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I hope Egypt doesn’t start to get funny ideas about training and supplying rebels to get leverage over dam negotiations
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Nov 29, 2020 15:22
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Squalid posted:I hope Egypt doesn’t start to get funny ideas about training and supplying rebels to get leverage over dam negotiations Oof. Same.
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Nov 29, 2020 15:49
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I can see the TPLF trying to shift to a more guerilla campaign operating from the countryside, how much territory the federal forces actually controls outside key transit corridors does remain up in the air, but the loss of a resupply corridor to Eastern Sudan which is pretty rife with smugglers (also serving Eritrea) makes this a much bigger challenge then ever before for them. A quick capture of Mekelle allows Abiy to appoint a new transitional regional government with a degree of international credibility and shift the focus away from a military campaign to a more conventional police action, he's already signalled the federal police will now assume responsibility for arresting the TPLF leadership at large, which will smooth things over somewhat in terms of optics for the international community. Whether or not he goes through with transferring the Welkait/Wolqayt and Raya districts back to Amhara is a big dangling question, AFP managed to make it to Humera a few days ago and reported that Amhara regional administrators where in the town running it and seemed to be openly discussing re-annexing all territory formerly in Gondor before 91 which is a huge chunk of western Tigray. Considering the knock on effect that could have with an emboldened Amharan nationalism in Oromia and elsewhere it would seem incredibly unwise for the federal government to actually go through with it but if these territories are actively in the hands of the Amhara regional government voluntarily surrendering them after they've been a focal point for protests for several years also seems pretty fraught.
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Nov 29, 2020 16:13
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Bloomberg posted:Conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region is still rife despite Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s assertions on Saturday that government troops ceased military operations in the dissident province after capturing its capital, according to the region’s president. More re: claim they shot down a MiG https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1333105439681212418
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Nov 30, 2020 01:16
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kustomkarkommando posted:More re: claim they shot down a MiG I have to admit, that is bad rear end
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Nov 30, 2020 18:14
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Ethnic Map of Ethiopia. Tigray is that yellow triangle at the top
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Dec 2, 2020 17:31
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The US House is holding a hearing with witnesses on the subject of the Tigray war right now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0lLU-kTvQE
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Dec 3, 2020 21:15
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Kuluhama...%5Es1_&ref_url=
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Dec 3, 2020 23:56
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Wait Eritrean troops are in Mekelle?
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Dec 4, 2020 00:11
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Zedhe Khoja posted:Wait Eritrean troops are in Mekelle?
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Dec 4, 2020 00:14
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Zedhe Khoja posted:Wait Eritrean troops are in Mekelle? the people protesting certainly believe that, as that is what the TPLF claims.
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Dec 4, 2020 00:19
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PawParole posted:Ethnic Map of Ethiopia. Tigray is that yellow triangle at the top
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Dec 8, 2020 17:51
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:I would love to see one of these sized proportionate to population 
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Dec 8, 2020 20:13
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:I would love to see one of these sized proportionate to population Why? It doesn’t really matter. I mean both Tigraians and Sidamo are like 5 percent of Ethiopians, but which one had/has more power?
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Dec 9, 2020 00:43
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There has been shockingly little coming out of Ethiopia, even a week after the capture of Mekele, but BBC has a probably-reasonably-sourced article about the start of the conflict: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55215431 It looks all but certain that the TPLF did indeed start the current war. It seems like the Ethiopian military indeed is in Mekele but that rather no one has control over it. ENDF does seem to have full control over Axum as there are a lot of people celebrating at the Our Lady of Zion church ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIaBCMPuQ4U ), which is just a couple hundred meters from the center of town — and directly across the street from the ancient obelisks, and is immediately next to where the "original" ark of the covenant is stored. No damage to the Our Lady of Zion stained glass either, just like there was no major damage to the Axum airport despite reports that it was "destroyed" ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owXR2dMJn7o ; it'd take 3 glaziers like a week to fix the entirety of that damage and maybe a couple more guys to repave the 1 meter gash ripped into the runway). It doesn't seem like there has, at any point, been particularly heavy fighting except in Humera. Saladman fucked around with this message at 11:50 on Dec 10, 2020 |
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Dec 10, 2020 11:17
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PawParole posted:Why? It doesn’t really matter.
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Dec 10, 2020 17:47
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https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337067127455539201
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Dec 10, 2020 18:11
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Apparently part of a deal with Morocco to get them to restore their relationship with Israel?
