(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
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Maximo Roboto posted:Bombing and conquering Taiwan in a destructive manner seems like a bad idea for anything more than simple territorial control. Yeah yeah the entire country's economy is the size of Shanghai's, well China wouldn't want to lose Shanghai either. Why would the PRC want to kill the golden goose, smash a crown jewel, etc.? It's not as if TSMC is the only thing that Taiwan has to offer. its not about the territory, its about shaking the last western colonial fleas off their back. it would do great things for internal propaganda if they could take taiwan and the west backs down
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Mar 24, 2021 02:20
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In France, it is illegal to conduct surveys about the well-being of ethnic minorities, because France is a perfect post-racial society. Muslim and Roma people in France are probably among the poorest groups in Europe, but it's against the law to try to measure how bad it is.
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Mar 24, 2021 02:27
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Rutibex posted:its not about the territory, its about shaking the last western colonial fleas off their back. it would do great things for internal propaganda if they could take taiwan and the west backs down The question of what "taking Taiwan" means and the problem is the assumption it has to be by force rather than simply through economic gravity. Also, the PRC has said before, they are actually not interested in directly administering Taiwan.
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Mar 24, 2021 02:34
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I think 1 country 2 system is no longer on the table after 2019. If it happens it will most likely a 1 country 1 system, no matter what it is called officially. That's my prediction anyway.
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Mar 24, 2021 03:59
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Rutibex posted:its not about the territory, its about shaking the last western colonial fleas off their back. it would do great things for internal propaganda if they could take taiwan and the west backs down I still don't really get why so many people in cspam think taiwan is a colony, yes I know the US is the only country that can flaunt China and sell Taiwan weapons, but korea japan have actual US military bases and strategic coordination in some sense. Taiwan is just a ROC holdout. Was cuba a soviet colony? - cause they had way more connection to the soviet union/more under its thumb than Taiwan does to USA currently
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Mar 24, 2021 05:30
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pdog posted:i’m dumb and just throwing this out there and know it’s incredibly arbitrary but are there any parallels we can draw between the official french position since the revolution that all french people are french and there are no sub national/ethnic divisions and the whole chinese everyone is han kind of idea? this is actually a really good analogy because not everyone who we describe in france today would have been understood as french several hundred years ago there were several regions with their own distinct language and culture that were still much more like france than they were other neighboring countries but today no one outside of historians even knows that any of these subgroups ever even existed because greater france did a really effective job genociding them such a fate is unlikely to befall the ughyurs or any other ethnic minority in china because cultural diversity is baked both into their legal system and their official state propaganda like for a sense of perspective france wiped out minority languages by publicly shaming anyone who dared to speak them in public which is a few steps removed from inconsistently enforcing mandarin only rules in public schools
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Mar 24, 2021 06:02
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Rutibex posted:what does "all french people" mean? everyone who speaks french? does that include the colonies? OP is referring to the fact that at the time of the French Revolution French was the language of only half of the people living in France and due to the ancien régime's feudalism there was no united nation-state. The new revolutionary government and later governments centralized the country and suppressed the other Langues d'oïl along with the cultures of minority groups like the Bretons and Occitans to create a single French identity. One can make a parallel with China and the promotion of Mandarin over other languages like Cantonese. Although China does recognize some regional languages. Uyghur being one.
