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Posting on the nazi page EDIT: gently caress
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Jan 8, 2021 15:07
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freebooter posted:Yeah, like, I'm definitely not trying to rub anything in anyone's face but... all your governments hosed up. And if the shoe was on the other foot I'd be rightly furious at my own government. And it's bizarre to me that so many people will instinctively start making excuses for their governments and try to explain away Australia's (or New Zealand's, or Taiwan's, or Vietnam's) success. What kicked off this argument wasn't that, it was someone looking at a spreadsheet and drawing a conclusion that might very well make sense in a lot of places in the world, but shorn of the context of what the pandemic is like here i.e. we basically do not have a COVID problem and if we're about to have a COVID problem it sure as hell isn't going to come from a clerical error. There's a sort of blindness in America and Europe to the fact that actually, yeah, you can beat the virus and you don't have to be dictatorial weld-the-doors-closed China to do it. The original post was just "Uhoh, this number looks suspiciously bug like." And then it was pointed out that this was just a coincidence and not an out of memory issue. The question was a normal and healthy response from someone who likely needs to spot and investigate that stuff so it doesn't cause any harm, not an accusation that your country was a bunch of idiots who were going to get bugfucked by covid because they can't computer gud or whatever you've taken it as. In short: Chill, man. It's all cool here. e:gently caress I'm on the nazi page!
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Jan 8, 2021 15:08
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do we have to call him dr hitler now or something? when did it change to 1448? I have to update my spreadsheet
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Jan 8, 2021 15:23
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freebooter posted:Yeah, like, I'm definitely not trying to rub anything in anyone's face but... all your governments hosed up. And if the shoe was on the other foot I'd be rightly furious at my own government. And it's bizarre to me that so many people will instinctively start making excuses for their governments and try to explain away Australia's (or New Zealand's, or Taiwan's, or Vietnam's) success. What kicked off this argument wasn't that, it was someone looking at a spreadsheet and drawing a conclusion that might very well make sense in a lot of places in the world, but shorn of the context of what the pandemic is like here i.e. we basically do not have a COVID problem and if we're about to have a COVID problem it sure as hell isn't going to come from a clerical error. There's a sort of blindness in America and Europe to the fact that actually, yeah, you can beat the virus and you don't have to be dictatorial weld-the-doors-closed China to do it. Wow. That’s so impressive. You island anglos have such big brains. You should rename your country to miracle island
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Jan 8, 2021 15:43
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Everything is open and the sun is shining and covid is gone and I have a new lease on life! I’ll never take it for granted again! Wait...what’s this? A forum post suggesting Australians might be capable of a math error? Time for a wee melty
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Jan 8, 2021 15:48
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Got my appointment for my Vaccine on Monday. Hope I make it until then without getting sick.
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Jan 8, 2021 15:49
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freebooter posted:loving up a testing regime because you've hosed up the Excel spreadsheet is something that happens in a failed state like Britain where 1 in every 50 people had COVID over Christmas and test/trace/isolate systems are completely overwhelmed, not a jurisdiction that actually has its poo poo together It's a good thing you're not in charge of it because getting pissed at people making educated checks on your processes definitely isn't how you maintain such rigorous standards
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Jan 8, 2021 16:25
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I don't have any interest in playing apologist for countries that hosed up handling coronavirus, but it takes some seriously blind faith to suggest that places like Australia handled it so much better with their giant brains rather than look at the commonalities between countries that managed to get things under control. Yes, acting quickly and efficient protocols were paramount, but there are gigantic advantages. Every single country that is held up as a poster child at handling corona best (that is not China) just happens to be somewhere primarily monocultural with not particularly porous or active borders. Any large EU country not only handles an order of magnitude more international arrivals, but its domestic population travels abroad at a rate several times more than populations in any comparable nation that succeeded at containing COVID. That doesn't even count the fact that there is completely borderless travel between other EU nations which goes unrecorded. Yes, border controls happened, but not in time to prevent the virus becoming endemic pretty much everywhere. Test & Trace is most useful at the first instance, but things spiral rapidly out of control in terms of complexity and it becomes near futile. Geography and context is easily one of the most relevant factors in coronavirus. I think you're kidding yourself if you think that if the government of Australia were transplanted somewhere else it would have seen the same outcomes. It only takes one underperforming neighbouring nation to throw a massive spanner in the works. If the virus had spread unchecked in China, chances are very high that Vietnam would have gone down along with it, and probably every other APAC nation would have fared far worse. That's just how viruses work, even with all the goodwill and infrastructure in the world.
