|
Danaru posted:
Pleasure doing business. Fine print in the deal: the at least 2 means we can bribe you for more power if need arises.
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2021 21:08
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 14:13 |
|
Danaru posted:
Witnessed!
|
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2021 21:38
|
|
|
Quackles posted:House Daucus can predict when story cards are arriving, and you're good at making deals and the like. Ok, I know I'm not in the game, but this is starting to affect my enjoyment of the thread. Is House Daucus using future spoilery knowledge of the game that other teams don't have access to? They already grabbed the 2 story cards that gave Prestige Points away. On the first one (Queen Ilysia Dilemma 4) Gambol publically announced they were putting up 3 power so other teams could support their vote without risking the negative sticker and Daucus instead snipes them and commits 4 power, conveniently getting a secret? Prestige in the process. Recently there was some explanation posted about how signing story cards themselves could be beneficial and how the pictures visible on the front could be used to guess when story cards were coming, which seemed like it was posted to make the game fair again. If that was all there was to the whole thing and the 2 Prestige Points were just luck, I'd be fine with all this which is why I haven't said anything until now. However, now Daucus is bargaining with more predictions which implies that's not all the knowledge they have. It doesn't make sense to offer knowledge that all teams now have access to. Several players in other teams resigned from the thread because they had started playing the game irl and didn't want that knowledge affecting the game. I guess technically the spoiler rule in the OP just says not to talk about future stuff in the thread so this is all allowed, but it just seems really dishonest to me. whitehelm fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Feb 27, 2021 |
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2021 22:16
|
|
|
whitehelm posted:Ok, I know I'm not in the game, but this is starting to affect my enjoyment of the thread. Is House Daucus using future spoilery knowledge of the game that other teams don't have access to? They already grabbed the 2 story cards that gave Prestige Points away. On the first one (Queen Ilysia Dilemma 4) Gambol publically announced they were putting up 3 power so other teams could support their vote without risking the negative sticker and Daucus instead snipes them and commits 4 power, conveniently getting a secret? Prestige in the process. Recently there was some explanation posted about how signing story cards themselves could be beneficial and how the pictures visible on the front could be used to guess when story cards were coming, which seemed like it was posted to make the game fair again. If that was all there was to the whole thing and the 2 Prestige Points were just luck, I'd be fine with all this which is why I haven't said anything until now. There's a mechanism using only resources present in the thread to predict storyline progress, and therefore opportunities for signing cards. I'm not saying Daucus isn't going beyond that, I'm only saying that they don't have to. I'm being vague because if the other Houses haven't figured it out, keeping it under wraps is to Gambol's benefit. C... fucked around with this message at 22:45 on Feb 27, 2021 |
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2021 22:43
|
|
|
whitehelm posted:Ok, I know I'm not in the game, but this is starting to affect my enjoyment of the thread. Is House Daucus using future spoilery knowledge of the game that other teams don't have access to? We don't have access to spoilers. We're just looking at the cards really carefully. In the case of the two story cards with Prestige bonuses, we had a good idea the second was a story card, but not what they gave. Quackles fucked around with this message at 23:50 on Feb 27, 2021 |
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2021 23:17
|
|
|
I've hinted a few times, but before this gets out of hand I'll just have this out in the open: every Envelope (unless it's a special one) has a Storyline card + 3 Dilemmas; and AT LEAST 1 of these is going to be a Story card. Hence, if you count the cards (by using the identifier codes at the bottom or the art), if you know you have seen 2 cards already and there's only one left...that has to be the Story card. I've decided to make this public since I'm not sure I've talked about envelope composition before and, while I think this may be talked about in the manual, not everyone has had a look at it. That Italian Guy fucked around with this message at 01:08 on Feb 28, 2021 |
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2021 23:49
|
|
|
