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Solaris 2.0 posted:I don’t think the Japanese ever actually had a plan for what they wanted to do in China? Like they bungled into it and then couldn’t figure a way out. Securing land and resources for the future of their race, or something close to it.
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Mar 10, 2021 15:48
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Solaris 2.0 posted:I don’t think the Japanese ever actually had a plan for what they wanted to do in China? Like they bungled into it and then couldn’t figure a way out. My slim understanding is that different groups inside Japan had different war aims, with the unfortunate problem that the IJA in particular had a high degree of independence and, after Shanghai, somewhat serious belief that they could take all the marbles. Part of the problem for them is that after Taierzhuang, the KMT became much more confident and terms that the Japanese considered acceptable were no longer acceptable to the KMT. Possible one party or the other could have been more flexible and still seen a negotiated peace, but instead both sides dug in and the war ground on (and the CCP start getting MUCH more of a problem for Japan). The Imperial GHQ's objective seemed to be to secure Manchuria and a chunk of north China (incidentally the most industrial regions) and then gear up for a confrontation with the USSR. From Japan's perspective, Manchuria and the coastline as far south as maybe (MAYBE) Zhejiang is net positive - the economic extraction is worth more than the costs of occupation for dense areas right on the coast, as long as they're not as mountainous as they get further south. I have no idea if Japan and Germany were cooperating on a plan to invade the USSR simultaneously at any point, or what the implications of that would be.
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Mar 10, 2021 16:37
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Grumio posted:What if the Daqing oil fields in then-Manchukuo were discovered in the 30s (instead of the 50s), giving Imperial Japan access to a huge oil reserve? Japan is still a pariah for their actions in China, but do they need* further expansion? OK first of all it's not like the IJN weren't mad imperialists, they were just mad imperialists pointing southward instead of northward. Big Japan economy tangent which will eventually maybe get to answering your question (tldr answer is they would still need resource access, but it was basically a self licking ice cream cone). I feel bad for kicking off IJN-RN slapfight so you can consider this shoddy economic analysis a form of penance. The Meiji era (through 1912) was basically Japan beginning to industrialize. There was a lot of focus on growth in light industry and export, in particular transitioning the export of raw materials in to the export of finished goods (eg export of raw silk fibers to export of silk textiles). The textile industry dominated. Military spending hit a peak of 6.1% of GDP right before WW2 which was high compared to peers but not totally insane (Germany, France etc were hovering around 5% prewar). Japan is a net importer of raw materials, especially minerals, and food, in addition to machine parts and other industrial goods. As the population and economy grows, imports continue to increase. Japan starts to place tariffs on certain strategic materials like iron and steel, and finished goods like ships, to encourage local production with the goal of self-sufficiency in advanced and strategic finished goods. This results in (disproportionate) investment in heavy industry, with the result that although GDP didn't really grow that much, the nature of Japan's economy began to shift from a generally raw materials and light industry base on those raw materials, to an economy based on heavy industrial production. Of note, taking colonies in Korea and Manchuria in 1905 provided export markets and access to resources to support heavy industry (like tungsten, coal, and iron). However, occupation of those colonies required an increase in the Military budget, and therefore an increase in investment in heavy industry, necessitating consumption of more resources. I think you see where this is going. A few new things happen around WWI. First of all, Japan enters the war, and military orders from other Allied nations start coming in. Japan starts building a lot of ships (the French notably ordered a whole string of destroyers in Japanese yards), and producing a lot of arms and other military goods for the Allies. Investment in heavy industry increased even more, and Japan acquires some additional useless colonies as a result of the war, which increase the burden on the military budget. After the war, there's a bit of an economic slump. Heavy industry is kind of in shambles because foreign (and domestic) military orders are way down. But Japan does OK on balance. The standard of living is rising. Japan isn't as horribly impacted by the Great Depression as some countries. In 1930, the dominant