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Personally, I blame the current president unless I voted for him. Then it's the fault of the other party's congress members.
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Feb 23, 2021 05:52
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If I vote for a Communist president and they and their party get elected, will that affect the stock market?
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Feb 23, 2021 07:32
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punk rebel ecks posted:If I vote for a Communist president and they and their party get elected, will that affect the stock market? No, all cultures and ideologies shamelessly pump number.
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Feb 23, 2021 07:56
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punk rebel ecks posted:If I vote for a Communist president and they and their party get elected, will that affect the stock market? lol
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Feb 23, 2021 07:58
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Pump number? I barely know 'er!
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Feb 23, 2021 08:04
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Watching crypto take a giant massive dump in real time is pretty fun, glad I only have ~10% of my portfolio in coins
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Feb 23, 2021 09:28
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I know AH can be volatile but... oof
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Feb 23, 2021 11:16
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somebody please fix the stock market tia
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Feb 23, 2021 11:23
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Mr. Pizza posted:somebody please fix the stock market tia  Seems to be doing a good job of that on its own.
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Feb 23, 2021 11:29
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Just a normal rotation from Bitcoin into lumber like we’ve seen going back decades. Tea leaves: 3850 /ES is the important level, if cash closes below that check DIX/GEX. Bullish probably bounce and the correction’s over, bearish target index shorts at Jan 28 levels. /NQ already about there, /ES has a way to go, RUT has a lot further.
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Feb 23, 2021 11:37
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Nasdaq futures from +0.7% to -2.0% in the last 2.5 hours. NQ was down a lot more than ES yesterday so we can definitely see some "tech into value" rotation, if not exactly Bitcoin into lumber, but still everything is definitely about to go down. As it should, it's a huge speculation bubble and we talked about how this was going to happen in April or May.
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Feb 23, 2021 11:40
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pretty new to IPOs, if you're a nobody on the other side of the country with some brokerage account as opposed to some dude syphoning illegal cable from the NYSE next door, how much of a price jump can you see from when it goes live and when you buy in? Looking at something like Roblox as an example
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Feb 23, 2021 11:50
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Alan Smithee posted:pretty new to IPOs, if you're a nobody on the other side of the country with some brokerage account as opposed to some dude syphoning illegal cable from the NYSE next door, how much of a price jump can you see from when it goes live and when you buy in? You know, fact that the ticker is rblx and not rbux is such a missed opportunity.
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Feb 23, 2021 11:53
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Alan Smithee posted:pretty new to IPOs, if you're a nobody on the other side of the country with some brokerage account as opposed to some dude syphoning illegal cable from the NYSE next door, how much of a price jump can you see from when it goes live and when you buy in? Can be big. Can be smoll. Up or down.
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Feb 23, 2021 11:54
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pmchem posted:what do you guys think about $LULU? it's way off its 2020 highs and seems like it's coming to an interesting buy range 75 times P/E is an interesting buy range? 
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Feb 23, 2021 11:56
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Feb 23, 2021 11:57
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Oman, famously the finance capital of the world.
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Feb 23, 2021 12:19
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I'm ready for the rotation trade to keep on keepin' on today baby Sell your bitcoins CCIV and TSLA and buy some airlines 
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Feb 23, 2021 12:45
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I think this is Elon protesting number going down by way of scifi references. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364180853866131456
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Feb 23, 2021 12:55
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Ola posted:I think this is Elon protesting number going down by way of scifi references. Lol it's 4 a.m in california get some loving sleep elon
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Feb 23, 2021 13:08
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Executed my first early-hours trade ever, whew glad to get off the CCIV train before it dips below my entry point. Selling half early to lock in profits was the right move, in this case. My face last night when I saw the merger was official, followed by learning the price had tanked after-hours because value of the public shares wasn't the moonlaunch people were wanting... We'll see if Lucid can get that Arizona plant hopping and sell off enough EVs and carbon credits to rival Tesla, yeah?
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Feb 23, 2021 13:35
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Lol at everything I see being red except loving GME
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Feb 23, 2021 13:46
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Space Fish posted:Executed my first early-hours trade ever, whew glad to get off the CCIV train before it dips below my entry point. Selling half early to lock in profits was the right move, in this case. My face last night when I saw the merger was official, followed by learning the price had tanked after-hours because value of the public shares wasn't the moonlaunch people were wanting... Looks like we got a textbook example of "buy the rumour, sell the news". Still suffering from FOMO PTSD from not holding on to my CCIV from 22-ish to 27-ish or whatever it was.