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Mar 24, 2021 06:06
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Rutibex posted:its not about the territory, its about shaking the last western colonial fleas off their back. it would do great things for internal propaganda if they could take taiwan and the west backs down Yes but presumably they'd take it in a way that doesn't level the place and destroy its wealth
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Mar 24, 2021 06:50
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Antonymous posted:I still don't really get why so many people in cspam think taiwan is a colony, yes I know the US is the only country that can flaunt China and sell Taiwan weapons, but korea japan have actual US military bases and strategic coordination in some sense. Taiwan is just a ROC holdout. Was cuba a soviet colony? - cause they had way more connection to the soviet union/more under its thumb than Taiwan does to USA currently Yeah, I agree calling Taiwan simply a “colony” is reductive. Taiwan very clearly has its own internal politics and the issue of independence is localized. Obviously they are reliant on the US for security and arms, but at the same time, I don’t think Washington is calling the shots even if I am sure there is plenty of influence. Also more than simply destroy Taiwan’s wealth, I don’t know why China would want to get bogged down in essentially an occupation that isn’t necessary compared to simply hashing out a deal because both they and Taipei know even how a blockade would go down. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 06:58 on Mar 24, 2021 |
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Mar 24, 2021 06:52
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Taiwan and China are competing in international imperialist diplomacy games ffs https://twitter.com/redgeo/status/1368876785077809152 though who's playing whom https://twitter.com/MelanesianM/status/1304331537853411330 also these are some plumb battlefields https://twitter.com/GabrioCohen/status/1291154112831279105 https://twitter.com/RAbdiAnalyst/status/1290872502374236161
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Mar 24, 2021 07:38
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I mean, even for the comparably low cost of doing it, it doesn't seem worth the effort to be recognized by Somaliland.
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Mar 24, 2021 07:52
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Taiwan building a naval base in Somaliland to counter China's presence in the Horn of Africa would be pretty funny
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Mar 24, 2021 09:07
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i say we have a dance off to settle it. no war! only four on the floor. the loser has to give up their seat on the U.N. security council https://files.catbox.moe/v7qw6c.mp4 BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 11:21 on Mar 24, 2021 |
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Mar 24, 2021 10:55
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Ardennes posted:Yeah, I agree calling Taiwan simply a “colony” is reductive. Taiwan very clearly has its own internal politics and the issue of independence is localized. Obviously they are reliant on the US for security and arms, but at the same time, I don’t think Washington is calling the shots even if I am sure there is plenty of influence. quote:
This part I don't agree. Mainland wanted a loose confederate talk. It doesn't matter this talk will go on forever and likely not getting to a stage both sides can agree on a deal. It's important this talk happens and both side have a consensus on active talk (and frankly, this is the core spirit of 92 consensus) . However the DPP in Taiwan refuse to engage in a talk. And since DPP is getting control of the judicial system and most of the media, DPP is positioning themselves to become the dominant party for the next few election cycles. This is what China can not tolerate: DPP being a forever party/changing the ROC status quote/taking a side in the Sino-US fight. It really comes down to at some point in the future, DPP (green camp) taking too much of the US side in the Sino-US great power competition, and it will cross the redline for mainland. A lot of people in Taiwan already sensed that, but most of the Taiwanese still don't understand it.
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Mar 24, 2021 11:02
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https://twitter.com/sarhanabdelbsir/status/1374367592727580674       
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Mar 24, 2021 13:36
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a late move by pompeo last year removed the east turkestan islamic movement (ETIM) a.k.a turkestan islamic party from the U.S. list of designated terror groups. it's the regional al qaeda branch.
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Mar 24, 2021 15:34
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Maximo Roboto posted:Taiwan and China are competing in international imperialist diplomacy games ffs Yes, paying small nations to say you're a real country is imperialism. It must own to be the leader of one of these nations and having both the PRC and ROC bending over backwards to get you to say they're the real China but throwing money and other stuff at you. Getting massive parades in Taipei when you visit as the leader of Tuvalu or Saint Kitts and Nevis.