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Jan 8, 2021 16:33
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I don't think it's a coincidence that the countries that were best able to get it under control were the countries that could meaningfully shut down travel and enforce quarantines on international arrivals. Several nations in Europe appeared to get their first wave under control, only to have things flare up again due to imported cases. But the good fortune of having an enormous moat would have been wasted if Australia hadn't been able to get internal spread under control, and they definitely deserve credit for actually doing that (even when the Murdoch media was attacking the government and trying to get them to open things back up before it was controlled).
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Jan 8, 2021 16:52
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Holy hell, America is breaking all the records today See?!?; USA is number one again! Land of the free!
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Jan 8, 2021 17:28
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wesleywillis posted:See?!?; USA is number one again! That wasn't even their final score for that day, LOL Of course the following day they obliterated that with all-new high scores as well:  They've already recovered from the post-Christmas slump and have started climbing up up UP again and their rolling 7 day averages are the highest they've ever been:   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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Jan 8, 2021 17:44
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Kind of a good thing that for some reason Covid seems to have lost a lot of its lethality over the summer. Imagine if the infection/death ratio was stil the same today :x
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Jan 8, 2021 18:19
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peak debt posted:Kind of a good thing that for some reason Covid seems to have lost a lot of its lethality over the summer. Imagine if the infection/death ratio was stil the same today :x There's no particular evidence for that. We've got better at treating it, sure, but the vast majority of the supposed lower case fatality rate is down to the fact that testing regimes are much better now so we're catching more cases - the actual chance of dying once infected hasn't fallen by much at all.
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Jan 8, 2021 18:28
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peak debt posted:Kind of a good thing that for some reason Covid seems to have lost a lot of its lethality over the summer. Imagine if the infection/death ratio was stil the same today :x I think it's a mix of hospitals ironing out the kinks in their treatment plans combined with better/wider testing catching a higher percentage of infections. The lack of testing at the start made the lethality look a lot bigger than it was, the case fatality rate would have been way higher than the infection fatality rate. CFR is no doubt still lower than it should be though, we probably won't get an accurate idea of the actual IFR until years down the road
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Jan 8, 2021 18:30
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peak debt posted:Kind of a good thing that for some reason Covid seems to have lost a lot of its lethality over the summer. Imagine if the infection/death ratio was stil the same today :x Excess deaths and a significant percentage of post-covid cardiovascular injury related deaths will bring the lethality up quite a bit. In wave 1 in NY healthcare was stretched hard and a loving enormous number of people in LTCH got covid and died. In this wave once B117 gets ahold of the population its going to mean increasingly high death rates as care suffers or becomes unavailable. I think the big surprise will be all the longer term health issues. The goon with a mild case having 4 of his upper front teeth just fall out over a number of days. The goon rad tech finding micro-stokes in a covid patient's brain. The goon lady with cheese ling covid that had to have part of it removed and never returned to post again. All those anecdotal reports are backed by papers and ongoing research of covid causing vascular damage effecting teeth, lungs, hearts, brains. The human cost of this is incredible .. and number go UP Blitter fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Jan 8, 2021 |
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Jan 8, 2021 19:20
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Blitter posted:It's hard to appreciate just how much worse more contagious is than more deadly - but! That assumes that you aren't bounded by maximum population size, though. If response is so hosed that everyone keeps getting it anyway then deadlier is worse
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Jan 8, 2021 20:40
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Tunicate posted:That assumes that you aren't bounded by maximum population size, though. If response is so hosed that everyone keeps getting it anyway then deadlier is worse We basically are not in the short term and it is not necessarily long term immunity
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Jan 8, 2021 21:00
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Nam Taf posted:How do you ask entire legions of staff who work for private hotel chains to give up their lives for well over a year? You're not just asking them to quarantine for two weeks, you're asking them to essentially FIFO into a single building for a period of time, and then lock themselves in a room for 2 weeks, before being allowed back into society. You would have to rotate in/out while quarantining in between. I think daily tests just give you slightly more warning you've hosed up - by the time you've got the virus reproducing and you can test positive its too damned late to react. You've got to be proactive. freebooter posted:You offer them 10k a month with free board and food. I'd take that offer. And it would still be vastly cheaper than the broader costs of Victoria's four-month lockdown. I'm familiar with work schedules for folks who work on the North Slope in Alaska, and it's commonly a few weeks on site, a few weeks off, rather than a typical M-F 5/2 schedule. You pay some young unattached person gobs of money to be a janitor or something for weeks at a time and it works. I feel like a system could be worked out to cycle folks in and out providing services and quarantining afterwards, and some amount of money will convince folks to do it - if there was political will to actually keep Australia virus free. I just can't understand what appears to be halfassing quarantine after so much sacrifice.
