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James Garfield posted:The rate of turnout among black voters in Georgia is lower than it was for the general election (with Biden running). That is not the impression I got from what was posted earlier in the thread. quote:Biden did better in the city of Milwaukee than Obama did in 2008. Correct. No one is disputing that Joe Biden did better than Obama and I have no idea why you're re-stating it. As far as the population declining, it doesn't appear to be that meaningful in terms of scales that would be relevant to this discussion: https://law.marquette.edu/facultyblog/2019/08/whats-going-on-with-milwaukees-population/ Jaxyon posted:Substantive discussion would involve you giving substance to claims you're trying to make, I did that.
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Dec 31, 2020 03:17
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Judakel posted:I did that. No you provided data for a different argument. Not the statement I'm challenging you on. Which was: Jaxyon posted:Do black people think that Biden would be better for them than Trump?
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Dec 31, 2020 03:21
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Jaxyon posted:No you provided data for a different argument. Not the statement I'm challenging you on. No, that was the same argument. My apologies if I lost you along the way.
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Dec 31, 2020 03:24
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Judakel posted:No, that was the same argument. My apologies if I lost you along the way. Yes I'm aware you shifted it to an argument you could support rather than the one you knew you couldn't. That's why I called you on shifting and that's why you're complaining about me calling you on shifting. Jaxyon posted:Do black people think that Biden would be better for them than Trump? Turning this into a 10 post slapfight rather than backing up your arguments when asked increases the chance that you'll be able to get out of this without ever dealing with what I'm asking you to deal with.
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Dec 31, 2020 03:26
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Jaxyon posted:Yes I'm aware you shifted it to an argument you could support rather than the one you knew you couldn't. Oh, I see where the confusion lies. No, I didn't shift at all. Your opening volley was that I shifted, so I was simply correcting you on that front. Oh and backing up the same point I've always made, as I already did. A few posts later and here we are. I think I will just let you continue insisting that I shifted and I, in turn, will continue my conversation with the other posters in the thread.
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Dec 31, 2020 03:32
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Judakel posted:That is not the impression I got from what was posted earlier in the thread. edit: actually it was someone else who misread it earlier, here's the post vyelkin posted:It's share of the vote, but it's theoretically possible for overall turnout to rise as well. One of Stacey Abrams's winning GOTV revelations has been convincing people that they don't live in a red state, because she understands that telling someone they live in a red or a blue state affects their likelihood to jump through all the hoops to get their vote cast and counted. It's a lot easier to motivate yourself to do that if you think your vote is actually going to matter, but that's been an uphill battle in Georgia because it's been deep red for decades now. Judakel posted:Correct. No one is disputing that Joe Biden did better than Obama and I have no idea why you're re-stating it. So why did you post Milwaukee vote numbers in a post claiming that "the enthusiasm [of black voters for Biden] just wasn't there"? There are almost 10% fewer registered voters in Milwaukee now than there were in 2008, the numbers are on the site I linked a few posts ago.
