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STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

You know, I kinda think Jeff Kent is a Hall of Famer but I can't wrap my mind around the thought process that gets you to "Jeff Kent is the only worthy person on this ballot."

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Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
Either MLB needs to take HOF voting power away from the BBWAA, or at a minimum institute a rule that you have to vote for a minimum number of guys per ballot or you get your voting privileges revoked from then on. So yeah, if you're a crotchety jackass who absolutely has to make your dumbass small hall point that nobody on the ballot deserves to be in then fine, submit a blank ballot and it'll count, but you really have to commit to dying on that hill because you ain't ever getting to vote again.

Thom P. Tiers
May 29, 2008

Red Birds
Red Ass
Red Text
I too would vote for the second baseman who magically mashed 300 home runs at age 30+ and played with Barry Bonds. But Bonds? No way you guys.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Sydin posted:

Either MLB needs to take HOF voting power away from the BBWAA, or at a minimum institute a rule that you have to vote for a minimum number of guys per ballot or you get your voting privileges revoked from then on. So yeah, if you're a crotchety jackass who absolutely has to make your dumbass small hall point that nobody on the ballot deserves to be in then fine, submit a blank ballot and it'll count, but you really have to commit to dying on that hill because you ain't ever getting to vote again.

MLB does not own the hall

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

MLB could open its own hall of fame

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


euphronius posted:

This kind of stuff really damages (damaged maybe the sport is almost dead ) the sport


https://twitter.com/tonycal93/status/1349010461174472711?s=21

Imho

Might be the funniest hall of fame ballot of all time.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I wanna be a baseball writer so I can submit a solo Bobby Abreu ballot or a writ in Fred McGriff ballot and just confuse the gently caress out of fans for an afternoon.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

MLB does not own the hall

If they actually cared MLB could either buy out the Hall or - more likely - go crying to Congress about it and have some dipshit senator hide an amendment in a must-pass spending bill that the Hall falls under MLB's state-sanctioned monopoly and so they just get it for free.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Shaugnessy not even voting for Clemens is true to character I guess

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

euphronius posted:

This kind of stuff really damages (damaged maybe the sport is almost dead ) the sport


https://twitter.com/tonycal93/status/1349010461174472711?s=21

Imho
now THAT is a "look at me" ballot, hot drat

Shiroc
May 16, 2009

Sorry I'm late
Since I started the whole Bryce Harper thing, when I said good not great was mostly a reflection on how when I got back into baseball, it was always TROUT OR HARPER?! Now Trout is firmly, absolutely much better than Harper, there are other players consistently or year to year better than Harper. Going by bwar right at the moment, Harper is tied with Kyle Seager. Obviously Seager is tailing off already and Harper has a ton of time left but Seager's prime years were more consistently high than Harper's were to date.

Seager was a good player in his prime, absolutely a valuable player to have, a local star but not really someone you'd think of as a great. If Harper puts up his current average numbers his whole career, you'd be less likely to be like "how the gently caress does he not have more playoff games or championships?" that we do for Trout. Nothing about how pay or whatever, I'm glad he got paid for being a solid, valuable, good right fielder.

Talking about Harper as the biggest star in baseball seems like a weird holdover from half a decade ago. It would absolutely seem like Betts, Judge, or maybe Lindor (especially on the Mets. He already does national commercials) would be well past him.

Kevlar v2.0
Dec 25, 2003

=^•⩊•^=

This is my favorite Jeff Kent moment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIQGWY0woy0

alpha_destroy
Mar 23, 2010

Billy Butler: Fat Guy by Day, Doubles Machine by Night

Shiroc posted:

Since I started the whole Bryce Harper thing, when I said good not great was mostly a reflection on how when I got back into baseball, it was always TROUT OR HARPER?! Now Trout is firmly, absolutely much better than Harper, there are other players consistently or year to year better than Harper. Going by bwar right at the moment, Harper is tied with Kyle Seager. Obviously Seager is tailing off already and Harper has a ton of time left but Seager's prime years were more consistently high than Harper's were to date.

