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Endjinneer
Aug 17, 2005
Fallen Rib

ronya posted:

https://app.box.com/s/iddfb4ppwkmtjusir2tc/file/759357623956?sb=/details

the ???% appears to be the point of contention - the committee apparently asked for (and got) the pfizer data, ran its own analysis, and came to the conclusion of 91% first-dose efficacy instead of 52.4% headline figure reported by pfizer

there might be some nationalism/local-connections going into the mix - pfizer-biontech is a german collab, astrazeneca-oxford is a british one. the latter did do the studies all the way to 12 weeks whereas pfizer cut off earlier. the latter is also the study that found that vaccine efficacy increases with a longer delay between the first dose and the booster shot.

the committee is arguing - I assume this is a scientific judgment that it is qualified to make - that it may be assumed as a prior that the three approved vaccines behave similarly in the ways that matter... still there's a whiff of "well you may have beat us to the approval punch but our study was more useful" to it

From the study:

quote:

Published efficacy between dose 1 and 2 of the Pfizer vaccine was 52.4% (95% CI 29.5-68.4%). Based on the timing of cases accrued in the phase 3 study, most the vaccine failures in the period between doses occurred shortly after vaccination, the period before any immune response is expected. Using data for those cases observed between day 15 and 21, efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 was estimated at 89% (95% CI 52-97%), suggesting that short term protection from dose 1 is very high from day 14 after vaccination. Similar findings were seen with the Moderna mRNA vaccine out to 108 days after the first dose (see Annex A).

While 89% is the most likely efficacy of a single dose, 52-97% is quite a broad confidence interval. As far as I remember, anything south of 70-80% won't give herd immunity even if you get the whole group vaccinated. So until they have had dose number two, vulnerable people probably aren't going to be able to change back to "normal" behaviour.
This is a subtle shift away from prioritising the most vulnerable towards minimising spread among everyone else.

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Mr Phillby
Apr 8, 2009

~TRAVIS~
Tbf I think I read Shatner's twitter is run by his racist niece or something.

At least thats what all the Red Letter Media fans were saying after his twitter account started telling them they were dumbasses for trying to get him to come on their youtube podcast or w/e. Obviously the real Shatner would get it and not think the rlm guys are enormous embarasing nerds he wouldn't want to associate with.

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal
Keir Shatner.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Guavanaut posted:

Keir Shatner.

both famous for having the people wearing red getting absolutely destroyed

happyhippy
Feb 21, 2005

Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup
Pillbug
Captain Keir and The Covidyashi Snafu

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Endjinneer posted:

From the study:


While 89% is the most likely efficacy of a single dose, 52-97% is quite a broad confidence interval. As far as I remember, anything south of 70-80% won't give herd immunity even if you get the whole group vaccinated. So until they have had dose number two, vulnerable people probably aren't going to be able to change back to "normal" behaviour.
This is a subtle shift away from prioritising the most vulnerable towards minimising spread among everyone else.

the plan remains to prioritize the Phase 1 group, but the problem with classifying everyone >age 50 in Phase 1 is that the median age of the UK is 45 40*, so: ~30 million people are in the priority vaccination list

that's a lot of people

the plan for 'everyone else' remains zero doses, at least until Phase 1 is done

* ed: whoops. Point stands.

ronya fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Jan 2, 2021

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer
Quick, everyone get diabetes

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Comrade Fakename posted:

Jon Ronson’s book was a long time ago now, I believe he’s now explicitly added “Jews” to the list of people behind all that ails the world, along with the lizard people and so on.
I read the updated ebook version yesterday, with an afterword added around 2014. It's even better than I remember now that my brain has been further turned to mush understanding of the background has been increased by this thread, Behind the Bastards, the Qanon phenomenon, etc.

