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I think he'll be too old to run but he'll still run just to keep his grift going. After all, he's in hundreds of millions in debt.
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Jan 15, 2021 16:14
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Here's how bad it is, https://twitter.com/New_Narrative/status/1350098139135561729?s=20
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Jan 15, 2021 16:16
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https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/727604522156228608
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Jan 15, 2021 16:21
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This is good to know with regards to that pew poll https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexIp718/status/1350100214590431233
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Jan 15, 2021 16:23
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Ha! I love the idea of a "healthier" 38%.
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Jan 15, 2021 16:28
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The line on 538 looks like a cliff. It's funny because most presidents get a slight boost on their way out the door. Even W saw his approval rating tick up a few points during the lame duck session.
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Jan 15, 2021 16:55
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Raenir Salazar posted:On the flip side, there is also not enough statistical evidence to suggest that these "long historical patterns" have any merit. The Great Realignment was starting about 50 years ago, 30 years before that was the New Deal, then consider the years of the Gilded Age and Reconstruction before that, these "trends" I don't think have the certainty to them you're attributing.  There really is though because of the thermostatic dynamic in US public opinion, though really this has often been the case in electoral systems where the executive and legislative elections don't align. This deadlock dynamic is why France passed the cohabitation amendment to align the terms of the president and the parliament for example. The democrat majority is large enough that they might retain the majority after the midterms, but it's going to be close. I also don't really like that Trump is such a massive outlier in terms of longterm trends as most think (though obviously an outlier in rhetoric and actions). In any large and diverse country any election will always defy some trends, but in terms of very large and continuous trends it looks like the education depolarization that happened during Obama where the correlation between party vote and education level actually went down was one of the more significant trend breaks. Though it returned to trend after Obama again. Dante fucked around with this message at 17:04 on Jan 15, 2021 |
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Jan 15, 2021 17:00
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There are some very interesting results in that Pew poll. I feel like a broken record, but once again I think it's too simple to look at the topline and say that Trump or his followers are finished in the Republican Party.  First of all, three quarters of Trump voters still think he won the election. And, unsurprisingly, the ones who describe themselves as most conservative are most likely to think that way, while the moderate ones aren't. But, recall, this is Trump voters, not registered Republicans or anything like that. So my guess would be that that 75% figure is actually higher among people likely to vote in Republican primaries, since the 22% who say he lost the election are probably more likely to be non-primary voters who voted for Trump in the general.  Second, people who think Trump won the election (which, again, is 75% of Trump voters) think he bears no responsibility for the Capitol riot.  Third, a large majority of Republicans want Trump to continue being a political figure in the future. The topline here is skewed by the basically unanimous Democrats who want him gone, but they don't get to decide who appears on Fox News or who runs in Republican primaries, so they actually don't have much influence over whether or not Trump remains a pivotal figure in the Republican media-political ecosystem.  Fourth, breaking down the topline approval rating we see that while Trump is extremely unpopular overall, and increasingly so with Republicans overall, the one group that's steadfastly continuing to support him is conservative Republicans, 55% of whom continue to say they "very strongly" approve of Trump's presidency. Again, the topline shows deep unpopularity in the general public, but the breakdown of Republican views show that Trump remains extremely popular with the kinds of people that decide Republican primaries.  Finally, this image sums up some of the issues here. Republicans, and especially conservative Republicans, remain committed to Trump's narrative of the election: he won, Biden stole it, Trump should stick around in politics, and his behaviour since the election is generally good and he isn't responsible for the Capitol riot. 29% of Republicans believe all of that, and half of them believe most of it. Only one in four believe none of that is true. This is the kind of poll that points to a GOP civil war between Republican politicians who see the toplines and realize that Trump is electoral poison in a general election, and their own base who even after everything that's happened continue to buy into Trump's narrative of the election and of the direction the United States is taking, and therefore continue to support him no matter what happens. vyelkin fucked around with this message at 17:07 on Jan 15, 2021 |
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Jan 15, 2021 17:04
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vyelkin posted:
Good review, I guess my question is what happens to political parties that believe in baseless conspiracies and don't understand why they're losing in the first place? Are there any historical analogies? What impact did Nixon/Ford and Carter have their parties? It seems the Republicans recovered after Bush and even Bush Jr. quite well but I don't believe that'll be the case for Trump.