imports are cotton (for the textile industry) and food commodities. The dominant exports are textiles and related, and to a very much lesser extent finished food products. (Sidebar: Toyota Industries was established at this point as a maker of automatic looms, one of the most high-technology product types of the era with simple programming and very high precision engineering. Looms are really interesting.) Heavy industry has rebounded but is primarily focused on production for domestic consumption, including industrial expansion in light industry, and military orders. It's only about 25% of total industrial output. Japan imports iron and petroleum but not in particularly large quantities and quite a bit of import is from its colonies in Manchuria and Korea - only petroleum makes the top imports list, and these imports are freely available from the DEI and the USA. The country including colonies is self sufficient in coal. You figure alt-hist Japan is probably on a vague course to turn in to 1970s Japan a few decades early - an economy focused on import of raw materials (in part from its existing colonies) and export of finished goods. Unfortunately the government's budget becomes inextricably tied to the fate of the Manchurian colonies. Revenues generated from Mantetsu, the South Manchurian Railway Company, were about 1/4 of the national budget in the 1920s, and they were generated through export of raw materials from Manchuria. Mantetsu was extremely close to the Kwantung Army, who ensured the security of the railway and freedom of action. Expanding Mantetsu is, if not a strategic priority, at least seen as highly beneficial to the economy, the government, and the Kwantung Army. In 1931 we get to the result. The lunatics in the Kwantung Army step up to the plate. They go off the leash (from Tokyo's perspective) and unfortunately get a very easy win and end up acquiring all of Manchuria. Manchuria is a huge export market for light industrial goods, a massive source of required food imports, and can provide some additional raw materials like coal and iron to fuel industrial expansion. Mantetsu's projected revenue looks incredible, the government is going to get a huge cut of that, glory to Japan, and the rest of the industrialists are happy with the additional markets and resources opened up. So everyone's stoked (except the poor Manchurians) - this one was easy, and look at all the industrial capacity we've gained! Part of the problem here is that resource access is a bit of a half-truth. There's just enough in it to make the idea tempting, but not enough to make it actually useful. Here's Japan's imports in 1930:
Manchuria has large quantities of iron, but that isn't even making the import list in 1930 before the Mukden Incident. Acquiring access to iron and coal was probably detrimental to the economy. It enabled just enough of a self-sufficient pivot to a heavy industry economy without allowing a full transition. This transition was encouraged and supported by the (now prominent, Glory to Japan!) militarists through military spending and autarky theory. The net effect of the complete takeover of Manchuria was that light industry was deprioritized, and investments were focused in extremely resource-intensive heavy industries and some primary extractive colonial industries. Textiles just require locally-sourced raw materials and commodity imports, and the plant and equipment requirements are substantial but pale in comparison to precision heavy industry. When you then take profits earned from your light textile industry and instead of reinvestment, you invest in say, steel production, you are increasing reliance on resource intensive industries that require import of raw materials, as well as massive stocks of machinery and tooling. Previously, those investments were economically challenging, but now with cheaper and more readily available coal and iron, they're justifiable. By 1937 the economy is inverted and frankly shambolic. Light textile industry earning hard currency is gutted and stagnant. Over 60% of industrial GDP is provided by heavy industry (vs something like 25% in the early 1930s). Exports of heavy industrial goods are increasing substantially, but these are highly resource intensive and dependent on import of strategic materials, and most exports are going to help industrialize the colonies. 22% of GDP is going to military budget - when Reagan "bankrupted" the USSR, the USSR was spending a maximum of 15% of GDP on the military. Real wages have declined about 40% since 1931 due to productivity improvements and shifts away from labor intensive industries. GDP is technically growing but it's almost entirely based on government (read: military, over 50% of Japanese government budget is military) spending. The country is racking up a substantial trade deficit, primarily based on purchase of strategic materials. Looking at 1930 vs 1940 import tables:
The interesting thing in the 1940 table is most of the additional generated through spending on the military and fighting wars in China Cotton, food, and wood are the non-strategic imports. The rest is all essentially dedicated to fueling the war machine, which is focused on acquiring more strategic resources... that are needed to fuel the war machine. Japan massively increased consumption of raw materials related to heavy industry over the 1930s, while decreasing its ability to purchase the necessary types of materials on global markets. The diminished ability to buy is due to political (Chinese expansionism) and economic causes as Japan began running a trade deficit to purchase raw materials, and these strategic materials increase in cost. Increasing demand and decreasing access coupled with cost pressures pushes Japan towards more imperialistic ways of acquiring resources (and vice versa), and therefore increases investments in the military, therefore increasing demand and decreasing access, ad infinitum. the tl;dr: Japan didn't need resources per se, they needed resources to support a Strong Japan in the traditional militarist sense. Strong Japan required strategic resources to support growing military budgets. These budgets were post facto justified as necessary to maintain expansionist and militaristic colonial policy, which was in turn justified itself by providing access to needed resources (to support the military budget), which further justified colonial expansion ad infinitum. The only real opportunity to get off the train is 1931 (and frankly, there is probably only the most Slavic AFAB Hirohito of possibilities), and by the time the Kwantung Army does its thing it's too late. However, to answer the very specific question asked - no, discovering oil in Manchuria would not be sufficient to "meet Japan's resource needs." Japan needed imports of pretty much everything, and was also highly concerned with being cut off from rubber, tin, bauxite, copper, and scrap iron (as despite Manchuria's significant iron production, it wasn't enough to meet demand). And fundamentally the need wasn't real in a productive economic sense - it was entirely a need based off of the expansionist Imperial policy and required military budgets, so as long as Japan was spending insane GDP on the military, the need would always be there and would never be satisfied. There's a point in which they are willing to negotiate a settlement with the Western Imperial Powers in WWII having captured Malaya and the DEI plus a strategic cordon, but that's not the end of the war in a real sense. It would just mean a pivot to carving up China, and once that's done the spiritual successors to the Kwantung Army are probably going to take another run at the USSR.
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Mar 10, 2021 17:04
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Solaris 2.0 posted:I don’t think the Japanese ever actually had a plan for what they wanted to do in China? Like they bungled into it and then couldn’t figure a way out. Nominally, carve it up in to a bunch of things roughly analogous to Manchukou in the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity sphere which essentially meant colonial resource extraction to Japan's benefit (see immediately previous giant post). Practically, the purpose of the IJA at that point was to bonk heads. It had ceased to become a tool of a functioning state and was just its own entity extracting resources from the state. War and the process of winning was the end goal. Note I don't say actually winning the war (whatever that functionally means) was the end goal because in some ways that would have been BAD for the IJA.
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Mar 10, 2021 17:07
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P-Mack posted:I mean, the military situation for the KMT was completely and utterly hopeless, so it's not completely unreasonable to think that something like Wang Jingwei's defection could have had more internal support than it historically did. Now what this theoretical functional Reorganized government that is sufficiently stable and aligned with Japanese interests that they can meaningfully withdraw their occupying forces actually looks like, I don't know, and I don't think they did either. It still amazes that they actually managed to hold on honestly.
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Mar 10, 2021 17:17
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A key thing to understand about IJA war strategy is that as often as not it was driven by low ranking officers at the front who would start fights on the basis that the Government would rather double down on their actions and have a war than admit embarrassment and apologise.
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Mar 10, 2021 17:20
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It's interesting to think what happens in a alternate universe where Japan never does Pearl Harbour so the US doesn't enter the war (but is presumably still doing lend-lease to the Allies and the USSR) and Japan takes another crack at the USSR but after Germany is still defeated by the USSR/UK/USA Lend Lease.
