(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
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ah yes, George Kennan's Long Telegram, noted successful strategy document
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Jan 28, 2021 16:20
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i say swears online posted:https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/01/28/china-foreign-policy-long-telegram-anonymous-463120 TL;DR: America needs its own Xi Jinping?
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Jan 28, 2021 16:22
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i say swears online posted:https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/01/28/china-foreign-policy-long-telegram-anonymous-463120 code:I have a hunch Mr. Anonymous is on that 28 sanctioned list.
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Jan 28, 2021 16:29
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All you have to do is divide up the communist party and oust Xi, and then the next leader to emerge will be our friend Bing bong, so simple
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Jan 28, 2021 16:33
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"There's so much secret dissent y'all don't even KNOW about" is my favorite foreign policy genre
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Jan 28, 2021 16:36
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the silent majority strikes again
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Jan 28, 2021 17:16
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stephenthinkpad posted:
"Hello, my name... is Mr Oepmop. Yes, That'll work"
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Jan 28, 2021 17:45
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stephenthinkpad posted:
also lol the whole reason Kennan was X was because he was IN MOSCOW. A former official has no reason to hide their identity, unless it reveal they were a partisan hack
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Jan 28, 2021 18:25
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maybe this mr anonymous is actually xi jinping playing 5d chess
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Jan 28, 2021 20:01
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It’s the mypillow guy
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Jan 28, 2021 20:30
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i say swears online posted:https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/01/28/china-foreign-policy-long-telegram-anonymous-463120
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Jan 29, 2021 13:17
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Not So Fast posted:"Hello, my name... is Mr Oepmop. Yes, That'll work" 
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Jan 29, 2021 13:24
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That said, it is interesting to think of the set of dominos that his telegram set in place. It set into place both an anti-Soviet containment strategy but also would likely be a factor in later Sino-US re-approach and continually focus on Soviet foreign policy against the Soviet Union. If Cold War started more from a position of detente rather than total hostility, China may have never industrialized as quickly as it did. The US by pushing so hard in one direction to crush the Soviets eventually recreated a secondary-effect where they became blindsided by China. Now the hope is that everything can be fixed by taking Xi out the equation because DC finally figured out that Xi really isn't like his predecessor. The problem is a "series of red lines" are completely unenforceable and it is hard to see the rest of the CPC suddenly hoping to replace Xi for vague reasons. If China is going to be or is already the largest economy on earth, why play to the Americans in the first place? Moreover, how is the US going to enforce redlines when the PRC is gaining a military advantage in the region? The article mentions that continual hostility toward the Russians is/was a bad idea (and it was), but no real recognition that this was simply containment taking a zombie-like form and essentially making American foreign policy impossible to manage. It also directly connects to the Navalny issue since Biden is trying to push hard on it when in reality it is not going to be enough to take the Kremlin, but it is going to be enough to keep the Russians hostile. More over Nordstream 2 is continually under construction in a larger part because Merkel has made it clear that European (specifically German) priorities are going to supersede the needs of Washington. The Beltway only knows how to push and it is costing them. In the end, nothing new but I wonder if Biden will actually come up with a new strategy at this point. I really doubt Iran is going to jump ship and if anything, the one move Biden has made (backing off from supporting the Saudis) doesn't really seem to have a clear goal in mind. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 15:37 on Jan 29, 2021 |
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Jan 29, 2021 15:33
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~i. am. your sing-ing tel-e-gram!~ ~the single most important challenge facing the united states in the 21st century is the rise of an increasingly authoritarian china under president and general secretary xi jinpiiiiiiiing!~ 
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Jan 29, 2021 17:02
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If Biden is smart he should really drop the Nordstream issue and make up with Germany. The Germans have already made up their mind (and paid for their pipes), there is no amount of Navalny poisoning/"value difference" is going to make the Germans change their minds. As for the "Xi is the bad seed" narative, it's so stupid it has to be planted by the Chinese intelligence. Let's see how many US think tanks will eat up this poo poo.
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Jan 29, 2021 19:03
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stephenthinkpad posted:If Biden is smart he should really drop the Nordstream issue and make up with Germany. The Germans have already made up their mind (and paid for their pipes), there is no amount of Navalny poisoning/"value difference" is going to make the Germans change their minds. The issue is it would require a sizable shift in American foreign policy where Germany ,and hence the EU, from a dependent entity to an equal. Also, letting Understream 2 happen will legitimately may hasten the Ukrainians to come to terms with the Kremlin, which would stall the US' "push to the east" strategy that has been going on since the fall of the Soviet Union. I agree it is costing a lot of influence, but there is a reason there is a ton of institutional resistance to the idea. quote:As for the "Xi is the bad seed" narative, it's so stupid it has to be planted by the Chinese intelligence. Let's see how many US think tanks will eat up this poo poo. I mean let's be fair, "evil warlock" narratives still has a lot of pull in many Anglo-American circles including among leftists. That said unless there is a Krushchev/Gorbachev in the background, it isn't going to amount to much. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 01:11 on Jan 30, 2021 |
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Jan 30, 2021 01:00
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Why should the US continue push east ward in Eastern Europe, and cut into Russia's ever shrinking pie though? This position is so stupid in 2020. Russia has only 150 mil population, that's same class of population as Japan, Brazil, Bangeldesh. Russia is heavily rely on the military industry for export, which is going down hill. Russia is no longer a global player, but a regional hegemon, Obama said it a few times. The US should have change track and lean toward Russia against China at least 10 years ago. There was US think tank who argued the W admin should't expand NATO east ward beyond Poland to begin with. I wasn't paying attention to this stuff a few years ago so I don't remember his name. Could have been Mearsheimer. Anyway I agree with this opinion, US shouldn't make an long term enemy out of Russia post cold-war. Putin essentially is not very ideological and anti-US. Although you can still make an argument that the NATO expansion has some benefits, such as encourage Eastern bloc states joining EU and slow down the EU unification process; also plant bad blood between Russia and Georgia/Ukraine. In the US/Russia/China triangulur power relationship, you obviously want to dissuade the other 2 players form an alliance. And you want to ally with the weaker of the 2 against the stronger one. You can't find any think tank in the US talk about about this. UK traditionally is much smarter at playing this geopolitic game.
