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I don’t think anyone *should* trade a 2nd for Darnold but NFL coaches and front office people are often arrogant as gently caress and have a very inflated view about what their own organizations, systems, etc. can do to fix failed prospects. So with that in mind I would not be surprised at all if someone overpaid for Darnold.
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Jan 4, 2021 22:43
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Atlanta: Ryan's noodle arm is about cooked. He takes some absolutely astonishing sacks, too. Matt Schaub (!) is his backup. The Falcons have needs everywhere except the defensive line and tight end. Somehow, they'll pick a dud.
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Jan 4, 2021 22:48
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I think Darnold has less value than he would've several years ago (that he was a rookie a few years ago completely aside) since it seems like there's a lot more at-minimum-competent QBs nowadays than there were pre-Mahomes when it seemed like the league would go half a decade without good QBs. There's only like four teams right now that direly need a QB (Panthers, Broncos, Jets, Jaguars), and about six or so that are about ready to start looking for replacements in the near future (Falcons, Bears, Colts, Patriots, Saints, Steelers, 49ers). Every other team is more or less settled for the next two seasons. I don't think Darnold is an upgrade for any of these teams from the latter group (though Payton might take him on as a reclamation project).
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Jan 4, 2021 23:05
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Darnold is worth a 4th at most. Don't care how desperate or arrogant an FO or coach are they're not all Bill O'Brian. I'd rather take a swing at Jones or Trask this year than try to unfuck what Gase did to him. Kid is pretty much a rookie talent still but with brain worms. Personally I'm not willing to down play the talent around him either. Talent Vampire Adam Gase was the coach. Being stuck with him from the jump may have ended Darnold though.
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Jan 4, 2021 23:05
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RC and Moon Pie posted:Atlanta: Ryan's noodle arm is about cooked. He takes some absolutely astonishing sacks, too. Matt Schaub (!) is his backup. Schaub is retiring and Ryan is absolutely cooked. Atlanta has to be in play for a QB this year.
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Jan 4, 2021 23:07
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If the Jets draft a QB, he's getting cut outright. Why trade anything for him?
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Jan 4, 2021 23:19
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Eifert Posting posted:Imo the Jags, Jets, falcons and dolphins should all draft QBs. They should all draft the same QB and each pay 1/4 of his salary. That way he's less expensive if he turns out to be good.
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Jan 4, 2021 23:20
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Jim runs the Senior Bowl. So do the Bengals get first crack since they’re the lowest pick not changing coaches? https://twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1346251216897114115
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Jan 5, 2021 01:46
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So it's bengals and iggles? Guess Howie and Doug get a solid shot at saving their jobs.
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Jan 5, 2021 01:51
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Amy Pole Her posted:Schaub is retiring and Ryan is absolutely cooked. Atlanta has to be in play for a QB this year. Matt Ryan is still better than half the starters in the NFL.
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Jan 5, 2021 02:33
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Ches Neckbeard posted:So it's bengals and iggles? https://mobile.twitter.com/pauldehnerjr/status/1346150593933533184
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Jan 5, 2021 02:55
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So next up would be the Panthers at pick 8 lol Goddamn
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Jan 5, 2021 03:00
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wandler20 posted:Matt Ryan is still better than half the starters in the NFL. Yeah hes still fine for at least another year or two. The rest of their roster though... outside of receiver is a dire team.
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Jan 5, 2021 04:02
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Diva Cupcake posted:Jim runs the Senior Bowl. So do the Bengals get first crack since they’re the lowest pick not changing coaches? Aw bullshit!
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Jan 5, 2021 04:06
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D-LINK posted:If the Jets draft a QB, he's getting cut outright. Why trade anything for him? He’s under contract for a few more years and I think his dead cap hit would be quite a bit, they’re probably not cutting him
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Jan 5, 2021 04:27
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wyoak posted:He’s under contract for a few more years and I think his dead cap hit would be quite a bit, they’re probably not cutting him He has 1 year left and roughly 9.5 cap hit if they cut him.
