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Man, no GNRS weed pop
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Mar 15, 2021 18:07
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will be traded OTC
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Mar 15, 2021 22:55
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DeadFatDuckFat posted:Man, no GNRS weed pop Yeah I'm down 5.69% on this one and think I'll set an order to bail out. Possibly sticking through merger I get back to my 10.56 a share but I'm hoping I can put the money into something better and get that time value to work for me.
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Mar 15, 2021 23:18
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have there been any good DA bumps at all lately? like since cciv?
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Mar 15, 2021 23:20
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I've been questioning the faith lately. It's funny because playing the sub-$11 strategy you tell yourself, "Well the worst that can happen is you lose ~10% and some opportunity cost." And you feel safe. Then you lose 10% and some opportunity cost and you're like gently caress. (I'm actually still net positive with my current holdings thanks to low cost basis on IPOD/IPOF/PSTH, but still.)
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Mar 15, 2021 23:25
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Shear Modulus posted:have there been any good DA bumps at all lately? like since cciv? No, we're working through a crop of poo poo mergers from the Dark Times. ALTU/NSH/NGAC/ALUS/AACQ are a better bet than just about anything else right now, at around 10.50 a pop.
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Mar 15, 2021 23:37
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FistEnergy posted:No, we're working through a crop of poo poo mergers from the Dark Times. These have already popped and fallen. The market has "recovered" from the minor blip last month. Why are we confident these will run up prior to merger? I'm just thinking that everyone has the playbook now and we're all racing to the bottom to cash out ASAP. I don't know how many bagholders we're going to find who are willing to buy the SPACs at 50%+ over nav and carry them across a highly dilutive merger. Maybe now we just ignore SPACs and just see how these companies shake out after merger? :/
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Mar 16, 2021 15:56
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What are peoples feelings on PSTH at this point? I have two contracts worth of calls with a strike off 22.50 expiring this week. I could sell them for meh profits, but I sort of believe in PSTH being able to land something significant so I'm actually considering executing them for the 200 stocks at around a 4,500 investment. It's hard to imagine they merge with something that isn't worth at least 30 bucks in the long term and if they do nab something like Stripe I can imagine the stock price being quite high.
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Mar 17, 2021 18:19
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If I understand correctly, they don't need to merge with just one company and can split the trust among multiple mergers.
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Mar 17, 2021 18:50
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Girbot posted:If I understand correctly, they don't need to merge with just one company and can split the trust among multiple mergers. Ah, that is potentially a lot less exciting. Their leadership team is excellent though
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Mar 17, 2021 18:52
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another signed DA followed by a selloff on the same day https://twitter.com/spencerrascoff/status/1372537060830048262?s=20 
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Mar 18, 2021 19:44
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where's my money
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Mar 18, 2021 20:17
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Trying to be patient these days but RED e: I did split my ADERU and DHHCU today. I guess that's the small consolation for being so heavy into pre-split SPACs. Cost basis is usually between $10.50 and $11. And even as beaten down as they are now, warrants are still going for around a buck. So if I really want to hit eject, the loss isn't quite so bad. More than a can say for post-DA buys like ALUS! Chad Sexington fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Mar 19, 2021 |
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Mar 19, 2021 16:42
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This poo poo sucks. gently caress short sellers. gently caress bonds. gently caress everyone who IPOed 80000 spacs.
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Mar 19, 2021 16:52
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Yeah, I'm starting to get the feeling that I missed the SPAC train. Almost everything I have has been red since I got in last month... Fortunately I didn't put much in, but still.
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Mar 19, 2021 21:14
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Eh, even if the SPAC train really is over the safety of the NAV floor means you can wait it out and see. At this point opportunity cost is all that's left for most of these
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Mar 19, 2021 23:13
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:Yeah, I'm starting to get the feeling that I missed the SPAC train. Almost everything I have has been red since I got in last month... Fortunately I didn't put much in, but still. I think SPACs are fine if you are patient enough to wait for big pullbacks and only buy at NAV. And no, buying at 10.90 is not near NAV. I think a lot of people in this thread have learned that they are not okay with a 9% drop that doesn’t immediately recover.
