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Bobstar posted:I'm not sure about this. I think any hint of a further referendum on anything would have been angrily cast as "the elites asking over and over until we vote right", which is a reputation EU-related referenda had before Brexit was a thing. It was cast as "the elites asking over and over until we vote right", and for a sizable chunk of Remain At All Costs folk the accusation was true anyway. The Remain movement, if it had any form of introspection or scrutiny, could have distilled the various flavours of Remain being thrown about down to the most viable option and then pushed for it hard and worked to persuade people. Instead, they had no coherent plan to argue for while still exposing themselves to exactly this kind of counter from the Brexit side. Which again, another sizable chunk did not mind in the slightest because Remain was only useful to them as a wedge to drive against Corbyn and the left. But I still think there was room for a political challenge of some form. The vote was only 51.8% after all, and even Farage was saying that a margin so narrow could never be the end of the argument right up until he realised his side was winning rather than losing. But that was all forgotten about and there was never any serious challenge possible because Remain didn't even know what Remain meant.
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Feb 17, 2021 20:15
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Gonzo McFee posted:Three, but they can't enforce it unless the eviction ban comes off so basically so long as Covid is here it's a polite request. My "Our suspension of the election process has nothing to do with the candidates support for Corbyn" tshirt has a lot of people asking questions already answered by the tshirt.
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Feb 17, 2021 20:16
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radmonger posted:Yes, but it doesn’t need to. It merely needs to stop people believing those lies. Yeah but there's bullshit asymmetry at play too. It takes more effort to disprove a lie than it does to say a lie. So you just keep on lying and lying and the opposition can't keep up with it. Plus you have the combined might of the entirety of the British media to make whatever lie they want into the accepted truth.
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Feb 17, 2021 20:17
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WhatEvil posted:Last time I think it was a urinary infection and they did say, but I think maybe they only confirmed that afterwards? Super old people get UTIs constantly. Especially when your pipe game is as strong as Big Phil's
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Feb 17, 2021 20:17
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radmonger posted:Yes, but it doesn’t need to. It merely needs to stop people believing those lies. I get your point about Hillsborough, but this isn't one of those lies. Everyone concerned knew that was a lie to start with. It was them being lied about, and their dead friends and family. Lies about Corbyn don't work in the same way. In fact, it's the opposite: the more often the lie gets repeated, the more true it becomes. A better analogy for forcing the Tories to lie about Corbyn would be, well, all the actual lies people have been telling about Corbyn. Take antisemitism, for instance. Most of the accusations are frankly ridiculous, but it doesn't matter, because at a point, all people know is that they keep hearing this guy's an antisemite, no smoke without fire &c. The Hillsborough effect would only come into effect wrt the left who are being smeared, who will definitely not be forgetting how they've been treated. Another key difference is (as I pointed out earlier) there's actually a factual basis for arguing Corbyn to be either a eurosceptic or anti-Brexit, because as a nuanced, realistic opinion-haver he is literally (and demonstrably) both of those things.
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Feb 17, 2021 20:20
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Failed Imagineer posted:Super old people get UTIs constantly. Especially when your pipe game is as strong as Big Phil's
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Feb 17, 2021 20:23
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Discussion of what Corbyn should or shouldn't have done is absolutely pointless, because whatever he did would have been misrepresented by two seperate hostile wings of the press. The straight up right wing rags like the Sun / Mail / Spectator, and the centrist rags who thought they could be clever and push people toward the Lib Dems. We can argue what he should have done but you all know if he'd gone full remain, full leave, or come up with an absolute genius position none of us were able to, the press would still have monstered that position into oblivion.
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Feb 17, 2021 20:26
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Scikar posted:there was never any serious challenge possible because Remain didn't even know what Remain meant. Unfortunately what Remain meant was shut up and don't change anything, which was not particularly convincing to people who DID think that things needed to change. There are of course some real perks to being able to freely travel, work and ship stuff easily across many different countries, but when your entire world is the town you grew up in and you're constantly told that the reason everything is getting shitter is easy access to your country by foreigners, being smugly told that the pound has dropped against the euro by 3.2% after May's latest speech might as well be loving moonspeak for all that it will convince you of your folly.