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Mar 24, 2021 15:54
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OhFunny posted:OP is referring to the fact that at the time of the French Revolution French was the language of only half of the people living in France and due to the ancien régime's feudalism there was no united nation-state. The new revolutionary government and later governments centralized the country and suppressed the other Langues d'oïl along with the cultures of minority groups like the Bretons and Occitans to create a single French identity. Peasants into Frenchmen is an incredibly good book about all of this and more, showing the guts of the process of making a country in the way we nowadays use that word
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Mar 24, 2021 16:48
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stephenthinkpad posted:And since DPP is getting control of the judicial system and most of the media, DPP is positioning themselves to become the dominant party for the next few election cycles. This is what China can not tolerate: DPP being a forever party/changing the ROC status quote/taking a side in the Sino-US fight. The KMT looked like a forever party back when it was a one-party state and had all its dirty money, surely they can find their way back to power once the DPP fucks up like Chen did again. Taiwan isn’t Japan with its LDP, it’s more like the U.S. as far as multiparty democracy goes. So lol this is like pundits in 2012 declaring that there will never be a Republican president again or Democrats in 2019 fretting about a permanent GOP dictatorship. Not to mention, both sides will change over time too. Maybe Taiwan is hoping that China’s position will soften over time, and who knows? In thirty, twenty, or even ten years we don’t know what the party leadership’s priorities will be, nor do know what the general mainland public will feel towards war. They will likely still want Taiwan back and the U.S. out, but it’s sort of silly to assume that attitudes won’t shift as generations do.
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Mar 24, 2021 17:07
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:Yes, paying small nations to say you're a real country is imperialism. thats imperialism. also imperialism is when you build infrastructure and give out loans without IMF style requirements for austerity or privatization that are frequently deferred or forgiven
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Mar 24, 2021 17:14
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I don't see how that would change unless you purge the nationalists, one China is a big deal for them and taiwan is their crown
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Mar 24, 2021 17:14
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Grapplejack posted:I don't see how that would change unless you purge the nationalists, one China is a big deal for them and taiwan is their crown I’m not saying it would reverse but it just seems folly to assume present attitudes or trends will hold forever. It could get a lot more fervent as Sino-American relations get really bad and nationalism ramps up. Or maybe tensions will cool down and the PRC will stress the inevitable reunification through economic embrace. Or positions based on events and issues none of us could foresee. RocknRollaAyatollah posted:Yes, paying small nations to say you're a real country is imperialism. It’s a very soft form of imperialism but it probably still qualifies under the dictionary definition, it’s more powerful nations leveraging power and wealth and playing Great Games to extract something from less powerful nations. quote:It must own to be the leader of one of these nations and having both the PRC and ROC bending over backwards to get you to say they're the real China but throwing money and other stuff at you. Getting massive parades in Taipei when you visit as the leader of Tuvalu or Saint Kitts and Nevis. Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic recognizer in Africa is Eswatini (Swaziland), and the relationship is kinda darling. https://twitter.com/MkhoDlamini/status/1169283530943270913 https://twitter.com/MOFA_Taiwan/status/1056763822902394880 https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/08/africa/china-taiwan-swaziland-intl/index.html quote:Ages 3 to 19, the children come to the center as orphans or from poor families; they will leave with an education that includes Kung Fu, Buddhism, and Chinese. Maximo Roboto has issued a correction as of 17:24 on Mar 24, 2021 |
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Mar 24, 2021 17:21
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Antonymous posted:I still don't really get why so many people in cspam think taiwan is a colony, yes I know the US is the only country that can flaunt China and sell Taiwan weapons, but korea japan have actual US military bases and strategic coordination in some sense. Taiwan is just a ROC holdout. Was cuba a soviet colony? - cause they had way more connection to the soviet union/more under its thumb than Taiwan does to USA currently Cuba has lasted 3 decades without the USSR, I'd be surprised if Taiwan lasted 3 years without the US for the following reasons. 1. Assume the US collapses. Without the presence of the US Navy, the PRC would be able to sanction Taiwan similar to how america sanctioned Cuba 2. Unlike Cuba, which is a large island with a relatively small population. Taiwan has a massive population relative to the size of it's arable land. 3. Moreover, Taiwan being a market economy, is far more reliant on international trade than Cuba ever could be 4. Taiwan can't count on the Europeans/east asians pushing back on the embargo due to China's importance to their economies/the relative disparity of military projection capability 5. Without the US military ensuring taiwan's independence, China could use the PLN to place the Taiwanese population under starvation rations. I doubt it would actually come to this, the threat is enough to have Taiwan acquiesce to some form of settlement with the PRC.