Seager was a good player in his prime, absolutely a valuable player to have, a local star but not really someone you'd think of as a great. If Harper puts up his current average numbers his whole career, you'd be less likely to be like "how the gently caress does he not have more playoff games or championships?" that we do for Trout. Nothing about how pay or whatever, I'm glad he got paid for being a solid, valuable, good right fielder.

Talking about Harper as the biggest st ar in baseball seems like a weird holdover from half a decade ago. It would absolutely seem like Betts, Judge, or maybe Lindor (especially on the Mets. He already does national commercials) would be well past him.

This comp makes no sense because it totally ignores what Harper's skill set actually is. Kyle Seager's career best OBP is literally 28 points below Harper's average OBP. I don't expect them to age similarly.

I think the Harper in people's brains right now has really been hurt by some things that are tricking us when we skim his bref page. He was bad in 2018. Then he had a slump to start 2019 that I think cemented that in people's brains as a bad year even when it wasn't. Then 2020, in which he was quite good--not Betts good, but quite good--was a weird zombie season.

Plus, he might also be perpetually unlucky. The last time his wOBA was over his xwOBA was 2017. His 2020 xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, and Hard Hit% were all his best since 2015. As in they were all better than his crazy monster year. Seriously, I know he has been a bit disappointing. And I know the projections don't like him for 2021 either. But I think Bryce Harper has a serious shot at breaking-out for another monster year.

Bregor
May 31, 2013

People are idiots, Leslie.

Thom P. Tiers posted:

I too would vote for the second baseman who magically mashed 300 home runs at age 30+ and played with Barry Bonds. But Bonds? No way you guys.

rofl

The sportswriter from Boston is voting for a guy who played the game The Right Way with class and dignity and respect and integrity and the right amount of melanin

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida


I'm extremely happy that this is what I hoped it was

Penisaurus Sex
Feb 3, 2009

asdfghjklpoiuyt
It'd be insane for Harper to get anywhere near his peak year again.

There are 7 living players who touched the 200 OPS+ barrier*, and only one of them ever broke through more than once (guess who). Trout has been over 180 twice and over 190 once (198).

Harper hit 198 in 2015 but his career will probably be around the 140-145 OPS+ barrier. Should be a HOFer combined with notoriety and name recognition, but I think there's almost no chance he ever breaks 190 OPS+ in a season again.

*: Soto last year did it but idk if you'd consider it 'real'.

Penisaurus Sex fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Jan 12, 2021

Johnny Bravo
Jan 19, 2011

Bregor posted:

rofl

The sportswriter from Boston is voting for a guy who played the game The Right Way with class and dignity and respect and integrity and the right amount of melanin

Seriously. That ballot is essentially the skin color meter meme come to life

Legit surprised he left Schilling off

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Really feeling like nobody gets elected this year

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Johnny Bravo posted:

Seriously. That ballot is essentially the skin color meter meme come to life

Legit surprised he left Schilling off
his column hints that he doesn't see Schilling as a slam-dunk even before considering the nazi-tendencies

alpha_destroy
Mar 23, 2010

Billy Butler: Fat Guy by Day, Doubles Machine by Night

Penisaurus Sex posted:

It'd be insane for Harper to get anywhere near his peak year again.

There are 7 living players who touched the 200 OPS+ barrier*, and only one of them ever broke through more than once (guess who). Trout has been over 180 twice and over 190 once (198).

Harper hit 198 in 2015 but his career will probably be around the 140-145 OPS+ barrier. Should be a HOFer combined with notoriety and name recognition, but I think there's almost no chance he ever breaks 190 OPS+ in a season again.

*: Soto last year did it but idk if you'd consider it 'real'.

Yeah maybe I should define monster year, because you are right I don't think he comes close to 198 again. But over this shortened season he put up 157 with arguably bad luck. So yeah, with some good luck I think it is possible that he could spike and sniff if not touch 170 again.