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Jan 5, 2021 05:17
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Hand Row posted:He has 1 year left and roughly 9.5 cap hit if they cut him. Geez 2022 really is just a year away huh Still, doesn’t make a ton of sense to cut him outright
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Jan 5, 2021 07:41
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wyoak posted:Geez 2022 really is just a year away huh Plus, you're half a chance of getting some kind of draft pick for him if some established coach thinks they can rescue his career.
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Jan 5, 2021 10:28
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Assuming Darnold doesn't become a pissant in the locker room (and based on his statements on Gase, guy is clearly a company man), he's a great backup. A second-round pick seems like a ridiculous amount to pay for him, but teams have done nuttier things. It's within the realm of plausibility even if I don't think it's particularly likely.
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Jan 5, 2021 16:44
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Honestly if I'm GM of... 3 teams... that come to mind, Id absolutely shoot 3rd rounder for Darnold. Im still in the past but dude had a few games, one against Miami, where he just threw dime pieces all over. He had a few lovely decisions but the potential was clear as day.
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Jan 5, 2021 16:48
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SKULL.GIF posted:I think Darnold has less value than he would've several years ago (that he was a rookie a few years ago completely aside) since it seems like there's a lot more at-minimum-competent QBs nowadays than there were pre-Mahomes when it seemed like the league would go half a decade without good QBs. Unless you know something I don't know about Stidham the Pats are absolutely in that first group of teams that direly need a QB. D-LINK posted:If the Jets draft a QB, he's getting cut outright. Why trade anything for him? I think if the Jets draft a QB they *have* to move on from Darnold. You can't have him hanging around on the sideline in 2021 while the rookie is taking his lumps. The organization needs a clean break from the Darnold/Gase era. But I don't think that means that can't get *anything* for him. The Cardinals were able to trade away Rosen for a 2nd when the league knew they didn't want him in the building. I think it's highly unlikely the Jets would get that much value because Rosen was still an unknown commodity with upside whereas Darnold has played like the worst quarterback in the league for three years. I would wager a 4th, maybe a 3rd if some team is really dumb. EDIT: The Titans traded a 4th for Tannehill, I think that was a very similar situation and would be more than appropriate compensation for 2020 Sam Darnold who has showed even less. Impossibly Perfect Sphere fucked around with this message at 18:48 on Jan 5, 2021 |
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Jan 5, 2021 18:45
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Darnold still has pretty solid physical traits and has actually improved his touch at points. Most of his problems can be summarized as pocket/footwork issues or an inability to work in tandem with the skill players around him. Really though, there's two ways to get him usable quickly if you want to gamble on him--fix the line enough that he has time to work with subpar weapons or improve the receivers enough that the ball can come out faster. What kills young QBs with talent who aren't immediately in the Paxton Lynch mold of being morons with big arms or without an immediate "ah, that guy is elite at doing x at least" is often that there's essentially no floor for them. If you look at guys that have developed over the last 3-4 years, the surroundings can be fairly instructive: - Burrow (Has Boyd/Green/Higgins and Mixon/Bernard to make up for mediocre coaching and a bad line) - Herbert (Has Allen/Williams as threats to stretch the D) - Murray (Has Hopkins/Kirk/Fitzgerald though the line isn't great) - Allen (Has Diggs/Brown/Beasley) - Jackson (Runs a fairly unique offense built around his run/vertical stretch, doesn't neatly fit this argument) - Mahomes (Not listing all these dudes) - Watson (Has had solid receivers like Cooks or Hopkins over the years, making up for the fact that you too could start on the Oline for the Texans some weeks) Now the questionable to bad guys: - Mayfield (might actually be good? Elite play action guy with weird gunslinger traits that don't fit his