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Feb 17, 2021 20:27
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feedmegin posted:How're you getting 'three months' from 'For notices served between 29 August 2020 and 31 March 2021 inclusive of, the minimum notice period is six months, unless exceptions apply (see below)' ? I dunno It's Scotland it might be different. Tesseraction posted:As a precaution he's being rested six feet under soil. This is why the rich live forever though. You go to the hospital as a precaution it's bed blocking and you die at home, he gets a sniffle and is hooked up to a ten year old's blood supply within the same hour.
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Feb 17, 2021 20:27
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That's why you have to celebrate the little wins. https://twitter.com/kittynouveau/status/1362107163796209664
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Feb 17, 2021 20:32
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Josef bugman posted:Not really. You've said that "my take is we have an A/B here, within two years of one another, with the exact same contextual participants." We didn't have the same contextual participants. We had similar participants, but not the same ones. And I am very sorry but I still don't follow you. You appear to be saying both that "We lost because of Brexit party in the North taking votes" and then saying that "Nothing differed between the two elections". if it was some other factor i would need a very compelling narrative to express why that was such a significant variation between leave and remain seats - when i say "A/B", specifically what i am saying is that we changed one factor and achieved radically different results which strongly implies that factor was deciding. quote:The only way you can prove something true is to have it happen. Your idea, because it doesn't rely on observing things but exists as a potential, is much more believable to yourself. It's why lots of people think that "Brexit would have been great IF". It's based on going "this is how it could have been" and then trying to be much more sure about it because you don't actually get to test it's efficacy. okay, motivated reasoning is an interesting point to raise here. here is a counternarrative - i have provided now ample examples of what i am talking about, demonstrating with statistics the things i am saying are defensible. i think i would need a pretty compelling argument as to what happened in, say, bolstover to counter what i have highlit here - if there was some other factor i was missing to explain that you'd like to elucidate i invite you. but i'm not getting that - instead I'm getting back "well, you don't know for sure!" or "you can't prove that!" and i'm sorry, i'm also detecting some motivation in your reasoning here. we build narratives around elections to quantify actions and see their consequences - unsurprisingly, given the radical U-turn of his previous personal policy, kier starmer appears to agree that remain was politically toxic. further, i think we can all identify the enormous success of leave and leave parties in that same election. but we can't apply that to our own behaviour? why?
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Feb 17, 2021 20:36
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with the benefit of hindsight, leave remain to the SNP and lib dems. lib dem surging in the cities would mean the tories have a reasonable metropolitan challenger and over the country tory/lib dem seats would have flipped, not labour/tory. i mean you'd have the press crucifying us for it and an entire insurrectionary membership but we always had the former and starmer is surviving the latter entirely fine  e: but then, that's applying the real magic of hindsight where you can articulate a mistake without needing to outline why the mistake was made, what other choices were available and when and how action would address it,. CoolCab fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Feb 17, 2021 |
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Feb 17, 2021 20:47
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CoolCab posted:with the benefit of hindsight, leave remain to the SNP and lib dems. lib dem surging in the cities would mean the tories have a reasonable metropolitan challenger and over the country tory/lib dem seats would have flipped, not labour/tory. i mean you'd have the press crucifying us for it and an entire insurrectionary membership but we always had the former and starmer is surviving the latter entirely fine There's very, very few urban seats where the Lib Dems are challenging the Tories, and considerably more where they'd have taken enough from Lexit Labour to let the Tories in. Apologies if the point has already been made because I've been busy today and have just skimmed, but the fundamental problem is that the melts had been saying "What are you gonna do, vote Tory?" to non-London for more than a generation. Brexit wasn't the straw that broke the camels back, it just slightly accelerated a process that had been going on since the late 80s, and the 2019 election was a political Kobayashi Maru for Labour no matter what they did. Even the probably-best needle they could have threaded of running on a clear soft Brexit platform would have still lost them a big chunk of seats (which would of course then be used by both the Blairites and a huge proportion of this thread as a stick to beat them with). e: The (other) fundamental problem is that Labour were fighting to keep/gain Remain seats, and PMC noise machines apart, Remain voters were much less likely to flip than Leave ones after two years of PMC noise machines, meaning they were effectively writing off 400 seats. goddamnedtwisto fucked around with this message at 21:03 on Feb 17, 2021 |
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Feb 17, 2021 20:58
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goddamnedtwisto posted:There's very, very few urban seats where the Lib Dems are challenging the Tories, and considerably more where they'd have taken enough from Lexit Labour to let the Tories in. it's hard, and i was there adding my voice at the time - identifying it was clearly a mistake but unable to articulate a better path through it. much like "we should have purged", it can be trivially true when talking about corbynism as a whole, but when and how become much more complex questions.