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Jan 15, 2021 17:30
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Gabriel S. posted:If they don't convict Trump all he's going to do for next four years is continually litigate the election but not in court but merely constantly whining on television. I've been thinking about this myself and sadly agree. Depressing thing is, I think it will work on a certain level. I don't think we're staring down an over abundance of talk show appearances or his own TV network but some other stupid reality TV show wouldn't entirely shock me. Americans (and especially boomers) still eat this type of poo poo up and have DVR cable. I'm not certain what shape it could take but there's no real bottom to Trump's integrity nor the dumb bullshit people will watch on TV so there has to be a Venn diagram overlap in there somewhere that could sell some advertising. Come to think of it...reviving The Apprentice wouldn't totally surprise me. Bird in a Blender posted:
Oh gently caress you for putting this in my head. I live in FL and just pictured him winning. Which he probably would. Question is, is being the self appointed king of one state enough to placate his ego after being in the Big Boy Chair of the White House? Christ. He'd make Mar-a-lago the loving state capitol. BiggerBoat fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Jan 15, 2021 |
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Jan 15, 2021 17:52
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At least Rubio would get exactly what he deserved out of the deal. Meanwhile, no one but Fox or one of their misbegotten rivals is going to put Trump on TV at this point, and that's before he gets indicted or buried under lawsuits.
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Jan 15, 2021 18:03
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Sodomy Hussein posted:At least Rubio would get exactly what he deserved out of the deal. Yes they will. Maybe not right away but I can easily picture 60 Minutes for example doing a segment with him if Trump had the balls to agree to it.
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Jan 15, 2021 18:43
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Thanks for the thoughtful responses all. I would point out that Trump will be a gadfly for at least the next 4 years regardless of whether they convict or not, so I don't see that factoring in their decision. While I agree there are many other Senators that would love to see him marginalized, outside of Trump himself, only a united front from Fortune 500 companies could really make a difference. It's sort of happening now, I think how hard they push it and whether they sustain it will determine if it sticks. I wouldn't be shocked if he gets his Twitter account back in 6-12 months. e: From Trumps perspective, his idiotic actions have really hurt him. No major network will show the Apprentice II, losing social media, if it sticks, will hurt pthighs fucked around with this message at 19:04 on Jan 15, 2021 |
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Jan 15, 2021 18:56
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vyelkin posted:It will probably help a little, but demographics aren't destiny.
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Jan 15, 2021 19:00
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Trump would never go for a Senate seat. One Senator ain't poo poo. It doesn't fit his in-charge attitude. On the other hand, Floridians have proven they don't care how much of a fraudster their governors are...
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Jan 15, 2021 20:53
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Trump's cratering support among Republicans confirms the theory that the cultish following he had was never about him at all. It was because he was the face of conservatism. He was the figurehead of a movement based on grievance against the dangerous other, elevated to godhood by the right wing media machine. In the end, the only thing that he could do to lose support was fail to destroy his enemies. Mark my words, even his most die-hard fans will dump him in the memory hole. They will vote in force in the 2022 midterms because they still think they're under attack from the marxist pedophile elite and their blm stormtroopers. And whoever wins the 2024 primaries, whether it's Donald Trump jr or a stale piece of bread, will be deified by right wing media. That's what it exists for, after all.
