon is caused by entire generations being too socially inept and anxious to have an actual phone conversation, and normalizing that is hilarious. Texting is so goddamned shallow and humans are not good at it when compared with talking. ...Phone conversations actually suck though?
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Dec 10, 2020 16:57
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 This is actually a huge problem. Especially when combined with legislative dynamics where rank-and-file members aren't involved in policy making but are instead presented a bill already written and told they are voting for it. I don't think that a bunch of people, literally in their 80s - born in a time before television even existed - are capable of dealing with 2020 problems, at least not as well as younger (say under 70) people. I don't know what the solution is, outside of a cultural sea change in the Democratic party that breaks open their devotion to seniority and hierarchy. I'm not in favor of term limits or even really age limits; I don't think anyone would say that Bernie is out of touch or an ineffective politician that needs to be put out to pasture. I guess aged and senescent leadership entrenching itself to the detriment of the polity is a pretty common phenomenon throughout history. I think the GOP avoids it because they have much more of a "throw the bastards out" voting ethos than liberals. https://twitter.com/ryanlcooper/status/1337062934481088512 Relevant article zoux fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Dec 10, 2020 |
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Dec 10, 2020 17:09
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What happens in ten years time when all the 80 year old democrats turn into 90 year olds and retire? Will they be replaced with a new crop of 70 year olds turned 80, or is there something of an age jump that will let actually younger people take over?
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Dec 10, 2020 17:17
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Sarcastro posted:Soon enough an algorithm will be able to replace public polling by just scraping purchasing data from Target, Walmart, and Amazon, and because of our dystopian sci-fi world (without any of the cool flying car/cyborg enhancement/sex robot stuff), it will prove to be significantly more accurate than phone polling ever was. idk if this will be "soon," dude. most of these algorithms as they exist today are essentially solely ways to milk more money from folks that want to advertise on these platforms, and are a far cry from actually "targeting" or "relevant." if you need proof, go to your twitter or insta settings and see what categories they think you're in, and what interests they think you have.
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Dec 10, 2020 18:00
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TulliusCicero posted:...Phone conversations actually suck though? maybe if you're a giant nerd
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Dec 10, 2020 18:03
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Acebuckeye13 posted:maybe if you're a giant nerd e: Seriously though, I think it's probably not a great time to rebuild polling. Covid has made poo poo really weird in ways that I don't even want to predict. And we can't yet know what's a real trend and what's just covid. dwarf74 fucked around with this message at 18:06 on Dec 10, 2020 |
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Dec 10, 2020 18:04
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Qwertycoatl posted:What happens in ten years time when all the 80 year old democrats turn into 90 year olds and retire? Will they be replaced with a new crop of 70 year olds turned 80, or is there something of an age jump that will let actually younger people take over? Grassley hasn't ruled out another run when his term ends in '22. He'll be 91. Both he and Diane Feinstein are two years younger than Mikhail Gorbechev.
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Dec 10, 2020 18:06
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NaanViolence posted:Everyone blames it on all the spam, but a huge part of this phenomenon is caused by entire generations being too socially inept and anxious to have an actual phone conversation, and normalizing that is hilarious. Texting is so goddamned shallow and humans are not good at it when compared with talking. Texting is freedom from the painful formalities of having to strategically pull out of a phone conversation that outstays its welcome in a polite way. It allows people to make more thoughtful replies to things at a pace that is comfortable to them without obligating them to talk in real time.
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Dec 10, 2020 18:51
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NaanViolence posted:What is the wonkish response to the fact that humans no longer have the ability to do accurate political polling in the US? Is anybody actually redoing polling from the ground up like it needs? Diversify the way you poll is going to have to be one of them. Some combination of mail, phone, and internet polling.
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Dec 10, 2020 18:59
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Mooseontheloose posted:Diversify the way you poll is going to have to be one of them. Some combination of mail, phone, and internet polling. Except polling firms that did do a mix of those, including ones that let people respond on their own time (online and texting), were still badly off too. I think the net effect was that not doing live caller polls tended to take 1 or 2 points away from Biden.
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Dec 10, 2020 19:04
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Deteriorata posted:The surge in spam robocalling in the last few years means that no one answers their phone anymore, so phone-based polling only connects with the few remaining weirdos who will answer the phone from an unknown number. This is probably the best solution. Get a group of a few thousand people who will reliably respond to your poll, and rotate through them. We get so much crap thrown at us on a daily basis, that it would seem impossible for a polling agency to get enough regular people to answer the phone. Maybe you could switch to online surveys, but you’d still probably need to get a group of people already willing to be surveyed on a somewhat regular basis for it to be of any use. Paying people for their time may need to be done too, even though I know that’s not how it works now, but that would at least get more people to respond.