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Feb 17, 2021 21:03
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goddamnedtwisto posted:the 2019 election was a political Kobayashi Maru for Labour  goddamnedtwisto posted:PMC noise machines
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Feb 17, 2021 21:11
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CoolCab posted:
You may well have done so, but all you have actually posted is ‘statistics says I am right; people who disagree with me are disagreeing with SCIENCE’. In reality Labour lost essentially all Leave seats, and they did not win even anything near all Remain seats. So a policy of being unambiguously remain could not have been worse, and may well have been better. It is possible to imagine such a policy; one was in fact narrowly voted down in conference by Corbyn loyalists, with a certain amount of procedural controversy. Several people reacted at the time with ‘ok, that’s the next election lost, then’. It seems less possible to imagine a leave policy that out-Brexited Boris + Farage while being able to fill out a full shadow cabinet of Labour MPs.
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Feb 17, 2021 21:12
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Ultimately a massive chunk of supposedly progressive figures literally consider anyone outside of Zone 2 or earning less than 50k a year to not actually be fully human. This is how they're able to, with much furrowing of brows, talk about the need to cut benefits. The completely abstract concept of "balancing the books" is more important to them than the extremely concrete example of people dying years before their time, not because they believe their own poo poo about appearing responsible or the need for a strong economy or whatever bullshit they think will wash the blood from their hands, or even (mostly) from their own personal interest in not seeing some of their wealth being redistributed, but because all of the "real people" - who must be smarter and more intelligent because they go to the same book launches - believe this too. It's a lot more naked when you get onto foreigners of course, Blair-shaggers will straight up say that the Iraq War is not only balanced, but washed away, by Sure Start and a load of new hospitals. This is the real reason why the greatest brains a PPE degree can provide can come up with nothing more solid to recapture the Red Wall than twiddling the racist dial. They think that the people of Bolsover are Omegas who only respond to bright colourful flags. I guarantee, if the proposed policy blitz ever happens, that the only things that appeal to anyone who hasn't eaten a fusion cuisine in the last six months will be not-very-carefully-veiled promises to send 'em back where they come from and maybe something about loans to help them set up beauty parlours or something.
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Feb 17, 2021 21:19
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radmonger posted:You may well have done so, but all you have actually posted is ‘statistics says I am right; people who disagree with me are disagreeing with SCIENCE’. no it's an invitation to provide comparable evidence? we can demonstrate things that did not have an impact fairly trivially: the 2019 election was lost because corbyn had a beard. a counter to that narrative would be, he also had a beard in 2017, where he performed better - subsequently we can identify his beard probably did not have an impact. it is my narrative that the single biggest decider in us losing 52 - more than a quarter - of our total seats was because we changed our brexit policy to fly against what those 52 seats voted for. i can, and have, articulated this with anecdotes and backed up my anecdotes with evidence suggesting my narrative is true. if you have a counter narrative i am all ears. quote:
...pardon? we lost two remain seats. we should be giving up 52 to gain 2? what? and i need a source on "Corbyn loyalists" narrowly voting down a compromise position please.