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Jan 15, 2021 21:05
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Bird in a Blender posted:The line on 538 looks like a cliff. It's funny because most presidents get a slight boost on their way out the door. Even W saw his approval rating tick up a few points during the lame duck session. Holy poo poo lol, yeah it does. I think we probably need to wait to see how that shakes out over the next month before we start predicting Trump 2024. McConnell and co have their fingers in the air right now, and while the wind might change, right now it looks horrible for Trump.
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Jan 15, 2021 21:22
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that duck posted:Trump's cratering support among Republicans confirms the theory that the cultish following he had was never about him at all. It was because he was the face of conservatism. He was the figurehead of a movement based on grievance against the dangerous other, elevated to godhood by the right wing media machine. In the end, the only thing that he could do to lose support was fail to destroy his enemies. He has the support of roughly half the Republican Party.
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Jan 15, 2021 21:22
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:Trump would never go for a Senate seat. One Senator ain't poo poo. It doesn't fit his in-charge attitude. On the other hand, Floridians have proven they don't care how much of a fraudster their governors are... Maybe, but I wouldn't be so sure. Depending on how he comes out of all this poo poo, "King of Florida" might really do it for him.
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Jan 15, 2021 21:43
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that duck posted:Trump's cratering support among Republicans confirms the theory that the cultish following he had was never about him at all. It was because he was the face of conservatism. He was the figurehead of a movement based on grievance against the dangerous other, elevated to godhood by the right wing media machine. In the end, the only thing that he could do to lose support was fail to destroy his enemies. If this was true then Republicans would've handedly won the runoffs, and this level of support didn't really exist for Romney or Bush, I think Trump represented to some extent a aligning of the planets to get that kind of support and I don't see Republicans replicating it without losing something else. Trump had a bit of an non-traditional republican outsider advantage going into the primaries and the magic ability to con a bunch of people into believing he stood for them, a career republican trying to replicate Trump will have all the odiousness but without the perception filter.
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Jan 15, 2021 21:44
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that duck posted:Trump's cratering support among Republicans confirms the theory that the cultish following he had was never about him at all. It was because he was the face of conservatism. He was the figurehead of a movement based on grievance against the dangerous other, elevated to godhood by the right wing media machine. In the end, the only thing that he could do to lose support was fail to destroy his enemies. It's hard to square this with the Qultists who think Trump is some sleeper agent out to make mass arrests of "Washington DC pedophiles". The true believers still think something is going to happen to keep Biden from being president. I think the cratering support is more that any Republican who wasn't totally bought in has abandoned him because the consequences of all his talk have finally come to fruition, and it's ugly. Business Republicans know a coup is bad for business. Then again, you could be completely right because these people are impossible to predict.
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Jan 15, 2021 22:09
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The NRA just declared bankruptcy. And Sheldon Adelson passed way. You might as well consider the best Republicans PACs completely annihilated.
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Jan 15, 2021 22:16
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I'm reading this and the only thing I can really distill from it is "Republicans will lock horns around their own."
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Jan 15, 2021 22:17
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Gabriel S. posted:The NRA just declared bankruptcy. And Sheldon Adelson passed way. You might as well consider the best Republicans PACs completely annihilated. Their assets will be picked up at firesale by the new Texas nonprofit National Rifle Alliance in about 5 seconds.
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Jan 15, 2021 22:21
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Gabriel S. posted:The NRA just declared bankruptcy. And Sheldon Adelson passed way. You might as well consider the best Republicans PACs completely annihilated. The Mercers and Erik Prince are still around.
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Jan 15, 2021 22:21
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Gabriel S. posted:The NRA just declared bankruptcy. And Sheldon Adelson passed way. You might as well consider the best Republicans PACs completely annihilated. Source?
