(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
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wolfs posted:is that not an actual strategy? Xi hunts them down for sport on one of the Spratleys
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Dec 22, 2020 10:36
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| # ? May 26, 2024 17:22 |
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Is there any viable pathway for Taiwan to achieve independence? Even ignoring that their constitution binds them to the mainland, to declare independence would certainly lead to economic sanctions from China and be a total disaster for Taiwan. And as time goes on, the inbalance between Taiwan and the mainland will grow and the costs of declaring independence will grow with it. If they're not willing to bite the bullet now, why would they be further down the line?
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Dec 22, 2020 14:34
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Short of china balkanizing first there is no viable path for taiwan to be independent
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Dec 22, 2020 14:42
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Chomskyan posted:Is there any viable pathway for Taiwan to achieve independence? Even ignoring that their constitution binds them to the mainland, to declare independence would certainly lead to economic sanctions from China and be a total disaster for Taiwan. And as time goes on, the inbalance between Taiwan and the mainland will grow and the costs of declaring independence will grow with it. If they're not willing to bite the bullet now, why would they be further down the line? someone might give them nuclear weapons?
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Dec 22, 2020 14:46
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The only window of opportunity IMO is in the 80s， before the death of Jiang Jin Guo (Chiang Ching-kuo), and Taiwan has to get to its "effective independence" by way of negotiate a loose confederation with mainland. Before I go on, you have to understand geopolitically, the Taiwan island doesn't have a lot of choices due to its physical distance from the continent. It was separated from the mainland political body 3 times since Qing and it was "taken over" by new external force 3 times, all due to its physically distance. And since unity has always been PRC's narrative since Mao, it's impossible for Taiwan to achieve effective independence without at least paying lip service to the idea of unification. So IMO this is the upper limit of Taiwan's independence movement, if you disagree on the upper limit we can talk about it in a different post. Now that we have established the upper limit, what was Taiwan's best window opportunity to achieve it? That would be when Taiwan was most powerful economically and militarily relative to mainland and was holding more cards against China. Taiwan started its economic reform 20 years before China, and had a lot of left over american military gear during the 80s. In the 80s, mainland was in a position that needed a lot of FDI and know-how from the oversea business. Taiwanese business investment was very important to mainland and could have been even more important. Now you may argue, Taiwan's "economic miracle" (and Japan and Korea's) heavily relied on the US contracts and support, Taiwan could not have kicked out the influence US and switched alliance which frankly would upset the balance of cold war. Yes that's true. That's why Taiwan only had a small chance of doing it under the military dictatorship of Jiang. US may still assassinate Jiang to stop his tango with mainland but KMT could have continued his unification trojectrary. Don't forget US destroyed Taiwan's secret nuclear plan in 1988 one day before Jiang's death. Taiwan could have gone "rogue" a couple years before that under US sanction and start confederation talk with PRC. Ultimately, that was Taiwan's only window to retain most self rule in the long run. stephenthinkpad has issued a correction as of 16:21 on Dec 22, 2020 |
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Dec 22, 2020 16:18
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listening to this talk from 2014 between eric li (pro-CPC), james fallows (the atlantic) and minxin pei (chinese-american liberal) it's interesting as a then/now experiment. but i just came across this part where pei whiffs it looking back six years later: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-YSiWJ9WP0
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Dec 22, 2020 16:50
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Chomskyan posted:Is there any viable pathway for Taiwan to achieve independence? Even ignoring that their constitution binds them to the mainland, to declare independence would certainly lead to economic sanctions from China and be a total disaster for Taiwan. And as time goes on, the inbalance between Taiwan and the mainland will grow and the costs of declaring independence will grow with it. If they're not willing to bite the bullet now, why would they be further down the line? Either they get nukes, something happens in China where the state collapses, or (least likely) China releases its claims on the island. I believe they should be independent, as is their right, but it's not likely.
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Dec 22, 2020 17:22
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They could remain in status quo for another century. Maybe both sides decide to not rock the boat and escalate?stephenthinkpad posted:Taiwan started its economic reform 20 years before China, and had a lot of left over american military gear during the 80s. That explains my pointing out the irony of Taiwanese capitalists exploiting mainland labor.
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Dec 22, 2020 19:25
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Protagorean posted:in a stunning reverse-psychology gambit Taiwan recognizes Beijing's sovereignty over them. Xi never sees it coming Ah yes, the empty Taiwan strategem. The PLN/A rolls up, expecting a fight. Instead, the Taiwanese armed forces are nowhere to be seen and the path to Taipei is wide open. Tsai Ing-Wen sits, playing the guqin. Expecting a trap, the Communist forces withdraw.
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Dec 22, 2020 19:49
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Maximo Roboto posted:They could remain in status quo for another century. Maybe both sides decide to not rock the boat and escalate? Admittedly, the PRC at a certain point would probably use its massive economic leverage to demand further political concessions from Taiwan, although this would likely still fall well short of direct rule. Beijing is playing the long-game and there really isn't much Taipei can do absent a massive showdown.