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Feb 17, 2021 21:21
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Guavanaut posted:Is that like a Maru Mari or is it a type of sushi? Wait, was the Maru Mari named after a type of sushi? It's a Star Trek reference; a training simulation presenting an unwinnable scenario, designed to test how a captain reacts to certain failure.
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Feb 17, 2021 21:22
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Ultimately a massive chunk of supposedly progressive figures literally consider anyone outside of Zone 2 or earning less than 50k a year to not actually be fully human. This is how they're able to, with much furrowing of brows, talk about the need to cut benefits. The completely abstract concept of "balancing the books" is more important to them than the extremely concrete example of people dying years before their time, not because they believe their own poo poo about appearing responsible or the need for a strong economy or whatever bullshit they think will wash the blood from their hands, or even (mostly) from their own personal interest in not seeing some of their wealth being redistributed, but because all of the "real people" - who must be smarter and more intelligent because they go to the same book launches - believe this too. my own observation is that people who more or less did not give one hot poo poo about the EU and who voted entirely on spite, or because the redtops told them to, even those who expressed remorse over their leave vote were still infuriated by policy that would negate it - even if they would negate it themselves. people genuinely understate the extent to which people consider things they have voted for sarcosanct and infinitely defensible on principle entirely divorced from the context of that specific vote.
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Feb 17, 2021 21:26
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CoolCab posted:my own observation is that people who more or less did not give one hot poo poo about the EU and who voted entirely on spite, or because the redtops told them to, even those who expressed remorse over their leave vote were still infuriated by policy that would negate it - even if they would negate it themselves. people genuinely understate the extent to which people consider things they have voted for sarcosanct and infinitely defensible on principle entirely divorced from the context of that specific vote. Absolutely agree. Telling 52% of the population "Hey, you know that thing you voted for? gently caress you" isn't going to win many friends, especially for those outside London who feel with some justification they've not had a meaningful effect on the direction of the country since the mid 80s.
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Feb 17, 2021 21:35
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Borrovan posted:Ms A, it sucks that this is terf island but I'm glad that you are from here because it means you hang out with us, your posting pals, who respect your gender identity unconditionally & enjoy your company That's very kind of you to say, but please don't feel the need to pretend I am a good poster just because I am trans, I can be - and am - an extremely bad poster whilst still being a trans girl! 
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Feb 17, 2021 21:41
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CoolCab you never answered my point about how, if Brexit is the key point to win back the "red wall", why - Labour did badly in these areas in the 2019 Euros and locals despite still having a soft brexit stance - Why did Labour lose multiple of these seats in the 2017 general election when soft brexit was the stance - Why brexit is the deciding factor here when we can see Labour vote share dropping in the North, Midlands, Wales and Scotland since 1997 with the sole exception of 2017 To my mind brexit is much more of an indication of certain voters (read: old white men in ex-industrial towns) moving away from Labour for a variety of reasons, most notably that as homeowners and pensioners their economic well-being in tied up in high asset prices which the Tories are much better at providing. Jeremy Corbyn could have offered the hardest brexit ever and while you probably would have won some people back you're fighting against tide decades in the making, of which brexit is just one part.
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Feb 17, 2021 21:46
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Convex posted:It's a Star Trek reference; a training simulation presenting an unwinnable scenario, designed to test how a captain reacts to certain failure.  goddamnedtwisto posted:those outside London who feel with some justification they've not had a meaningful effect on the direction of the country since the mid 80s. Other than by scrapping Trident 800 feet above Rupert Murdoch, Paul Dacre, and the entire rest of the British press, which I'm not opposed to but might have logistical barriers.