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Jan 30, 2021 03:09
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stephenthinkpad posted:Why should the US continue push east ward in Eastern Europe, and cut into Russia's ever shrinking pie though? This position is so stupid in 2020. -billy, age eight
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Jan 30, 2021 03:25
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stephenthinkpad posted:Why should the US continue push east ward in Eastern Europe, and cut into Russia's ever shrinking pie though? This position is so stupid in 2020. the answer is that the US is an insane beast high off its own propaganda. the leadership dictating this foreign policy is drawn from a shallow pool brought up under generations of american exceptionalism, still justified from a national myth of being the global good guys who liberated the world from the nazis in the name of freedom. every subsequent shock that america receives, like 9/11, diminishing influence among former allies, domestic unrest and loss of faith in institutions, and our total failures in iraq and afghanistan, only deepens the american mindset into a finger trap of struggling against material reality further, artificially shrinking any conceivable range of options to the ones which inevitably worsen the situation. we have to maintain global hegemony because we are good and just, and the rest of the world is either actively evil, naive and taking advantage of our beneficence, or third world incompetent filth. you want to try to understand what is happening rationally, but really america is a shambling, bloated corpse incapable of viewing the world through anything but a hubris encrusted lens. all these ridiculous positions, which obviously only harm the US’ credibility in the long run, are held by decision makers who truly believe themselves to be non-ideological, and only a truly deluded elite can fail to see the intentional structures created by their predecessors as somehow natural and technocratic
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Jan 30, 2021 04:01
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https://twitter.com/partisan_161/status/1355236133467205635
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Jan 30, 2021 06:12
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stephenthinkpad posted:Why should the US continue push east ward in Eastern Europe, and cut into Russia's ever shrinking pie though? This position is so stupid in 2020. Russia isn't just russia, its the former USSR, and its got the missiles to prove it. Most of the geopolitical stuff the US has been involved in since the wall came down has either been resource looting, or destabilizing regions that are not yet available to be looted. They "won" the cold war and they have what to show for it? Shock doctrine Russia and multiple failed* military projects to maintain the petrodollar? American adventurism was in the process of more or less winding down under Obama, they were securing what they already had. Trump let a lot of that global power poo poo slide cos he'd rather try and murder people at home. Where does that leave the biden admin? Well, I wouldn't put it past them to try a new military adventure, this would be unlikely to get broad support at home. I'd imagine it'll be sabre rattling at worst for the next couple of years. America is broken and its falling to the democrats to do triage but I don't think they realise that yet. *Not completely, they've kept the oil supply controlled, they have served to maintain combat readiness in the armed forces and moved a lot of public money into the right pockets. They also keep Israel and the gulf states happy.
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Jan 30, 2021 06:22
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Yeah, Obama was conclusively wrong about Russia being simply a "regional power" and the Russians have clearly shown they have power projection outside the former USSR. It feeds back into the larger issue that the US' made grave strategic mistakes in a larger part because it would have to mean some sort of compromise or admission of weakness with a competitor. Russia itself is neither the Soviet Union nor a regional power little sway, but we simply couldn't meet them on equal terms.
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Jan 30, 2021 06:53
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i say swears online posted:-billy, age eight
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Jan 30, 2021 13:11
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It's probably safer to say they USA doesn't have a cohesive geopolitical strategy. The various presidents and political parties/institutions just do whatever would provide them with short term gains. A lot of it is driven by the prevailing ideology which is probably the only thing that's really keepings the empire together still.
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Jan 30, 2021 13:21
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american empire was at its apex in the era of good feelings in congress. both parties are lurching husks and can't coordinate on anything outside the border
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Jan 30, 2021 13:22
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Lostconfused posted:It's probably safer to say they USA doesn't have a cohesive geopolitical strategy. The various presidents and political parties/institutions just do whatever would provide them with short term gains. A lot of it is driven by the prevailing ideology which is probably the only thing that's really keepings the empire together still. More like the US does what ever the short term special interests demand would be a good idea for their shareholder value.
