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ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.


This headline confused me some. Wasn't this the end state for vaccinated people to begin with? I thought this was expected to be announced. I would be more worried if they DIDN'T make an announcement like this, as that would imply that the vaccine does little to prevent transmission (for whatever reason).

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That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


ASAPI posted:

This headline confused me some. Wasn't this the end state for vaccinated people to begin with? I thought this was expected to be announced. I would be more worried if they DIDN'T make an announcement like this, as that would imply that the vaccine does little to prevent transmission (for whatever reason).

The worry was that being vaccinated could prevent the individual from getting sick but was unclear if they could briefly still be an asymptomatic spreader afaik.

Since so many people are sick and exposing themselves to people with the vaccine I guess we have enough data to not worry about that bit now.

piL
Sep 20, 2007
(__|\\\\)
Taco Defender
What this indicates to me is data that looks good, but is still insufficient. They're not sure whether or how infectious a vaccinated person will be (hence the maintained social distancing and mask wearing requirements), but maybe preliminary data shows sufficiently less that ita worth the risk.

Presumably, even if vaccinated individuals are still able to pass on the disease, its with less viral load, since the reasons a person would be asymptomatic is either a complete lack of immune response (in which that person will probably be dead in a couple of weeks, which I guess is a symptom) or a sufficiently effective immune response with which we might expect a lower amount of virus shed.

Or maybe the proportion of vaccinated individuals who are spreaders are possibly still the risky group. Or maybe it's mostly good, but they're worried about risks from new strains.

Or, finally, this inconsistency may be attributable to trying to manage social factors and economically influence immunization rates. Maybe it was determined to be worth it to maintain social distancing despite a determination that the contagiousness would be low enough to ensure that norms are encouraged and nobody assumes that maskless person at the bar is just vaccinated. Or the risks of people refusing vaccines is greater than the risk of exposed people remaining unquarantined, and by making the decision to not quarantine exposed people, this removes the financial risk of being an employer that opens the doors as long as all of its employees are vaccinated and encourages employers to demand proof of vaccination before hiring or allowing employees to return, to reduce their exposure to liability. I think the government has a hard time making a person get a vaccine, but they can restrict access to various parts of the public like facilities, schools or jobs since they're a risk to others, and this initiates a motivation for employment based enforcement of vaccination. People with rent to pay (i.e. everyone) will be motivated to get vaccinated despite their fears of the vaccine as the economy returns to functioning and they're left behind and employers keen to take advantage of a post-COVID (relative) boom will probably help promote vaccination in their hiring requirements, which will do far more than a PSA youtube ad or somesuch.

A lot of possibilities, and reasonably a combination of factors, listed and otherwise. I'm curious to see if they explain the decision more in depth.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

ASAPI posted:

This headline confused me some. Wasn't this the end state for vaccinated people to begin with? I thought this was expected to be announced. I would be more worried if they DIDN'T make an announcement like this, as that would imply that the vaccine does little to prevent transmission (for whatever reason).

The issue is too: There's new, worse variants of COVID coming out....so this may not actually be good advice.

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

CommieGIR posted:

The issue is too: There's new, worse variants of COVID coming out....so this may not actually be good advice.

The advice is wasted on me. I am doomed to shelter in place until August at the earliest it looks like in my area.

Proud Christian Mom
Dec 20, 2006
READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD
OPEN ER UP

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.
The UK continues to play the bongos on its testicles.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1359653603972104194?s=20

TCD
Nov 13, 2002

Every step, a fucking adventure.

Cythereal posted:

The UK continues to play the bongos on its testicles.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1359653603972104194?s=20

But you see, the MPs will of course figure out how to let the City of London still freely trade financial services amongst the EU while being beholden to none of their rules or regulations because ...

Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam were all chopping at the bit to siphon away London's power.

loving self owned again Brits.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Yawn.

CDC’s quarantine recommendation is ten days.

We know one in five infected persons will pop positive on days eleven, twelve, thirteen, or fourteen (and one in twenty beyond that).

CDC considers it acceptable that a quarter of infectious persons slip through quarantine.

A quarter of vaccinated persons could be fully infectious, and I would consider that pretty bad, but it would be consistent with CDC’s existing guidelines for them to say “in that case, vaccinated people are free to do whatever”.