whitehelm posted:Ok, I know I'm not in the game, but this is starting to affect my enjoyment of the thread. Is House Daucus using future spoilery knowledge of the game that other teams don't have access to? That Italian Guy posted:I've hinted a few times, but before this gets out of hand I'll just have this out in the open: every Envelope (unless it's a special one) has a Storyline card + Dilemmas; and AT LEAST 1 of these is going to be a Story card. Hence, if you count the cards (by using the identifiers or the art), if you know you have seen 2 cards already and there's only one left...that has to be the Story card. You haven't, and I don't know if its in the manual, but you have mentioned the number of cards in the Dilemma Deck which has helped us math things out. We've just been counting cards and going with our gut on what has been a story card. It legitimately hasn't always gone well with us. I know there are certain things we've invested in that we legitimately assumed were story cards, and we've even encountered story cards like the Truthkeepers which is currently screwing us over with the power investment. In the end, we want storylines going the way we want and signing bonuses for cards. This is a game that we want to win, both in story and in score, and while it may be slightly underhanded that we kept the counting of the cards close to our chest, I want to assure you that we are not using anything that isn't public knowledge and can't be viewed by everyone. We aren't looking up spoilers. We are using the manual and the thread and our guts. Nothing more, nothing less.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 00:54
|
|
|
Omobono posted:Gambol treasurer Danaru posted:
 Treasurer In light of the above, House Lethe has decided to retract our earlier offer, it is no longer on the table.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 01:06
|
|
|
SporkChan posted:
 Aw, nerts, I was low-key hoping Pinchay would tie you to the wheel and Gambol could solo-pass for all 20 power. Would've been sweet! So it's looking like Cyfoeth on Aye, everyone else passing? No House remains committed to another stance, and no offers are outstanding.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 01:27
|
|
|
C... posted:
Sitting Councilmember A sticker is at stake, so there is probably more going on than we can see at this time. A certain House could bid all their power and make another House VERY SAD
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 01:48
|
|
|
Bellmaker posted:
 Huh? I don't see a sticker called out on the front of the card...
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 01:52
|
|
|
Quackles posted:
Whoops, I keep mixing up knowledge icon with the sticker one.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 01:54
|
|
|
That Italian Guy posted:I've hinted a few times, but before this gets out of hand I'll just have this out in the open: every Envelope (unless it's a special one) has a Storyline card + 3 Dilemmas; and AT LEAST 1 of these is going to be a Story card. Hence, if you count the cards (by using the identifier codes at the bottom or the art), if you know you have seen 2 cards already and there's only one left...that has to be the Story card. Ok, could you at least consider blacking out the identifier codes then. Using the pictures and dilemma text to guess at when the story might advance seems ok, but using the codes to count cards doesn't seem intended. Plus uh....I noticed an obvious pattern to which Red Iron/Golden Map dilemmas advanced the story, it doesn't take counting cards to grab those.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 02:14
|
|
|
whitehelm posted:Ok, could you at least consider blacking out the identifier codes then. Using the pictures and dilemma text to guess at when the story might advance seems ok, but using the codes to count cards doesn't seem intended. Plus uh....I noticed an obvious pattern to which Red Iron/Golden Map dilemmas advanced the story, it doesn't take counting cards to grab those. I'd rather that information be open to all rather than hidden.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 02:30
|
|
whitehelm posted:I noticed an obvious pattern to which Red Iron/Golden Map dilemmas advanced the story, it doesn't take counting cards to grab those. That said, while counting cards "thematically" is definitely something that can and is done in the tabletop version, checking identifiers is probably not (they're there to make sure everything has been shipped with your box/check for replacements/production reasons). Counting cards is also a bit difficult to do live, when you don't have access to pictures and every session may be a week apart from the previous one. I would agree that hiding card identifiers (the small numbers on the bottom right of a card) could lead to a more interesting game, but I'd like to hear the thread's opinion on this since we're playing the game together  EDIT: also to make things interesting, in case we decide to do this, what should the censor bars represent or say, unless you just prefer a solid color instead? That Italian Guy fucked around with this message at 11:07 on Feb 28, 2021 |
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 10:29
|
|
|
I'm fine with counting cards (I just miscounted back on the red iron one), but analyzing the card codes seems a bit too much metagaming to me.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 14:49
|
|
|