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Feb 17, 2021 21:55
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MikeCrotch posted:CoolCab you never answered my point about how, if Brexit is the key point to win back the "red wall", why wanna be clear here, never said that. brexit was the key point that lost it but that's not the same thing. quote:- Labour did badly in these areas in the 2019 Euros and locals despite still having a soft brexit stance quote:- Why did Labour lose multiple of these seats in the 2017 general election when soft brexit was the stance i think you kind of answered your question here? pro-brexit voters were willing to tolerate labour so long as it wasn't overriding their vote - soft brexit would have been (and, was)the best tactical move to take because it prevented them from mobilizing significantly - that's not to say they didn't, and to a pretty significant degree, just that it wasn't enough in 17 and was in 19. i have absolutely no illusions about labour becoming a leave party and i don't think the electorate shared them at any point - but it turns out there were consequences for extending that all the way to "is a remain party" or "is a party against the referendum" - that last one was the death knell. quote:- Why brexit is the deciding factor here when we can see Labour vote share dropping in the North, Midlands, Wales and Scotland since 1997 with the sole exception of 2017 quote:To my mind brexit is much more of an indication of certain voters (read: old white men in ex-industrial towns) moving away from Labour for a variety of reasons, most notably that as homeowners and pensioners their economic well-being in tied up in high asset prices which the Tories are much better at providing. Jeremy Corbyn could have offered the hardest brexit ever and while you probably would have won some people back you're fighting against tide decades in the making, of which brexit is just one part. not everyone in these areas voted leave either - i am, once again, going to stress that 16 point labour->conservative swing in just two short years - and only in strong leave seats. out of 100 people 16 of them in these areas made that choice, suddenly, within 2 years of making another - unless there was a sudden wave of retirements or home purchases i do not think your conclusions are adequate to explain the phenomena.
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Feb 17, 2021 22:01
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Borrovan posted:It never stopped this, either. This actually brings up an interesting point about how things become the accepted truth, too. The papers spent a couple of years screaming at the top of their lungs that Corbyn was an antisemite. Then YouGov did a poll showing that the public thought that Corbyn was an antisemite. Then all the very serious sensible blue-tick journalists said "AHA! PROOF! If Jeremy Corbyn isn't an antisemite then why do people think he is?!?".
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Feb 17, 2021 22:18
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MikeCrotch posted:CoolCab you never answered my point about how, if Brexit is the key point to win back the "red wall", why Because the Tories are and always were the Party of Brexit and anything they "No True Brexit"ed Labour out of the way and it didn't matter what Labour did, because the combined might of a Tory press and BBC and a bunch of self-interested centrist pricks made it so. See my post a couple of pages ago. Every Brexit position had Labour hosed to some degree or other. Support it? Well you can't be trusted because Corbyn campaigned against it. Don't support it? WILL OF THE PEOPLE!!! Some kind of weird superposition of the two? Nope. Only the Tories want to do a TRUE BREXIT and carry out the CAST IRON WILL OF THE BRITISH PEOPLE (which is whatever we tell you it is).
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Feb 17, 2021 22:23
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CoolCab posted:
Yes, the one thing we know for sure is that the actual policy that Corbyn/Momemtum won a bitter factional fight to impose lost those votes. It seems likely is that there was a better policy and message that would have performed better. ‘Complicated, stupid and appeals to nobody’ is not a hard bar to clear. What we don’t know, without at least spreadsheet, full-scale model or ideally a Tardis, is whether a different policy would have actually won. For that question, talking about seats is, except for the careers of individual MPs, irrelevant. If you are over 10% behind in vote share, you are going to lose. You would need more gerrymandering than Arkansas and Ulster put together to save you. And Labour were polling at below 20% the last time they had a full Soft Brexit stance; that was always the least popular of the three options. The only possible route to victory was full Remain, specially basing the election on ending the Brexit process by a one-clause bill within 10 days of taking power. If anything was going to change anyone’s mind, it was the question ‘10 days or 10 years?’