Afterword is basically "thank gently caress I wrote this in 2000, when you could still depict a Muslim extremist leader (Omar Bakri) as a kind of casual bigot but not especially frightening or competent, rather than them all being superterrorists in mountain fortresses" (at least until Four Lions) and further notes about a minor internet loudmouth called Alex Jones who pops up in several unrelated chapters to fall on his rear end (also Jones hated Icke for "making people think it was about lizard aliens instead of the real satanic NWO globalists" lol).

Icke at the point of the afterword still seemed purely on the lizard bus, but it's a shame that the afterword was 2014 (although I guess that tracks well with the book itself being 2000), because the "decent people don't want hooded robes, Hitler, and the n-word, they want the same politics in a button down shirt" bit from the 'New Klan' section predicted the 'peaceful ethnic cleansing' of the rise of the alt-right in 2015-16 perfectly and I'd have liked to have seen something on that in there.

Julio Cruz posted:

both famous for having the people wearing red getting absolutely destroyed
:golfclap:

Bobby Deluxe
May 9, 2004

crispix posted:

Are they seriously going to gently caress with the vaccine dosing :psyduck:
For poors, yes. Privately insured people will of course get the second dose.


kyojin posted:

The point being this was happening regardless of the new variant because it was loving obvious that it was going to happen to anyone who recognises the existence of germs
I've been criticised for mixing up viruses and bacteria before, but I do remember early on a virologist saying that the good thing about Covid-19 is that is was fairly stable and unlikely to mutate too much, so if we just lock down and do a mass vaccination, it'll be over in a year.

Narrator: The British did not lock down, nor did they successfully deploy the vaccine. The virus mutated.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
Shatner is a colossal Trumpian prick. Even if you hate Trek in all its form, The Captains is still a worthwhile watch because it shows him in all his glory as an oblivious narcissist freak. It's like a Christopher Guest meets David Brent meets Alan Partridge thing, and it's clear everyone he interacts with despises him. Plus he spends the whole doc shilling for Bombardier private jets in the most hilariously transparent way, it's amazing.

E: forgot it also has a scene with Avery Brooks psychologically assaulting Shatner through the medium of jazz piano, which has one of the most powerful energies of anything ever put on film

Failed Imagineer fucked around with this message at 18:31 on Jan 2, 2021

CyberPingu
Sep 15, 2013


If you're not striving to improve, you'll end up going backwards.

Julio Cruz posted:

both famous for having the people wearing red getting absolutely destroyed

And having a co worker that's completely devoid of emotion

Gorn Myson
Aug 8, 2007






https://twitter.com/bojack90s/status/1345391575803822080?s=20

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
This Twitter random seems to have captured the vibe of the Starmer rumours right now

https://twitter.com/IamJustChillin0/status/1345420230873513985?s=19

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Bobby Deluxe posted:

I've been criticised for mixing up viruses and bacteria before
_____\


e:

Failed Imagineer posted:

Avery Brooks psychologically assaulting Shatner through the medium of jazz piano
I am keen to know more.

Necrothatcher
Mar 26, 2005




Sorry Keir, the public mood says that you have to resign at 4pm tomorrow. For the good of the country I believe. chop chop

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Good boy :3:


Guavanaut posted:

I am keen to know more.

Impossible to explain more in words

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Endjinneer posted:

From the study:


While 89% is the most likely efficacy of a single dose, 52-97% is quite a broad confidence interval. As far as I remember, anything south of 70-80% won't give herd immunity even if you get the whole group vaccinated. So until they have had dose number two, vulnerable people probably aren't going to be able to change back to "normal" behaviour.
This is a subtle shift away from prioritising the most vulnerable towards minimising spread among everyone else.

Pretty good thread from an immune biologist:

https://mobile.twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1345086669607890945

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Thanks for that, crystallises my views on this which i was avoiding posting about due to phone posting limitations

HopperUK
Apr 29, 2007

Why would an ambulance be leaving the hospital?

Guavanaut posted:


I am keen to know more.