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Dec 22, 2020 20:28
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sincx has issued a correction as of 05:32 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Dec 22, 2020 20:28
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Cross-strait problem has always been reflection of the Sino-US problem. Asking when mainland will rule over Taiwan basically is asking when can China push US out of SCS + 5 years.
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Dec 22, 2020 20:53
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Mantis42 posted:Ah yes, the empty Taiwan strategem. The PLN/A rolls up, expecting a fight. Instead, the Taiwanese armed forces are nowhere to be seen and the path to Taipei is wide open. Tsai Ing-Wen sits, playing the guqin. Expecting a trap, the Communist forces withdraw.
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Dec 22, 2020 21:02
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Maximo Roboto posted:It would be funny to try to make one country, two systems in the wake of all that's happen in Hong Kong. It wouldn't last very long, but it'd be very funny if they called Beijing's bluff and took their promises at face value. Expanding upon this idea, I'm imagining how loud and noisy a Taiwan SAR could behave, in line with the shenanigans of the HK protest movements. And when the mainland does have to come crack down upon it, they'd have to ship in military/police across the strait, an arduous logistical hassle. Something about destabilizing a host nation from within.
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Dec 22, 2020 21:10
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Mantis42 posted:Ah yes, the empty Taiwan strategem. The PLN/A rolls up, expecting a fight. Instead, the Taiwanese armed forces are nowhere to be seen and the path to Taipei is wide open. Tsai Ing-Wen sits, playing the guqin. Expecting a trap, the Communist forces withdraw. waiting for the winds to change direction and engulf the chinese fleet in stinky tofu fumes
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Dec 22, 2020 21:25
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A better question is, is there a pathway for China to reclaim Taiwan, and short of China politically liberalizing I don't really see a viable one either edit: or catastrophic war, or we kick the can down the road another several decades
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Dec 22, 2020 22:11
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What if the US collapses and balkanizes
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Dec 22, 2020 22:13
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Zhuge Jinping borrow Hsiung Feng missiles with boats of straw.
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Dec 22, 2020 22:13
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Happy Thread posted:What if the US collapses and balkanizes "what if" honestly Taiwan would want to get a nuke and fast and a collapsing USA is going to put those things out into the market~
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Dec 22, 2020 22:18
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I mean doesn't that speed up what's possible for Taiwan
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Dec 22, 2020 22:19
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sincx has issued a correction as of 05:32 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Dec 22, 2020 22:22
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sincx posted:Would Taiwan trying to get a nuke be enough of a casus belli for the mainland to invade? Nukes might change exactly how righteously offended the press release out of Brussels would be.
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Dec 22, 2020 22:28
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I still maintain invasion is unforeseeable for now because ever since post-WWII, advanced states don't really fight each other directly. Too much at stake for middle class consumers. Has the PRC truly replaced all of the supply chain and other financial links they might rely on in Taiwan? Are those big coastal middle classes willing to suffer the temporary dip in standards of living that would come with sanctions from an invasion? It feels like these nations won't really go for all-out war unless they can truly get away with not pissing off their citizen-buyers. Or if they have nothing to lose, which at that point anything's possible.
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Dec 22, 2020 23:02
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:listening to this talk from 2014 between eric li (pro-CPC), james fallows (the atlantic) and minxin pei (chinese-american liberal) what i got from this video is that no one in the west knows anything about china and is baffled by it regardless of any information you provide
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Dec 23, 2020 01:04
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Happy Thread posted:What if the US collapses and balkanizes I imagine if the US balkanizes a lot of conflict is going to happen all at once. I can see China invading Taiwan like immediately and Libya/Syria light up. A lot of minor regional powers would likely get nukes at this point for protection. The Korean war would also probably start again, unless China stepped in. Maximo Roboto posted:I still maintain invasion is unforeseeable for now because ever since post-WWII, advanced states don't really fight each other directly. Too much at stake for middle class consumers. Has the PRC truly replaced all of the supply chain and other financial links they might rely on in Taiwan? Are those big coastal middle classes willing to suffer the temporary dip in standards of living that would come with sanctions from an invasion? It feels like these nations won't really go for all-out war unless they can truly get away with not pissing off their citizen-buyers. Or if they have nothing to lose, which at that point anything's possible. They'd be willing to take the dip because it's a point of national pride; the party believes they have a historical blood right to the land and it would be a major victory for the state to have One China back.
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Dec 23, 2020 01:08
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Grapplejack posted:I imagine if the US balkanizes a lot of conflict is going to happen all at once. I can see China invading Taiwan like immediately and Libya/Syria light up. A lot of minor regional powers would likely get nukes at this point for protection. The Korean war would also probably start again, unless China stepped in. nationalism is a disease
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Dec 23, 2020 01:12
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Taiwan getting invaded would be pretty bad for the gaming community as AMD parts would shoot up in price
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Dec 23, 2020 01:16
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I dont even think Taiwan getting nukes would be enough of a deterrent to stop a chinese invasion if they proclaim sovereignty
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Dec 23, 2020 01:17
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Cao Ni Ma posted:I dont even think Taiwan getting nukes would be enough of a deterrent to stop a chinese invasion if they proclaim sovereignty you'd be wrong Top City Homo posted:what i got from this video is that no one in the west knows anything about china and is baffled by it regardless of any information you provide "The whole of Japan is a pure invention." Oscar Wilde once wrote, "There is no such country, there are no such people"
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Dec 23, 2020 01:23
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Think about it, US low key letting Israel and Japan have nuke capacity but curb stomped Taiwan when they tried to do the same. It's basically a kind of racist decision that will come back and bite US in the end.
