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Ballz posted:For anyone wondering who the hell she’s talking about : 
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Jan 2, 2021 17:29
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“Pick out random-rear end donors who are bad PR and talk about them” seems like a Hail Mary type play to me.
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Jan 2, 2021 19:32
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There was a thing in March where Warnock's soon-to-be-ex-wife called the cops on him and claimed he'd run over her foot, which Hannity dug up a week or two back. (The medical assistants at the scene saw no sign of injury on her foot.)
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Jan 2, 2021 22:31
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Don't get hopeful https://twitter.com/atlas_intel/status/1345802466663796738
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Jan 3, 2021 19:53
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https://twitter.com/CarolLeonnig/status/1345794757696565248?s=20 Trump is meddling in Georgia.
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Jan 3, 2021 20:00
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Pick posted:https://twitter.com/CarolLeonnig/status/1345794757696565248?s=20 Also relevant in that story, he threatens to turn on Loeffler and Purdue if Raffensburger doesn't throw the election.
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Jan 3, 2021 22:42
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Current consensus, even among conservative commentators, is that this is not good for the Rs in the runoff.
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Jan 3, 2021 22:55
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Don't get hopeful That +4.2 percentage is in the wrong place, right?
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Jan 4, 2021 00:08
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Alctel posted:That +4.2 percentage is in the wrong place, right? Yeah. https://twitter.com/atlas_intel/status/1345811365877972993
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Jan 4, 2021 00:26
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Don't get hopeful drat it I told myself I wasn't going to hope t 
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Jan 4, 2021 04:28
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VitalSigns posted:drat it I told myself I wasn't going to hope This made me happier than it should have
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Jan 4, 2021 04:37
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I don’t trust polls anymore. After missing the mark in 2016, and then claiming they learned their lesson and missing 2020 by even more, polling has proven itself to be a useless endeavor. Georgia is a red state, and I will expect it to vote like one until we see more evidence than going blue once, in the middle of a pandemic.
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Jan 4, 2021 04:57
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TyrantWD posted:I don’t trust polls anymore. After missing the mark in 2016, and then claiming they learned their lesson and missing 2020 by even more, polling has proven itself to be a useless endeavor. Aggregated the polls weren't better. Georgia, however, was one of the most accurate states for polling in the November election, including for the senate races that happened. Granted that doesn't necessarily play well with special elections.
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Jan 4, 2021 05:06
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TyrantWD posted:I don’t trust polls anymore. After missing the mark in 2016, and then claiming they learned their lesson and missing 2020 by even more, polling has proven itself to be a useless endeavor. Wasn't 2018 fairly accurate? I think it's probably a Trump thing.
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Jan 4, 2021 06:23
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Sax Mortar posted:Aggregated the polls weren't better. Georgia, however, was one of the most accurate states for polling in the November election, including for the senate races that happened. I don't think anyone could have predicted "Actually Trump will activate large amounts of immigrant voters due to Qanon spreading uncontrolled into ESL groups completely unmoderated" and "Trump will actually GAIN votes from New Agey leaning people because of COVID conspiracies" and "Trump will be voted for the most in areas hit HARDEST by COVID" Our electorate is honestly loving bonkers, and I don't envy anyone trying to gather data from it
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Jan 4, 2021 08:39
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TulliusCicero posted:I don't think anyone could have predicted "Actually Trump will activate large amounts of immigrant voters due to Qanon spreading uncontrolled into ESL groups completely unmoderated" and "Trump will actually GAIN votes from New Agey leaning people because of COVID conspiracies" and "Trump will be voted for the most in areas hit HARDEST by COVID" If you knew my uncle and his wife then none of these predictions would’ve come as such a shock, because they’re in the Venn diagram overlap point for all three of these groups and they are ride-or-die Q trilobite terror fucked around with this message at 08:50 on Jan 4, 2021 |
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Jan 4, 2021 08:47
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TyrantWD posted:I don’t trust polls anymore. After missing the mark in 2016, and then claiming they learned their lesson and missing 2020 by even more, polling has proven itself to be a useless endeavor. You hit the nail on the head. While I donated and hoped for two blue wins I fully expect this to go to both of the repubs. My favorite part of the trump call is: transcript of call posted:Trump: How may people do that? They moved out, and then they said, “Ah, to hell with it, I’ll move back.” You know, it doesn’t sound like a very normal . . . you mean, they moved out, and what, they missed it so much that they wanted to move back in? It’s crazy. Who would want to live in Georgia?! It's Crazy! I love how he cannot fathom anyone who got out wanting to go back.
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Jan 4, 2021 18:14
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TyrantWD posted:I don’t trust polls anymore. After missing the mark in 2016, and then claiming they learned their lesson and missing 2020 by even more, polling has proven itself to be a useless endeavor. Good news: we're still in the middle of a pandemic, much worse now than on November 3rd. Bad news: we're still in the middle of a pandemic. Good news: Republicans have been trailing badly in early and mail voting and may not be as likely to brave the pandemic tomorrow in enough numbers to make up for it.
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Jan 4, 2021 18:18
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Walking the dog, saw a fetus banner behind a plane. "Vote anti abortion." Get out the vote I guess.
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Jan 4, 2021 19:44
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booseek posted:Republicans may not be as likely to brave the pandemic tomorrow in enough numbers to make up for it. I dunno. They seem to show up on voting day. It was a nail biter in Georgia for how many days?
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Jan 4, 2021 19:50
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I think the weather will matter more than the pandemic.
