Cold on a Cob posted:

Lost another bidding war. This poo poo is exhausting. I could have won but it would be stupid to have bid anymore.

Alctel posted:

Honestly I'd just give up for the next while

The market is beyond insane right now

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

the Conservatives won't get elected by the suburban middle class in Ontario whose votes count disproportionately.

Sassafras posted:

Really, it's all Chretien's fault:
https://twitter.com/g_meslin/status/1373689001866067969

Cold on a Cob posted:

Doing my very best to not get FOMO through all this and stick to my budget. Market could keep going parabolic for a few years, it could crater, it could flatten out for a decade. No matter what happens we're in crazy times. I've stopped having regrets for not buying in 2017/2018 because who the hell could have seen this poo poo coming?

Philman posted:

leftist heap posted:

It's funny cause I thought I was an idiot for buying in 2018 cause I was sure it was the peak and I overpaid like crazy especially for an older place. Turns out I was actually a financial genious.

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/9677-king-george-boulevard-surrey-belvedere posted:

All 275 condos in future tower in Surrey sold in under 72 hours

Heightened condominium demand in Metro Vancouver reaching a level not seen in at least five years has returned.

All 275 units within the upcoming 30-storey Belvedere tower in Surrey City Centre were sold in pre-sale in under three days. The homes were released on Friday and by Sunday all units were sold, according to One Flat Fee realtor Mayur Arora.

“The demand was just so crazy, I’ve never seen anything like this,” Arora told Daily Hive Urbanized in an interview, adding that he sold roughly 20% of the homes in the building.

He says all of his clients were local buyers, and while many were investors, there were also numerous healthcare professionals, such as doctors and nurses. The tower site at 9677 King George Boulevard is just next to Surrey Memorial Hospital, and about a five-minute walk from SkyTrain King George Station.

Arora believes the higher quality design of the tower, more so than others in the area, contributed to the interest for the property, such as upscale finishings, air conditioning in all units, and larger balconies.

The tower is developed by Square Nine Developments, designed by Chris Dikeakos Architects, and marketed by Key Marketing. Construction is now expected to begin this summer for a completion in Spring 2024.

Demand has been so overwhelming to the extent that there is currently a waitlist of approximately 70 prospective buyers.

According to Brittany Reimer, managing director of the Fraser Valley for MLA Canada, the strong demand for single-family detached and townhome properties over the past nine months is beginning to spill over into condominiums.

“As detached and townhome inventory becomes constrained, bidding wars tend to drive up prices. Many buyers will look to condominiums as a more affordable option once they start feeling priced out of the townhome and detached market,” Reimer told Daily Hive Urbanized.

“During the beginning of the pandemic, housing product like townhomes and detached homes offering increased space was primarily in demand. However, as prices have now disproportionally escalated in those two product types, condominiums have become a more viable option for purchasers.”

And she says developers are starting to notice this demand and take it into account for their project launch timelines. Developers are increasingly confident that they can reach their pre-sale financing tests, fuelled by continued low-interest rates and the general upward trend of the market over the past nine months.

MLA Canada tracks pre-sale activity, with their data showing there were five new concrete condominium development sales launches in February 2021, totalling 1,374 units. This was the largest release of new concrete units since November 2018.

So far in March 2021, they have recorded four new condominium and four new townhome project launches within Metro Vancouver, with a combined total of 1,301 homes entering market and consistently selling out with price increases. This heated activity is most pronounced in Surrey, Langley, West Coquitlam, and Burnaby.

Within the Fraser Valley, 10 new townhome and condominium projects totalling 1,049 units have been released. This includes three condominium projects in Langley and three condominium projects in Surrey with a combined total of 1,049 units.

“From a metrics standpoint, we see similar sales volumes and price escalation compared to 2016,” added Reimer.

“In comparison, the market is now being driven by local buyers, as immigration has drastically reduced due to US border closure and other travel restrictions.

rgocs posted:

Everything's fine...

Some great A/C causing these units to fly off the RE shelf.

quote:

Real estate agent Treat Hull compares purchasing a property in Prince Edward County this spring to buying toilet paper last March — they are pandemic purchases that take commitment and patience.

