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SlyFrog posted:I agree with all of this, and as a corollary, it is also possible to be financially independent (or, as they called it in my day, rich) and still be interested in making a fuckton of money every year I also agree with everything the former president posted there as well as this. In fact it's much more common than someone actually taking the option to retire early in my own experience. This whole conversation started around the ridiculous disingenuousness of MMM and the like. They behave this way because they are MARKETING to people while performing their day job of producing revenue-generating content, and the group they are marketing to mostly wants to hear there is a path where one day they can walk into work and take a poo poo on their boss's desk and then leave happily ever after because they hate what they do for a living. The attempt to define what "retired" means, at least on my part, is to point out these clear conflicts of interest and discredit someone who is all too often quoted for assembling some ideas like "investment income" and "get rich by not <eating avocado toast/driving to work/turning the heat up to normal room temperature> every day".
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Mar 19, 2021 20:16
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Motronic posted:
This is good and important for consuming media  (I can't remember the code for the sincere thumbs up so sorry this looks snarky) Which to be honest, all FIRE content is essentially entertainment/escapism for the end user so it is massively important to remember it's best consumed in moderation and with a heaping pile of skepticism
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Mar 19, 2021 20:19
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dude think of the savings if i tow my bike trailer to the menards though
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Mar 19, 2021 20:28
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Mistaken post - ignore
SlyFrog fucked around with this message at 20:38 on Mar 19, 2021 |
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Mar 19, 2021 20:34
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:This is good and important for consuming media I feel like we just had a recent counterexample with the livingafi blog which is, curiously, both not rose scented farts that project rainbows, and also curiously, not presenting any sponsored content. What a profoundly unrelated coincidence.
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Mar 19, 2021 20:37
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Which to be honest, all FIRE content is essentially entertainment/escapism for the end user so it is massively important to remember it's best consumed in moderation and with a heaping pile of skepticism I wonder how true this is? I'm not trying to pick nits (I get your general point), but obviously we would not go so far as to say no one could retire early. So it's also an interesting question - what FIRE content is accurate and reasonable? I'll just give one example - the Early Retirement Now blog stuff seems much more statistically grounded, and I sure hope to hell the guy is right (as I am relying on some things he, along with other locations like FireCalc, have come up with). Obviously, the Trinity Study stuff, though now a bit dated, is a staple. It cannot be "relied upon" as by its nature, it points out that it is historical and historical things cannot necessarily be relied upon to continue to hold in the future. But for what it is worth, the entire movement essentially relies upon the notion that you can probably withdraw 4% for a long period of time, and you can withdraw 3-3.25% pretty much perpetually, if the historical standards of the last 150 years continue to hold for the future. Is there any serious doubt as to the veracity of these things (again, not guarantees that it will work, as we can't predict the future, but the underlying methodologies and lessons many FIRE people take from it)? I've always found the people who structure their lives in a certain way to be able to retire early to be fairly suspect (like MMM). My own approach, rather than cut costs and expenses, has been to figure out what my costs and expenses are to actually live life the way I normally do and want to (e.g. not making GBS threads in buckets or saving rain water, and actually buying stupid poo poo periodically that I don't actually need, like expensive kitchen gadgets), add a pretty big buffer (in case poo poo goes wrong, like health issues, or in case I decided I want to go back to school, or whatever), and then figure out a number that would cover that. This seems much safer than deciding I will want to live the same curtailed life at 60 that I might have lived at 35.