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Dec 10, 2020 18:31
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PawParole posted:Why? It doesn’t really matter. Don’t think we understand each other. I’m saying population size in Ethiopia doesn’t correlate 1:1 to political heft. Saladman posted:There has been shockingly little coming out of Ethiopia, even a week after the capture of Mekele, but BBC has a probably-reasonably-sourced article about the start of the conflict: I’d personally say that the central government did. Pre-War Troop movements make it clear.
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Dec 11, 2020 17:22
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So Cote D'Ivoire just had an election. The incumbent President was running for a third term despite that teeechnically being unconstitutional. The best known opposition leaders were disqualified from running in advance and most of the rest boycotted. Security services fired on protesters in aftermath and images show several killed. All seems a bit poo poo imo https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/14/africa/ivory-coast-president-ouattara-intl/index.html quote:(CNN)On November 9, a group of men gathered in a dusty town in southern Ivory Coast that sits at the junction of two major highways. The group walked onto the road to block traffic to protest the re-election of Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara. I'm sure Trump is feeling green with envy right about now
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Dec 14, 2020 22:47
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https://twitter.com/MOISOMALIA/stat...ghtmode%3Dfalse Somalia announces that it cut ties with Kenya
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Dec 15, 2020 02:24
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PawParole posted:https://twitter.com/MOISOMALIA/stat...ghtmode%3Dfalse
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Dec 15, 2020 02:40
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Grouchio posted:Would like to know why. Kenyan government is trying to interfere with the Somali election.
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Dec 15, 2020 02:43
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How coherent is the Somali state these days? Is the leader still the ruler of half a city block in Mogadishu or is there real authority behind this?
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Dec 15, 2020 05:11
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Zedhe Khoja posted:How coherent is the Somali state these days? Is the leader still the ruler of half a city block in Mogadishu or is there real authority behind this? Well it’s a bit better than that, but how much better depends on how you choose to define the Somali state. The motley alliance of governors/warlords who head the regional governments are the state in most of the country, and the Federal government mostly represents their interests. For a medium length summary of some of the assorted armed factions in the country, this report from January is still fairly relevant: The Problem with Militias in Somalia: ALMOST EVERYONE WANTS THEM DESPITE THEIR DANGERS
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Dec 15, 2020 06:53
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Telephone service has been reconnected in much of Tigray, including Mekele. Abiy was there yesterday too, at the airport: The TPLF claims to have retaken Axum also seem to be false, but I guess we'll get more info out of Tigray soon with electricity and phone service restored. It doesn't sound like there has been much fighting lately though, and flights to Gondar airport have been resumed.
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Dec 15, 2020 12:05
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Squalid posted:So Cote D'Ivoire just had an election. The incumbent President was running for a third term despite that teeechnically being unconstitutional. The best known opposition leaders were disqualified from running in advance and most of the rest boycotted. Security services fired on protesters in aftermath and images show several killed. All seems a bit poo poo imo There is a little more to it than that, the incumbent originally was standing down but his replacement died due to ill health after surgery in France. The ruling party did not feel anyone else had the gravitas of the incumbent so lawyered the rules around terms (number of terms rule was brought in by the current incumbent after he started and therefore they decided it didn't count in the score when the obvious successor died). The best known opposition leaders are the leaders that refused to leave office when elected out 2010 and thousands of people died to force them to respect the election result after being in charge for a very long time. He was disqualified for the rioting and election violence he led in support of ignoring the election results. Boycotting the election was probably more a nod to that the party Ouattara has led been likely to win the election anyway because things overall seem to be getting better in Cote D'Ivoire. In fact the group of them (both the current incumbent and the best known opposition) have been at the center of Cote D'Ivoire politics for decades and are all old men - 70's. The fellow that died was ironically a decade or more younger than all the grizzled old veterans that can't let go. There certainly has been violence, I was stuck onsite while talking to my partner over the phone with gunfire and flashbangs in the streets directly outside our apartment in the background - evidently Ouattara has an election office nearby or something. After a week of that it rained quite a lot and it has since been calm in Abidjan at least. Turns out sticks and stones my break my bones but gently caress getting wet.
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Dec 15, 2020 12:28
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That is some interesting context. Thanks for providing it. I might have been more charitable but the President came off absolutely terrible in that interview. Hopefully things will stay quiet.
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Dec 15, 2020 17:36
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Ethiopian troops ambushed Sudanese border guards in Al-Fashqa, and killed 4.