Platystemon fucked around with this message at 19:35 on Feb 11, 2021

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
Glad our tiered healthcare system is reaping greater tangible benefits for the people who do all the heavy lifting in society!!!

CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Cythereal posted:

The UK continues to play the bongos on its testicles.

I love that the UK is using their nuts in a Newton's Cradle.

Midjack
Dec 24, 2007



lol it’s the US CDC, I’d wait for real scientists to say something about it because so far the message coming out of there has been:
They’re loving worthless.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Cythereal posted:

The UK continues to play the bongos on its testicles.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1359653603972104194?s=20

The Amsterdam Exchange was literally what influenced the creation of the London Exchange.

That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


Midjack posted:

lol it’s the US CDC, I’d wait for real scientists to say something about it because so far the message coming out of there has been:

They’re loving worthless.

So who specifically at CDC is suspect / worthless and are you familiar with the leadership overhaul that happened after the inauguration?

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

That Works posted:

So who specifically at CDC is suspect / worthless and are you familiar with the leadership overhaul that happened after the inauguration?

“No news is good news” has a different meaning in 2021.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

That Works posted:

So who specifically at CDC is suspect / worthless and are you familiar with the leadership overhaul that happened after the inauguration?

They could fumigate that whole organization and it’d still take me years to turn my opinion around after the shitshow we just had.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
BATSHIT BRUNCHTIME

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1359946977790685186?s=19

https://twitter.com/redsteeze/status/1359952729653714945?s=19

https://twitter.com/swin24/status/1359956785604526082?s=19

brains
May 12, 2004

That Works posted:

So who specifically at CDC is suspect / worthless and are you familiar with the leadership overhaul that happened after the inauguration?

the CDC only implemented a mask mandate on public transportation last month. honestly, it doesn't matter how much turnover there is, the organization's credibility, both domestically and internationally, has been obliterated and it will probably take the better part of a decade to even take the stink off of their actions over the last year.

they were the premier epidemiological experts in the world, and under their watch nearly half a million Americans are dead. we all know who's fault it really is, but the organization was supposed to be impartial and they weren't.

That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


brains posted:

the CDC only implemented a mask mandate on public transportation last month. honestly, it doesn't matter how much turnover there is, the organization's credibility, both domestically and internationally, has been obliterated and it will probably take the better part of a decade to even take the stink off of their actions over the last year.

Gee I wonder what changes were made last month.

The prior insinuation was that "real scientists" don't work there which is false. The issue at CDC (like many other government agencies) was leadership and not the actual scientists doing the work. The leadership has changed and with a drat good scientist running the show now. Of course their reputation is damaged, but its not like CDC was replaced in its entirety with hacks. I've personally spoken out at length against the CDC in CE threads for the last year or so. I'm not exactly their fanboy, but they've done the right things to be reestablishing their credibility.



Unrelated thread

https://twitter.com/kris_alexander/status/1359903370778185728?s=20

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS


CDC needs to put down this page like a rabid dog before it kills again.

e: They removed the bit about surgical masks since that screenshot was taken earlier this week.

Defenestrategy
Oct 24, 2010

facialimpediment posted:

BATSHIT BRUNCHTIME

Out of ALLLLL of my friends to get internet notoriety, I never would have assumed the "tantric sex guru*" would be the one to do it. Hope no one goes and starts messing with him, he's not a bad dude and doesn't really deserve it. :sigh:


*The fact he's known as same is news to me, I always knew him as the nerdy fitness dude at the gym.

That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


Platystemon posted:



CDC needs to put down this page like a rabid dog before it kills again.

:oof:

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Defenestrategy posted:

Out of ALLLLL of my friends to get famous, I never would have assumed the "tantric sex guru*" would be the one to do it. Hope no one goes and starts messing with him, he's not a bad dude and doesn't really deserve it. :sigh:


*The fact he's known as same is news to me, I always knew him as the nerdy fitness dude at the gym.

Being known for being the QAnon congresswoman's sidepiece is punishment enough, honestly.

Pigsfeet on Rye
Oct 22, 2008

I'm meat on the hoof

Defenestrategy posted:

Out of ALLLLL of my friends to get internet notoriety, I never would have assumed the "tantric sex guru*" would be the one to do it. Hope no one goes and starts messing with him, he's not a bad dude and doesn't really deserve it. :sigh:


*The fact he's known as same is news to me, I always knew him as the nerdy fitness dude at the gym.