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Jan 15, 2021 22:22
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BiggerBoat posted:Yes they will. Maybe not right away but I can easily picture 60 Minutes for example doing a segment with him if Trump had the balls to agree to it. That's really not the same as the Trump show, and that would go about the same as those old shows where they track down conmen and ask them why they are like this
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Jan 15, 2021 22:46
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Silver2195 posted:Source? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-guns/national-rifle-association-says-it-has-filed-bankruptcy-petitions-in-u-s-court-idUSKBN29K2LV Looks to be just a corporate shell game to move to Texas where I assume the business taxes are much lower and the politicians will be easier to
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Jan 15, 2021 22:50
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For as much as the media was complicit in Trump winning, I think it's safe to say they're done giving him softball interviews. That could change in a few years, who knows, but I don't think anyone but Fox is going to give him airtime without asking "remember the time you incited a riot in the U.S. Capitol?"
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Jan 15, 2021 22:53
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MakaVillian posted:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-guns/national-rifle-association-says-it-has-filed-bankruptcy-petitions-in-u-s-court-idUSKBN29K2LV It's at best extremely weird to declare that you are (A) bankrupt and (B) leaving New York to reincorporate in Texas to solve this, 100% on the  notion that this will shield you from law enforcement in New York.While the NRA has been a right wing front organization since the 1970s, the fraudsters have completely taken over and are almost finished robbing the coffers. goethe.cx posted:For as much as the media was complicit in Trump winning, I think it's safe to say they're done giving him softball interviews. That could change in a few years, who knows, but I don't think anyone but Fox is going to give him airtime without asking "remember the time you incited a riot in the U.S. Capitol?" George W. Bush reingratiated himself with the public because he almost never talks politics publicly and when he does, it's non-controversial stuff. Donald Trump is a howling buffoon and will try to torment everyone with his imaginary grievances until he dies.
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Jan 15, 2021 23:15
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George W Bush also almost completely disappeared. I don't even know what state he decided to live in.
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Jan 15, 2021 23:18
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Pick posted:George W Bush also almost completely disappeared. I don't even know what state he decided to live in. He hosed off to his ranch in Texas and took up painting
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Jan 15, 2021 23:19
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that duck posted:I really, REALLY wish people would stop claiming that the 2018 midterms went blue because "Trump wasn't on the ballot." The president's party ALWAYS loses seats in the midterm. That's been a constant in US elections for almost 100 years (with only ~3 exceptions, iirc). The 2018 midterms had the highest turnout in 70 or so years and was the most lopsided in 100 years (in terms of actual voting rather than seats).
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Jan 15, 2021 23:21
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Pick posted:George W Bush also almost completely disappeared. I don't even know what state he decided to live in. He's announced he'll be at Biden inauguration and he'll even be participating. Not just watching.
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Jan 15, 2021 23:23
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Gabriel S. posted:He's announced he'll be at Biden inauguration and he'll even be participating. Not just watching. I'm seeing news that he's attending, but where are you getting that he's participating? Not doubting you; that's just...grotesque news that I'd like to know the parameters of. 
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Jan 15, 2021 23:35
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Majorian posted:I'm seeing news that he's attending, but where are you getting that he's participating? Not doubting you; that's just...grotesque news that I'd like to know the parameters of. A bunch of the living presidents that aren't trump are going to come together. Not just specifically bush
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Jan 15, 2021 23:40
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Majorian posted:I'm seeing news that he's attending, but where are you getting that he's participating? Not doubting you; that's just...grotesque news that I'd like to know the parameters of. He's suppose do some kind of America United themed event during the inauguration along with Carter, Clinton and Obama. All the living US Presidents but not Trump. Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Jan 15, 2021 |
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Jan 15, 2021 23:41
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Gabriel S. posted:He's announced he'll be at Biden inauguration and he'll even be participating. Not just watching. Given his family background, presumably he'll he handling the requests for applause.
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Jan 15, 2021 23:44
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Gabriel S. posted:He's suppose do some kind of America United themed event during the inauguration along with Carter, Clinton and Obama. All the living US Presidents but not Trump.
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Jan 15, 2021 23:46
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 21:12 |
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Trump is 100% not going to attend any of the events that all living presidents typically attend together. It'll be Pence
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Jan 15, 2021 23:47
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