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Dec 17, 2020 01:33
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PawParole posted:Ethiopian troops ambushed Sudanese border guards in Al-Fashqa, and killed 4. I'd never heard of that border conflict before, and I had a hell of a time finding a single article that actually showed a map of the disputed region. I see the town of الفشقة next to the border (variously transliterated as Al-Fushqa and Al-Fashqa https://www.google.com/maps/place/%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%82+%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B4%D9%82%D8%A9%E2%80%AD/@14.2679995,36.5328322,16.38z ). That town looks like it was always under Sudanese control and indeed has no access to it from Ethiopia. Eventually I found https://www.marefa.org/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B4%D9%82%D8%A9 which linked to this map:  And apparently because SomethingAwful hasn't been updated in 20 years, it can't be linked here because it uses Arabic letters in the filename, but if you copy & paste it you can see bold lines at the Atbara river (N/S) and the Tekeze (E-W) and a thinner line south which is the Angereb. I traced this in Google Maps and it is 600 km^2, which is in line with media reports of the disputed area (e.g. https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/2230021/al-fashqa-returns-sudanese-sovereignty-after-agreement-ethiopia ). With the new dam/lake on the Atbara just upstream of Showak, it's odd that they ever would have been OK ceding nominal control to that area. What's further odd is that large new towns have been built to house the people displaced by the creation of the Atbara dam, finished in 2017, so what I want to know is: who built this brand new town? https://www.google.com/maps/dir/14.1809667,36.0319486/@14.183829,35.9858501,18546m/data=!3m1!1e3 If that territory was under theoretical Ethiopian control until just now? I guess that whole area would have been more or less inaccessible to the Sudanese government for large construction projects there is no road leading to Sudan, while conversely it is connected by land to Ethiopia. It's interesting that the Atbara doesn't form the modern border between Sudan and Ethiopia, instead it's a straight line border that's like 5 km to the east of the Atbara. Samuel Baker wrote a fascinating book about going through that area with his wife in the mid 1860s (The Albert N'Yanza Great Basin Of The Nile; And Exploration Of The Nile Sources). He was later one of the main British colonial administrators of the region, so drawing a random straight line on a map would not have made sense to him. Maybe they wanted a buffer zone so that they could theoretically fortify both sides of the river. At the time when he was there, the area east of the Atbara up until the foothills of Ethiopia was uninhabited due to the constant danger of Turkish slavers, Ethiopian raiders, and it generally being swampy and loaded with malaria, sleeping sickness, yellow fever, and every other tropical lowland disease, so there would not have been any consideration for the locals — not that they would have made any such consideration even if it had been inhabited.
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Dec 17, 2020 14:58
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PawParole posted:Don’t think we understand each other. I’m saying population size in Ethiopia doesn’t correlate 1:1 to political heft. PawParole posted:Ethiopian troops ambushed Sudanese border guards in Al-Fashqa, and killed 4.
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Dec 18, 2020 00:08
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:Right, that's exactly what I'm saying...that's why seeing the population size of each ethnic group is interesting. literally no one in the region cares about that dam. This is over al-fasaqa.
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Dec 18, 2020 17:22
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/23/gunmen-kill-dozens-in-ethiopias-benishangul-gumuz-rights-body Jesus Christ.
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Dec 24, 2020 14:00
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ToxicAcne posted:https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/23/gunmen-kill-dozens-in-ethiopias-benishangul-gumuz-rights-body https://twitter.com/AsemahagnAseres...%5Es1_&ref_url= the former president being of course, mengistu
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Dec 24, 2020 14:32
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ho ho ho https://mobile.twitter.com/USAfricaCommand/status/1342163115669151746
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Dec 24, 2020 21:46
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i say swears online posted:ho ho ho What?
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Dec 25, 2020 04:24
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reposted https://mobile.twitter.com/USAfricaCommand/status/1342227842730496000 edit https://mobile.twitter.com/USAfricaCommand/status/1342405575141896192 the original said al shabab was on the naughty list i say swears online fucked around with this message at 19:17 on Dec 25, 2020 |
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Dec 25, 2020 07:58
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i say swears online posted:reposted That one's gone too
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Dec 25, 2020 11:12
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https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1343910660107714560 https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1343988919466041344 PawParole fucked around with this message at 04:24 on Dec 30, 2020 |
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Dec 30, 2020 04:21
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