He’s not alone. Across Ontario, but especially within a couple of hours’ drive of Toronto, agents say multiple offers and over-asking prices have become the norm in rural towns and lakeside resorts.

The white-hot property market is the result of city dwellers being freed up to telecommute, historically low interest rates and the pandemic search for space in places where work-life balance seems eminently more possible. Add to that the fact that people who have maintained their employment through the public health crisis suddenly have more savings to spend on a second home.

“County real estate prices have become disconnected from reality,” said Hull. “A few years ago $600,000 or $700,000 was a lot of money here. That’s kind of mid-market now.”

One of his clients, who bought a bungalow in the picturesque town of Picton, east of Toronto, last September for $400,000, received an unsolicited offer six months later for $600,000 – a 50 per cent increase.

“You don’t have to be an economist to know that something is out of kilter here,” said Hull.

COVID-19 has accelerated a trend that started around 2017, said John O’Rourke, broker at Royal LePage Lakes of Muskoka. That’s when people in their fifties started easing into retirement, buying up homes in the Muskokas and telecommuting to work.

“We’ve had 80 sales in January and February. Fifty-one sold over list price,” he said, citing a cottage south of Gravenhurst that drew 71 offers.

“It was listing for $399,000 but it went for well over that,” said O’Rourke. “Anything in the $400,000 to $500,000 range is immediate action, selling well above list.”

Royal LePage expects vacation property prices to rise 17 per cent this year in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, the company said in its 2021 Spring Recreational Property Price Forecast on Tuesday.

As hot as things were last year — and that market was tight — this year will push prices further north, said CEO Phil Soper.

“What it means is that over the course of a couple of years we’ll see the cost of a acquiring a cottage increase by a third,” he said.

The Royal LePage report shows that the price of waterfront property in the Muskokas and Gravenhurst climbed 28 per cent between 2019 and 2020 — from $765,000 to $979,000 – up almost a quarter of a million dollars in one year, said Soper.

Haliburton saw a similar gain of 27.3 per cent for waterfront homes and Kawartha prices climbed 26 per cent, according to the report.

If you’re buying on one of Muskoka’s “big three” lakes — Lake Muskoka, Lake Joseph or Rosseau — “the truth is” $2 million is an entry-level property on an island, said Soper. Many homes sell for $3 million to $5 million.

Chuck Murney, president of the Lakelands Association of Realtors, said the number of homes for sale is the lowest in more than 30 years.

In his district, covering Muskoka, Parry Sound, Haliburton and Orillia, year-to-date sales of non-waterfront property were up 13 per cent. But on the water, there were 180 sales in January and February — a 96 per cent year over year increase.

“It’s still possible to find vacation properties but there’s a shift in expectations of values and needs and wants,” he said. Waterfront properties are selling for more than twice the cost of non-lakeside homes.

About half the buyers he sees in his Re/MAX Parry Sound Muskoka practice come from the Greater Toronto Area. One of the reasons that inventory is so low is that many people who already own cottages aren’t listing them and moving up. Instead, if they’ve got road access, they’re renovating and turning them into four-season homes, he said.

As long as the demand continues, Murney expects prices will head north.

In the meantime, he says clients need to be ready to respond if a listing becomes available and they need to have their financing in order so they can go in with a clean offer. In multiple offer situations, it’s tough to win with conditions so Murney urges his buyers to bring a contractor or home inspector to visit a property with them and prepare for the possibility that, in a 15-minute viewing appointment, that inspector might miss something.

But Royal LePage CEO Soper said vacation properties are “streaky” — they go through hot spells and then they settle down and prices remain stable for a few years.

“This won’t continue. It’s a short-term phenomenon determined by a bunch of things. COVID is part of it,” he said. “We’re in one of those cyclical times when there’s more demand than we have supply.”

Less Fat Luke posted:

As telecommuters bolt to cottage country, Ontario vacation property prices are becoming ‘disconnected from reality’:

700k is now "mid-market" in PEC, christ.

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

When has anyone asked how our kids are going to be able to afford a place to live, let alone a vacation property? No one thinks about the future any more. It's FYGM all the way down and screw everyone else.

quote:

John Pasalis, founder and president at Realosophy Realty, a Toronto-based brokerage firm, often hears from parents concerned about whether or not their children will be able to afford a home one day. It’s a mounting anxiety he felt isn’t properly addressed or acknowledged by governmental bodies.