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Mar 19, 2021 20:38
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I feel like we just had a recent counterexample with the livingafi blog which is, curiously, both not rose scented farts that project rainbows, and also curiously, not presenting any sponsored content. I don't think FIRE blogs need to be misleading or disingenuous in order to be entertainment and escapism. I think the distinction comes from how the audience uses them. I think of FIRE posts as similar to like... watching a video on dog training, or reading the Marie Kondo book about organizing your dresser drawers. They're designed to be appealing and fun to consume (which is not a bad thing; it's just necessary to get engagement, clicks & book sales), and they can be useful, but they don't directly further your goals without action and may not be useful until adapted to you on a personal level. You need to work with your dog based on your unique bond, get into a routine of folding your sweaters that you'll be able to stick with, and actually form a FI plan that is compatible with your unique income, expenses, and post-FI Goals. I'm not making a comment on the blogs being sinister; just that they offer nothing beyond entertainment until they're adapted to your own personal situation. --- On the topic of actual bad FIRE blogs though, please do enjoy this one with its complete lack of self awareness. A high school friend of mine started a Women in FIRE-themed blog and it ticks all the usual boxes as far as undisclosed family wealth, free childcare, And You Can Too(tm)! https://treadlightlyretireearly.com/tread-lightly-retire-early/ actually the "Transparency" post is where the good stuff is at https://treadlightlyretireearly.com/2019/06/03/transparency-in-blogging-and-life/ GoGoGadgetChris fucked around with this message at 20:48 on Mar 19, 2021 |
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Mar 19, 2021 20:45
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I think the reason FIRE blogs can be so dangerous is because FIREing can really gently caress up your life badly. There's some things where even if it isn't perfect or has an agenda, it probably won't kill you. Like okay, if you buy a bunch of exercise equipment and don't exercise, it sucks and is a waste of money, but maybe you get back on the bike some time later, whatever. If you FIRE, and you don't have your poo poo together, it could literally end with you being financially ruined. One thing I think is downplayed way too often in FIRE communities is how difficult it is to really come back at an older age when you have this 5+ year work gap, and your only real explanation for it is "uh, I retired for a while". I think that is partially a byproduct of a lot of FIRE blog and forum participants being much younger. As I approach 50, I can tell you first hand, it is loving hard to get hired in a lot of circumstances (particularly ones like a recession economy) when you have a golden work history and unblemished resume. Good luck going, "Ooops, I guess I ran out of money, need to work again," at age 50 when you've been retired for 5 years. The risks of actually retiring early, and being wrong, are huge, and I think way too many people downplay it.
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Mar 19, 2021 20:52
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SlyFrog posted:I think the reason FIRE blogs can be so dangerous is because FIREing can really gently caress up your life badly. There's some things where even if it isn't perfect or has an agenda, it probably won't kill you. Like okay, if you buy a bunch of exercise equipment and don't exercise, it sucks and is a waste of money, but maybe you get back on the bike some time later, whatever. Well put. The huge risks from a botched FIRE attempt are absolutely why people can get a bit heated when comparing their methods. We all get a bit more on the defensive when we're in that sweet spot of 1. excited to be doing what we're doing, but 2. maybe not supremely confident in it. Plus, money is just a red hot scorcher of a topic. My three careers have all involved talking to people about their money, and whether it's been across a teller window, a chaise lounge, or a commercial mortgage application, you really feel how much of a stranglehold it has over our every waking moment.
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Mar 19, 2021 21:00
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I think the other aspect there is that in order to succeed you basically HAVE to be a true believer and focus on FIRE at the expense of both other goals and living what one might consider a reasonably well rounded lifestyle. Part of this, a la MMM, is for clicks, but some of it certainly isn't.
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Mar 19, 2021 21:05
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SlyFrog posted:One thing I think is downplayed way too often in FIRE communities is how difficult it is to really come back at an older age when you have this 5+ year work gap, and your only real explanation for it is "uh, I retired for a while". Read the Kitces article "why most retirees will never draw down their retirement portfolio ", the data is interesting to see. LeanFIRE aside, most withdrawal strategies are very conservative. I think most people who can manage to earn and save enough to retire early are resourceful and skilled enough to figure out some income if portfolios dip. In modeling this, even an extra 10-20k a year could support a huge drop in portfolio assets in a market crash before the recovery. And with a year or two of expenses to rely on, I have what, a couple years of runway to find a minimum wage job? It's really not that hard. And I speak from a bit of experience here, since I took a few years off and came back into a completely different field after that hiatus. I think some people overestimate how hard it is, especially if you don't need a huge salary. The true worst case of health problems is disingenuous to me - this is something that would destroy anyone's finances, working or FIREd. Like has been said in this thread, you can't plan for every eventuality.
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Mar 19, 2021 22:43
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I know there's plenty of non-financial reasons to not leave your country, but just retiring to somewhere with socialized healthcare must have a massive impact on your required savings, right? Do any of the FIRE blogs go into it? Of course, it can be difficult to do, but so is recovering from medical bankruptcy.
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Mar 19, 2021 23:03
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moana posted:This I would disagree with. On a couple of points: I'm not sure we disagree, it is a matter of timing and scale. I definitely agree that most people will eventually likely be able to find something paying a bit to try to get them by. Just that for most software engineers retiring early because they made $200k a year and retired at 38, it's going to be a bitter pill to swallow to start working again for $30k. And I also do think the timing really matters. Retire at 35 and need to get back in the game at 38? Much different than retiring at 46 and needing to get back in at 57. Sequence of returns should hopefully let you know faster than that, but not always. moana posted:The true worst case of health problems is disingenuous to me - this is something that would destroy anyone's finances, working or FIREd. Like has been said in this thread, you can't plan for every eventuality. Absolutely. I actually read these ridiculous FIRE posts by people with like $5mm in available assets, who aren't retiring simply because they are terrified of some healthcare disaster. At some point, people just turn things into boogeymen. As I have said before, there is also a cost to being too conservative. Being miserable working a job you hate for a lot of extra years of your life because you might get cancer some day and the insurance might not pay all of it, and you only have $5mm starts to seem a little silly.