That Italian Guy posted:If you are talking about the card number, it's randomised, but the sample is very small (1-3) so you may get a lot of repetition unintentionally. The first Story Card for the Red Iron was 2 instead of 3 for example (and other future cards may or may not follow the scheme). Ok, just so it's out there and you know what pattern I saw, these are the dilemma identifiers that led to a story card (not including the F/B which just mean front/back): S=starting envelope (also special envelopes but those didn't trigger any story), R=red iron, G=golden map, A=ash bread, H=truthkeeper (only seen first story card) S.00.2 (started red iron) S.00.3 (started golden map) G.40.3 (advanced story) R.61.3 (advanced story) R.62.1 (started ash bread) G.43.3 (advanced story) G.44.1 (started truthkeeper) A.51.1 (advanced story) G.44.3 (advanced story) S isn't part of a story (well technically the starting card had a symbol but it's numbered 0) so we ignore those. All the red iron and golden map envelopes have had the next story card as #3. The cards that start the ash bread and truthkeeper storylines are #1, but that's because #3 is taken by the advancing story. You can't have an envelope in a current storyline that just starts a new one unless you're at the end of it, or you could get story cards out of order. There's only a couple cards left that start new storylines, so going after all the #3 cards seems to be the way to go, except suddenly it's not the case with the ash bread line (A.51.3 has appeared but led to nothing). Other than that card the only #3 that has appeared without being a story card was S.24.3 from the bank envelope (like I said, no story to advance). I'm expecting all G.X.3 and R.X.3 to give story cards until they end (and maybe the last #3 determines the ending), and guessing ash bread will do the same for #1 for now. Keep all that in mind when you're considering if they should be censored.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 18:58
|
|
|
If it's that easy to pick out which cards are important, that should absolutely be censored. Having that information be available to players completely undermines the purpose of the game.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 19:02
|
|
whitehelm posted:Actual data  As I've mentioned, this is not something you would pay attention to in a live session (in fact no one at my table has noticed), but yeah if there is any real pattern to the numbers we should cover them up for sure.
|
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 19:12
|
|
|
I'm going to lay all the cards on the table about what I know about identifiers (though I called them 'serial numbers' in the House Daucus chat), because it looks like the cat is well out of the bag at this point. There's four parts to an identifier, in order: The letter, the envelope number, the card-in-envelope number, and the card side indicator. Letter (Branch ID?) I hadn't really paid attention to the letter, but it does appear to indicate which 'branch' the game is on. I don't think it's useful for analysis, however. Envelope Number The envelope number was where most of my calculations were coming from, and if TIG does mask identifiers, I'd ask that this part of the identifier be left intact. Obviously it indicates which envelope a card is a part of. Card-in-Envelope Number This number indicates the position of the card in the envelope (always 0 for the top card, then 1, 2, or 3 for the rest). Unlike whitehelm, I do not think there is a sufficient pattern to determine which card is a story card through this number and have not been using it. Card Side Indicator This is always F, for Front, or B, for Back. Overall, my opinion is as follows: If you do partly obscure serial numbers I would ask that you leave the envelope number visible. This would allow players (all players, now that I've mentioned it) to infer when a card might be a story card, without giving too much away. Quackles fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Feb 28, 2021 |
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 19:24
|
|
|
Cover them to be sure but to me that seems a random pattern on a small sample size. I mean, over 9 dilemmas advancing a storyline, there were 3 labeled as .1, 1 labeled as .1 and 5 labeled as .3 Checking for fairness is a trivial Poisson distribution check; the expected value is 3, standard deviation is the square root of the expected value (about 1.73); all results are within ~1.1547 standard deviations, so eyeballing it a lot it's a 28% chance (32% of results are outside 1 standard deviation, 5% are outside 2 standard deviations). At 28%, the null hypothesis still holds. Restricting ourselves to the story advancing Dilemmas, we got 4 cards over 5 ending with a .3 Again, expected value is 5/3 (1.666), standard deviation is the quare root of that (~1.29); that's 1.8 standard deviations outside the expected value; eyeballing it again it's a 10% chance, which is still not enough to disprove the null hypothesis. TL,DR: it's a small sample size, but censor those numbers to be sure.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 19:30
|
|
Omobono posted:Checking for fairness is a trivial Poisson distribution check; the expected value is 3, standard deviation is the square root of the expected value (about 1.73); all results are within ~1.1547 standard deviations, so eyeballing it a lot it's a 28% chance (32% of results are outside 1 standard deviation, 5% are outside 2 standard deviations). At 28%, the null hypothesis still holds. That would eventually make card counting revelant, going from my previous post that *at least* 1 card/evenlope will be a *open a new evelope* card. Please let me know if you'd like the envelope card numbers only to be visible or not from now on!
