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goddamnedtwisto posted:Could someone just confirm something for me - are the stated efficacy rates for the vaccines the reduction in likelihood of getting severe (i.e. requiring hospitalisation) disease, the likelihood of getting any kind of symptomatic infection, or the likelihood of getting any kind of measurable infection? Or is the reduction for all three actually around the same? And what does this actually do to the chances of a given individual who's exposed? The reason I ask is that non-expert sources will occasionally throw out a "no deaths or hospitalisations" headline about one or the other of the vaccines (particularly the AZ one) but they never seem to back that up with actual proof. Take the “no deaths or hospitalizations in trials” headlines with a grain of salt. The numbers involved are small. If the trial groups had been large enough to get good data on this, we would expect there to be deaths in the vaccinated group. Even spectacularly effective vaccines don’t act instantly. In a large enough group, people would die during the the two weeks or so after injection when the vaccine isn’t yet doing much. For every death to coronavirus, there are many symptomatic infections, so the figures for that are much more robust. Even then, with a confidence of ninety-five percent confidence, the symptomatic efficacy can be a range of ninety-one to ninety-seven percent. Anything in that range is a great result, but nine people in a hundred getting sick is substantially worse than three people in a hundred getting sick. Platystemon fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Mar 21, 2021 |
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Mar 21, 2021 18:05
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You have to remember that a lot of this data is coming out of the U.K.’s successful mass vaccination program and the most up to date figures show it’s a 90% reduction rate in hospitalisation for vaccinated people over the age of 65 + vulnerable people of all ages, after the first dose
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Mar 21, 2021 18:46
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I thought the vaccine still worked on the Brazil thing coz it had the spikes still ?
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Mar 21, 2021 18:52
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learnincurve posted:You have to remember that a lot of this data is coming out of the U.K.’s successful mass vaccination program and the most up to date figures show it’s a 90% reduction rate in hospitalisation for vaccinated people over the age of 65 + vulnerable people of all ages, after the first dose Yeah, it's looking more and more like the UK did the right thing, and that Pfizer/Moderna could have been one-shot vaccines in hindsight, but both companies erred on the side of caution in their trials. edit: could you share a link to where you read this? Want to tell some people. smoobles fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Mar 21, 2021 |
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Mar 21, 2021 18:55
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Bape Culture posted:I thought the vaccine still worked on the Brazil thing coz it had the spikes still ? Yes, but because of their Trump Lite they more or less completely gave up and are just doing the vaccinations because everyone else is. The new guy seems to be first thing towards damage control Jair Bolsonaro is attempting to do. And its everyone's guess how long this competent person has before becoming a scapegoat for Bolsonaro to blame for everything and fire.
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Mar 21, 2021 18:57
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smoobles posted:Yeah, it's looking more and more like the UK did the right thing, and that Pfizer/Moderna could have been one-shot vaccines in hindsight, but both companies erred on the side of caution in their trials. If you're only concerned with very short-term immunity, maybe. If we're hoping for a year, doesn't seem that way.
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Mar 21, 2021 19:00
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You're right, I just meant in terms of getting to herd immunity faster in a place with high vaccine uptake.
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Mar 21, 2021 19:02
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smoobles posted:Yeah, it's looking more and more like the UK did the right thing, and that Pfizer/Moderna could have been one-shot vaccines in hindsight, but both companies erred on the side of caution in their trials. I'm still intrigued by that - like at the time it seemed like an absolutely blatant cheat code to pump up the headline numbers as quick as possible to distract from our deaths going exponential because Boris didn't want to cancel Christmas, and it still feels like that, but now I have to assume they had access to some kind of data at least *hinting* that a 12-week schedule was the way to go. The trials for that (and for the odd little dose/big dose schedule, and a couple of other loose threads from the P3 trials) were definitely ongoing at the time. Still seems like a stupendously risky bet to take, but at the same time it's not like anybody is even bothering to hold them to account for offering actual financial incentives to become superspreaders so that probably gave them the confidence to just go for it.
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Mar 21, 2021 19:05
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There Bias Two posted:Vaccines not being perfect != Vaccines not working. maybe learn to type write. i cant tell what you trying to say because you got symbols in the middle of you're sentence.
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Mar 21, 2021 19:28
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smoobles posted:Yeah, it's looking more and more like the UK did the right thing, and that Pfizer/Moderna could have been one-shot vaccines in hindsight, but both companies erred on the side of caution in their trials. Our figures are kind of weird in that they officially come out every month and March’s is due this week: February’s report with Maths. https://assets.publishing.service.g...bruary_2021.pdf Readable newspaper version. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-uk-hopsital-latest-b1805490.html Daily summery https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
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Mar 21, 2021 19:39
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learnincurve posted:Our figures are kind of weird in that they officially come out every month and March’s is due this week: More particularly, as you mentioned up-thread:  Total cases per day, versus:  Total tests per day Now a lot of that massive spike in testing is home kits being provided to schoolkids but even if you assume only one in ten parents are actually managing to do the tests properly (which is unlikely and unfair) it seems like there just isn't a big reservoir of undetected cases out there, because you'd expect that massive ramp up to show at least some increase in detected infections. You can get a hint of the vaccine effect by looking at the number of new admissions to hospital: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare and there's some grounds for cautious optimism there - new admissions have dropped 90% compared to where they were 70 days ago at the peak. 70 days after the previous peak (3rd April) new admissions had fallen 86% despite similar levels of lockdown *and* the weather giving a big following wind to the reduction at the last peak and the schools still being (mostly) remote at the time compared to (mostly) in-person now. FWIW the amount of hospitalisations compared to the amount of new cases has dropped considerably too, but I have no idea how to account for the time lag between testing and hospitalisation so I can't say if that's relevant or not. It's nothing like conclusive, of course, but it does at least strongly hint the vaccine is having an effect. The real test is going to be what those numbers look like at the end of April when we've all had a chance to visit the combination clothes shop, hairdresser, and doorknob-licking emporium.