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Dec 31, 2020 04:02
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James Garfield posted:No, black turnout is proportionally higher in the runoff - turnout is down for all demographic groups, but less among black voters than others (mostly white non college). https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1344303961818460162 However, due to Christmas and New Year's Eve there will be less days of early voting than during the general election. So total numbers will probably be somewhat smaller. Same goes for overall early voting - it looks like a similar rate of early voting, but likely less overall due to less days of early voting. https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1344298512457064449
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Dec 31, 2020 04:05
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James Garfield posted:You misread what was posted earlier in the thread, and it was pointed out to you that you misread it. Runoff turnout is lower than general election turnout in all demographic groups, but it has declined the least among black voters. So this particular issue is settled, then? quote:So why did you post Milwaukee vote numbers in a post claiming that "the enthusiasm [of black voters for Biden] just wasn't there"? I compared 2016 to 2020 because it was a more immediate and telling story of how things changed after living under Trump. Remember, the point that was made concerned Trump vs. Biden. While you're reading this, I want to point something out: you're saying that Biden did better than Obama '08, and I took you at your word. However, I went to check the number of votes when you mentioned the percentage drop in registered voters and it states Obama got 319,819 on Wikipedia. Biden got 194,661, per the election commission. Even if you account for the 10% drop in fewer registered voters and fiddle around with the burbs that is not "better". That is a greater than 10% drop in votes for the nominee I think. I know you're going off of the higher percentage, but that's not persuasive here. Edit: I should note that Wikipedia lists the total vote haul for Biden in 2020 as 317,270, less than the 319,819 that Obama got in 2008, but more than what is listed on the official site. By the way, the Hillary count and Biden count I first listed were both from the official site. By the way, this is what I am using for the city: https://city.milwaukee.gov/election/ElectionInformation/ElectionResults Judakel fucked around with this message at 05:27 on Dec 31, 2020 |
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Dec 31, 2020 04:18
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Judakel posted:However, I went to check the number of votes when you mentioned the percentage drop in registered voters and it states Obama got 319,819 on Wikipedia. Biden got 194,661, per the election commission. How can you post this all day without doing the 30 seconds of work required to discover that Milwaukee county is not the same as the city of Milwaukee  vvv: You use the same "archives" link that you used to get the 2016 results for the city of Milwaukee. James Garfield fucked around with this message at 05:07 on Dec 31, 2020 |
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Dec 31, 2020 04:50
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James Garfield posted:How can you post this all day without doing the 30 seconds of work required to discover that Milwaukee county is not the same as the city of Milwaukee I went exclusively off of the city site, so I have been talking about the city exclusively. I decided to expand to wikipedia when you kept bringing up Obama. Where are you getting your numbers for just the city of Milwaukee without the surroundings burbs for Obama? Because I have to go by the county if I am to have access to Obama's numbers. James Garfield posted:vvv: You use the same "archives" link that you used to get the 2016 results for the city of Milwaukee. I just used google, so thanks. Your point was that he overperformed (iirc) Obama when you factor in a 10% drop in population (in just the city, not county), but Obama got 213,436 and Biden got 194,661. That's barely overperforming by like 2000 votes. Not much of a point, but still a nice metric that is irrelevant to my original point. Judakel fucked around with this message at 05:22 on Dec 31, 2020 |
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Dec 31, 2020 04:54
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DTurtle posted:God drat are there many posts going up here with nary a number in sight! that's encouraging, but my brain hasn't managed to cludge together a new heuristic to handle polling and predictions after november. i'm trying to decide how i feel about these models and all that's inside is howling chaos and uncertainty
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Dec 31, 2020 06:16
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BiggerBoat posted:I really hope those GA polls are on point and that it turns out that people really DO need $2000 and will hold it against the GOP for fuking with that money but I'm not getting my hopes up. Republicans also need money, but they will crawl over broken glass to vote GOP anyway, as "Own the Libs" means more to them than life itself
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Dec 31, 2020 06:36
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OK, this is the numbers thread. Here are some numbers. Poster Judakel (not his real name, probably) has been probated 29 times and banned twice in 2020 alone. He has spent approximately 2,646 hours this year on probation, ie about 30.1% of the entire year. Moderators describe him as "a jerk", "a dick", "a shithead", an "edgy hardass that just doesn't give a poo poo", a "horrible", "terrible poster in literally every forum" who "make[s] ... thread[s] shittier by his presence", and "sucks and deserves to be banned". They describe his posting as an "awful", "egregiously bad" "constant stream of pointless low content bitching". Judakel is on the ignore lists of 544 users, which is maybe one eighth of what's left of the forums population. With that in mind, if you happen to not already have him on your ignore list, then I implore you, for the sake of the rest of us, not to engage with him. If you must, please try not to quote his posts. Thank you! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 31, 2020 08:55
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I comissioned some fast field polls on the above on did people expect the poster to eat a sixer: ABC - 93.5% WaPo/NYT - 96.2% Rasmussen - Trump 53% loving Rasmussen.
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Dec 31, 2020 10:00
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Rust Martialis posted:I comissioned some fast field polls on the above on did people expect the poster to eat a sixer: You’d think he’d have been banned for his 543 parachute accounts.