body; definitely benefitted from OL overhaul this year) - Tua (could still be good but needs that scheme to open up and get a true WR2 behind Parker--shows the exact gunslinger problems people expected as well as the fragility) - Jones (lol imagine Sterling Shepherd being the only guy you can safely throw to and Barkley being hurt all the time) - Haskins (has McLaurin who's fantastic but no real WR2 and a mediocre line, compounded with him just being an off-field/chalkboard mess right now) - Rosen (probably is screwed for life off of the team bouncing alone--got killed behind bad protection for years in college and NFL, had real weapons for like 1/8 of that time between the two) - Trubisky (monstrous overdraft--probably the worst actual quarterback of any of these dudes) When I evaluate these guys, I try to take into account that good skill/line play can be a buffer or anchor that allows some guys to outperform typical rookie play in the NFL or drag them down, particularly the all-rounders like a Tua/Rosen who do a lot of things well in college but nothing utterly insane. QBs can absolutely elevate teams if they're monstrously good at certain things (Jackson/Murray scramble threat; Herbert in the vertical game; Allen/Mahomes pure arm stretch combined with scramble threat; /Burrow/Watson's accuracy ), but it's very hard to do that if you're drafted as a "complete" QB who hasn't learned to do any one thing at an NFL level to that point. That's the frustration with Darnold and a lot of the questionable to bad guys on the list. Other than Baker's PA ability, none of the guys on the list have one quality you would describe as elite coming out of college other than like having a rocket arm which isn't enough (do not @ me about Tua's accuracy, dude was throwing to 4 first rounders). A good quarterback, in the beginning, is largely a guy developing an offensive mindset with a coach and surrounding cast to maximize strengths and minimize weaknesses. Early Brady wasn't running that short-field air raid, the Moss vertical game, or the TE/PA game that he late morphed into--he was doing the vanilla stuff that came easy. Now? Coaches are probably even more accommodating, but they're still ultimately only working with the parts they have, particularly since new QB usually means new coach/bad roster. So, it's the gestalt effect in reverse--you need a few things all to work in tandem for guys to work, and any one thing (bad supporting cast, no trait to build on, unaccommodating caoch) can completely destroy that ability. If we're evaluating Sam? Darnold's footwork is still pretty sloppy under pressure which creates most of his worst passes--particularly at the sideline/numbers since he's often already stretching to get there and doesn't have the type of instant velocity to shoot it there with bad footwork. As such, he's like Baker in pressure games, where he's at his best on boots and rollouts or moving out of the pocket since he tends to get a better angle that doesn't need him to step in as much. You could fix this, but you're going to be in a position in another year or two where he potentially goes David Carr on you if you don't shore up his weapons/line enough to keep him in the pocket. Becton is promising, but that line is a ways from giving him time. Similarly, Crowder is not a WR1, neither is Robby Anderson. If you put Hopkins, Allen, Diggs, or Cooks on that team, Darnold probably looks more like a guy who has talent but can't stay upright long enough to be consistent as opposed to a guy who's giving you nothing. He's probably closer to the Tua/Jones line for mediocrity as opposed to true busts in Haskins/Rosen/Trubisky, but do you really want to hold onto a guy who is in that category of not doing anything particularly well 4 years in? I wouldn't, but I also think people underestimate what he could be if he gets traded and sits somewhere for a year or two to get his bearings. For this draft, I probably move on just off of the depth and opportunity, but if the new coach likes him enough to gamble on him? Trade back and let a QB hungry team overpay so you can rebuild your depth. He's a reclamation product, but Gabbert is still kicking around somewhere for God's sake. You think Denver wouldn't gamble on him competing next to Lock? There's a guy not being a savior and a guy who's bad. This is guaranteed the former and only potentially the latter.
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Jan 5, 2021 18:48
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The Tannehill situation makes me think that Adam Gase is such a dumb piece of poo poo that Darnold can’t even properly be evaluated at this point.
