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Rea posted:You're not missing anything, the pattern so far is GOP rural areas underperforming, and Dem rural areas overperforming. We still have yet to get to the urban areas, though, and it's entirely possible (however unlikely) that something on the level of the Miami-Dade catastrophe happens. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346638651099389953?s=20
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Jan 6, 2021 03:05
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Rea posted:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346637547917762563 Incredible GOTV effort there, kudos to the local Dem organization (and Stacey Abrams of course)
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Jan 6, 2021 03:05
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I can't see Atlanta going Red. At all. Not in 2020. If the trend continues, it's over.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:05
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Gabriel S. posted:I can't see Atlanta going Red. At all. Not in 2020. Have your eyes collected an adequate amount of information?
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Jan 6, 2021 03:07
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If these needle projections hold, both races will be outside of recount territory (0.5%). Still a long way to go but that would be an amazing way to end the night.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:07
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There were some bonkers numbers there on the Fox News page for a while you had Ossoff and Perdue at 50%-50% with Warnock like 30,000 votes ahead of Loeffler. Now its stabilized with Ossoff's lead growing again, 14,000 votes with Warnock again at 30,000 lead when you had like just moments ago a 4k difference on either side, this is crazy.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:10
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https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1346639202725879811 Someone stop me, I'm feeling hope.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:11
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1346639757892345857?s=20
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Jan 6, 2021 03:12
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The needle always stead fast. It was us, that shook.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:15
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cr0y posted:The needle always stead fast. It was us, that shook. NYT outright admitted in 2016 it only shakes because it wants to shake The Needle is like the Sarge in a war movie who sees our nervousness and says "Hey man I'm scared too, but we must be steadfast"
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Jan 6, 2021 03:18
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cr0y posted:Any idea of when we might start seeing signs of that variable one way or another? Is that mail in vs day of votes? I'd trust the data nerds being posted in this thread more than me, notorious forums poster Derpies, but it seems like if turnout continues to be low in Red areas and Higher in blue counties that actually are populated the data nerds will start mentioning it and we will see that and the all holy needle will reflect it.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:18
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346642289096093696 Another instance of Warnock and Ossoff noticeably improving on Biden's margin.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:19
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Looks like it's all going to come down to the suburbs, if Biden's margin there will hold for Ossoff/Warnock.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:21
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SoggyBobcat posted:Looks like it's all going to come down to the suburbs, if Biden's margin there will hold for Ossoff/Warnock. spoiler: it will
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Jan 6, 2021 03:21
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A call: https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1346640228396752904
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Jan 6, 2021 03:21
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It’s looking like the story will be that the black vote came through and rural whites stayed home. The GOP only turns this around if a lot of suburban whites got off their asses and voted for Trump, which so far we haven’t seen evidence of.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:23
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Youth Decay posted:Incredible GOTV effort there, kudos to the local Dem organization (and Stacey Abrams of course) Worth mentioning that Stacey is the face of a lot of people doing a lot of good work.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:23
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Rea posted:Wow, those improvements on Biden's margin. The hell did that come from? I feel that Georgia going blue has motivated a not-insignificant portion of the populace to go "Wait, I don't live in a red state? My vote can actually matter?"
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Jan 6, 2021 03:25
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69% reporting in, this is... n.. notable...
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Jan 6, 2021 03:26
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Nate's Warnock needle changed from Tilting to Leaning. Could this be happening? Wasserman has said zero bad news so far for dems. Like not even a "this is a potential trouble spot" yet.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:27
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dwarf74 posted:Nate's Warnock needle changed from Tilting to Leaning. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346644503772463106?s=20
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Jan 6, 2021 03:28
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letthereberock posted:PA has a similar thing where the city of Chester is not in Chester county. It originally was, but in the 19th century the count was split and the half with Chester became Delaware county. You’d think when you split a county the half with the city it’s named after would be the one that keeps the name but what the gently caress do I know. Sorta how in New York, Ontario County isn't even on the lake.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:33
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I like how the needle starts to contract as the possibilities narrow.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:36
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1346646937026629632?s=20
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Jan 6, 2021 03:39
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I like the new part that explains why the needles update based on expectations. Also apparently they learn over the course of the night which is fun.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:40
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346647684900417536?s=20
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Jan 6, 2021 03:40
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The words have been said. It is done. There's 49.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:40
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OH poo poo LET'S FUCKIN GOOOOO!!!! PULL IT OUT OSSOF!!!
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Jan 6, 2021 03:41
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Dems win the senate?
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Jan 6, 2021 03:42
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346647684900417536 Edit: Damnit
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Jan 6, 2021 03:42
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Uglycat posted:Dems win the senate? Ossof is still a tossup.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:42
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I will take "hard to see a path for Rs" as my seen enough, time for video games. See you on the other side goons
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Jan 6, 2021 03:42
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Oh gently caress, is it seriously happening?
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Jan 6, 2021 03:42
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Handsome Ralph posted:Oh gently caress, is it seriously happening? Ossof is still a tossup, Wasserman is confident on Warnock.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:43
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I hope ossoff wins too but I’m happy warlock did better than he did as he’s clearly the better candidate.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:44
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Pick posted:Ossof is still a tossup, Wasserman is confident on Warnock. Ossof is definitely not a tossup. It would take a very strong trend reversal at this point for Perdue to win. It's still possible, sure, but it's not even close to 50/50 at this point. edit: the needle is giving Ossof a 70% chance to win right now.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:44
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evilweasel posted:I hope ossoff wins too but I’m happy warlock did better than he did as he’s clearly the better candidate. Senator Warlock is a cool rear end nickname, and would have been a great username
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Jan 6, 2021 03:44
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Pick posted:Ossof is still a tossup, Wasserman is confident on Warnock. How different is the margin between the two pairs tho? Surely Ossof is close.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:44
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smoobles posted:How different is the margin between the two pairs tho? Surely Ossof is close. Ossof is still doing well we just don't have as much info.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:45
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evilweasel posted:I hope ossoff wins too but I’m happy warlock did better than he did as he’s clearly the better candidate.
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Jan 6, 2021 03:46
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