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Feb 17, 2021 22:33
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WhatEvil posted:Because the Tories are and always were the Party of Brexit and anything they "No True Brexit"ed Labour out of the way and it didn't matter what Labour did, because the combined might of a Tory press and BBC and a bunch of self-interested centrist pricks made it so. See my post a couple of pages ago. Every Brexit position had Labour hosed to some degree or other. This is, in my view, the fundamental issue with Labour over the last 5-6 years. They couldn't reconcile their position in the referendum with the leadership with the popularity of Brexit at the time, it was a contradiction for Labour to say Corbyn would deliver the Brexit "the people" wanted when he (and the rest of the leadership) campaigned against it. Arguably the only way Labour could have achieved success, all other things being equal, is if they had supported/not actively campaigned for Brexit. They then could have fought subsequent elections on an equal footing with the Tories and made it about the policies of a post-Brexit Britain instead (which Labour under Corbyn were largely stronger on). This would have been a fantasy world where Britain was still hosed though.
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Feb 17, 2021 22:49
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Ms Adequate posted:I can be - and am - an extremely bad poster 
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Feb 17, 2021 22:50
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Borrovan posted:Nah you're sound 
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Feb 17, 2021 23:06
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whoa now whoa pal, hold up - as i politely asked, please cite the extremely existent source for radmonger posted:
which you have repeated - you wouldn't want people to think you talk poo poo now would you? and, again, we lost sixteen points in key marginals for going as remain as we did representing 87 percent of our total lost seats. i am extremely curious how Remain Harder could possibly have helped in what passes as your reasoning?
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Feb 17, 2021 23:11
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everyone knows the important part of elections isn't winning seats, it's declaring brexit cancelled
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Feb 17, 2021 23:24
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MikeCrotch posted:
Yeah it's this. Notice how boomers (yeah I know, lazy but eh it correlates with class enough for me) are burning poo poo down all over the world - well the US? Brexit is our own version of this poo poo.
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Feb 17, 2021 23:28
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WhatEvil posted:This actually brings up an interesting point about how things become the accepted truth, too. The tricksy part is that many Jews did genuinely feel very worried by all this, to the point where some thought Corbyn would put them in camps. But then if you were to suggest that their concerns might not be entirely reasonable or realistic, you would be denying their own experience, and that in itself would be antisemitic. So, the only way for Corbyn to not be antisemitic is to accept he is antisemitic. Checkmate, I think. It's a bit similar with other minorities, we should listen to them if they have these concerns except nope we're constantly told it's woke lefty nonsense to give a drat about them
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Feb 17, 2021 23:44
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I mean the correct analogy to Jewish people thinking Corbyn was going to put them in camps is to TERF bs, if they are spouting it they are either spreading lies and hatred maliciously or are so catastrophically ill-informed that they may as well be doing it maliciously
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Feb 18, 2021 00:04
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radmonger posted:For that question, talking about seats is, except for the careers of individual MPs, irrelevant. Mate. We live under FPTP. You are transparently talking poo poo here. Full Remain loses us those Midlands seats even more. Which seats do you think we gain over 2017 to compensate? It'll need to be quite a lot, mind.
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Feb 18, 2021 00:05
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feedmegin posted:Mate. We live under FPTP. You are transparently talking poo poo here. Full Remain loses us those Midlands seats even more. Which seats do you think we gain over 2017 to compensate? It'll need to be quite a lot, mind. well i heard in nandos that jeremy corbyn loyalists seized control of the conference with rifles and demanded we only go this remain and no farther in order to throw the election, so
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Feb 18, 2021 00:07
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https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1362169661140402176?s=19 I can hear the disillusioned voters stampeding back to Labour... Oh, no, wait. It's a massive fart.
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Feb 18, 2021 00:25
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finally, just the sort of fiddling around the edges of the crumbling capitalist system i’ve been waiting for
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Feb 18, 2021 00:33
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