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Mar 19, 2021 23:19
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at some point you can pay OOP for pretty dope health insurance
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Mar 20, 2021 01:59
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Which is something that anyone who isn't judgement proof really should have figured out long before considering working less than full time in the US.
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Mar 20, 2021 02:01
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:at some point you can pay OOP for pretty dope health insurance Yep. People don't want to recognize it though. Ultimately, even the dread ObamaCare plans still have out of pocket maxes and similar protections that make the crippling health event far less likely to bankrupt you. But people like to complain and fret. (Not that there isn't plenty that really is hosed up in the U.S. healthcare system.)
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Mar 20, 2021 02:07
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If you plan it right it's not a bitter pill to work for $30k if your investments supplement your income. That $30k (net) income is equivalent to $1m in invested assets.
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Mar 20, 2021 08:16
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Mantle posted:If you plan it right it's not a bitter pill to work for $30k if your investments supplement your income. That $30k (net) income is equivalent to $1m in invested assets. I mean, if you made $500k a year previously, and had spent the last 10 years doing whatever you want, then for a lot of people working in an Amazon warehouse for $30k a year because their investments ran out (or weren't enough and need to be supplemented) is gonna kind of suck. Please understand - I'm not saying there's literally nothing you can possibly do. But there's a difference between "I could probably figure out how to get by" and "This is fun". SlyFrog fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Mar 20, 2021 |
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Mar 20, 2021 13:32
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Also, from what I understand, if you truly are living near the poverty line on only passive income because you are a crazy, you qualify for a number of benefits intended to help people who are at that line and working full time jobs.
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Mar 20, 2021 13:40
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Space Gopher posted:It's not that most people find deep philosophical meaning and purpose in their work. It's that their work provides structure, some level of intellectual stimulation (even just filling out forms is better than having the TV yell at you), and most importantly, a distraction from wondering about that "meaning of life" stuff. poo poo, I turned 30 last year and I don’t have the last part, and I can already tell I’m on the downturn because of it.  As for retirement, I’ve always thought of it as retiring from something, like in all those action movies where the hero is retired from Black Ops Whatever and specs their days building treehouses or helping raise their grandkids. Retirement is a transitive verb. Pollyanna fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Mar 22, 2021 |
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Mar 22, 2021 15:21
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:95% of my coworkers at every job have been living paycheck to paycheck That is horrifying but also I think I know why sidelong-glance-at-student-loans-mortgages-and-kids.
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Mar 22, 2021 15:35
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I don't know if this has already been discussed but I just read this lengthy article that focuses on the other side of the 4% rule, about how in many cases you will end up with many multiples of your starting principal as long as the first 10 years or so aren't bad. It brought up a lot of questions. First off here's the article: https://www.kitces.com/blog/the-problem-with-fireing-at-4-and-the-need-for-flexible-spending-rules/ And for the sake of discussion just take full retirement out of the question here, because if you are never working again this is meaningless since you need the worst case scenario. But his take is that if you are flexible enough to work on or even before you hit your FI number, you can essentially bet on the high probability that your long retirement period will work to your benefit and get a headstart on withdrawals with the caveat that if the first decade is a downturn, you can supplement your income until it turns around. One of his strategies for doing that is what he calls ratcheting, where you start at a fixed withdrawal rate and check back every 3 years, if your principal is a certain amount higher than you started you can ratchet up the withdrawals (% of the higher principal now). The interesting thing is you never have to ratchet down if you are using 3.5% because that should technically be safe for any length of time (so i've read). Anyway this is all appealing to me because I never really planned on not working ever again, and I love the idea that you might luck out and not have to, rather than wait until you actually hit the 3.5%.
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Mar 24, 2021 14:21
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As was noted earlier, your ability to earn money by going back into the workforce is severely diminished so the danger is if you're already marginal you could face drastic life choices trying to ratchet down far enough to survive. You might be forced to move somewhere less expensive or make other quality of life sacrifices on the spending side as you have less options on the earning side.