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Jan 5, 2021 18:55
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Rosen should have never busted I blame the lovely rear end Cardinals even though from all the analysis I've seen it's pretty much Rosen's fault he busted but still Guy should have been an elite QB by now. I'm mad at the loss.
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Jan 5, 2021 18:55
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Kyler Murray seems to be thriving but I don’t remember if their coaching staff changed and didn’t give Rosen a chance.
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Jan 5, 2021 19:11
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Gatts posted:Kyler Murray seems to be thriving but I don’t remember if their coaching staff changed and didn’t give Rosen a chance. yeah, Kliff Kingsbury came and they immediately drafted Murray. Rosen was coached by Steve Wilks
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Jan 5, 2021 19:15
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In a league where Mike loving Glennon can still get jobs because he "looks the part," Darnold shouldn't have any problems landing back on his feet
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Jan 5, 2021 19:20
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I'd be cool with the Bucs giving up like a 4th for Darnold to sit behind Brady for a couple years. I think that's what the plan was with Rosen but the 49ers snatched him up.
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Jan 5, 2021 19:56
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So who has the most reliable hands in this draft? The Ravens desperately need a chain mover to help keep their offense on schedule. Add to that Lamar has some accuracy issues but can buy near ten seconds on some plays I'm thinking someone who struggles to get consistently open but catches everything throw their way would flourish in Baltimore. TE or WR though they'd need to be able to block either way. Sage Surrat and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the two guys that come to mind at WR. Amon-Ra would be a lot more expensive since he doesn't really have separation issues. Sadly both have the occasional concentration drop from what I've seen. I don't know anything about the TE class past Pitts so hopefully someone in their fits the bill.
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Jan 5, 2021 20:02
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wandler20 posted:I'd be cool with the Bucs giving up like a 4th for Darnold to sit behind Brady for a couple years. I think that's what the plan was with Rosen but the 49ers snatched him up. A couple of years how much longer do you think Brady is gonna play?!
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Jan 5, 2021 20:14
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He's said until he's 45. Two more years to go.
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Jan 5, 2021 20:20
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sportsgenius86 posted:The Tannehill situation makes me think that Adam Gase is such a dumb piece of poo poo that Darnold can’t even properly be evaluated at this point. https://twitter.com/JCaporoso/status/1346458783258730498 I think he'll fetch a 3rd. Someone will pay for insurance and a flier like the Broncos or Steelers. The Saints did it with Teddy and no one gave them poo poo for it.
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Jan 5, 2021 20:33
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Kirk Cousins is really good, saying Sam Darnold has that for a ceiling dismissively is pretty dumb
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Jan 5, 2021 20:43
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E: wrong thread
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Jan 5, 2021 20:46
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Doltos posted:Rosen should have never busted I blame the lovely rear end Cardinals even though from all the analysis I've seen it's pretty much Rosen's fault he busted but still The fact that Josh Rosen is bad and Josh Allen is good defies everything we know about college scouting Every (amateur) scout should just retire and starting is done by spinning a big wheel
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Jan 5, 2021 21:14
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Unless you know something I don't know about Stidham the Pats are absolutely in that first group of teams that direly need a QB. I thought Cam was on a longer contract, but I guess not!
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Jan 5, 2021 21:26
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:The fact that Josh Rosen is bad and Josh Allen is good defies everything we know about college scouting the difference is attitude, just like my hs coach taught me
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Jan 5, 2021 23:31
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SKULL.GIF posted:I thought Cam was on a longer contract, but I guess not! It doesn't matter how long Cam's contract is lol he's bad and they need a qb
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Jan 5, 2021 23:37
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Nodoze posted:Kirk Cousins is really good, saying Sam Darnold has that for a ceiling dismissively is pretty dumb
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Jan 5, 2021 23:43
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wyoak posted:“Really good” is stretching it, but if Darnold can rebound to become a league average type guy good for him Cousins is definitely better than league average
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Jan 6, 2021 00:52
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