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Communist Thoughts posted:Entering our second year of the plague and the gov is still floating "would it be bad if we just gave up and let the house burn down?" as a potential solution "Looks chaps, I know we absolutely hosed it last year and are now standing astride 100k+ graves...but what if, what if...we just carried on and changed nothing." "Oh bravo, excellent!" [e]:  VVV Pesky Splinter fucked around with this message at 13:41 on Feb 12, 2021 |
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Feb 12, 2021 13:35
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Pesky Splinter posted:"Looks chaps, I know we absolutely hosed it last year and are now standing astride 100k+ graves...but what if, what if...we just carried on and changed nothing." 
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Feb 12, 2021 13:40
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Guavanaut posted:Should the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling be boiled alive in a big pot of piss? while I think broadly speaking questioning your assumptions and reasoning and considering a broad range of options is good practice, the fact is we live in a world where you need to be careful speculating about certain things in public in case you provide ammunition to people advocating bad courses of action it's irresponsible to suggest that not boiling them alive in a pot of piss is a viable option
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Feb 12, 2021 13:41
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It doesn’t seem an outright unreasonable question to me. Once the vulnerable people are protected from covid isn’t it time to reassess whether the impact of lockdown (mental health, economic, education, etc) outweigh the impact of covid on the less vulnerable people? Am I missing something?
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Feb 12, 2021 13:48
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 Saw this on Reddit, I lolled a bit.
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Feb 12, 2021 13:49
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Dakha posted:It doesn’t seem an outright unreasonable question to me. Once the vulnerable people are protected from covid isn’t it time to reassess whether the impact of lockdown (mental health, economic, education, etc) outweigh the impact of covid on the less vulnerable people? leaving aside the fact younger people can still get seriously ill or die, the long covid, and the fact that none of the vaccines are 100% effective so you will still have a significant portion of the vulnerable population at high risk, the most obvious issue is the fact that with greater amounts of transmission there's more opportunities for the virus to mutate in ways that might cause further problems the answer to minimising harm from both the virus and lockdowns is still zero covid imho, even if the government's year of fuckups mean we've got a mountain to climb to get there
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Feb 12, 2021 13:56
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Hmm, could "a big wave of infection" actually be a good thing? I am very smart
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Feb 12, 2021 14:03
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It should be 'when', not should. Boris is looking forward to the day where he can proclaim everyone who is important is vaccinated, so get back to work, and then shut down all tracking and money to combat it.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:04
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It's hard to take this as anything other than them overtly trying to kill me, my partner, and my friends
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Feb 12, 2021 14:05
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plus, and this is something that happens every pandemic and has already happened this pandemic, even. while everything is closed there is an enormous demand - if 10% of the pubs opened they'd serve record business. problem with this demand is that it represents a minority - those who are not taking the restrictions as seriously or are not afraid of the virus. lets say they represent a third of the population - a third of the population over 10% of the pubs is a banner year. the majority of the population however, or at least a very large chunk, might go out and have a meal or two as a performative lockdown farewell or special occasion or something but will otherwise drastically change their behaviour - no one wants to go see sonic 2 at the cost of £11 and their lung function. this means that when everything opens you have a third of the population over all of the pubs, and everything catastrophically starts failing. the government wants this because it would mean they're not paying furlough or other financial support, but it pushes the hospitality sector from coma to death.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:05
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Love to turn the island into a viral petri dish because actually doing things to mitigate disaster was hard work and makes the economy number sad.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:05