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Mar 24, 2021 15:24
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Also, since it's been about 7 years since my first post in here I do want to say in retrospect that while I don't think FIRE is a scam it DOES require such a confluence of circumstances and personality that it's extremely unlikely for the vast majority of people and I think it's pretty unethical how broadly marketed it is. People are pretty desperate for the way out of the system they were born into and people are selling this as an escape that you can achieve with hard work and discipline when it's really more like winning the lottery. I'm such an outlier in so many various ways - white, no kids, in IT as a high earner, saves more than half earnings entire adult working career, in my early 40s, and I'm STILL only around the "marginal FIRE" level in terms of savings. I've had nearly every advantage AND personality that is comfortable with frugal living and inexpensive hobbies and I'm still probably going to be working at least part time through the next decade and ease into it. Doing it without all of the above borders on the impossible and it's so far above the average that it's criminal to suggest people can follow the footsteps.
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Mar 24, 2021 15:36
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Bhodi posted:Also, since it's been about 7 years since my first post in here I do want to say in retrospect that while I don't think FIRE is a scam it DOES require such a confluence of circumstances and personality that it's extremely unlikely for the vast majority of people and I think it's pretty unethical how broadly marketed it is. People are pretty desperate for the way out of the system they were born into and people are selling this as an escape that you can achieve with hard work and discipline when it's really more like winning the lottery. This is really bad advice for keeping your blog ad revenue and book sales high enough to remain "retired" as a FIRE celebrity.
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Mar 24, 2021 15:56
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I don't read MMM anymore since he only had enough content for about 10 posts, but isn't his whole thing that he only spends $20k a year or whatever? I can see why some people would go "a ha, gotcha! your blog makes a million bucks every month!!" but if the blog is about how to live on $20k a year, and he spends $20k a year... I dunno, seems on brand.
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Mar 24, 2021 16:09
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Bhodi posted:Also, since it's been about 7 years since my first post in here I do want to say in retrospect that while I don't think FIRE is a scam it DOES require such a confluence of circumstances and personality that it's extremely unlikely for the vast majority of people and I think it's pretty unethical how broadly marketed it is. People are pretty desperate for the way out of the system they were born into and people are selling this as an escape that you can achieve with hard work and discipline when it's really more like winning the lottery. No Wave fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Mar 24, 2021 |
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Mar 24, 2021 16:14
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FateFree posted:I don't know if this has already been discussed but I just read this lengthy article that focuses on the other side of the 4% rule, about how in many cases you will end up with many multiples of your starting principal as long as the first 10 years or so aren't bad. It brought up a lot of questions. First off here's the article: See the "flexibility" section with a bunch of posts here - https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/
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Mar 24, 2021 16:15
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:I don't read MMM anymore since he only had enough content for about 10 posts, but isn't his whole thing that he only spends $20k a year or whatever? I can see why some people would go "a ha, gotcha! your blog makes a million bucks every month!!" but if the blog is about how to live on $20k a year, and he spends $20k a year... I dunno, seems on brand. Except he's bought a car that costs more than $20,000. He's also bought a house, a building, etc. Anything he spends that would be haram for his image becomes a business expense and is therefore just fine. Which leaves you with someone who is a cheapskate with weird habits in their personal life. Which is absolutely the on brand part.
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Mar 24, 2021 16:18
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Motronic posted:Except he's bought a car that costs more than $20,000. He's also bought a house, a building, etc. Anything he spends that would be haram for his image becomes a business expense and is therefore just fine. Which leaves you with someone who is a cheapskate with weird habits in their personal life. Which is absolutely the on brand part. Oh jeez, one of the top recent posts is about a divorce where he tries a little too hard to say that the divorce is in no way related to his lifestyle People are asking a lot of questions about my "The divorce wasn't caused by my blog" t-shirt that are already answered by my t-shirt
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Mar 24, 2021 16:20
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he also like, performatively spends $20k a year. i'm sure he enjoys doing it but at some level it's part of his brand. he also justified buying a random house as some weird leverage / homemade CDO move which is hilarious GoGoGadgetChris posted:Oh jeez, one of the top recent posts is about a divorce where he tries a little too hard to say that the divorce is in no way related to his lifestyle weird how this seems to be a theme with FIRE hardos
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Mar 24, 2021 16:23
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Bhodi posted:As was noted earlier, your ability to earn money by going back into the workforce is severely diminished so the danger is if you're already marginal you could face drastic life choices trying to ratchet down far enough to survive. You might be forced to move somewhere less expensive or make other quality of life sacrifices on the spending side as you have less options on the earning side. There's also an implicit assumption a lot of people make: "I'm a high earner who has worked hard and saved money. Paychecks are roughly commensurate with hours worked and effort. If I need a little extra money, I can easily find a job where I work half the time at half the effort that I used to, and receive a quarter of my old paycheck." Of course, past the first sentence, that is the opposite of reality. GoGoGadgetChris posted:I don't read MMM anymore since he only had enough content for about 10 posts, but isn't his whole thing that he only spends $20k a year or whatever? I can see why some people would go "a ha, gotcha! your blog makes a million bucks every month!!" but if the blog is about how to live on $20k a year, and he spends $20k a year... I dunno, seems on brand. He's definitely had some blog posts where he does typical retired-dad projects like building a fancy shed for several grand, but it's super frugal because he's doing all the labor himself (and his tools are already paid for). It's a perfectly reasonable hobby project for a dude with a six figure income and plenty of free time, but at 20k/year we're talking about some random hobby project eating 10-25% of his yearly income. Like a lot of people, he's very good at justifying why what he wants to do gets to temporarily step outside the rules that everybody else should follow. Same goes for other stuff like his paid off house, or his car (that he doesn't drive much because he is such a super hardcore biker... but there's a huge difference between mostly biking but always having the option to drive on a lovely day, and not having a car at all).