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Feb 23, 2021 13:56
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I think that two Fidelity ETFs deserve more attention. Each is under 5 years old with an ER of 0.29%, each had a regularly scheduled rebalance just a day ago (so it's a good time to evaluate holdings), and each makes novel contributions to the factor ETF space. 1. FCPI, Fidelity Stocks for Inflation ETF: https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/snapshot.jhtml?symbols=FCPI Methodology here: https://research2.fidelity.com/pi/C...Methodology.pdf Described on page 5 of the methods doc, the ETF tracks an index that screens for value, quality, and momentum of stocks (a set of 11 total metrics, which I like for inflation protection due to the emphasis on free cash flow). However, it also slightly biases sector weights (5% each) depending on historical correlation of sector performance with inflation. So you get more weight on commodities-centric stocks, fewer tech and consumer discretionary stocks, etc (see page 7 of methods). Its performance in the past year hasn't been amazing (it has been like VTV), but, inflation concerns did not really ramp up until very recently. Also, the ETF index was reconstituted effective Monday, February 22 (see methods). So if it's going to outperform a total market ETF, it's set up for it right now. This is a small ETF by AUM and volume, so keep an eye on bid/ask spreads if you're dipping into it, but man, super appealing right now! Having a look inside, you need to examine the daily holdings document since it was rebalanced more recently than the end-of-January summary holdings. That's here: http://fundresearch.fidelity.com/pr...USIP&critical=N . Top 10 holdings currently include: AAPL, MSFT, EQT, WMB, EXP, NEM, CC, PG, GOOGL, PM. Thus, it's heavy on free-cash-flow tech, oil/gas, materials, and consumer staples. 2. FVAL, Fidelity Value Factor ETF: https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/snapshot.jhtml?symbols=FVAL Methodology here: https://research2.fidelity.com/pi/Content/Documents/RebalanceSchedulesPDFs/FMR_US_Value_Focus_Methodology_publicFNL.pdf Many "value factor" ETFs have a near-exclusive focus on price/book ratio and earnings (or sales) to price. This one is different in that is specifically calls out free cash flow yield and earnings to enterprise value metrics, which are also metrics that DSTL (the "Distillate U.S. Fundamental Stability & Value ETF", another modern value/quality ETF @ https://distillatefunds.com/dstl) weights highly. In fact, these value metrics are also used as the "value" metrics for FCPI. FVAL is not a simple "value or growth" classifier like some S&P or CRSP value/growth factor ETFs. It has consistently outperformed Vanguard's value ETF, VTV, probably as a result of using methods that can better reflect the effects of intangible value. It was also rebalanced effective Monday, Feb. 22. This is the sort of ETF that may also outperform the market if meme growth tech stocks stagnate. Its top holdings do include free-cash-flow tech starting with S&P 500 stalwarts AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL and FB. Many "value" ETFs will not be holding those tech leaders! But after that that, FVAL takes a bit of a turn; one thing you won't find in either FVAL or FCPI is Tesla. But FVAL does have classic value stocks such as Berkshire Hathaway and JNJ in its top 10. FVAL performance since roughly post-election: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?VOO,VTV,FVAL&n=70&O=011000 or the past 4 years: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?VOO,VTV,FVAL&n=1008&O=011000 General Fidelity ETF reports and methods are here: https://research2.fidelity.com/pi/FidelityIndex/RebalanceSchedules
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Feb 23, 2021 14:14
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holy poo poo pre-market is getting killed
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Feb 23, 2021 14:27
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Goddamnit I hate that my favorite sci fi series is the same as Elon's he's ruining it for all of us
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Feb 23, 2021 14:27
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Mama Mia!