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Mar 19, 2021 23:13
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laxbro posted:I think SPACs are fine if you are patient enough to wait for big pullbacks and only buy at NAV. And no, buying at 10.90 is not near NAV. I think a lot of people in this thread have learned that they are not okay with a 9% drop that doesn’t immediately recover. I've got some stuff that's like .10-.12 below nav =( Lucky all my positions in SPACs were picked up pretty dang close to NAV so it hasn't burned my account or anything.
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Mar 19, 2021 23:16
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the Waiting is the hardest part....
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Mar 19, 2021 23:34
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Probably better off learning simple options plays if you want to actively gamble with defined risk. SPACs are fun though. And I bet the mania will build again within the next few months.
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Mar 19, 2021 23:42
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As a concept, it seems like SPACs won’t just permanently suck like they have for the past couple of weeks. Maybe the hype is over but all the DAs I know of have been extremely lackluster? I dunno it’s weird to see stuff that was close to $11 3 weeks ago in the 9.90s. Unless CCIV really was a huge last hurrah
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Mar 20, 2021 00:01
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Tetramin posted:As a concept, it seems like SPACs won’t just permanently suck like they have for the past couple of weeks. Maybe the hype is over but all the DAs I know of have been extremely lackluster? I dunno it’s weird to see stuff that was close to $11 3 weeks ago in the 9.90s. Unless CCIV really was a huge last hurrah If the reason the DAs are lovely is because there's too many SPACs eager to sign lovely deals after the hype caused more money to pour into more and more spacs, then the only thing that would reverse that trend is for the sector to get less buyer-crowded
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Mar 20, 2021 00:07
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Does anyone have any clue what’s going on with BTAQ? Both today and yesterday there were huge pops around the same time, for no reason I can see.
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Mar 20, 2021 00:11
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Pilfered Pallbearers posted:Does anyone have any clue what’s going on with BTAQ? They were rumored for Storedot by a message board, that's about all I've seen so far. Very loose speculation and maybe some wise guys loading up?
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Mar 20, 2021 04:03
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Shear Modulus posted:If the reason the DAs are lovely is because there's too many SPACs eager to sign lovely deals after the hype caused more money to pour into more and more spacs, then the only thing that would reverse that trend is for the sector to get less buyer-crowded I think the combination of millions of SPACs getting listed (and the difficulty for any retail investor to keep track of every single one of them), possibly a dilution of retail investor money across a large number of them, a lack of good quality targets, a number of bad takeover deals, and the recent move away from speculative tech stocks has made them suck. Certainly I see no reason why things shouldn't return more or less to normal once this glut subsides.
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Mar 20, 2021 08:23
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SPACs were terrible even before the hype, though. They're not new. What was new was goons yelling that you couldn't possibly lose any money investing in them.
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Mar 20, 2021 13:14
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Oh good, we've hit the "very smart person tells you they knew something was bad all along despite never posting about it  " phase
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Mar 20, 2021 14:36
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Jose Valasquez posted:Oh good, we've hit the "very smart person tells you they knew something was bad all along despite never posting about it More like "the obvious happened"
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Mar 20, 2021 15:03
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Nice rap sheet you've got there, I can tell we should definitely listen to what you have to say.
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Mar 20, 2021 15:17
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Shappa posted:Nice rap sheet you've got there, I can tell we should definitely listen to what you have to say. Is that supposed to be some kind of weird "own"?
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Mar 20, 2021 15:51
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Spacs took a poo poo. It happens. The issue is a glut of spacs, some real overvalued deals and a rotation out of growth. I don't think you'll see the sort of pre-loi or pre-da growth again we saw before. I've rotated into post da premerger stuff that was depressed. And prayer.