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Dec 31, 2020 17:08
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:that's encouraging, but my brain hasn't managed to cludge together a new heuristic to handle polling and predictions after november. i'm trying to decide how i feel about these models and all that's inside is howling chaos and uncertainty Yeah that’s how I feel too. Seems like there’s more chaos than ever in predictive analysis. Taken a step further a bunch of the traditional independent variables we associated with election success are no longer true. Like, ad buys and conventional campaigning didnt seem to matter much. Heck Biden did very little campaigning. Field staff and canvassing maybe is still the most (only?) effective tool?
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Dec 31, 2020 18:30
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Judakel posted:Oh, I see where the confusion lies. No, I didn't shift at all. Your opening volley was that I shifted, so I was simply correcting you on that front. Oh and backing up the same point I've always made, as I already did. A few posts later and here we are. I think I will just let you continue insisting that I shifted and I, in turn, will continue my conversation with the other posters in the thread. I've been pretty clear what statement you made, and I quoted it, and pointed out you refusing to back it up. Which you continue to do. It's fine, you know you avoided and I know you avoided it, that's the point I needed to make.
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Dec 31, 2020 20:31
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https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1344745674181648384?s=19
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Dec 31, 2020 21:50
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Jaxyon posted:I've been pretty clear what statement you made, and I quoted it, and pointed out you refusing to back it up. I just had a lengthy discussion with someone concerning information I used to back up my point. If you want to re-read it, you can find it by clicking on my post history in the thread.
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Dec 31, 2020 22:32
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I don't know if anyone forgot but let's remember one of Biden's nicknames was literally "Amtrak Joe".
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Dec 31, 2020 23:02
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Judakel posted:I just had a lengthy discussion with someone concerning information I used to back up my point. If you want to re-read it, you can find it by clicking on my post history in the thread. No, you had a lengthy conversation with information to back up a different point(enthusiasm), which you've decided also backs up the point I'm asking you to(qualitative), but it doesn't. I do understand that you want it to, which is why you keep just restating your premise. But as this is the wonk thread, I feel it's useful to point out your misdirection, it's also something you see when people are on political talk shows on cable news.
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Dec 31, 2020 23:29
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Jaxyon posted:No, you had a lengthy conversation with information to back up a different point(enthusiasm), which you've decided also backs up the point I'm asking you to(qualitative), but it doesn't. They're the same point worded in a slightly different way.
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Dec 31, 2020 23:45
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jaxyon, judakel, knock it off, thanks
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Jan 1, 2021 00:29
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1. What has D&D bitched about over the past week while I ate a probe? 2. How were House Republicans able to block a $2000 spending bill despite not having the majority, and why would they defy Trump? 3. Does this mean a covid bill is dead until inauguration? Is this a coup for the GOP or against McConnell? 4. Any good news from Georgia's runoff? 5. Is Moderna's FDA approval speeding up vaccine distribution yet?
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Jan 1, 2021 02:51
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Grouchio posted:1. What has D&D bitched about over the past week while I ate a probe? 1. What haven't they bitched about 2. Mitch won't bring it to a vote 3. No, we still get the mostly inadequate $600 one with all the other good stuff and bullshit. If Dems win Georgia we should expect more COVID bills. 4. Dems are leading according to polls. 5. That's a bit of a clusterfuck atm.
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Jan 1, 2021 02:58
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Speaking of polling data... Honestly the GA Election despite all the good work done still appears to be super-tight 50/50 race looking at aggregated polls? Maybe the Ds have a slight edge but not much if anything.