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Doctor_Fruitbat posted:The Quest 2 vr stuff This looks cool and cheapish. But then I notice the cyber shoes (Pack Includes CYBERCHAIR and CYBERCARPET) and now I must have it. CoolCab posted:plus, and this is something that happens every pandemic and has already happened this pandemic, even. while everything is closed there is an enormous demand - if 10% of the pubs opened they'd serve record business. problem with this demand is that it represents a minority - those who are not taking the restrictions as seriously or are not afraid of the virus. lets say they represent a third of the population - a third of the population over 10% of the pubs is a banner year. I don't think any of this is right. NotJustANumber99 fucked around with this message at 14:08 on Feb 12, 2021 |
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Feb 12, 2021 14:06
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CoolCab posted:plus, and this is something that happens every pandemic and has already happened this pandemic, even. while everything is closed there is an enormous demand - if 10% of the pubs opened they'd serve record business. problem with this demand is that it represents a minority - those who are not taking the restrictions as seriously or are not afraid of the virus. lets say they represent a third of the population - a third of the population over 10% of the pubs is a banner year. it's going to be loving hilarious when everything opens and by pure freak probability no major covid variants of concern emerge, the vaccine remains effective, and then we all die of a now-airborne hyper-infectious mutant STD. Pesky Splinter posted:Love to turn the island into a viral petri dish because actually doing things to mitigate disaster was hard work and makes the economy number sad.* *does not make economy number sad
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Feb 12, 2021 14:09
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(Edit: this was addressed to XMNN) I’m not sure that covid to zero minimises lockdown harm though, quite the opposite? Whether lockdown harm is a reasonable trade off vs covid harm is a different (and totally reasonable) question though. Sounds like you’re saying you’d accept any amount of lockdown pain over a single additional covid death? Myself I’m in favour of a more balanced approach, e.g. let’s get a bit further down the list then consider opening up. I have a friend with MS who isn’t eligible for another couple of categories, I hope we don’t open up before they are protected. But I’m encouraged by the numbers coming out of Israel, sounds like maybe the NHS could handle some amount of covid if the majority of the population are safe. It’s how we live our lives with winter flu etc right? Dakha fucked around with this message at 14:16 on Feb 12, 2021 |
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Feb 12, 2021 14:12
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NotJustANumber99 posted:
it is - it's the justification for "eat out to help out" - the pubs and restaurants weren't closed but the government still needed stimulus to get butts in seats. similarly it has happened all over america where they're much more gunshy about state closures - thinks like cinemas shut due to economic pressure, not because they were concerned about safety.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:12
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Pesky Splinter posted:Love to turn the island into a viral petri dish because actually doing things to mitigate disaster was hard work and makes the economy number sad. but on the other hand, think of how low the unemployment rate will go when we kill all the poors
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Feb 12, 2021 14:12
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crispix posted:what bit are they off? I've got a bit of the yellow surround, some wheat hair and some eggshell face. My sister has a bit of eggshell nose that's still got egg on the other side - so disrespectful! Until we saw all the online stuff about this "floral display" it had never even occurred to us that Well Dressing is loving weird even when it's not... whatever this one was.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:16
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Spangly A posted:*does not make economy number sad Well yeah, it's just the justificiation that they'll use that goes hand in hand with the "National Credit Card" poo poo, when they're gearing up for Austerity 2: The Revenge. Spangly A posted:it's going to be loving hilarious when everything opens and by pure freak probability no major covid variants of concern emerge, the vaccine remains effective, and then we all die of a now-airborne hyper-infectious mutant STD. In a fit of irony, the English disease is going to kill us all. Convex posted:but on the other hand, think of how low the unemployment rate will go when we kill all the poors All time low unemployment, all time high gravedigger employment.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:19
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Dakha posted:(Edit: this was addressed to XMNN) I’m not sure that covid to zero minimises lockdown harm though, quite the opposite? I'm almost passed the point of caring personally, it's been a year and I'm just pretty loving sick of it all. I'd agree that we should start opening in a measured way once the most vulnerable are fully vaccinated, though, pending more data on long COVID. The thread does come off as a bit 'one COVID death is unacceptable and we must be in permanent lockdown until not a single bit of COVID exists in the world', I gotta admit.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:19
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Cool https://twitter.com/DanielZamoraV/status/1360203303557226500?s=19