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Jan 8, 2021 21:15
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Our shipment came in super late evening so I was fortunate to get my second pfizer dose yesterday at lunch. Last time I had a sore shoulder and was a little tired the following morning but nothing major. This thing has loving rocked me this time, I legit haven't left bed and everything aches and is stiff along with a massive headache.
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Jan 8, 2021 21:16
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Fenarisk posted:Our shipment came in super late evening so I was fortunate to get my second pfizer dose yesterday at lunch. Last time I had a sore shoulder and was a little tired the following morning but nothing major. Very sorry to hear the second dose is hitting you hard. I hope it passes quickly. Very much appreciate you sharing this with the thread though, as many of us won't be getting vaccines for months (I assume).
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Jan 8, 2021 21:23
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InAndOutBrennan posted:Probably should but breathing feels fine and I've done some work and I don't feel much more stupid than usual. But as soon as I'm allowed to go out I will get one for next time/old age. From what I've heard, breathing feels fine until you fall over from lack of oxygen, so that's not a good test (please feel free to correct me, everyone, but this is what leads to people falling while walking their dogs or whatever) and is why you need to get an oximeter Fenarisk posted:Our shipment came in super late evening so I was fortunate to get my second pfizer dose yesterday at lunch. Last time I had a sore shoulder and was a little tired the following morning but nothing major. I read this in the inital vaccine reports, that the second dose can cause you to feel like poo poo for a day, and I was wondering when the reports of that would come back 'the vaccine made me feel like poo poo', and this is the first one I've read! I know you don't mean anything bad by this, it's your actual experience. I just wonder how long it'll take for the chud nurses to start talking about this and their tweets getting retweeted a million times, or whatever.
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Jan 8, 2021 21:25
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put the vaccine in my balls
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Jan 8, 2021 21:28
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Full Metal Jackass posted:put the vaccine in my balls Give it time, it ends up in the balls.
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Jan 8, 2021 21:35
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greazeball posted:I agree completely. So many people are using the "well at least we're not as bad as [X]" or "[X] closed their schools and it didn't really help that much so we shouldn't bother" that we need regular reminders that lockdowns work, when communicated well and backed up by financial support and law enforcement. I'm really looking forward to Australia's economic figures over the next two years because I think they'll show the hit to the public debt is much less damaging than some people have been predicting and their 2021 GDP growth should blow everyone else out of the water. I'm in the Uk and it's totally a coping mechanism. We're in a poo poo situation here and reflecting on the fact that things could and should have been handled better makes people feel even worse about everything: much more comforting to heave a weary sigh and opine that the government's trying to do the best it can and hey, everyone makes mistakes, you know. With the people who actually voted for the government, they'll usually tack on: "...and just imagine how much worse it would have been if that Jeremy Corbyn was in charge!" as an afterthought. I'm having to grit my teeth a lot in work Zoom meetings.
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Jan 8, 2021 21:39
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Why are people calling the new strain B117 or whatever? It's the UK Strain, never let those fuckers forget they let it run wild through the population giving it ample chances to mutate.
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Jan 8, 2021 23:55
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gay picnic defence posted:Why are people calling the new strain B117 or whatever? It's the UK Strain, never let those fuckers forget they let it run wild through the population giving it ample chances to mutate. Can you, like, maybe not do this when a thousand people are dying every day here at the moment?