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Mar 24, 2021 16:26
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He's also somehow paying the property taxes and homeowners/business insurance on all of these properties with the same $20k.
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Mar 24, 2021 16:28
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This just reaffirms my stance that all fandoms are terrible, and the more terminology associated with your lifestyle the worse it is. Just accumulate lots of money and find a work/play/spend ratio that works for you, occasionally revising it as necessary Now someone help me turn the previous sentence into 18 weekly blog posts that can be used to pitch Cricket Wireless & Betterment
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Mar 24, 2021 16:29
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the sustainability of your blogging is questionable, what's the hook?
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Mar 24, 2021 16:48
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No Wave posted:High earner, no kids, and saving half+ of income have generally been understood to be requirements for pre-45 retirement. Not sure if white is mandatory. You can have kids - you just have to do the whole "don't let your expenses grow with your income" thing with your kids as well. Because you have money, it doesn't mean your kids have to each have their own Audi. Space Gopher posted:There's also an implicit assumption a lot of people make: "I'm a high earner who has worked hard and saved money. Paychecks are roughly commensurate with hours worked and effort. If I need a little extra money, I can easily find a job where I work half the time at half the effort that I used to, and receive a quarter of my old paycheck." Yep. I think it's also the arrogant assumption of the bright kid type who becomes a software engineer/investment banker/whatever. They truly believe that they're just so gifted, that they'll be able to step back in at 57 if needed and still make good money (if not as much as they previously made) because their talents and services are so superior to what anyone else can provide, because if they weren't, how would they have made all that money back in 2011? Having done a lot of work with wealthy people who struck it rich in a particular business, they really tend to buy into the notion that they are just special, smarter, and work harder than everyone else, rather than that maybe they had a "right place/right time" thing going on that is not easily replicated for round 2. I've seen so much money pissed away in ventures and investments by former business owners who cashed out because they think because they made it big on their previous business, they must be gifted geniuses who turn everything they touch into gold. SlyFrog fucked around with this message at 16:34 on Mar 25, 2021 |
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Mar 25, 2021 16:28
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SlyFrog posted:I've seen so much money pissed away in ventures and investments by former business owners who cashed out because they think because they made it big on their previous business, they must be gifted geniuses who turn everything they touch into gold. White coat syndrome.
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Mar 25, 2021 16:45
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SlyFrog posted:Having done a lot of work with wealthy people who struck it rich in a particular business, they really tend to buy into the notion that they are just special, smarter, and work harder than everyone else, rather than that maybe they had a "right place/right time" thing going on that is not easily replicated for round 2. This is exactly why I’m so bearish on saving for retirement and being a total cheapass. I just happen to be making a decent amount of money, I don’t know if I deserve it or if I can even replicate it in two years, let alone if I un-retire. I don’t trust myself to be valuable forever.
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Mar 25, 2021 16:59
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Pollyanna posted:This is exactly why I’m so bearish on saving for retirement and being a total cheapass. I just happen to be making a decent amount of money, I don’t know if I deserve it or if I can even replicate it in two years, let alone if I un-retire. I don’t trust myself to be valuable forever. Same. Half of me is convinced ill be rendered irrelevant and discovered for a fraud by 50 at the latest. So im saving just in case, and if not ill have a nice pile of FU money so eh
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Mar 25, 2021 17:18
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SlyFrog posted:You can have kids - you just have to do the whole "don't let your expenses grow with your income" thing with your kids as well. Because you have money, it doesn't mean your kids have to each have their own Audi. The avocado toast of having kids. It's not impossible, but it is notably harder. Kids aren't cheap. Child care alone means most people have to pay for daycare or have one parent not working or working part-time at most, then the parent needs to pay for health insurance because they're not working, and so on.
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Mar 25, 2021 17:51
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