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Mar 24, 2021 18:19
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Also I wouldn't call taiwan an american colony in the strict sense. For one thing the island is literally a Chinese colony. Taiwan is a US client state that would fold relatively quickly without it's overlord. Israel by contrast could probably be able to survive without us support for quite a while
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Mar 24, 2021 18:29
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:Yes, paying small nations to say you're a real country is imperialism. I'm pretty sure you can get the same treatment as an westerner if you're a member of one of the north korean friendship groups fyi
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Mar 24, 2021 18:37
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Sorry Dubya, you've been dethroned as America's most dancing like a white person president
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Mar 24, 2021 18:44
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Xinjiang mod feedback thread: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3963156
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Mar 24, 2021 18:48
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Maximo Roboto posted:The KMT looked like a forever party back when it was a one-party state and had all its dirty money, surely they can find their way back to power once the DPP fucks up like Chen did again. Taiwan isn’t Japan with its LDP, it’s more like the U.S. as far as multiparty democracy goes. So lol this is like pundits in 2012 declaring that there will never be a Republican president again or Democrats in 2019 fretting about a permanent GOP dictatorship. My comment on the KMT. IMO the KMT after the bad presidential defeat of last year, should have disbanded and regroup/rebrand as new pro-status quote party with a new name. KMT as it stand has too much baggage, too much "228" "authoritarian past" bad blood for the Taiwanese. You see the DPP now has controlled the media and the narrative, they are basically blaming everything bad on the KMT past doing, even though the Island had the fastest growth during the era of Jiang the younger. As for why wouldn't the KMT climb back to rule? It's possible, but very very hard. Because the Island's politic is influenced by outside force way too much. If Taiwan's politic is left in a vacuum, it would have voted DPP out of the office already, because Tsai's economic performance during 16-20 was terrible. But time and again the presidential election was turn in a proxy cross-strait stand referendum. In this battlefield the KTM will never win again with so much past baggage. Not to mention KTM's current presidential lineup is terrible. So your next question is why doesn't Beijing leave Taiwan's internal affair alone, so to speak, go back to the softer cross-strait stand of 10 years ago, so the KMT has more political flexibility to fight the DPP? My theory is Beijing is on a long term plan to force DPP's hands, has been for a few years since Beijing took a hard line approach to DPP's cross-strait policy. I think Beijing secretly doesn't want KMT to go back to rule. My theory is Xi has been slowly bring up the temperature of the water, slowly being more strict to DPP, slowly pushing DPP toward the independent redline, so Xi will have the mandate from the Chinese people to resume the suspended civil war.
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Mar 24, 2021 19:06
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https://twitter.com/lunaoi_vn/status/1374772315825704969?s=21
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Mar 24, 2021 19:23
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https://twitter.com/DrLiv69/status/1374776214838202373 Checkmate commies *magdumps AR-15 into the air*
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Mar 24, 2021 19:30
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Dreddout posted:Cuba has lasted 3 decades without the USSR, I'd be surprised if Taiwan lasted 3 years without the US for the following reasons. Colony is still the wrong word, even if you completely change the situation I was talking about and make points that are irrelevant. Maybe if you really think Taiwan’s international policy is coordinated with the US in secret you could call it a suzerainty. I think decolonialization implies greater autonomy for the people living there, but the PRC reclaiming Taiwan is the exact opposite
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Mar 24, 2021 19:58
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I personally like Kishore Mahbubani's summary of the Chinese-Taiwanese situation: Has China Won?: The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy (note: published March 2020) posted:The one exceptional trigger for a war involving China is Taiwan. Most of the time, the Chinese leaders have a lot of policy flexibility. There are no strong domestic lobbies to worry about. But the one issue where the Chinese leaders cannot bend and compromise is Taiwan. Any Chinese leader, including Xi Jinping (despite all his power), could be removed if he is perceived to be weak on Taiwan. Why is Taiwan so fundamental to China? There is a very simple explanation. Every Chinese knows the century of humiliation that China suffered from the Opium War to 1949. Nearly all the historical vestiges of this century of humiliation have been removed or resolved, including Hong Kong and Macau. That said, let's see what happens over the next few months. We'll definitely be seeing a lot more of Taiwan in the news this year, especially with the ongoing semiconductor shortage. Hubbert has issued a correction as of 21:10 on Mar 24, 2021 |