Edit: These conversations are always a little frustrating to me. The last time the Royals had a right-fielder put up even 4 WAR was Jermaine Dye in 2000. Granted, Gordon had a good peak in left, and Cain was loving electric in center. But yeah, I would loooove it if my team could have Harper for 25 million a year. Sign me up.

alpha_destroy fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Jan 12, 2021

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer

Shiroc posted:

Since I started the whole Bryce Harper thing, when I said good not great was mostly a reflection on how when I got back into baseball, it was always TROUT OR HARPER?! Now Trout is firmly, absolutely much better than Harper, there are other players consistently or year to year better than Harper. Going by bwar right at the moment, Harper is tied with Kyle Seager. Obviously Seager is tailing off already and Harper has a ton of time left but Seager's prime years were more consistently high than Harper's were to date.

Seager was a good player in his prime, absolutely a valuable player to have, a local star but not really someone you'd think of as a great. If Harper puts up his current average numbers his whole career, you'd be less likely to be like "how the gently caress does he not have more playoff games or championships?" that we do for Trout. Nothing about how pay or whatever, I'm glad he got paid for being a solid, valuable, good right fielder.

Talking about Harper as the biggest star in baseball seems like a weird holdover from half a decade ago. It would absolutely seem like Betts, Judge, or maybe Lindor (especially on the Mets. He already does national commercials) would be well past him.

I think it's mostly a hold over from all the hype Harper had coming into the league at 19. People seemed to always give him a lot of poo poo and I was never sure why, maybe just because he was so hyped that if he wasn't putting up 1.000+ OPS then he must be garbage or because he comes off as kind of cocky, but he doesn't seem like an rear end in a top hat so idk.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
Bryce Harper wRC+ by year since his debut:

2012: 121
2013: 136
2014: 115
2015: 197
2016: 111
2017: 155
2018: 134
2019: 125
2020: 151

Dude can loving hit and it is mindboggling to me that anybody complains about his performance at all.

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Popete posted:

I think it's mostly a hold over from all the hype Harper had coming into the league at 19. People seemed to always give him a lot of poo poo and I was never sure why, maybe just because he was so hyped that if he wasn't putting up 1.000+ OPS then he must be garbage or because he comes off as kind of cocky, but he doesn't seem like an rear end in a top hat so idk.
It's absolutely because of the hot start to his career and subsequent (relative) stall

From ages 19-22 he was elite, among the best hitters all time at that age (though still not as good as Trout, a god among men), and since then he's been just very good which is an underperformance relative to the expectations his early career set

When a guy puts up 5 WAR at 19, he looks capable of a 100+ WAR career. So when he slows down after that and instead looks on track for "only" 50-70 WAR people overreact because he feels like a disappointment.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Popete posted:

I think it's mostly a hold over from all the hype Harper had coming into the league at 19. People seemed to always give him a lot of poo poo and I was never sure why, maybe just because he was so hyped that if he wasn't putting up 1.000+ OPS then he must be garbage or because he comes off as kind of cocky, but he doesn't seem like an rear end in a top hat so idk.

Yeah. Harper's great, but he was supposed to be a god so now "great" feels like a disappointment. Which is silly and stupid and unfair but also kind of human.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Its called Andruw Jones syndrome

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Not even close to Andruw Jones' level of falling off a cliff.

From ages 20-30, Jones averaged 5.5 bWAR a year. Then at age 31 he posted -1.6 and only had one season >1.0 bWAR the rest of his career. He went from being one of the greatest CF defenders ever to a 35 OPS+ and negative defensive value, in one year.

No one has collapsed as spectacularly as Andruw Jones.

bawfuls fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Jan 12, 2021

Shiroc
May 16, 2009

Sorry I'm late
The most fitting next stage is for Harper to get an extremely unfortunate injury next season so the conversation of 'what could he have been for the back half of his career' can be endless speculation and debate no matter what he actually does.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

bawfuls posted:

From ages 19-22 he was elite, among the best hitters all time at that age (though still not as good as Trout, a god among men), and since then he's been just very good which is an underperformance relative to the expectations his early career set

Not really? Ages ranked by wRC+:

22
24
27
20
25
26
19
21

That's a pretty even spread, he's consistently been a phenomenal hitter. It's more that his 2015 was such an incredible outlier that he's forever been compared to it. Hell, his two worst seasons by wRC+ were his rookie year and 2014.