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Mar 10, 2021 17:28
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Raenir Salazar posted:It's interesting to think what happens in a alternate universe where Japan never does Pearl Harbour so the US doesn't enter the war (but is presumably still doing lend-lease to the Allies and the USSR) and Japan takes another crack at the USSR but after Germany is still defeated by the USSR/UK/USA Lend Lease. I think Japan "taking another crack at the USSR" after a German defeat would go very badly. I'd compare such a thing to Manchuria 1945, which, well: 
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Mar 10, 2021 17:37
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something being dumb as poo poo was never really a barrier to Imperial Japan trying it on, though
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Mar 10, 2021 17:39
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Lawman 0 posted:It still amazes that they actually managed to hold on honestly. I feel like these two maps next to each other help:   The IJA had significant advantages where it could utilize sea transportation and mechanized units. That...does not work in large areas of China, and the IJA starts losing battles quite a bit when they get inland. The scenarios necessary for them to control Yunna and Sichuan do not seem very plausible to me.
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Mar 10, 2021 17:56
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Alchenar posted:A key thing to understand about IJA war strategy is that as often as not it was driven by low ranking officers at the front who would start fights on the basis that the Government would rather double down on their actions and have a war than admit embarrassment and apologise. So, basically the same as british colonial policy in the 18th/19th century?
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Mar 10, 2021 18:03
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Tulip posted:I feel like these two maps next to each other help: 
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Mar 10, 2021 18:08
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Cessna posted:I think Japan "taking another crack at the USSR" after a German defeat would go very badly. I'd compare such a thing to Manchuria 1945, which, well: It's interesting to consider in the near and long terms. Near term: While the Kwangtung army was still impressive on paper in 1945 (750,000 men iirc?), it was still drained/picked apart for troops to serve in the pacific campaign. So its possible that it would be a slightly to somewhat more difficult fight where Japan isn't distracted by the pacific war. Long term since the assumption is that Japan still gets its rear end kicked. The USA isn't there to send troops to occupy South Korea; Soviet troops I imagine help the CCP and KMT in liberating China more directly; and then the question becomes since it would probably take a while for the USSR to build up the necessary sealift to consider an invasion of the Home islands beyond the Kurils; at what point does the US that historically switched gears towards a cold war with the USSR sometime in 1948, reconsiders its embargo on Japan and switches support and in a historical irony is the one to step in to negotiate peace between Japan and the USSR? With Japan slotting in as a US ally but without the occupation. The question that's in the air is does the US still seek containment of the USSR if it never enters the war and never sends troops to Europe and never occupied a slice of West Germany and West Berlin? Which also waves aside what exactly does Western Europe look like in this scenario but details details details. I feel like that could make for an interesting anime.
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Mar 10, 2021 18:23
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Raenir Salazar posted:I feel like that could make for an interesting anime. alright now let's not say anything we can't take back
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Mar 10, 2021 18:40
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IIRC The Kwangtung army by August of 1945 is nothing more than a counter-insurgency force. All of its best troops and equipment long since shipped off (or sunk) to other campaign theaters. The equipment they did have being horribly out of date. The Manchuria Operation is an absolutely impressive logistical feat by the Soviet Army, but it's also extremely lopsided given the fact that the Soviet Forces involved were battle harden after 4 years of fighting the Wehrmacht and possessing some of the best offensive equipment, training, and doctrine in the world at that point.
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Mar 10, 2021 18:50
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As someone who likes milhist as well as anime, they are two flavors that never go well together.
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Mar 10, 2021 19:04
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:As someone who likes milhist as well as anime, they are two flavors that never go well together. This is false. There is at least one good plane anime.
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Mar 10, 2021 19:08
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Raenir Salazar posted:It's interesting to think what happens in a alternate universe where Japan never does Pearl Harbour so the US doesn't enter the war (but is presumably still doing lend-lease to the Allies and the USSR) and Japan takes another crack at the USSR but after Germany is still defeated by the USSR/UK/USA Lend Lease. I might remember it completely wrong, wasn't one of the reasons why Stalin could put up such a stiff resistance (and, I think, get Zhukov to the western front) because he got info from the allies that Japan wasn't planning any offenses against the Soviet Union?
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Mar 10, 2021 19:10
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Jobbo_Fett posted:This is false. There is at least one good plane anime. Which one? No, I am not going to watch it.