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Feb 12, 2021 14:20
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and, like - it's horrible but none of this is new. lockdowns do not cause economic downturns, plagues do - you can demonstrate this trivially in this current pandemic by looking at places with effective lockdowns versus ineffective ones and contrasting their economic outcomes, but again, it's very old behaviour. how many people here took advantage of eat out to help out? how much of a contrast is that against if they'd held the scheme a year previous - you'd have queues outside every restaurant in the country. scared people do not spend - economic and health anxieties are insanely toxic to the hospitality industry.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:20
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Barry Foster posted:It's hard to take this as anything other than them overtly trying to kill me, my partner, and my friends I'm convinced that the government has only mustered up the pathetic effort it has because this is a global issue and every other country is showing us up. If the situation were isolated to the UK they absolutely would've allowed mass death on an even wider scale than they already have.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:21
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Jakabite posted:I'm almost passed the point of caring personally, it's been a year and I'm just pretty loving sick of it all. I'd agree that we should start opening in a measured way once the most vulnerable are fully vaccinated, though, pending more data on long COVID. The thread does come off as a bit 'one COVID death is unacceptable and we must be in permanent lockdown until not a single bit of COVID exists in the world', I gotta admit. There are other effective ways of surpressing the disease but our government appears fundamentally incapable of attempting them. It's easier to imagine lockdown going on indefinitely than it is test and trace actually working.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:22
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https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1360158159592169474?s=21 https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1360170898330972348?s=21 Note that Lee Harpin is the political editor of the Jewish Chronicle, and has been heavily involved in the Labour antisemitism business. It does look very much like they tried to derail the Forde Inquiry using a report to the ICO.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:22
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Jakabite posted:I'm almost passed the point of caring personally, it's been a year and I'm just pretty loving sick of it all. I'd agree that we should start opening in a measured way once the most vulnerable are fully vaccinated, though, pending more data on long COVID. The thread does come off as a bit 'one COVID death is unacceptable and we must be in permanent lockdown until not a single bit of COVID exists in the world', I gotta admit. stev posted:I'm convinced that the government has only mustered up the pathetic effort it has because this is a global issue and every other country is showing us up. If the situation were isolated to the UK they absolutely would've allowed mass death on an even wider scale than they already have.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:25
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Dakha posted:It doesn’t seem an outright unreasonable question to me. Once the vulnerable people are protected from covid isn’t it time to reassess whether the impact of lockdown (mental health, economic, education, etc) outweigh the impact of covid on the less vulnerable people? More infections means more mutations, its extremely, extremely dangerous to be playing with a plague like that. E I do agree that some posters are too cautious and basically sunk cost fallacy is making people want to justify locking down forever, but the other side is a lot of magical thinking where we can just take this on the chin. Which is a complete misunderstanding of plagues and how they work. Our current global strategy basically requires that we do not just open things back up coz that means new variants and that means the vaccine may go out the window or we end up with covid 22 making covid 19 look like a cold. (viruses in general should evolve to be less lethal but that does not mean they can't do the opposite and we roll the dice several billion times each time there's a new host) Communist Thoughts fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Feb 12, 2021 |
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Feb 12, 2021 14:26
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CoolCab posted:plus, and this is something that happens every pandemic and has already happened this pandemic, even. while everything is closed there is an enormous demand - if 10% of the pubs opened they'd serve record business. problem with this demand is that it represents a minority - those who are not taking the restrictions as seriously or are not afraid of the virus. lets say they represent a third of the population - a third of the population over 10% of the pubs is a banner year. The bolded part especially - they're already floating the idea of "what about if pubs open but couldn't serve alcohol" which is a very transparent skip away from "well, you've chosen not to open even though you're allowed, so no furlough payable to you!"