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Dec 23, 2020 01:32
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I feel like china could easily win an economic / cultural victory over Taiwan but they go for the diplomatic / military victory for some reason. If you offer Taiwanese tech companies to move from 內湖 to 南山區 in shenzhen with some favorable deals for their employees you'd decimate Taiwan's economy in a decade or less, give the artists residency in beijing or shanghai to destroy their culture and all that would be left on the island are the rabid pro green party families and some farmers. The biggest resistance to China is the same as you saw in Hongkong, the middle class would get squeezed and the elite who have nothing to gain from competing in the greater chinese economy want to keep their economic hermit kingdom. Taiwan has a much better deal going on and I don't think people there have much to gain from CCP rulership except maybe different people would get rich than are rich now, and that's why China will have an insanely hard time with peaceful occupation, though I don't think Taiwanese would rise up to fight en masse with violence either.
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Dec 23, 2020 01:33
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Grapplejack posted:I imagine if the US balkanizes a lot of conflict is going to happen all at once. I can see China invading Taiwan like immediately and Libya/Syria light up. A lot of minor regional powers would likely get nukes at this point for protection. The Korean war would also probably start again, unless China stepped in. Why those? Libya is on fire already with enough European powers involved to keep going even without the US and in Syria there is broadly a settlement favoring the anti-US side. I also don't really think that the US is what keeps the Korean War from restarting since the latest peace initiatives were driven by the Koreans themselves.
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Dec 23, 2020 01:35
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gradenko_2000 posted:Taiwan getting invaded would be pretty bad for the gaming community as AMD parts would shoot up in price maybe a hot war with China is the only way to spare the Earth heat death from bitcoin rigs
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Dec 23, 2020 01:35
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Cao Ni Ma posted:I dont even think Taiwan getting nukes would be enough of a deterrent to stop a chinese invasion if they proclaim sovereignty With how close they are they'd be able to hit Beijing and Shanghai in less than ten minutes
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Dec 23, 2020 01:38
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genericnick posted:Why those? Libya is on fire already with enough European powers involved to keep going even without the US and in Syria there is broadly a settlement favoring the anti-US side. I also don't really think that the US is what keeps the Korean War from restarting since the latest peace initiatives were driven by the Koreans themselves. My assumption is that with the US suddenly gone SK would have no backup from US forces, and that's a pretty big part of their defense program. For Libya I guess I'm overestimating the amount of US support for the provisional government but my assumption is that the US going down would throw Europe into a panic and the rebels would be able to take advantage of that to sweep the GNA. Syria is mostly being propped up by the US and when the weapons and money stop the rebels will probably just vanish or be routed quickly.
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Dec 23, 2020 01:45
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I just want to point out one interesting thing. Between North Korea and South Korea, there is barely any business transaction cross border; between mainland and Taiwan, there is huge amount of business and supply chain transections going back and fore. Last month, 48% of the Taiwan's export went to China. I don't remember the number but it's huge. Taiwanese investment in China actually have grown in 2020. You can't just chalk it up to mainland keep giving Taiwanese business preferential policy to keep them in the China ecosystem. The two Taiwanese ruling parties never had problem doing business with mainland. You can say neither of them ever considered the scenario of decoupling.
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Dec 23, 2020 02:00
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Maximo Roboto posted:I still maintain invasion is unforeseeable for now because ever since post-WWII, advanced states don't really fight each other directly. Too much at stake for middle class consumers. Has the PRC truly replaced all of the supply chain and other financial links they might rely on in Taiwan? Are those big coastal middle classes willing to suffer the temporary dip in standards of living that would come with sanctions from an invasion? It feels like these nations won't really go for all-out war unless they can truly get away with not pissing off their citizen-buyers. Or if they have nothing to lose, which at that point anything's possible. Wait until the water supply of various nations starts running out, then we'll see a return to traditional warfare with the added bonus of "tactical" nuclear weaponry Of course this is less a chinese problem and more concerning for africa the middle east and south asia
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Dec 23, 2020 02:09
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 "Neo-china" drat it's like I'm living in the cyberpunk game!
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Dec 23, 2020 02:11
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nice race baiting
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Dec 23, 2020 02:13
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| # ? May 26, 2024 17:22 |
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stephenthinkpad posted:Think about it, US low key letting Israel and Japan have nuke capacity but curb stomped Taiwan when they tried to do the same. It's basically a kind of racist decision that will come back and bite US in the end. Did the Japanese actually build any weapons? They've got capability on paper to do so with a crash program, but I've never heard of anyone pointing fingers at them saying they actually took the last step. Unlike Israel which had their production outed to the public by The Guardian.
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Dec 23, 2020 02:17
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