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

i mean good god, just look at this

Andruw Jones dWAR, by season:

2.5
3.9
3.8
2.7
3.0
2.3
1.7
1.1
2.0
1.5
2.2
-0.5
-0.8
0.1
-0.4
-0.5

That's absurd and may never be matched. And his bat collapsed too! Career line before coming to LA: .263/.342/.497
His line that season on the Dodgers: .158/.256/.249

It was painful to watch and seeing that season first hand is why he'll never feel like a Hall of Famer to me.

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Sydin posted:

Not really? Ages ranked by wRC+:

22
24
27
20
25
26
19
21

That's a pretty even spread, he's consistently been a phenomenal hitter. It's more that his 2015 was such an incredible outlier that he's forever been compared to it. Hell, his two worst seasons by wRC+ were his rookie year and 2014.
by WAR, not offense alone. He was 12th all time in WAR through age 22, though yes that's maybe inflated by the MVP season but hey he did it at 22.

edit: his 5.2 bWAR at age 19 was the highest ever by a hitter in an age-19 or younger season, and it's not even a small margin. #2 is Mel Ott's 3.7 bWAR in 1928, followed by Griffey with 3.3 (Soto is 6th).

bawfuls fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Jan 12, 2021

Thom P. Tiers
May 29, 2008

Red Birds
Red Ass
Red Text

bawfuls posted:

No one has collapsed as spectacularly as Andruw Jones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VL8qdIcfBCc

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Ryan Howard's peak season was 5.2 WAR. Andruw Jones averaged 5.5 WAR a year for 11 consecutive seasons.

The timing and narrative of Howard tearing his Achilles the moment that extension was about to kick in is spectacular sure, but it was nowhere near the fall in production we saw from Jones.

Tony Phillips
Feb 9, 2006

bawfuls posted:

Ryan Howard's peak season was 5.2 WAR. Andruw Jones averaged 5.5 WAR a year for 11 consecutive seasons.

The timing and narrative of Howard tearing his Achilles the moment that extension was about to kick in is spectacular sure, but it was nowhere near the fall in production we saw from Jones.

It's almost impossible to top Jones when you consider the simultaneous drop off in defense. It was really crazy.

Old sluggers that fell off a drat cliff at 30 club members, but nowhere near Jones:
Adam Dunn
Richie Sexson

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




I'm pretty sure Harper was in prime posistion to win a 2nd MVP in 2017 until he slipped on a wet bag and missed the last month of the season


And how do you vote for Jeff Kent and not Scott Rolen

Thom P. Tiers
May 29, 2008

Red Birds
Red Ass
Red Text

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

And how do you vote for Jeff Kent and not Scott Rolen

lmao I didn't even think about it this way. gently caress that guy.

It's crazy how similar their stats were and then you throw in elite third base defense and just what on earth.



This year was insane gently caress the Red Sox so much.

Thom P. Tiers fucked around with this message at 21:55 on Jan 12, 2021

No Safe Word
Feb 26, 2005

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

And how do you vote for Jeff Kent and not Scott Rolen

Yeah what the gently caress

also I know Beltre was on the Dodgers for a long time but I just always think Mariners/Rangers for him, and I'm going to be sad if/when he doesn't get voted in right away too

alpha_destroy
Mar 23, 2010

Billy Butler: Fat Guy by Day, Doubles Machine by Night
It Beltre isn't first ballot than the BBWAA has seriously lost the plot.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
No rings, no MVP's, and couldn't even reach 500 HR's? Sounds like a bum to me, I'll be leaving my ballot blank again this year thank you very much.

Carlosologist
Oct 13, 2013

Revelry in the Dark

https://twitter.com/baseballtwit/status/1349091220740583425?s=21

I come providing dark knowledge

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habeasdorkus
Nov 3, 2013

Royalty is a continuous shitposting motion.
whaaaaaat?

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