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Mar 24, 2021 21:01
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stephenthinkpad posted:My comment on the KMT. There's still time for them to do that, it seems like there's a schism between new and old blood in the KMT right now. Plus there's a bunch of other pan-Blue parties, there could be more or another could get better at it and replace the KMT. quote:In this battlefield the KTM will never win again with so much past baggage. Not to mention KTM's current presidential lineup is terrible. Yeah but what you're talking about applies for the next maybe five years max, politics rapidly changes, different people will come to power, different issues will rise to the forefront. stephenthinkpad posted:My theory is Xi has been slowly bring up the temperature of the water, slowly being more strict to DPP, slowly pushing DPP toward the independent redline, so Xi will have the mandate from the Chinese people to resume the suspended civil war. I think this is very possible, Xi is pursuing the path of brinksmanship to dare his foes to step over the line so he can sweep them up with moral justification. That said, it's kind of funny because at this point I have to wonder if Taiwan declaring independence would mean anything. Forget materially- it wouldn't be even worth a drat diplomatically. The majority of nations will refuse to recognize an independent Taiwan for fear of upsetting China, and China as a P5 member will just block any attempt at U.N. recognition. Just ask Kosovo what international recognition is worth when that happens: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Kosovo Not that the PRC wouldn't use it as pretext for war, though. It's just funny how meaningless it is now, even symbolically.
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Mar 24, 2021 22:53
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Found this posted on my feed today, decided to do a little digging            It's not nearly as easy to find information on groups like "Keep Taiwan Free" and "Thai New Yorkers for Democracy" because they're small enough that they don't have a website with an About page, and even the NY4HK group has to be linked back to HKDC before you get to the good stuff. It's almost like there's an outer layer of small-time orgs who are one degree removed from the direct State Department/CIA ghouls that you have to get past to really get to the meat of the regime change NGO ecosystem.
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Mar 25, 2021 01:08
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I read Thant Myint-U's last book. He said after the 2007 protest and crack down, which had more protesters killed than the currently one, some Myanmar students organized their own guerrilla army in the Thai-Myamnar border. Some of dissidents would eventually get full scholarships and go to study in US universities. I imagine alot of them would go on to create their own NGO surrounding the State Dept funding. Which, I don't have problem with personally. I have said it before, color revolution has never worked in countries outside of the Western civilization sphere.
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Mar 25, 2021 01:31
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gradenko_2000 posted:Found this posted on my feed today, decided to do a little digging lol they're trying to counter program the anti-imperialism event that day https://twitter.com/answercoalition/status/1374758728843591684?s=20
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Mar 25, 2021 01:47
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Speaking of NED fronts I still haven't heard any conclusion if New Bloom really is a dastardly propaganda outlet or just happens to be edited by someone who used to work for an NED-affiliated group. But, anyway: https://twitter.com/newbloommag/status/1370721310502883328 quote:Either way, one notes that the US has long sought to try and persuade Taiwan to increase military spending and to reform its military, viewing Taiwan as lax in defense efforts and suggesting that it does not view Taiwan as doing enough militarily to justify American efforts in defense of Taiwan. quote:China needs to build adequate lift capacity to transport enough troops to invade Taiwan, something it currently lacks at present. A Chinese invasion would also have to be prepared to maintain a long-term occupation that could face armed resistance—even if Taiwan is often criticized for lacking training in the course of its military draft, it is at least true that China has to cope with the hypothetical of armed resistance from individuals that have gone through the draft. This would be a challenge for China, which has not fought a war for more than forty years. quote:The Chinese government could potentially lose tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of troops, on an invasion of Taiwan. The Chinese government would have to shrug off the blow to its political legitimacy from the substantial death toll