A Tantric Sex Guru is a prime user name

brains
May 12, 2004

That Works posted:

Gee I wonder what changes were made last month.

The prior insinuation was that "real scientists" don't work there which is false. The issue at CDC (like many other government agencies) was leadership and not the actual scientists doing the work. The leadership has changed and with a drat good scientist running the show now. Of course their reputation is damaged, but its not like CDC was replaced in its entirety with hacks. I've personally spoken out at length against the CDC in CE threads for the last year or so. I'm not exactly their fanboy, but they've done the right things to be reestablishing their credibility.

they may be making the right moves now but that will not change the fact that their agency is tarnished and associated with bad medical practices now. it will be an enormously long haul to re-establish credibility within the larger medical communities (especially international ones). it's not going to happen anytime soon just because leadership has been replaced and now science is running the place again.

i actually was a huge fan of the CDC because i'm familiar with some of their work previously and they have some incredible people working there, and words can't describe how frustrating and infuriating it's been watching their sabotage in action over the last 4 years. the name itself is ruined; their credibility towards public health directives, which took decades to establish, is gone.

Defenestrategy
Oct 24, 2010

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Being known for being the QAnon congresswoman's sidepiece is punishment enough, honestly.

Luckily, I think the internet is more focused on his DragonCon cosplay, but really he didn't do anything wrong and he's not a chud so he doesn't really deserve any flak beyond "you stuck your dick in crazy bruh", but this is the internet so who knows if he won't end up a secondary casualty.

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

brains posted:

they may be making the right moves now but that will not change the fact that their agency is tarnished and associated with bad medical practices now. it will be an enormously long haul to re-establish credibility within the larger medical communities (especially international ones). it's not going to happen anytime soon just because leadership has been replaced and now science is running the place again.

i actually was a huge fan of the CDC because i'm familiar with some of their work previously and they have some incredible people working there, and words can't describe how frustrating and infuriating it's been watching their sabotage in action over the last 4 years. the name itself is ruined; their credibility towards public health directives, which took decades to establish, is gone.

That’s unfortunate because not believing scientists is a big part of what got us in this situation in the first place and that’s precisely what you’re advocating for now.

Apathetic Medic
Apr 22, 2010

Fun Shoe

boop the snoot posted:

That’s unfortunate because not believing scientists is a big part of what got us in this situation in the first place and that’s precisely what you’re advocating for now.

lmao so what is it, the CDC was manipulated by bad leadership or people pointing out glaring problems are really the crazy ones

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
Hashtag “believescience” is currently being wielded as a baton to pack teachers back into schools like it’s the Tokyo metro at rush hour.

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

Platystemon posted:

Hashtag “believescience” is currently being wielded as a baton to pack teachers back into schools like it’s the Tokyo metro at rush hour.

I looked up “#believescience teachers” and sorted by recent and top tweets that doesn’t seem to be the case.

That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


I get peoples skepticism and its valid. I also am not giving the CDC a pass on everything. Part of the reason I linked the stuff earlier though was also because it was being advocated by Megan who knows her poo poo. I was just getting pissy about painting the entire agency with the same brush since Ive had a lot of friends work there and am 1 degree separated from a lot of good people who work there now.

Anyways, good vibes and love to the CE thread folks, sorry if I am being an rear end

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

boop the snoot posted:

I looked up “#believescience teachers” and sorted by recent and top tweets that doesn’t seem to be the case.

I was using it rhetorically, but also LOL at relying on the bird site’s search.

https://twitter.com/sarahljaffe/status/1358786890334408705

The San Francisco Chronicle had a front page dedicated to manufacturing consent on the issue. The city is suing its own school district.

The Chicago Teachers Union just lost their struggle.

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

Platystemon posted:

I was using it rhetorically, but also LOL at relying on the bird site’s search.

https://twitter.com/sarahljaffe/status/1358786890334408705

The San Francisco Chronicle had a front page dedicated to manufacturing consent on the issue. The city is suing its own school district.

The Chicago Teachers Union just lost their struggle.



Do you read beyond headlines? Did the CDC say “open schools, no need to vax teachers” or was there more guidance attached that was left out of the headline?