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Jan 30, 2021 13:22
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i say swears online posted:american empire was at its apex in the era of good feelings in congress. both parties are lurching husks and can't coordinate on anything outside the border They all clap for the Guidoman.
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Jan 30, 2021 13:28
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genericnick posted:They all clap for the Guidoman. another sign the US is either less powerful or more hesitant to take action holding up its idea of the international order it wants. honduras and bolivia were fairly easy targets compared to chile and iran
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Jan 30, 2021 13:29
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Throatwarbler posted:TL;DR: America needs its own Xi Jinping? Lmao at all the bits in the article trying to spin the story about divisions in China's political system and society. Projection much? Also Comrade Xi turning wealth accumulation in a "Battle Royale" concept was a hilarious idea, get too much money and get fast tracked to a special list!
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Jan 30, 2021 14:02
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i say swears online posted:"There's so much secret dissent y'all don't even KNOW about" is my favorite foreign policy genre unlike our country which doesnt count because the dissenters are racist
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Jan 30, 2021 15:41
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https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1355149986158309379 bidens team must be furious that china only came up with this after theyd already decided their public relations strategy was going to be the gamestop traders are racist
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Jan 30, 2021 15:42
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i say swears online posted:american empire was at its apex in the era of good feelings in congress. both parties are lurching husks and can't coordinate on anything outside the border the American empire was at its apex when their were only 20 state, I agree. California and Texas joining the union was when things started going downhill.
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Jan 30, 2021 15:49
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Lostconfused posted:It's probably safer to say they USA doesn't have a cohesive geopolitical strategy. The various presidents and political parties/institutions just do whatever would provide them with short term gains. A lot of it is driven by the prevailing ideology which is probably the only thing that's really keepings the empire together still. i wouldn't be surprised if historians attribute the downfall of liberal democracy to it's inability to plan ahead past election cycles The only American institutions that are somewhat competent are also the ones that are completely cut off from the electoral system. Like the military and alphabet agencies.
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Jan 30, 2021 15:57
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I've always felt that having these grand elections where congress. senators, and the president elected at once is incredibly stupid. I recall that back in the day, house elections were staggered amongst states. That at least woudn't lead to the whiplash in adminstrative goals that the US currently suffers from.
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Jan 30, 2021 16:55
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ToxicAcne posted:I've always felt that having these grand elections where congress. senators, and the president elected at once is incredibly stupid. I recall that back in the day, house elections were staggered amongst states. That at least woudn't lead to the whiplash in adminstrative goals that the US currently suffers from. staggering elections is a conservative plan to drive down turnout PawParole posted:the American empire was at its apex when their were only 20 state, I agree. California and Texas joining the union was when things started going downhill.
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Jan 30, 2021 19:19
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https://twitter.com/RotUndRev/status/1290741294713786372?s=20 hate when libertarians are so right but yeah
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Jan 30, 2021 19:36
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i say swears online posted:staggering elections is a conservative plan to drive down turnout Yeah that is a huge drawback.
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Jan 30, 2021 20:04
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Trash Ops posted:https://twitter.com/RotUndRev/status/1290741294713786372?s=20 There is a CCTV show called 军事大家谈 （Military chit chat ) going back for 10+ years, its got terrible production value and its just three military historians sit down and talk about specific military topics or regions. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCWW1FZd19y_uQUT87zi0PIQ/videos They covered the topic of Afghanistan a few times. They mentioned that, I think was this was when Obama was still the president, the reason US was not leaving Afghanistan was that they couldn't let china and Iran do infrastructure development in Afghanistan to build railroad and roads to connect to Iran and Pakistan. Once these road were built, the regional growth would develop very fast. I mean the Chinese know about this. China and US were partners during the Soviet-Afghan war. There are always strategists in both sides of Pacific who subscribe to Mackinder's Heartland theory. "He who rule the center of Eurasia rules the Heartland, and commands the World Island." This bald guy (I wish I can listen to the whole talk) explained the original motivations of George W's gang's grand plan of going into Iraq and Afghanistan very well. This is the geopolitical reason, trying to plant permanent military bases right near the soft underbellies of Russia and China, while having more control of petroleum price, all at the same time. It was a very beautiful plan indeed.
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Jan 30, 2021 20:22
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Chomskyan posted:All you have to do is divide up the communist party and oust Xi, and then the next leader to emerge will be our friend you get a regime change and you get a regime change and you and you and you! EVERYONE GETS A RGEIME CHANGE!
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Jan 30, 2021 20:30
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stephenthinkpad posted:There is a CCTV show called 军事大家谈 （Military chit chat ) going back for 10+ years, its got terrible production value and its just three military historians sit down and talk about specific military topics or regions. Granted, a strategic partnership with the Russians seems to have solved the issue by opening up former Soviet Central Asia for infrastructure development (especially Turkmenistan) allowing relatively easy access to Iran. Also there is at least one major corridor linking Pakistan and China directly. Honestly, maybe the US did China a favor by forcing them to work around Afganistan in the first place. As for the "heartland" theory, it is probably true and arguably may have already happened.
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Jan 30, 2021 22:45
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