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Jan 1, 2021 03:08
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Yeah that’s how I feel too. you know, the freakonomics team always made the argument that campaign financing didn't produced winners, instead winners produced more money. they specifically noted that there's probably a saturation point where additional money loses marginal utility, which i think we probably first started seeing in races in the 2010's. when i first read that, i rolled my eyes and made a jerkoff motion, but maybe the rise of actblue allowing easy external donations, which is detaching fund raising from candidate quality, is demonstrating them to be correct and you can't turn a sows ear into a silk purse by throwing money at it. or maybe a giant warchest does have utility, but the established consulting groups don't know how to tap it the question is, how long does it take party apparatuses built around the concept of fundraising to come to terms with the fact that in at least some ways they're a relic? Gabriel S. posted:Speaking of polling data... Honestly the GA Election despite all the good work done still appears to be super-tight 50/50 race looking at aggregated polls? again, it's hard to trust polls, but honestly in an off election in georgia i'll gladly take 50-50. in mid-november i assumed this would shape up to be an obvious republican blowout. at the least it would be a slightly surprising republican blowout
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Jan 1, 2021 03:31
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Nevermind.
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Jan 1, 2021 03:44
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Gabriel S. posted:Speaking of polling data... Honestly the GA Election despite all the good work done still appears to be super-tight 50/50 race looking at aggregated polls? The election is probably close enough, and there are few enough runoff polls, that polls can't tell you much about who will win. The polls do imply that the scenario where all the Biden/Ossoff/Warnock voters in Atlanta suburbs remember that their counties are supposed to be Republican strongholds and vote Republican in the runoff isn't happening. The early voting looks more Democratic than it was in November, which is a good sign but Republicans could still win.
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Jan 1, 2021 03:55
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If the Dems end up getting 49 senators, does this thread think there is any chance that Collins can be bribed out of the Senate with a cabinet position? And are there any other potentially-bribable Republican Senators in states with blue governors?
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Jan 1, 2021 04:12
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Lol answer that with a deep though of no. There is not a way possible to do that.
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Jan 1, 2021 07:47
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Maybe Murkowski decides to become the most powerful person on the country. (Not really)
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Jan 1, 2021 10:35
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I think it's unlikely that Collins flips in a 49-51 situation, but not impossible like some others here think. She just won six more years and is getting pretty old, so it's possible she's thinking of retiring after this term. In that case she could either stay as a powerless Republican with Democrat president & house for 4/6 of those years, or be the most powerful person in the Democrat party if she flips. She could literally name any price to flip and the Democrats would give it to her if it meant controlling the Senate. And even if she decides to run for reelection in 2026, she is from Maine which is a much more favorable state to Democrats than other moderate GOP senators (e.g. Alaska, Utah). Murkowski is far less likely IMO since she has a reelection coming up in 2022 in a much deeper red state than Collins. She's also younger and is probably looking at at least two more terms after this. I think her flipping would kill any future political career she has, so she wouldn't do it. There is zero chance Romney flips. So while it's not a super likely, I don't think you can dismiss out of hand that Collins flips in a 49-51 situation. She could gain a tremendous amount of leverage in a situation where she would otherwise have little power. She would also have the power to block any legislation that is too left-wing for her tastes. She could essentially dictate the entire Democrat agenda for at least the first two years of Biden's term. I'd honestly be surprised if she (and the Democrats) haven't gamed out this scenario already.
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Jan 1, 2021 18:33
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Seph posted:Murkowski is far less likely IMO since she has a reelection coming up in 2022 in a much deeper red state than Collins. She's also younger and is probably looking at at least two more terms after this. I think her flipping would kill any future political career she has, so she wouldn't do it. There is zero chance Romney flips. Alaska passed a ballot initiative for ranked choice voting and a top four primary, so Murkowski is guaranteed to make it to the general election and then have all the Democrats rank her above a primary challenger. I think her risk of losing reelection is if a Democrat makes it to the final round of ranked choice voting and the Republican opponent gets more votes. I don't think Murkowski is likely to change parties, but I could see her changing to independent and voting for a D majority leader more than Collins.
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Jan 1, 2021 19:31
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I don’t see Collins full flipping, but I could see her furrowing her eyebrows into becoming an independent.