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Mar 21, 2021 20:20
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I know a lot of people who have to at home test for work just run them without any sample because if it's positive they have to miss work. Got to make sure you get that negative to send your kids to school too.
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Mar 21, 2021 21:59
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SchnorkIes posted:I know a lot of people who have to at home test for work just run them without any sample because if it's positive they have to miss work. Got to make sure you get that negative to send your kids to school too. Lol what? Wow.
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Mar 21, 2021 22:57
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A lot of schools have switched to only allowing them to take the tests in the dinner hall before either going into class or being sent home, rather than doing them at home now because people weren’t reporting the results.
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Mar 21, 2021 23:10
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smoobles posted:You're right, I just meant in terms of getting to herd immunity faster in a place with high vaccine uptake. ?? I haven't seen anything that suggests anything one way or the other for the length of protection from Moderna/Pfizer 1-dose versus 2. Haven't seen anything suggest length for 2 doses, either.
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Mar 21, 2021 23:19
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There isn’t any data because the vaccine program, even the test phase, isn’t old enough. What they are doing is testing people in the UK and going “holy poo poo after 11 weeks it’s holding steady but we best give a second shot at this point just in case”. Few months time they will have data from enough people who missed the second shot to be able to tell if your immunity holds steady without it.
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Mar 21, 2021 23:30
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Fallom posted:?? A graph about that was posted somewhere on SA a while ago, but don't have it on hand. It very much did suggest that one dose isn't sufficient (must have been based on older data, though. We'll know in the future). Fame Douglas fucked around with this message at 23:38 on Mar 21, 2021 |
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Mar 21, 2021 23:35
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Fame Douglas posted:A graph about that was posted somewhere on SA a while ago, but don't have it on hand. It very much did suggest that one dose isn't sufficient (must have been based on older data, though. We'll know in the future). Rings a bell but iirc it was only measuring antibodies which experts have been saying for a year is a worthless measure of immunity. There's nothing else besides the trials to go off of right now because people have only been getting vaccinated en masse for a few months.
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Mar 21, 2021 23:42
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Can someone smart make an effort post about the various vaccines and variants? Like at least what is currently accepted as being accurate. I know things could change but what is currently known would suffice. I'm talking something like: Vaccine A: 2 shots, X number of weeks between first and second shots. XX% effective based on trials. Vaccine B: 2 shots, Y number of weeks between first and second shots YY% effective based on trials. Vaccine C: Single shot, Z% effective based on trials Plague strain A: X% death rate, more killy than Strain B & C, but not as transmissible/infectious Plague strain B: Y% death rate, less killy than strain A, but more transmissible than A&C And so on. Based on what is currently accepted as accurate, is it even possible to make a post like that thats not a complete crap shoot?
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Mar 22, 2021 01:19
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I don't think there has been any "scientific" data / studies on how the current vaccines work against the variants.
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Mar 22, 2021 01:23
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wesleywillis posted:Can someone smart make an effort post about the various vaccines and variants? For the first part of your question, wikipedia's table at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine#Trial_and_authorization_status is good enough. For the second part - as Hollismason says - there's probably not enough data to say for certain yet.
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Mar 22, 2021 01:27
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:They weren't exactly acting responsibly last year either During last year's spring break 500k people hadn't died of it yet. The partiers last year were ignorant, this year they're malicious
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Mar 22, 2021 01:31
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QuarkJets posted:During last year's spring break 500k people hadn't died of it yet. The partiers last year were ignorant, this year they're malicious I was curious so I looked it up and the US numbers back on March 19 2020 were 15,240 known cases and 239 deaths. Five weeks later (April 26) they passed 1,000,000 cases and a little over three weeks after that (May 22) they hit 100,000 deaths. Daaaamn imagine if everyone had actually been taking it seriously in March. 
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Mar 22, 2021 01:47
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Mulaney Power Move posted:spring breakers behaving exceptionally bad this year. i say use nausea gas on them like they did to protesters in the 60s.
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Mar 22, 2021 01:58
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dwarf74 posted:Apparently they're shooting crowds with pepper balls. that'll harsh their buzz
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Mar 22, 2021 02:03
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It’s Florida. They revel in the heat
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Mar 22, 2021 02:04
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im a native floridian and i say pepper them all! pepper them real good.