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Jan 8, 2021 23:59
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gay picnic defence posted:Why are people calling the new strain B117 or whatever? It's the UK Strain, never let those fuckers forget they let it run wild through the population giving it ample chances to mutate. At least the UK is actually testing for new strains. Can't have a strain named after your country if you don't test for them.
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Jan 9, 2021 00:12
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gay picnic defence posted:Why are people calling the new strain B117 or whatever? It's the UK Strain, never let those fuckers forget they let it run wild through the population giving it ample chances to mutate. Our best hypothesis right now is that this strain probably arose in a single individual that had a long-term infection or was treated with antibodies in such a way as to create selective pressure. The degree of mutation (~20 amino acids) is too different from the other known strains for it to have developed cumulatively through person-to-person spread over time. Here's a recent report on it (not yet peer-reviewed): https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/ There Bias Two fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Jan 9, 2021 |
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Jan 9, 2021 00:20
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:I think it's a mix of hospitals ironing out the kinks in their treatment plans combined with better/wider testing catching a higher percentage of infections. The lack of testing at the start made the lethality look a lot bigger than it was, the case fatality rate would have been way higher than the infection fatality rate. CFR is no doubt still lower than it should be though, we probably won't get an accurate idea of the actual IFR until years down the road It could also be the most vulnerable populations already caught it and died, e.g. nursing home residents
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Jan 9, 2021 03:14
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Jabor posted:I don't think it's a coincidence that the countries that were best able to get it under control were the countries that could meaningfully shut down travel and enforce quarantines on international arrivals. Every country is capable of doing this. Finding it difficult to imagine something happening is not the same as it being impossible.
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Jan 9, 2021 03:49
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Scaramouche posted:It could also be the most vulnerable populations already caught it and died, e.g. nursing home residents There's over 22 million people aged 75 and over in the US, it's barely touched the most vulnerable populations so far.
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Jan 9, 2021 04:37
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Nam Taf posted:How do you ask entire legions of staff who work for private hotel chains to give up their lives for well over a year? You're not just asking them to quarantine for two weeks, you're asking them to essentially FIFO into a single building for a period of time, and then lock themselves in a room for 2 weeks, before being allowed back into society. The ideas I've heard from people are more like rotating in/out of remote locations. Something like work 10 days, isolate for 5 days while being tested, off work at home for 15 days.
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Jan 9, 2021 04:56
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a few days ago i said germany would reach 800 deaths / day by feb 8 reality said gently caress that poo poo 
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Jan 9, 2021 05:10
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freebooter posted:Yeah, like, I'm definitely not trying to rub anything in anyone's face but... all your governments hosed up. And if the shoe was on the other foot I'd be rightly furious at my own government. And it's bizarre to me that so many people will instinctively start making excuses for their governments and try to explain away Australia's (or New Zealand's, or Taiwan's, or Vietnam's) success. What kicked off this argument wasn't that, it was someone looking at a spreadsheet and drawing a conclusion that might very well make sense in a lot of places in the world, but shorn of the context of what the pandemic is like here i.e. we basically do not have a COVID problem and if we're about to have a COVID problem it sure as hell isn't going to come from a clerical error. There's a sort of blindness in America and Europe to the fact that actually, yeah, you can beat the virus and you don't have to be dictatorial weld-the-doors-closed China to do it. Sir, this is a drive-thru covid testing site.
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Jan 9, 2021 05:25
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Delta-Wye posted:You would have to rotate in/out while quarantining in between. I think daily tests just give you slightly more warning you've hosed up - by the time you've got the virus reproducing and you can test positive its too damned late to react. You've got to be proactive. RichardA posted:The ideas I've heard from people are more like rotating in/out of remote locations. Something like work 10 days, isolate for 5 days while being tested, off work at home for 15 days. So do you make people work 2 weeks then quarantine 2 weeks then 2 weeks off? That's going to be a huge toll on the employees, but might be workable with the right people. It also implies a 3x staff ratio. 4 on, 2 quarantine, 4 off, to minimise the relative time in isolation? That's still 6 weeks away from people's friends and family.