of an invasion. If American backlash to the comparatively limited Iraq War or War in Afghanistan is any indication, the death toll from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could prove a significant political stumbling block for the CCP. Personally I think the whole "Taiwan will have significant resistance to occupation" idea is wishful thinking from anti-invasion perspectives. How long has it been since the ROC has fought a war? lol at imagining the well-fed docile Taiwanese public and declining military as anything resembling the disgruntled unemployed Baathist army or mujahideen insurgents. That said, it is true that it seems kinda silly to assume that the Chinese public would be okay with their troops getting killed (even if it's not many) in an unprovoked war. And, even if there's nationalist fervor to reclaim the island, do they actually also have the stomach to make war on Taiwanese people, who to them are just a different provincial culture of Chinese people? quote:To this extent, one notes the economic impact of an invasion of Taiwan. China’s economy was already slowing before the COVID-19 pandemic and, given the interrelation of the Taiwanese and Chinese economies, the economic effects of a Chinese invasion could be large. The Taiwanese economy is large enough that an economic crisis would cause global shockwaves on par with or larger than the Greek economic crisis that started in late 2009, much less a crisis of both the Taiwanese and Chinese economies. Economic unrest would be a further challenge to its legitimacy that the Chinese government would have to deal with. That one I agree with on principle. No one knows what it would look like for two economically advanced states to go to war in the modern era, and what it would mean to the economy. I really don't think China would fight an unprovoked war unless it had economically nothing to lose. quote:But China’s current dependence on Taiwanese supply chains proves another obstacle to an invasion, provided Taiwan can maintain this advantage. More or less true, but the PRC's been working on autarky when it comes to Taiwan. Gonna take more time, though. quote:As such, alarmism regarding an imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan is broadly unfounded. That being said, if the conditions are sufficient that China views an invasion as feasible, an invasion is still possible—though there would be warning signs ahead of time that China is preparing for an invasion, as detected by satellite imagery. Namely, it is not politically rational for China to invade Taiwan at present. But, in particular, the centralization of power in the hands of Chinese president Xi Jinping should be a cause for concern, with Xi having his sights set on lifetime rule. All the Xi stuff aside, which is kind of as speculative as it is to analyze what, say, Putin or Trump really wants to do, the anti-alarmism outlook appeals to me because idk this whole Taiwan invasion hysteria sounds a lot like the late '90s after the Third Strait Crisis when all the Tom Clancy's came out of the woodwork to talk about how war was inevitable. I remember talking to some dumb guy back in 2008 who insisted that China was definitely going to attack Taiwan during the Olympics because... all the attention would be on the games? The perfect cover.
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Mar 25, 2021 02:48
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Maximo Roboto posted:All the Xi stuff aside, which is kind of as speculative as it is to analyze what, say, Putin or Trump really wants to do, the anti-alarmism outlook appeals to me because idk this whole Taiwan invasion hysteria sounds a lot like the late '90s after the Third Strait Crisis when all the Tom Clancy's came out of the woodwork to talk about how war was inevitable.  but yeah. just a wild guess, but the comments from the U.S. admiral might just be an analysis of chinese shipbuilding and the trajectory of capabilities hence the language of "could." the U.S. "could" invade cuba, doesn't mean it "will," anymore than china will invade taiwan once the clock ticks over to jan. 1, 2027 unfortunately it's mostly paywalled, but i would read proceedings to learn about the PLAN (and the U.S. navy) because it's written by and for U.S. navy commanders. an annual subscription is $35 so i should buy one and read a bunch of articles about pacific war strategy and make some effort posts about it. there's a whole article this month about political commissars on PLAN ships: https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 03:58 on Mar 25, 2021 |
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Mar 25, 2021 03:55
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watching more chinese TV dance theatre. this is awesome stuff and has an epic, heroic quality. a communist youth league badge at 0:37. later i'll post the legion of steel where 200 guys in hardhats and silver outfits do synchronized moves to electric drill sounds https://files.catbox.moe/71zlda.mp4 BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 10:02 on Mar 25, 2021 |
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Mar 25, 2021 09:55
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https://twitter.com/joshjonsmith/status/1375011715318882307
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Mar 25, 2021 10:18
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