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Dec 10, 2020 19:07
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Deteriorata posted:The surge in spam robocalling in the last few years means that no one answers their phone anymore, so phone-based polling only connects with the few remaining weirdos who will answer the phone from an unknown number. Phone spam is a big enough problem in enough ways beyond polling that it really needs a solution at the infrastructure level. I'm surprised how little it's brought up in politics because it's such a universally relatable issue. There are legitimate reasons to make a call look like it's coming from a different number, but if that were a paid service that could be revoked if abused the problem would vanish. NaanViolence posted:Everyone blames it on all the spam, but a huge part of this phenomenon is caused by entire generations being too socially inept and anxious to have an actual phone conversation, and normalizing that is hilarious. Texting is so goddamned shallow and humans are not good at it when compared with talking. too bad more people aren't cool and good like you
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Dec 10, 2020 19:09
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NaanViolence posted:Everyone blames it on all the spam, but a huge part of this phenomenon is caused by entire generations being too socially inept and anxious to have an actual phone conversation, and normalizing that is hilarious. Texting is so goddamned shallow and humans are not good at it when compared with talking. Sorry for not answering your call dad. 
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Dec 10, 2020 19:24
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Blue Footed Booby posted:Phone spam is a big enough problem in enough ways beyond polling that it really needs a solution at the infrastructure level. I'm surprised how little it's brought up in politics because it's such a universally relatable issue. There are legitimate reasons to make a call look like it's coming from a different number, but if that were a paid service that could be revoked if abused the problem would vanish. There’s already the Do Not Call registry, and I’m pretty sure spam calling and spoofing numbers is already illegal. It’s just that enforcement is either hard, or just barely done. It’s not like we need more laws on the matter.
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Dec 10, 2020 19:31
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Bird in a Blender posted:There’s already the Do Not Call registry, and I’m pretty sure spam calling and spoofing numbers is already illegal. It’s just that enforcement is either hard, or just barely done. It’s not like we need more laws on the matter. So enforcement gets weird.
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Dec 10, 2020 19:38
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NaanViolence posted:What is the wonkish response to the fact that humans no longer have the ability to do accurate political polling in the US? Is anybody actually redoing polling from the ground up like it needs? Polling is forever an inexact science trying to error correct for the errors in polling in the last election. There were large misses this year because no one knew how to forecast massive turnout, for Trump voters generally, or during a pandemic.
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Dec 10, 2020 19:48
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Yeah my wife uses an official number spoofing app for her VA job so that her personal cell shows up as the hospital’s number when she calls patients.
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Dec 10, 2020 20:22
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Susan Rice is to head Domestic Policy Council, and McDonough for Vet Affairs.
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Dec 10, 2020 20:26
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NaanViolence posted:Everyone blames it on all the spam, but a huge part of this phenomenon is caused by entire generations being too socially inept and anxious to have an actual phone conversation, and normalizing that is hilarious. Texting is so goddamned shallow and humans are not good at it when compared with talking. Social media has ruined our faith in fellow man. The media glosses over nuance for clickbait. We believe we have all the answers to the worlds problems because we watched a few YouTube Videos instead of having an actual dialogue we instead scream at each other.
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Dec 11, 2020 00:46
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People also move to completely different states and dont change their phone number with cell phones. I have to imagine that makes it harder to poll
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Dec 11, 2020 00:54
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clean ayers act posted:People also move to completely different states and dont change their phone number with cell phones. I have to imagine that makes it harder to poll That's something I hadn't considered. I live in Pennsylvania— no landline, admittedly— but I don't think I got a single poll call on my cell. However, that cell is a New Jersey number.
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Dec 11, 2020 03:03
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https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1337243797466603522?s=20 Obama got a big bump from "not Bush" (see: Nobel Peace Prize), and it looks like we're going to see some similar activity wrt: Biden, at least for a time. However, I think it'll be easier for Biden to fulfill his essential promise; Obama's was "Hope and Change" and Biden was "Not Literally Donald Trump the Specific Person"
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Dec 11, 2020 05:21
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Biden is going to win two Nobel peace prizes. I read some factoid about how an incoming president is always or almost always Man of the Year so no real surprise there. But as far as the “greatest means person with the most individual impact on world events” like Stalin and Hitler (twice!) Man of the Year, it's Trump and has been for four years. It is funny they are purposely not giving it to him because he wants it so bad.