|
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 19:39
|
|
|
I am, of course, in favor of envelope numbers being displayed. I don't care about the other numbers. Quackles fucked around with this message at 19:54 on Feb 28, 2021 |
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 19:49
|
|
|
Look, I know that some people are saying this isn't in the spirit of the game, but we've already changed a lot due to the format. The fact we are on a forum with blind bids has already changed the state of the game in a massive way. The Leader position is useless, and the slow raise Poker bidding of the tabletop game has become a secret bidding game with big swings where people are going all in and occasionally overbidding, and where people have lost hope and just decided not to bid because they see themselves as losing before bidding has even started. The possible pattern aside (which has Omobono has pointed out is within the null hypothesis), the use of card counting and envelope numbers has been a chance for an alternate strategy that Daucus has been using. To complete remove that would remove the strategy granted by using the format of the forum game compared to the desk top. If there is a pattern in those numbers, fine, but please keep at least the envelope numbers.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 20:07
|
|
|
I disagree, I think the entire thing should be censored. The game is supposed to be about debating and voting on various problems the kingdom faces, not about looking at tiny numbers on the corners of a card and speculating whether that means it's an important card or not.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 20:27
|
|
|
Yeah, I look at this thread on my phone and didn't even notice there were numbers at the bottom of the cardsQuackles posted:Envelope Number
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 20:28
|
|
|
I am in favor of covering it all up. People can use the card art to at least attempt to determine how many cards remain within a given story-line, but that allows the game itself to throw things off by mixing up the the card art (something I believe would have been intended by the game designers). If the packet numbers aren't obscured, then there should be a running tally in the thread itself, probably produced by That Italian Guy to make it official. Sorry to add work to your plate TIG! Much like how the 'secret' but knowable prestige/crave counts are recorded at the end of each reign. Basically I think it should either be secret to all or public to all, but no in between.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 20:38
|
|
|
megane posted:Yeah, I look at this thread on my phone and didn't even notice there were numbers at the bottom of the cards I personally think the card counting is fine. Now that it's been detailed, everybody should be able to gain this benefit. Whitehelm did provide a valuable service in that they pointed out that revealing the position-in-envelope number might allow for more than just counting, so I'm OK with that being obscured. SporkChan posted:If the packet numbers aren't obscured, then there should be a running tally in the thread itself, probably produced by That Italian Guy to make it official. Sorry to add work to your plate TIG! Much like how the 'secret' but knowable prestige/crave counts are recorded at the end of each reign. I'd be happy to maintain a tally publicly, or transfer my existing data to TIG so he can maintain it. Quackles fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Feb 28, 2021 |
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 20:51
|
|
|
I'm fine with covering up the position numbers. I don't have an opinion either way regarding envelope numbers because I'm not really sure how that affects things besides allowing for card-counting, which I fail to see the purpose in for this game. I guess I'm unaware of some rule indicating a frequency of story cards in envelopes, or something like that, because otherwise I don't see any point at all.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 21:33
|
|
|
Redact anything that isn't the main image or text, just like seriously crop out the bordering. I love me some obscure Genius-style card reading magic but not in a game not designed for it.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 21:55
|
|
|
I am a member of House Daucus, but have no strong feelings one way or the other re: serial numbers. As has been noted, we have already departed heavily from the tabletop mechanics and (if so determined by the thread) this would merely be one more on the list of tweaked mechanics.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 22:53
|
|
|
As far as I noticed, the game has been fairly consistent in having the dilemma's front image match the storyline card, you can count cards based on that and I think that's intended. In addition, per the rulebook only the latest story card in a line is visible, so I fully believe the visuals are meant to be used as guide. The only exception was the latest golden map dilemma, but no-one could have any doubt which storyline it belonged to; in addition, solving the dilemma correctly involved actually checking the golden map on the story card, so I'd call it a strong indicator the pictures are an intended part of the gameplay. In my opinion: No way the numbers aren't randomised. But no point risking it and looking at the card's unique identifier can't be intended gameplay. So crop those out fully, we can count through the pictures anyways. Maybe show the identifier after the vote so we can check if they're random?