Hint: this is also rhetorical. I don’t think schools should open but it’s disingenuous to say the CDC is pushing for schools to be opened without anything else attached to it. Instead of reading the news, go to the source directly and read the CDC guidance itself.

boop the snoot fucked around with this message at 22:38 on Feb 11, 2021

brains
May 12, 2004

boop the snoot posted:

That’s unfortunate because not believing scientists is a big part of what got us in this situation in the first place and that’s precisely what you’re advocating for now.

not quite. what i'm saying is that joe layperson has been listening to the CDC step on its on feet and give conflicting or outright bad information for a year straight, while medical professionals were forced to ignore its guidance at times because it was unsound. the CDC itself was part of what got us in this situation and exacerbated it. that doesn't mean ignore science, it means the CDC will not get a free pass on credibility from the general public, even for sound medical advice, because people are immediately skeptical of the source.

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

brains posted:

not quite. what i'm saying is that joe layperson has been listening to the CDC step on its on feet and give conflicting or outright bad information for a year straight, while medical professionals were forced to ignore its guidance at times because it was unsound. the CDC itself was part of what got us in this situation and exacerbated it. that doesn't mean ignore science, it means the CDC will not get a free pass on credibility from the general public, even for sound medical advice, because people are immediately skeptical of the source.

The CDC is full of scientists (whether CDC employees or contracts with other science companies) who now have leadership that lets them operate and saying be skeptical of them is saying be skeptical of science at this point.

Source: I work at the Department of Health. There’s been a MASSIVE culture shift over the last month (longer, really, but policy-wise).

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

boop the snoot posted:

Do you read beyond headlines? Did the CDC say “open schools, no need to vax teachers” or was there more guidance attached that was left out of the headline?

Hint: this is also rhetorical. I don’t think schools should open but it’s disingenuous to say the CDC is pushing for schools to be opened without anything else attached to it. Instead of reading the news, go to the source directly and read the CDC guidance itself.

If one reads the fine print is read, these people are not citing authority in an entirely honest manner, but to cut to the chase on that, if CDC doesn’t push back on it, that’s their problem.

Not that they were blameless to begin with. One of the pieces pundits most love to cite is this opinion (!) piece in JAMA.

Corresponding Author: Margaret A. Honein, PhD, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd, Atlanta, GA 30333 (mrh7@cdc.gov).

I should just quote this guy from the comments, because he’s more qualified than I am:

quote:

Stephen Friedman, MD, MPH

There is a dearth of evidence to conclude that transmission in schools does not pose a risk to teachers or to increased community spread. In the North Carolina study, identification of cases in schools was limited to those reported to the local dashboard rather than systematic testing of students and teachers. In the Wisconsin study, incidence in schools was compared to community incidence. Community incidence reflects COVID-19 in adults rather than in children. A more apt comparison would have been incidence in schools to age-specific incidence in the community.

Rather than deciding to reopen with in-person education based on limited information, there should be a coordinated effort to monitor transmission by systematically testing students and teachers in all grade levels in a sufficiently large sample, accompanied by thorough contact tracing. If local, state, and federal governments insist on reopening in the absence of this data, then they owe it to students, teachers, and the community to collect this data prospectively as schools open.

The clearest path to reopening schools, of course, is to preemptively vaccinate teachers.

Stephen Friedman, MD, MPH

I came to similar conclusions myself when I looked into it earlier this month. The studies cited are junk, period. The opinion piece has this line:

quote:

Similarly, in a report released by CDC on January 26, 2021, with data from 17 K-12 schools in rural Wisconsin with high mask adherence (4876 students and 654 staff), COVID-19 incidence was lower in schools than in the community.7 During 13 weeks in the fall of 2020, there were 191 COVID-19 cases in staff and students, with only 7 of these cases determined to result from in-school transmission.

So I went looking into this hoping to find out how many of those 191 cases were of unknown origin and thus while they were not attributed to in‐school transmission, it could not be ruled out.

The answer to that is that it’s unknowable because there is no public table of data. Friedman mentions the “local dashboard”, and the thing is that it was accessed months ago and all we have are the numbers that study’s authors wrote down from it. We cannot say what the breakdown of the remaining 184 cases is.