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Mar 10, 2021 19:12
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Everyone should watch Porco Rosso
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Mar 10, 2021 19:15
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Raenir Salazar posted:Hear me out, what if Imperial Japan discovers a stable portal to another world that they can exploit for waifus? Raenir Salazar posted:I feel like that could make for an interesting anime. 
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Mar 10, 2021 19:19
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Cessna posted:Which one? Area 88. Its 100% milhist and real and cool and good.
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Mar 10, 2021 19:21
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Jobbo_Fett posted:Area 88. Its 100% milhist and real and cool and good. Alright that one I'll give you, Area 88 is p. rad
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Mar 10, 2021 19:24
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Greggster posted:I might remember it completely wrong, wasn't one of the reasons why Stalin could put up such a stiff resistance (and, I think, get Zhukov to the western front) because he got info from the allies that Japan wasn't planning any offenses against the Soviet Union? Zhukov at least was already in the west, he had been made Chief of the General Staff in February '41. Divisions get pulled from Siberia, but I think the consensus is that they ultimately weren't as crucial as the story-book version would have it. e: apparently said divisions were all actually transferred before any of that intelligence came in Honestly even if the intelligence said "Japan is going to conduct an offensive against us imminently", pulling those divisions to defend Moscow would be a justifiable choice anyway. PittTheElder fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Mar 10, 2021 |
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Mar 10, 2021 19:36
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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Raenir Salazar posted:It's interesting to think what happens in a alternate universe where Japan never does Pearl Harbour so the US doesn't enter the war (but is presumably still doing lend-lease to the Allies and the USSR) and Japan takes another crack at the USSR but after Germany is still defeated by the USSR/UK/USA Lend Lease. Uh is Japan supposed to be invading the USSR while under an oil embargo in this scenario.
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Mar 10, 2021 19:57
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PittTheElder posted:Zhukov at least was already in the west, he had been made Chief of the General Staff in February '41. Divisions get pulled from Siberia, but I think the consensus is that they ultimately weren't as crucial as the story-book version would have it. Siberia doesnt even begin until you travel 1000km from the Soviet-Japanese border. The hopelessness of a Japanese invasion of the USSR becomes clear when you see that the Warsaw-Moscow distance that Barbarossa could not clear is the same distance that Japan must cross the reach the first semblance of industry in Irkutsk. This is through frigid hills and ridgelines with no roads too
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Mar 10, 2021 20:08
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:As someone who likes milhist as well as anime, they are two flavors that never go well together. There's actually quite a few series that are at least decent. Not counting stuff like Grave of the Fireflies or the Wind Rises, I hear good things about Zipang. While Girls Und Panzer is consistently fun if you're into World of Tanks. I hear good things about Golden Kamuy although its Milhist relevance might be debatable. And Tanya is also neat even if its like alt hist/isekai. And if you just like people with guns shooting at each other, albeit taking place in VR there's the Gun Gale Online anime which is basically PUBG. Obligatory mention is Legend of the Galactic H-*strangling noises*. Fangz posted:Uh is Japan supposed to be invading the USSR while under an oil embargo in this scenario. No idea.
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Mar 10, 2021 20:08
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It ends with Japan running out of fuel and surrendering.
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Mar 10, 2021 20:20
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Raenir Salazar posted:I hear good things about Golden Kamuy although its Milhist relevance might be debatable. Golden Kamuy is pretty great if you are at all interested in late 19th-early 20th century Japanese military/political/cultural history, indigenous Ainu culture, interesting cuisine plus beefy, PTSD-ridden ex-soldiers and hilariously over the top convicts murdering the poo poo out of each other in interesting ways. The very first scene is about a dude having a flashback to Siege of Port Arthur where he got a bullet to the neck but somehow didn't die and instead went on a berserk rampage through some poor, unlucky Russian conscripts. The series is very well researched, and lots of care is paid to period-appropriate clothing and weaponry and one can learn a ton. It occasionally goes into anime comedy, which can give a person whiplash. I prefer the manga version. Warden fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Mar 10, 2021 |
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Mar 10, 2021 20:28
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:As someone who likes milhist as well as anime, they are two flavors that never go well together. I'd consider The Legend of the Galactic Heroes future milhist anime. A perfect mix.