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 23:15
|
|
|
Omobono posted:Maybe show the identifier after the vote so we can check if they're random? If we're going to block out identifiers before the vote, showing them after feels like a good compromise. At that point, the matter will have been decided, and it'll be purely of historical interest.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 23:20
|
|
|
I'm personally for censoring all the relevant card counting information. Even if the information is equal and available to all, I don't really find it fun game play wise, and as been mentioned it kinda goes against the spirit of
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 23:36
|
|
|
Omobono posted:
I actually missed a number, R.62.3. It's 5 advancing cards out of 6, so it's going to be lower than the 10% you gave. whitehelm fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Mar 1, 2021 |
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2021 23:59
|
|
|
Covski posted:I'm personally for censoring all the relevant card counting information. Even if the information is equal and available to all, I don't really find it fun game play wise, and as been mentioned it kinda goes against the spirit of Yeah it’s a fun issue for me too.
|
|
#
?
Mar 1, 2021 00:10
|
|
Reign of King Cleon I, Dilemma 2, Resolution Vote Results posted:
Vote Outcome posted:
The Cult of the Mother posted:The Cult of the Mother is the only religion in the kingdom of Ankist and in most of the other known lands.The Mother is considered the only true goddess, and she is worshipped as a benevolent figure together with her eight Saint Daughters. However, especially in remote places, paganism is sometimes still present, but the Cult treats it as superstition, claiming that the pagan gods are likely misinterpretations of the Saint Daughters. History of the Kingdom of Ankist posted:Hall of Rulers   - Foreman/Sitting Councilmember: grandalt (also Treasurer) - Sitting Councilmember: Omobono - Treasurer/Navigator: C...    - Sitting Councilmember: Sighence (also Treasurer)   - High Scholar/Sitting Councilmember: Quackles (also Treasurer)   - Sitting Councilmember: SporkChan - Treasurer/Negotiator: Covski Dilemma3 posted:
 A 48h voting window is now open! - Sitting Councilmembers can send me a PM/Email with their final decision. Please consult the OP if you need a refresher on the rules! - Treasurers can now start bribing. Please consult the OP if you need a refresher on the rules! - Senators are free to discuss the Dilemma and provide their feedback. Don't forget that every choice could have consequences that are not spelled out outright on the front of the card! Also, please remember that the thread is the main discussion platform for your vote intention - the Sheet is only to be used when discussing high level strategy, bargaining strategies and items on the sheet itself.
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 1, 2021 12:22
|
|
|
Senator What? No, we shouldn't let the mad musician terrorize vast swathes of the population with the doom flute. Why is this even a question?
|
|
#
?
Mar 1, 2021 12:35
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 1, 2021 12:55
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 14:13 |
|
|
Sitting councilmember Who said anything about the population?* He'll play the doomflute away** from people, where it's safe. We see no reason to stop him, as long as he allows our scholars to get into position first. Ya ya ftaghn. Ooc: I wasn't expecting lady Chtulu to be honest. *apart from the musician himself **two meters is plenty of distance E: Danaru, is that an aye or nay there? Omobono fucked around with this message at 13:26 on Mar 1, 2021 |
|
#
?
Mar 1, 2021 12:59
|
|