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Dec 11, 2020 05:29
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People crave a sense of normalcy, competence, and stability. Who knows, maybe how insane the republicans are will turn the general consensus among Serious People against them as a whole; they might realize the problem wasn't Trump, it was the party.
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Dec 11, 2020 05:31
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Grondoth posted:People crave a sense of normalcy, competence, and stability. Who knows, maybe how insane the republicans are will turn the general consensus among Serious People against them as a whole; they might realize the problem wasn't Trump, it was the party. I find this take astounding. Who among us has this persons courage to hope?
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Dec 11, 2020 05:34
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Bird in a Blender posted:There’s already the Do Not Call registry, and I’m pretty sure spam calling and spoofing numbers is already illegal. It’s just that enforcement is either hard, or just barely done. It’s not like we need more laws on the matter. The supreme court is about to cut down the law that outlaws it.
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Dec 11, 2020 05:38
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Pick posted:https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1337243797466603522?s=20 The new president almost always wins Time's person of the year.
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Dec 11, 2020 05:39
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How often has a vice president won person of the year?
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Dec 11, 2020 05:43
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It’s just a magazine
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Dec 11, 2020 07:15
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Grondoth posted:People crave a sense of normalcy, competence, and stability. Who knows, maybe how insane the republicans are will turn the general consensus among Serious People against them as a whole; they might realize the problem wasn't Trump, it was the party. I think we're already seeing that already, with the suburbs and educated people switching from R to D as their default position. For most of my life what was considered the default "reasonable" positions were mostly Republican positions. If you live in a Panera Bread or Whole Foods county or whatever, saying you're a Republican is beginning to look bad. They're rapidly becoming the party that you can't talk about in polite society. What's going to be hard for Democrats is to hold the coalition of reasonable suburban folks and more left wing AOC type folks, but it's no more difficult than the utterly bizarre coalition Republicans have held together for 60years of libertarians, chamber of commerce business people, and Christian conservatives.
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Dec 11, 2020 16:19
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paternity suitor posted:What's going to be hard for Democrats is to hold the coalition of reasonable suburban folks and more left wing AOC type folks, but it's no more difficult than the utterly bizarre coalition Republicans have held together for 60years of libertarians, chamber of commerce business people, and Christian conservatives. I disagree. The GOP has been able to tie big business, libertarians and evangelical Christians together because they all want to be left alone to be as horrible to other people as the free market will allow them to be. It is a party whose main internal ideological disputes center on what degree of "nothing" they want to do. Democrats on the other hand have to sell an array of active policies with stated ends that people can easily dispute over, especially when those policies involve some level of personal sacrifice, whether that is in the form of tax increases or school resources or property values or general cost of living and prices of goods. The Democrats are a big tent that is constantly in danger of falling down.
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Dec 11, 2020 16:36
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Eric Cantonese posted:I disagree. The GOP has been able to tie big business, libertarians and evangelical Christians together because they all want to be left alone to be as horrible to other people as the free market will allow them to be. It is a party whose main internal ideological disputes center on what degree of "nothing" they want to do. yeah, the fundamental thing uniting republicans is "i don't care about the rest of the world, leave me alone," which is easy to unite on. on the other hand, "i care about the rest of the world and think it should change" invites a huge amount of disagreement about HOW it should change, or what change should be prioritized, which makes unifying around individual candidates and policies much harder.
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Dec 11, 2020 16:39
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The Christian conservatives, however, are absolutely not live and let live. I mean, one of their main positions is denying people abortions.
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Dec 11, 2020 16:56
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Pick posted:The Christian conservatives, however, are absolutely not live and let live. I mean, one of their main positions is denying people abortions. They like being left alone to be horrible to other people, whether it's through running their horrific private universities or primary schools or letting their charitable organizations discriminate on religious grounds while get government funding. Libertarians and rich people (to the extent that's not a redundant combination) don't care what Christians want as long as they are not personally affected or otherwise able to buy their way out. You don't want abortion in Missouri? That's cool. I'll just go out of the state. Thanks for okaying the tax breaks.
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Dec 11, 2020 17:07
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Rural farmers however want huge subsidies, many Republican business owners want trade protections.... They want the police to shoo black people out of their gated communities. Both sides have a vision for what they want the government to enforce. One of them is just extremely socially regressive with an economic structure that benefits them and no one else. The idea that Republicans seek a small government or that this is the default, is just not true--I'd say that the "libertarian" presence in the Republican party is all but entirely fake and more of a marketing tool than anything they apply.
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Dec 11, 2020 17:13
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