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Mar 10, 2021 21:04
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Libluini posted:I'd consider The Legend of the Galactic Heroes future milhist anime. A perfect mix. *nods quietly and vaguely gestures whilst drinking wine*
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Mar 10, 2021 21:08
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:OK first of all it's not like the IJN weren't mad imperialists, they were just mad imperialists pointing southward instead of northward. Thanks for this write up. The Wages of Destruction II: Showa edition would make for a very interesting read
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Mar 10, 2021 22:00
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In The Witcher tv show (and maybe the books/games but I haven't played them but if they shed light on the question shoot), is Nilfguard more analogous to pre-Unification Qin or the Roman Republic? It feels like at a glance to me its Qin, because characters who live in Nilfguard seem to be experiencing some sort of ideology where the people nilfguard are given purpose by the state, in a way that's specific to Nilfguard in a way that reminds me of legalism and the way Qin organized its society to fight wars was specific to the Kingdom of Qin during the wars of Unification?
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Mar 10, 2021 22:36
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Grumio posted:Thanks for this write up. The Wages of Destruction II: Showa edition would make for a very interesting read *astronaut meme voice* it was all about lacking oil?
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Mar 10, 2021 22:37
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Raenir Salazar posted:In The Witcher tv show (and maybe the books/games but I haven't played them but if they shed light on the question shoot), is Nilfguard more analogous to pre-Unification Qin or the Roman Republic? I seriously doubt it has anything, at all, to do with China or any influences from Chinse history. Or Rome, for that matter. The author, Andrzej Sapkowski, is Polish (as is the game studio that developed his books into video games) and pretty much every single thing you see in there as far as the monsters etc is drawing off Eastern European mythology. I'd be amazed if his specific depiction of high fantasy medieval-ish times was anything but heavily influenced by Polish/Eastern European history and cultural stereotypes about that era, the same way that most Anglosphere sword and sorcery fiction is based on a highly stylized version of the English (and to a much lesser extent French and German) high middle ages with a heavy does of how that got sorted through 1000 years of intervening literature and cultural production.
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Mar 10, 2021 23:00
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E^ better post
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Mar 10, 2021 23:00
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Something else to consider: I have only the most tenuous relationship with anything eastern European before the 19th century, but my uneducated guess would be Russia, as the local heavyweight when it came to land grabs, for who he was thinking of when he made Nilfguard. Also don't discount the possibility of that being Sapkowski layering on some more modern poo poo which Fantasy as a genre is rife with. Could very well be a ham handed allegory for Communism if Nilfgard is Russia, for example. Again, no idea, just making conjecture out of my rear end. edit: hell, maybe even Germany if he's looking in the other direction.
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Mar 10, 2021 23:05
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From what I've read of his influences Nilfgaard is a combination of Rome, The HRE, the USSR, and Nazi Germany.
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Mar 10, 2021 23:09
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Does the original mobile suit gundam count? Inherent silliness of mechs aside, the show's framing is a blend of boys' anime conventions and milhisty futurewar, depicting a groggy love of different MS production lines, technical specs, logistics and doctrine, etc etc. Also The Wind Rises is a must see for anyone who likes planes/werner herzog
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Mar 10, 2021 23:14
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Gaius Marius posted:From what I've read of his influences Nilfgaard is a combination of Rome, The HRE, the USSR, and Nazi Germany. No that's Serpentor. "These long-dead genetic blueprints were combined to produce a clone with the genius of Napoleon, the ruthlessness of Julius Caesar, the daring of Hannibal, and the shrewdness of Attila the Hun, and the aggressiveness and impulsiveness of Sergeant Slaughter." Who would you put in your Serpentor?
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Mar 10, 2021 23:15
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