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Mar 22, 2021 02:11
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Hollismason posted:I don't think there has been any "scientific" data / studies on how the current vaccines work against the variants. quote:This study found neutralizing activity of infection- and vaccine-elicited antibodies against 4 SARS-CoV-2 variants, including B.1, B.1.1.7, and N501Y. Because neutralization studies measure the ability of antibodies to block virus infection, these results suggest that infection- and vaccine-induced immunity may be retained against the B.1.1.7 variant. As additional variants emerge, neutralizing-antibody responses after infection and vaccination should be monitored.
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Mar 22, 2021 02:24
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dwarf74 posted:Apparently they're shooting crowds with pepper balls. It'll complement the sea salt and mean they're properly seasoned.
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Mar 22, 2021 02:33
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CDC variants of concern
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Mar 22, 2021 02:37
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7of7 posted:Oh there's plenty of 'data' like this report that came out today. Mostly they are about antibodies though so really the only way we'll know for sure is whether places like Israel have widespread outbreaks among vaccinated people. Yeah but I don't know if they've released efficacy numbers?
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Mar 22, 2021 02:38
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So here in Toronto my parents who are in their 70s are eligible to get AstraZeneca shots starting tomorrow. I’m glad they’re getting their shots, but would there any point in waiting for a Pfizer or moderna? Or just take whatever you can get as soon as possible? AstraZeneca is still pretty good right? Most of the bad press is from production delays? And that blood clot thing which ... seems like nothing.
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Mar 22, 2021 02:50
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LonesomeCrowdedWest posted:So here in Toronto my parents who are in their 70s are eligible to get AstraZeneca shots starting tomorrow. I’m glad they’re getting their shots, but would there any point in waiting for a Pfizer or moderna? Or just take whatever you can get as soon as possible? AstraZeneca is still pretty good right? Most of the bad press is from production delays? And that blood clot thing which ... seems like nothing. Any vaccine is a good vaccine, especially for provinces that are leading the third wave (Ontario)
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Mar 22, 2021 02:56
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The best vaccine is the one that's in your arm right now. Get the first vax offered to you as soon as they can give you an appointment. Remember that maximum efficacy takes weeks and weeks to develop after your initial jab so you need to get the process started as soon as possible so 6 to 12 weeks down the road you're protected against whatever the gently caress might happen next.
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Mar 22, 2021 03:11
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Im a rare case apparently. I know its late but I had a lot to take in. Late January I had the virus. And I had to go to the hospital because of it. Its still march and I am still testing positive. Even suffering no symptoms from it; I aim to get the vaccine in time in may. But right now I go to weekly doctor visits to get research done for the sake of people who still have covid long after having it. The good news is that I am not contagious. I still wear a mask and practice social guidelines. I am just as shocked as you are dear reader that I still have this in my body.
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Mar 22, 2021 05:45
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Katamari Democracy posted:Im a rare case apparently. I know its late but I had a lot to take in. My daughter was working on a covid ward last winter and they had patients continuing to test positive many weeks after their symptoms resolved. PNG is in real trouble quote:Papua New Guinea has reported a record number of Covid-19 cases over the weekend as doctors warn that the hospital system is in the brink of being overwhelmed and more people could die outside emergency rooms. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/22/covid-cases-in-papua-new-guinea-triple-in-a-month-as-doctors-warn-of-danger-days-ahead-png Australia committed to sending 8,000 doses of vaccine, which is well short of the 20,000 needed to vaccinate all healthcare and allied health workers. Apart from providing PNG with enough vaccine, we also need to be making sure that FIFO miners are vaccinated. The far north Queensland health system has a limited capacity to cope with this. Lolie fucked around with this message at 06:17 on Mar 22, 2021 |
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Mar 22, 2021 06:01
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Katamari Democracy posted:Im a rare case apparently. I know its late but I had a lot to take in. Interesting. I have a few questions if you want to talk about it. How have the doctors determined that you are no longer contagious? Have you been treated with monoclonal antibodies? Are you not a priority case for vaccination? I would think that would be useful to medical science.
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Mar 22, 2021 06:06
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Katamari Democracy posted:Im a rare case apparently. I know its late but I had a lot to take in. Cool, you're like the girl in 28 Weeks Later serving as a long term reservoir for the virus
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Mar 22, 2021 06:08
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Lolie posted:Australia committed to sending 8,000 doses of vaccine, which is well short of the 20,000 need to vaccinate all healthcare and allied health workers. Apart from providing PNG with enough vaccine, we also need to be making sure that FIFO miners are vaccinated. The far north Queensland health system has a limited capacity to cope with this. For comparison, the U.S. goes through twenty thousand doses in under fifteen minutes and has all of this month, as a continuous average, day or night.
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Mar 22, 2021 06:13
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Katamari Democracy posted:Im a rare case apparently. I know its late but I had a lot to take in. No symptoms, you say? As in, you had the regular symptoms but they subsided? That's weird. I suppose you should be very glad not to be neurologically affected like "long covid" sufferers.
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Mar 22, 2021 08:23
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