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Jan 4, 2021 19:51
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Coredump posted:I dunno. They seem to show up on voting day. It was a nail biter in Georgia for how many days? I think the question is not whether they show up in general but whether any are deterred because of it. The pandemic is much worse now than early November. There must be some reliable Republicans who just say "gently caress it, I'm staying home" on election day. If you didn't get your votes in already and are banking on election day turnout, you are in a worse position than the opposing party.
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Jan 4, 2021 20:00
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Tomorrow is going to be crazy. Do polls close basically at around 9 pm?
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Jan 4, 2021 21:51
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Raenir Salazar posted:Tomorrow is going to be crazy. Do polls close basically at around 9 pm? 7pm local time.
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Jan 4, 2021 21:55
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Right, although if people are still in line, they have the right to vote.
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Jan 4, 2021 21:57
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booseek posted:I think the question is not whether they show up in general but whether any are deterred because of it. The pandemic is much worse now than early November. There must be some reliable Republicans who just say "gently caress it, I'm staying home" on election day. If you didn't get your votes in already and are banking on election day turnout, you are in a worse position than the opposing party. republicans do not ever believe it is even possible that they will get sick from COVID until they get sick from COVID. This is a political belief at this point and is a big part of why we are even in this mess as well as why the areas hit hardest by COVID had the biggest pro-trump deviation from the polls in November.
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Jan 5, 2021 00:15
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I can't believe the meat grinding death virus would grind my meat
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Jan 5, 2021 00:17
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Coredump posted:I dunno. They seem to show up on voting day. It was a nail biter in Georgia for how many days? The question is whether enough more Republicans will show up on election day to make up for doing worse in early voting - which they certainly could, but I'd rather not be on the side that needs that to happen to win.
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Jan 5, 2021 01:27
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Will we know the winners tomorrow or will we have to wait for the mail-in trickle like what happened with the presidential election?
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Jan 5, 2021 02:24
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TulliusCicero posted:I don't think anyone could have predicted "Actually Trump will activate large amounts of immigrant voters due to Qanon spreading uncontrolled into ESL groups completely unmoderated" and "Trump will actually GAIN votes from New Agey leaning people because of COVID conspiracies" and "Trump will be voted for the most in areas hit HARDEST by COVID" That's a tough one, because the polls are meant to be descriptive of the electorate. If Qanon poo poo was seeping and the polls didn't pick up on it, then that's an indictment of the polls irrespective of how outlandish the source of that contamination is.
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Jan 5, 2021 02:42
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College Rockout posted:Will we know the winners tomorrow or will we have to wait for the mail-in trickle like what happened with the presidential election? My understanding is that somewhere north of 80% of votes should be counted by the wee hours of Wednesday morning, with the rest trickling in over the next few days. By then we should have a decent idea of the breakdown in turnout, geographic location, and partisan balance between early and day-of votes. A real nail-biter is possible, and someone following along in real time looking for a reason to despair will be sure to find plenty of them, but we should know the results late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
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Jan 5, 2021 03:25
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College Rockout posted:Will we know the winners tomorrow or will we have to wait for the mail-in trickle like what happened with the presidential election? Georgia counts mail ballots in advance, so there should be an apparent winner at least by Wednesday unless it's very close (but that doesn't rule out something like Pennsylvania, where Biden had clearly won as of November 4 but the media waited to call the outcome). It could still take a while if the runoff is as close as the presidential election was. The shift after election day should favor Democrats, as it did in November.
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Jan 5, 2021 03:28
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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1346262801078214656
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Jan 5, 2021 04:33
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Jan 5, 2021 04:36
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Quorum posted:My understanding is that somewhere north of 80% of votes should be counted by the wee hours of Wednesday morning, with the rest trickling in over the next few days. By then we should have a decent idea of the breakdown in turnout, geographic location, and partisan balance between early and day-of votes. A real nail-biter is possible, and someone following along in real time looking for a reason to despair will be sure to find plenty of them, but we should know the results late Tuesday or early Wednesday. James Garfield posted:Georgia counts mail ballots in advance, so there should be an apparent winner at least by Wednesday unless it's very close (but that doesn't rule out something like Pennsylvania, where Biden had clearly won as of November 4 but the media waited to call the outcome). It could still take a while if the runoff is as close as the presidential election was. The shift after election day should favor Democrats, as it did in November. Makes sense, thanks for the info!
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Jan 5, 2021 05:33
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https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1346077918045347841
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Jan 5, 2021 05:46
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Farchanter posted:That's a tough one, because the polls are meant to be descriptive of the electorate. If Qanon poo poo was seeping and the polls didn't pick up on it, then that's an indictment of the polls irrespective of how outlandish the source of that contamination is. I work on a social issue that deals with hidden populations, and making prevalence estimates is hard as hell. Political polling has had it easy for ages. Welcome to the world of surveying people who you can’t find easily, who don’t want to respond, and who can’t/don’t respond accurately. And those who you can find and who will respond are not representative. There are sophisticated methods that work (e.g. RDS, NSUM), but they are slow, expensive, not easily explained, and probably still not as precise and accurate as political poll consumers demand.
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Jan 5, 2021 05:46
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Republicans: "Haha, I'm in danger."
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Jan 5, 2021 06:06
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I'm getting nice and settled in this thread because today is hell day.
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Jan 5, 2021 11:18
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I swear to God if the Dems win in Georgia today and they don't immediately start moving to castrate the GOP's bullshit I'm going to post so many angry Tweets about it. 
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Jan 5, 2021 13:29
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