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Jan 1, 2021 19:37
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Alright my goon friends, let's start with some delicious number: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html Specifically, let me encourage you to sort by total votes. The take I've most seen on this data is racial in nature, which I frankly think is pretty dumb. The bigger story here is the relative turnout county by county with respect to november: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/30/us/politics/georgia-senate-early-voting.html (scroll down to "The breakdown of votes so far") This is exactly the trends that Democrats have needed to see in order to win: turnout in Atlanta, Savannah, and Augusta are down waaay less than rural areas, particularly the northwest corner of the state. The best margin counties for Trump are seeing the biggest drop in turnout relative to November early voting. The real takeaway for me about the relative increase in black voter representation is that it provides one more bulkhead against suburban flipping. Plus, while not the best quality, here's some more reason to be optimistic: https://www.11alive.com/article/new...d5-cf8ffb7db14f If that tracks anything like real sentiment (and the raw numbers aren't super far off the delta in early turnout out in Trump counties) that's one more argument that rural R votes are softer than suburban D votes. So yeah, nothing is sure, but this is basically the best case for a Democratic double win. There was never a scenario where this was a shoe in, or even easy to predict. Ok, now for some strat chat. I've rewritten this twice doing my best to not be a slapfighting bad poster. I probably failed: 1. Why are we talking about white working class voters? Because that's where the Republicans' strength is coming from. Aside from specifics like "hey if we can hold on to the Midwest R's can't break 270" this is extremely basic strategy: you should both try to win and you should prevent your opponent from winning. Laying out "why would we go after white working class votes when cities and suburbs have lots of Dem votes?" is just as dumb as saying "well why play defense at all, all our points come from offensive play". 2. So hey, it turns out that many poor working class people will vote for Republicans because they fear change and hate people who are different. Why, the ownership class even puts lots of effort into propagandizing these divisions and promoting worker vs worker conflicts! And they are rewarded for it! Outrageous! If your response to that is: Therefore those workers are scum because I am entitled to their undying love and eternal support because I have offered them a correct program of material benefits. Now that they have failed me, however, they do not deserve to prosper. You're not a leftist at all. You're either a reactionary waiting for their psychic wound to justify their CHUDery or a Stalinist who never had any concern for workers to begin with. That statement is, I think, as valid in a 1919 context as it is today. Speaking of history, the actual work of socialism has always been about building class consciousness and solidarity among workers. If you are a leftist, then it's natural to seek to build solidarity among workers as a way to break the power of the owner class. Incidentally, if you're a Democrat, it's natural to seek to build worker solidarity because unions break the power of Republican districts. Unless for other reasons you, as a Democrat, would prefer that workers aren't unionized. Oh, and irrelevant hot take: the Wobblies were right, trade unionism only invites piecemeal destruction a la Reagan, and Lenin was only interested in replacing the members of a ruling class built on exploitation. 3. Dealing with coal is the most visible of many difficult tensions between protecting jobs and workers and protecting humanity and the future of the earth. I would suggest that traditional socialism has a reflexive "protect workers always" lens that will reach the end of its usefulness as it turns out many workers are employed in the apocalypse factory. I'd suggest that there are many parallels to the tension between the IWW and trade unions as to whether and how differences in workers' interests can be resolved within a union. (As usual, I think the Wobblies were right.)
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Jan 1, 2021 19:37
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If we want to really reach, Pat Toomey or Ron Johnson might feel some heat running in PA or WI in 2022 and might bail for a White House position. However, we're talking about Toomey and Johnson here and we're trading a good chance of a pickup or two in 2022 for seats now that needs to be defended in 2022.
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Jan 1, 2021 19:46
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whydirt posted:I don’t see Collins full flipping, but I could see her furrowing her eyebrows into becoming an independent. Yeah, in this context I meant "flipping" to mean "voting with the D caucus" not necessarily flipping actual party registration. I do agree that the independent route is much more likely for both Murkowski and Collins
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Jan 1, 2021 19:48
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Centurium posted:Alright my goon friends, let's start with some delicious number: Stop it... I'm starting to feel hopeful! (Seriously though thanks for this post, it's very informative.)
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Jan 1, 2021 20:11
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There is also the not unlikely outcome of some republican senators dying from covid. Except I think those jackasses will all be vaccinated soon if they aren't already.
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Jan 1, 2021 20:21
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