Avery Brooks is eccentric and powerful and awesome and we only exist because he chooses not to destroy us.

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

These tweets are from october, is it still true? I got some UK orders to process next week and the boss said to treat it as VAT 0% and a sale outside the EU.

EDIT: Oh wait, just saw one tweet is recent, well that's hosed then.

thespaceinvader
Mar 30, 2011

The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!
Honestly, if I was them, I'd have a very difficult time not just... ignoring the VAT.

Like... how the gently caress does the UK propose to enforce it?

crispix
Mar 28, 2015

Grand-Maman m'a raconté
(Les éditions des amitiés franco-québécoises)

Hello, dear
Strongly. Worded. Letters :catstare:

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

I find it difficult to parse the stupid government language but from reading the article I get the impression that if you don't provide documentation about the VAT you're paying then the goods will be stopped at customs, asuming they get checked.

quote:

Compliance arrangements and invoicing

VAT invoicing obligations will apply.

The person liable to account for the VAT will be required to provide the customer with a full VAT invoice at the point of sale - this obligation will fall on either the seller (for sales not facilitated by an OMP) or the OMP, where it is facilitating the sale and so acting as deemed supplier for VAT purposes.

The invoice can be in paper or digital form, but the option to issue a simplified or modified invoice will not apply. Read more information record keeping.

In addition to risk-based checks at the border, HMRC will, as it does now, carry out extensive risk-based compliance activity away from the border using various data sources to identify and tackle non-compliance.

Though how this proposes to ensure that companies actually pay the money to the UK government after billing the customer for it is... not clear. For things like Amazon presumably it would be domestic tax fraud if their accounts didn't match up, though lol @ that being enforced. And for people selling direct or using an online marketplace not registered in the UK... I have no idea?

Presumably if they don't make their records available to HMRC they will no longer be allowed to sell to people in the UK, which obviously is what most of them are doing anyway because it's not worth the hassle.

OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 19:26 on Jan 2, 2021

Bobby Deluxe
May 9, 2004

I mean yes, but it still boils down to an increased risk because the capitalist system is weighting money over human lives.

Her argument is "Well we can't produce more vaccine, so how do we choose the less risky between giving everyone one dose, or giving 50% of people two doses?" Instead of looking at it as "How do we increase vaccine production" by say, temporarily nationalising vaccine production so that instead of paying pfizer billions, we start making it at the cost of ibuprofen?

Ah right, because that's socialism and socialism makes baby Shkreli cry.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer
I don't know if this is a money thing. As far as I know they're getting billions thrown at them. They're surely running at capacity?

Bobby Deluxe
May 9, 2004

Also re: tax - one of the things I make a pittance from is Amazon self pub, and once a year I have to send my british tax ID off to them, otherwise they hold a huge chunk of my royalties to pay tax in the relevant country. There is a tax agreement between the UK and the US for things like that, though maybe for the trade of physical goods the rules are different.

The irony of Amazon checking that I'm paying tax is not lost on me.

Grey Hunter
Oct 17, 2007

Hero of the soviet union.
Accidental destroyer of planets

Guavanaut posted:

_____\


e:

I am keen to know more.

PHAGE!

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

thespaceinvader posted:

Like... how the gently caress does the UK propose to enforce it?
Post Office stickers.

OwlFancier posted:

I find it difficult to parse the stupid government language but from reading the article I get the impression that if you don't provide documentation about the VAT you're paying then the goods will be stopped at customs, asuming they get checked.
Post Office stickers.

WhatEvil
Jun 6, 2004

Can't get no luck.

Shatner is also a TERF.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Bobby Deluxe posted:

I mean yes, but it still boils down to an increased risk because the capitalist system is weighting money over human lives.

Her argument is "Well we can't produce more vaccine, so how do we choose the less risky between giving everyone one dose, or giving 50% of people two doses?" Instead of looking at it as "How do we increase vaccine production" by say, temporarily nationalising vaccine production so that instead of paying pfizer billions, we start making it at the cost of ibuprofen?