“The most important thing right now, I believe, is their narrative needs to change…” Pasalis told BNN Bloomberg, “These trends are not ‘just fine’… We need to see, in some ways, more concern from Ottawa rather than just casual indifference, which is kind of what we’re hearing about right now.”

Last week, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the bank was seeing early signs of “excess exuberance”, though added the problem is not as dire as the price increases from 2016 and 2017. The bank argued that home prices were supported by fundamental demand.

Cold on a Cob posted:

I've seen lots of Realtors™ and mortgage brokers yelling about this exact thing on twitter now.

ie. https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1374014173231857667?s=20


etc

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

When has anyone asked how our kids are going to be able to afford a place to live, let alone a vacation property? No one thinks about the future any more. It's FYGM all the way down and screw everyone else.

Noblesse Obliged posted:

You used to be able to put out antifreeze for the little fuckers but the bleeding hearts cried too much

Less Fat Luke posted:

... to ward off realtors?

rgocs posted:

Everything's fine...

Some great A/C causing these units to fly off the RE shelf.

Professor Shark posted:

We declined that offer that came with the weird note and received a long email from their REA on behalf of their client outlining every flaw in our house, including our choice of paint, and ended with a “WHEN you come back to us our [lowball] offer will be significantly lower...”

My partner sent an email telling them not to contact us again and we told our REA we didn’t want to read anything ever again. Our REA agent heard back from theirs and they were very apologetic... that the letter had been an email and hadn’t been hand written

I can’t wait to not have buying/selling a house be part of my life. Prices are crazy and people are crazy.

Sassafras posted:

A block and a half from skytrain, half a block from one of the biggest hospitals in the province? In a deadzone with no hotels and anything that does exist remotely near is probably a hooker dive? That location is probably the single best AirBNB opportunity around. Fallback position if AirBNB gets criminalized is "rent to hospital workers" but every unit in that thing is potentially a $200/night hotel room and sometimes family members of patients will be booking long stays.

Assuming a little bit of downtime, 5000/mo revenue? What did the units sell for?

sbaldrick posted:

Hospital generally have either their own suites or cut deals with hotels for people for long stays, no one pays 200 bucks a night.

Cold on a Cob posted:

I've joked elsewhere that "I'm giving up on buying and forget this noise I'll rent forever" but shitposting aside it looking like that's our preference now. We just don't see ourselves staying in this city for more than the next decade and that throws the numbers far in favour of renting, especially in this insanely hot market with slightly less insane rental costs. We've already owned two properties and sold prematurely for lifestyle reasons as it is, so despite having been here for five years we're obviously kind of flighty.

Anyway, for shits and giggles after I came to this realization I decided to make a simple little spreadsheet to evaluate a property using many of the common indicators for deciding if it's affordable and if it's worth buying as an investment:

Price to Rent Ratio
Price to Income Ratio
5% Rule
GDS and TDS Ratios aka the CMHC stress test
Gross Rental Yield
Net Rental Yield (this one I can't do properly without a lot more inputs so it's more of a hack)

I've shared it here if anyone is interested in making a copy and playing around with it. I put in some default values for a property I almost bought, but the salary and debts are made up.

It's interesting how much I have to raise the hypothetical buyer's salary and the comparable rent for the property I almost bought recently to make it a "good" investment by these traditional indicators. Specifically, from 2350 to 3200 and 110000 (enough to pass the stress test) to 240000. That doesn't mean it wouldn't pay off as an investment but it absolutely means that the anticipated property value appreciation is far and away the only thing that makes it worth buying in this market.

If the music stops, a lot of low-income landlords are going to be in trouble.



Edit: This is as close as I'm going to come to being a housing bear in this thread. I suspect that prices will probably never come down and if they do, it'll be relatively temporary. Much more likely we see things flatline for awhile. But who knows what the future holds.

Philman posted:

I believe your mortgage payment should be much lower for that amount, 460k with a 25 yr amortization. I believe you are $500 ish too high.