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Feb 23, 2021 14:36
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pmchem posted:I think that two Fidelity ETFs deserve more attention. Each is under 5 years old with an ER of 0.29%, each had a regularly scheduled rebalance just a day ago (so it's a good time to evaluate holdings), and each makes novel contributions to the factor ETF space. Once again, pmchem, thanks for the writeup. Your posts always give me something to think about. I'm not sure how Google, Apple and Microsoft fit into an inflation ETF since I think it's common for people scared of inflation to head to steadier, dividend oriented stocks. Seems like high free cash companies get hurt worse by inflation because their free cash isn't worth as much. FVAL doesn't seem like a value ETF for all the reasons you describe. I don't understand any system that regards FAANG as value stocks.
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Feb 23, 2021 14:47
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All the meme stock buyers are about to learn that stocks, in fact, do not only go up. Buy high, sell low!
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Feb 23, 2021 14:48
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saintonan posted:Once again, pmchem, thanks for the writeup. Your posts always give me something to think about. I'm not sure how Google, Apple and Microsoft fit into an inflation ETF since I think it's common for people scared of inflation to head to steadier, dividend oriented stocks. Seems like high free cash companies get hurt worse by inflation because their free cash isn't worth as much. check out page 5 of the FVAL methods PDF: quote:Characteristics of Fidelity U.S. Value Focus Index So a company like AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL or FB qualifies, but TSLA does not. NFLX does not either.
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Feb 23, 2021 14:54
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Fun watching Tesla match bitcoin now. Great job Elon!
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Feb 23, 2021 15:02
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NDRA 😰
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Feb 23, 2021 15:06
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Imo it’s trading rates not inflation per se but if the long end’s steepening life insurance is the place to be. There’s a whole lot of really lovely companies that are “value” stocks in commodities and energy and that’s a stock picker’s space because the best pick for an oil E&P for example is going to change based on inflation time frames, debt maturation, oil at $60 or $70 or $100 and how fast, etc. Banks and REITs have direct exposure to the economy. Agency MREITs could be a home run but if they’re hedged wrong they could wreck themselves. But a conservative life insurance company is just matching actuarial tables to long dated treasury yields and taking a rake and a less conservative one is getting you some equity exposure. Only thing that could really cause one to go tits up would be if like average life expectancy in the US dropped a year and half unexpectedly for some reason.
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Feb 23, 2021 15:08
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this is why i like to be all cash at the end of every day, with very rare exceptions (not counting my 401k/Roth IRA which is just in vanguard TR ETFs)
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Feb 23, 2021 15:10
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also re: FVAL methods chat, I want to add that this is a HUGE problem for value investing to solve. Too many old school value factor calculations heavily overweight price/book and thus entirely missed the intangible value in R&D heavy companies such as AAPL or MSFT over the past decade. Some discussion of that is here: https://twitter.com/AswathDamodaran/status/1362956143673241605?s=20 or here: https://distillatecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Distillate_Value_Investing_Final.pdf or well, many other sources to be honest. but it's hard to find "value" ETFs that incorporate more modern ideas. I've only really seen DSTL and FVAL as good funds for it, and they do it by incorporating enterprise value and cash flow considerations instead of just book value or EPS metrics.
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Feb 23, 2021 15:11
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So with tech stocks making GBS threads the bed it wouldn't be dumb of me to buy some of the bigger named brands would it? Like apple Microsoft Google ect etc
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Feb 23, 2021 15:18
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Empress Brosephine posted:NDRA 😰 I’m still firm on my “hold until news” strategy.
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Feb 23, 2021 15:18
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gwaarrk posted:So with tech stocks making GBS threads the bed it wouldn't be dumb of me to buy some of the bigger named brands would it? Like apple Microsoft Google ect etc Not if you want to average down into a long term holding but if you’re not planning on holding forever it’s usually better to miss the bottom and start buying on the way back up.
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Feb 23, 2021 15:20
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After-hours and pre-market trading is kind of hosed up IMO
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Feb 23, 2021 15:26
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gwaarrk posted:So with tech stocks making GBS threads the bed it wouldn't be dumb of me to buy some of the bigger named brands would it? Like apple Microsoft Google ect etc i'm a very short term day trader. i will be buying today for a short term bounce, and will be back to cash at the end of the day right now i'm planning to buy TSLA this morning. exact plan for doing that depends on what happens after the open, but i have a small position now and have some orders to buy more laddered down. fwiw i would not recommend this type of trade to someone who isn't experienced doing it already
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Feb 23, 2021 15:29
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