Ah right, because that's socialism and socialism makes baby Shkreli cry.

This is not really true. She is being purely pragmatic on how to maximise the benefit from the available drug.

Even if the UK government nationalised Pfizer or whatever the time for tech transfer to make the actual product isn't going to make any impact on drug availability for ~6 months, and if they decided not to play ball then way longer. AZ unusually stared large scale production in March ahead of having any results to have 400m doses available in 2021.

I don't work in CMC and don't know the full details of mRNA vaccine process but with complex medicines it's not enough to know the chemical formula to make the product so you can't really say "thanks now we're making NHS vaccine"

Convex
Aug 19, 2010
Ten-metre hole in Kent lorry park 'not a sinkhole', officials say

everything is fine, no need to be concerned.

Umbra Dubium
Nov 23, 2007

The British Empire was built on cups of tea, and if you think I'm going into battle without one, you're sorely mistaken!



Regarde Aduck posted:

I don't know if this is a money thing. As far as I know they're getting billions thrown at them. They're surely running at capacity?

Well there was that thing about third world countries asking for the copyrights on the vaccines to be waived so they could produce it themselves.

This was vetoed because capitalism, obvs.

But it suggests there is certainly capacity that isn't being utilised.

Edit:

Convex posted:

everything is fine, no need to be concerned.

OK, who had the Darkest Dungeon re-surfacing on their 2021 Bingo card? Own up.

Umbra Dubium fucked around with this message at 20:03 on Jan 2, 2021

crispix
Mar 28, 2015

Grand-Maman m'a raconté
(Les éditions des amitiés franco-québécoises)

Hello, dear

I'll bet they only allow low value goods lorries near that bit

therattle
Jul 24, 2007
Soiled Meat

Umbra Dubium posted:

Well there was that thing about third world countries asking for the copyrights on the vaccines to be waived so they could produce it themselves.

This was vetoed because capitalism, obvs.

But it suggests there is certainly capacity that isn't being utilised.

I’m just picking up on this as it’s the second tine it’s been mentioned: it’s a patent, not copyright. Copyright refers to artistic or creative works; patents to inventions. Copyright is created automatically whereas patents have to be registered.

Mr Phillby
Apr 8, 2009

~TRAVIS~
As a big fan of Deep Space 9 I recommend never seeking out footage of Avery Brooks in real life as it will permanantly ruin your perception of Sisco as an incredibly serious military commander.

It will however make the whole wormhole messiah prophet thing make a lot more sense.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Umbra Dubium posted:

OK, who had the Darkest Dungeon re-surfacing on their 2021 Bingo card? Own up.

In time, you will learn the tragic extent of my failings.

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

Mr Phillby posted:

As a big fan of Deep Space 9 I recommend never seeking out footage of Avery Brooks in real life as it will permanantly ruin your perception of Sisco as an incredibly serious military commander.

It will however make the whole wormhole messiah prophet thing make a lot more sense.

My impression of him was always that in-universe he had a massive flair for the theatrical and merely enjoyed pretending to be incredibly serious for dramatic effect.

Sisko is just Garak with different tastes.

Lobster God
Nov 5, 2008
Twitter's having fun

https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1345428567526662146?s=19

ro5s
Dec 27, 2012

A happy little mouse!

Josef bugman posted:

In time, you will learn the tragic extent of my failings.

:hmmyes: This caption on Boris' "great year for Britain" tweet.

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HopperUK
Apr 29, 2007

Why would an ambulance be leaving the hospital?
Dunno how legal it is but someone's uploaded Wayne June of Darkest Dungeon reading 'At the Mountains of Madness' to youtube and it's fuckin excellent.

It's also not hard to find Jeffrey Combs reading 'Herbert West - Re-Animator' which is perfection.

Both recordings seem to have the horrid little snips of racism edited out.

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