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Jan 9, 2021 06:19
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Pastamania posted:Can you, like, maybe not do this when a thousand people are dying every day here at the moment? The UK's policies caused those deaths, the UK's policies lead to this new strain becoming so widespread, and there's nothing wrong with reminding the UK's people (who will hopefully replace all of the politicians who supported these policies, and ostracize the individuals who spend every day downplaying this poo poo)
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Jan 9, 2021 06:24
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Nam Taf posted:Except that they have to isolate for 14 days, not 5. You can't tell them to spend their entire time off work in home isolation, since that's their time spent getting in social interaction after they've been locked on a remote site for however long and then in quarantine for 2 additional weeks. Any FIFO-style rotation will have to budget in the two-week quarantine, and that's what makes it an order of magnitude harder than scheduling a standard FIFO roster. See, this is good. We have reached agreement that this is possible, now it's just a matter of quibbling over details to figure out how to make it most practical. I don't even disagree with your assessments regarding amount of staff, etc, it all sounds reasonable and probably either fairly expensive to implement, or require utilizing military units so you can really force poo poo hours lol. My general comment is more - why hasn't Australia done something more practical? Why aren't they having this conversation? It seems plainly obvious what they are doing is a bad idea, and they've been burned by it several times.
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Jan 9, 2021 06:51
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There Bias Two posted:Our best hypothesis right now is that this strain probably arose in a single individual that had a long-term infection or was treated with antibodies in such a way as to create selective pressure. The degree of mutation (~20 amino acids) is too different from the other known strains for it to have developed cumulatively through person-to-person spread over time. That's pretty interesting actually. Maybe they should've stopped the virus spreading to all corners of the country to minimise the likelihood of this happening.
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Jan 9, 2021 08:45
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Delta-Wye posted:See, this is good. We have reached agreement that this is possible, now it's just a matter of quibbling over details to figure out how to make it most practical. I don't even disagree with your assessments regarding amount of staff, etc, it all sounds reasonable and probably either fairly expensive to implement, or require utilizing military units so you can really force poo poo hours lol. Of course it's possible in theory, I don't disagree there. I am sure if you offered 7 figures there'd be a whole heap of people who'd jump at the chance to live inside a hotel for a year. However, I am not convinced that there's no practical details that may make it unworkable, e.g. whether those staff then underestimate the strain of isolation and have unanticipated mental issues with the isolation. I agree completely though that the lack of this conversation is pretty drat dire. It's highlighted how reactive all of our state governments seem to want to be with this. Indeed the only proactive action I've heard is Queensland's change a couple of months ago where as soon as somoene in quarantine tests positive, they immediately send them to a hospital regardless of severity because the logic is that hospitals are purpose-built with ample staff training to prevent the spread of infection, whereas hotels and hotel staff are not. However, that's only possible if you have no internal cases and your case count through hotel quarantine isn't excessive. Otherwise, it's just all been reactive 'oh shucks, we hosed up, well I guess we better change something then!' bullshit. The idea that some German civilians can convince security that they should move onto a plane and be flown to Melbourne before any quarantine just shows how bad the communications and protocols are. Part of me thinks that the army should be running this, because they have the culture of strict heirarchy that is necessary to strictly follow process and rules.
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Jan 9, 2021 10:50
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QuarkJets posted:The UK's policies caused those deaths, the UK's policies lead to this new strain becoming so widespread, and there's nothing wrong with reminding the UK's people (who will hopefully replace all of the politicians who supported these policies, and ostracize the individuals who spend every day downplaying this poo poo) Calling people who are actively suffering right now 'fuckers' doesn't actually get this message across, because shockingly people don't like being called 'fuckers' at the best of times and especially not while they're acutely suffering long term for decisions they had no say in. Intentionally ostracising anyone when we need to convince them to put themselves through a great deal of pain, isolation and hardship for an extended period is an absolutely batshit loving insane idea. It's not like we can do anything about the politicians. Elections not for another 3 years and one thing we learned this week is that getting XxX360VapeLordXxX to try and overthrow a government doesn't work out well. We know Boris is poo poo, we know he dithers, we know he overpromises, and that he makes the obvious hard call 5 weeks too late every single loving time, but there's nothing we can do about it right now. Maybe he'll pay for it down the road. Either way, just kicking people who are down and suffering is a dick move that accomplishes nothing.
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Jan 9, 2021 11:17
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