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Mar 20, 2021 16:22
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gay picnic defence posted:I think the combination of millions of SPACs getting listed (and the difficulty for any retail investor to keep track of every single one of them), possibly a dilution of retail investor money across a large number of them, a lack of good quality targets, a number of bad takeover deals, and the recent move away from speculative tech stocks has made them suck. It's 95% the latter. Rising rates discount the value of future earnings and SPAC earnings are generally a long ways away. The environment many of us have been trading in since the fall was really the anomaly, with historically low treasury yields making speculation particularly lucrative. That gravy train is over as far as I can tell. I'm sure there are still some great targets in the mix, but I think if we get a few more mergers that immediately tank to $9 and below, a lot of the speculative momentum will exit the space. I actually don't totally buy the logic behind buying post-DA SPACs at discount prices either. I guess if your thesis is that this recent downturn is a blip, then sure, but those companies could just as easily tank after merger. Chad Sexington fucked around with this message at 16:28 on Mar 20, 2021 |
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Mar 20, 2021 16:26
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As long as you buy in near NAV they only need go from $10 to $11 to turn a moderate profit. It’s more believable than just following Chamath the money shaman
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Mar 20, 2021 18:57
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yr new gurlfrand! posted:As long as you buy in near NAV they only need go from $10 to $11 to turn a moderate profit. But they can also go below $10 and stay there for a while, right? The NAV floor applies only if the whole thing falls apart?
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Mar 20, 2021 19:04
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:But they can also go below $10 and stay there for a while, right? The NAV floor applies only if the whole thing falls apart? They can go below $10 and stay there for a while, but even if they have a "successful" merger you can ask for your $10 back instead if it stays below $10 up to the merger. So it's just opportunity cost. That's why they don't tend to go very far below $10, if it dropped to something like $9 you'd have a guaranteed 11% gain that you just have to wait for.
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Mar 20, 2021 19:09
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Jose Valasquez posted:They can go below $10 and stay there for a while, but even if they have a "successful" merger you can ask for your $10 back instead if it stays below $10 up to the merger. So it's just opportunity cost. That's why they don't tend to go very far below $10, if it dropped to something like $9 you'd have a guaranteed 11% gain that you just have to wait for. Interesting. How does one "ask for the $10 back" when buying units via a brokerage?
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Mar 20, 2021 19:12
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Speaking of the $10 floor, have any of these actually gone under $10 after a DA and actual merger vote? What would happen in that scenario where an SPAC acquired some god awful company that the entire market hates, and the price is under $10 at the time the new ticker is created?
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Mar 20, 2021 19:17
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Tetramin posted:Speaking of the $10 floor, have any of these actually gone under $10 after a DA and actual merger vote? What would happen in that scenario where an SPAC acquired some god awful company that the entire market hates, and the price is under $10 at the time the new ticker is created? Clvr hit 8 right after merger. I loaded the truck.
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Mar 20, 2021 19:37
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Tetramin posted:Speaking of the $10 floor, have any of these actually gone under $10 after a DA and actual merger vote? What would happen in that scenario where an SPAC acquired some god awful company that the entire market hates, and the price is under $10 at the time the new ticker is created? Probably somewhat depends on your broker, but ahead of the merger as a stockholder you should get a packet for the merger vote and that should tell you the process for redemption Here's someone who did it for CCXX which dropped as low as $9 leading up to the merger: https://optionsly.substack.com/p/redeeming-a-spac-for-cash
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Mar 20, 2021 19:41
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:Interesting. How does one "ask for the $10 back" when buying units via a brokerage? Read the prospectus. Redemptions have a huge impact on SPACs. You all need read this report from Stanford and NYU law: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3720919. "A key feature of SPACs is their generous redemption right. At the time a merger is proposed, shareholders can redeem their shares for the $10 priceof units sold in the SPAC’s IPO, plus interest—and keep their warrants and rights to boot. This redemption right raises the possibility that, when a SPAC merges, it will have to obtain new equity to meet a target’s cash needs. In this section, we analyze the extent to which SPAC shareholders redeem their shares, and the extent to which SPACs refinance through private placements."
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Mar 20, 2021 19:41
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