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Feb 12, 2021 14:31
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I absolutely don't want lockdowns to go on forever, I just think that the repeated pattern of opening up and allowing exponential spread of the virus has lead to more time spent in lockdown than actually getting transmission to the point where a decent test and trace system and some light restrictions might have done the first, second and, at this rate, third time like we'll still have the majority of the adult population unvaccinated by the 8th of march or whenever they're looking at opening schools I believe the current R is estimated at 0.7-1.0 and that schools are anything from 0.2-0.5 increase so we'll be dangerously close to being back at exponential growth just from a couple of restrictions being lifted which will inevitably lead to millions of cases and tens or hundreds of thousands of bad health outcomes and possibly lockdown MK4 by the summer like maybe this time will be the time that "some covid" works out as a strategy but I personally wouldn't bet on it e: like I hate the lockdown, I live on my own and haven't seen most of my friends in a year and I'd just like to get back to actual normal as soon as possible, but messing around trying to finesse hospitalisation rates to avoid overtopping ICU capacities is a stupid game that has cost a hundred thousand lives and a year of everyone's lives and I don't trust the government to somehow get it right this time XMNN fucked around with this message at 14:37 on Feb 12, 2021 |
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Feb 12, 2021 14:34
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getting some extremely fashy vibes from France recently, moreso than usual
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Feb 12, 2021 14:38
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Convex posted:getting some extremely fashy vibes from France recently, moreso than usual Le Pen is literal fash, and that debate has her coming down on the side of civil liberties.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:40
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XMNN posted:I absolutely don't want lockdowns to go on forever, I just think that the repeated pattern of opening up and allowing exponential spread of the virus has lead to more time spent in lockdown than actually getting transmission to the point where a decent test and trace system and some light restrictions might have done the first, second and, at this rate, third time  But yeah lockdowns are the last realistic option and it says a lot that we keep running headfirst into them because nobody did anything else  Darth Walrus posted:Le Pen is literal fash, and that debate has her coming down on the side of civil liberties. Turns out Turning Point was right all along (while being completely loving wrong).
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Feb 12, 2021 14:45
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To be clear my preferences are, in order: * no covid * an early, effective lockdown like NZ * vaccinating the population and living with some amount of covid a la winter flu * lockdown until zero domestically, indefinite closed borders Sadly the first two are off the table now, so no sense wishing for them. And then it becomes a question of trade offs. As someone who is relatively unaffected by lockdown, WFH is ok, my company is doing fine, my toddler is happy at nursery, I can see enough suffering and misery (hell, even in the last few pages of this thread) for me to conclude that the third is better than the fourth. I don’t disagree that mutations etc make this a choice between bad options but it just feels like that’s where we are. I hope I’m wrong on this.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:45
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A zero covid strategy lockdown will be shorter because unsafe things are closed rather than the government leaving businesses open to spread the virus and also fail to make money at the same time. A proper quarantine for foreign travel and test and trace system nationally prevents large-scale reoccurance meaning local lock downs actually stop the spread rather than just meaning there's a national lockdown coming in the next two months. Once the community spread is near 0 and being caught quickly then domestically we can live pretty much without additional restrictions as the risks are so low and monitored. It's literally better by all standards unless you think making the government responsible for doing things is the ultimate evil. namesake fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Feb 12, 2021 |
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Feb 12, 2021 14:48
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Lots of good points being made here. I live alone too and am utterly lonely and sick of it all and just want things to be normal again. But I wouldn't want everything to open up too early and trigger off a rise that leads to yet another lockdown later on; I really want this to be the last one. But I'm also worried that the lockdown, which began as a one-off emergency measure, is becoming worryingly normalised and could end up as a semi-permanent thing. And you'd think that rolling out the vaccines like we have done would allow everything to open back up. But apparently, it doesn't. Or, it might do? Every news story I see tells me something different. I hate all this and I think I'm going to get drunk.
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Feb 12, 2021 14:51
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The other trouble with covid to zero is that closing the borders is much harder for the UK than Australia or NZ. NZ quarantine capacity is ~250 rooms per 14 days and the current wait for a slot is ~5 months. Heathrow had 15,000 travellers per hour. How would that work long term? It’s tricky for Australia and NZ and they’re not nearly as connected as we are.
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Feb 12, 2021 15:00
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That's why South East Asia is probably the better place to look, in terms of population, density, and border connectivity.
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Feb 12, 2021 15:02
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Pistol_Pete posted:I hate all this and I think I'm going to get drunk.  & also there's a pandemic
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Feb 12, 2021 15:03
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Pesky Splinter posted:"Looks chaps, I know we absolutely hosed it last year and are now standing astride 100k+ graves...but what if, what if...we just carried on and changed nothing." Why are you ascribing such levels of competence to the Tories? They're not wanting to carry on with nothing changed; they want to make things worse.
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Feb 12, 2021 15:03
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the lockdowns will continue until the r number improves 
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Feb 12, 2021 15:04
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Dig for Victory veg challenge of the week: I have 3 bulbs of fennel. What the gently caress do I do with 3 bulbs of fennel?
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