So that’s pretty bad, but it gets worse. Quoting the Wisconsin study:

quote:

COVID-19 cases in schools were reported by public health or school administration officials using deidentified data. Infection source and whether the infection was likely acquired in school or outside of school were determined by case investigations conducted by school administration and the public health department. When a school was alerted to a positive case in a student or staff member, school officials identified persons who had had close contact with the patient through interviews with the patient, parents, and school staff members. Close contact was defined as being within 6 feet for longer than 15 cumulative minutes during a 24-hour period.§ Patients’ close contacts were required to quarantine in their homes, and if they experienced symptoms during the quarantine period, they were further investigated to determine whether in-school spread might have occurred.

A kid could superspread the whole room with ćrosols, and it’s going to count as maybe four transmissions to the students at adjacent desks, and the other nineteen infected kids would have cases classified as “not attributable to schools” because they don’t meet they close contact definition.

So in this one classroom, only seventeen percent of cases are “determined to result from in-school transmission”.

The statistics only get more skewed if administrators cook the books and say “actually the children were seventy‐three inches apart” and/or the infected kids go on to infect a bunch of other kids in the hallways or in extracurricular activities but would never have been in a position to do so if they hadn’t first been infected in class.

The scenario has been set up in a way that guarantees that schools will appear blameless no matter how bad conditions are.

brains
May 12, 2004

boop the snoot posted:

The CDC is full of scientists (whether CDC employees or contracts with other science companies) who now have leadership that lets them operate and saying be skeptical of them is saying be skeptical of science at this point.

Source: I work at the Department of Health. There’s been a MASSIVE culture shift over the last month (longer, really, but policy-wise).

i'm glad the switch has flipped. but the public at large does not share the internal viewpoint that you have, and that's my point. you can't equate skepticism based on the CDC's prior actions over the last year with science denialism. the problem is with the source's credibility, not with what they are saying.

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

Platystemon posted:

If one reads the fine print is read, these people are not citing authority in an entirely honest manner, but to cut to the chase on that, if CDC doesn’t push back on it, that’s their problem.

Not that they were blameless to begin with. One of the pieces pundits most love to cite is this opinion (!) piece in JAMA.

Corresponding Author: Margaret A. Honein, PhD, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd, Atlanta, GA 30333 (mrh7@cdc.gov).

I should just quote this guy from the comments, because he’s more qualified than I am:


I came to similar conclusions myself when I looked into it earlier this month. The studies cited are junk, period. The opinion piece has this line:


So I went looking into this hoping to find out how many of those 191 cases were of unknown origin and thus while they were not attributed to in‐school transmission, it could not be ruled out.

The answer to that is that it’s unknowable because there is no public table of data. Friedman mentions the “local dashboard”, and the thing is that it was accessed months ago and all we have are the numbers that study’s authors wrote down from it. We cannot say what the breakdown of the remaining 184 cases is.

So that’s pretty bad, but it gets worse. Quoting the Wisconsin study:


A kid could superspread the whole room with ćrosols, and it’s going to count as maybe four transmissions to the students at adjacent desks, and the other nineteen infected kids would have cases classified as “not attributable to schools” because they don’t meet they close contact definition.

So in this one classroom, only seventeen percent of cases are “determined to result from in-school transmission”.

The statistics only get more skewed if administrators cook the books and say “actually the children were seventy‐three inches apart” and/or the infected kids go on to infect a bunch of other kids in the hallways or in extracurricular activities but would never have been in a position to do so if they hadn’t first been infected in class.

The scenario has been set up in a way that guarantees that schools will appear blameless no matter how bad conditions are.



I asked if you have read the actual CDC guidance. Not an opinion piece by someone at the CDC.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

boop the snoot posted:

I asked if you have read the actual CDC guidance. Not an opinion piece by someone at the CDC.

Actual CDC guidance that is bat poo poo: quarantine period is only ten days.

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boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

Platystemon posted:

Actual CDC guidance that is bat poo poo: quarantine period is only ten days.

False. CDC guidance is still 14 days. Local health officials have the option of ten days. Go read the guidance before you cite the guidance.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/quarantine.html

E: so the answer is no, you haven’t actually read the CDC guidance

boop the snoot fucked around with this message at 23:11 on Feb 11, 2021

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