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(Thread IKs: fart simpson)
 
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Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Dreddout posted:

Cuba has lasted 3 decades without the USSR, I'd be surprised if Taiwan lasted 3 years without the US for the following reasons.

1. Assume the US collapses. Without the presence of the US Navy, the PRC would be able to sanction Taiwan similar to how america sanctioned Cuba

2. Unlike Cuba, which is a large island with a relatively small population. Taiwan has a massive population relative to the size of it's arable land.

3. Moreover, Taiwan being a market economy, is far more reliant on international trade than Cuba ever could be

4. Taiwan can't count on the Europeans/east asians pushing back on the embargo due to China's importance to their economies/the relative disparity of military projection capability

5. Without the US military ensuring taiwan's independence, China could use the PLN to place the Taiwanese population under starvation rations.

I doubt it would actually come to this, the threat is enough to have Taiwan acquiesce to some form of settlement with the PRC.

6. taiwan is completely dependent on imports for basically all of its energy, so a couple of weeks of blockade and they couldn't even keep the lights on anymore

Maximo Roboto posted:

Personally I think the whole "Taiwan will have significant resistance to occupation" idea is wishful thinking from anti-invasion perspectives. How long has it been since the ROC has fought a war? lol at imagining the well-fed docile Taiwanese public and declining military as anything resembling the disgruntled unemployed Baathist army or mujahideen insurgents.

That said, it is true that it seems kinda silly to assume that the Chinese public would be okay with their troops getting killed (even if it's not many) in an unprovoked war. And, even if there's nationalist fervor to reclaim the island, do they actually also have the stomach to make war on Taiwanese people, who to them are just a different provincial culture of Chinese people?

i like that they give away the game immediately by basically admitting that the real objective of the us in the event of an invasion isn't to defend taiwan's system of government but to bleed china as much as possible

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Junkozeyne
Feb 13, 2012
The insistence that Taiwan has to spend more resources on the military are really strange. Like short of nukes and/or mining the entire island what exactly would that achieve in an actual invasion besides inflating the death count on both sides.

VideoTapir
Oct 18, 2005

He'll tire eventually.

Junkozeyne posted:

The insistence that Taiwan has to spend more resources on the military are really strange. Like short of nukes and/or mining the entire island what exactly would that achieve in an actual invasion besides inflating the death count on both sides.

it would achieve spending more on the military

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020

Junkozeyne posted:

The insistence that Taiwan has to spend more resources on the military are really strange. Like short of nukes and/or mining the entire island what exactly would that achieve in an actual invasion besides inflating the death count on both sides.

Who is insisting that? US actually just want Taiwan spend more GDP on military (meaning buy more used US weapons)

Taiwan is doing exactly the opposite, shorting the drift to 4 months; trying to close down all nuclear power plants and rely heavily on imported natural gas and wind etc.

Junkozeyne
Feb 13, 2012

stephenthinkpad posted:

Who is insisting that? US actually just want Taiwan spend more GDP on military (meaning buy more used US weapons)

Taiwan is doing exactly the opposite, shorting the drift to 4 months; trying to close down all nuclear power plants and rely heavily on imported natural gas and wind etc.

Yeah I mean the usual think tanks/media echoing of "doing their part". Obviously the MIC pushes for it to make sweet money but I mean what internal justification would Taiwan use if they followed the demands. We need the latest toys because ....?

Agrajag
Jan 21, 2006

gat dang thats hot

BrutalistMcDonalds posted:

container ships will dock in taiwan and suddenly PLA troops will come pouring out. invasion! the clock is ticking... countdown... to checkmate.



but yeah. just a wild guess, but the comments from the U.S. admiral might just be an analysis of chinese shipbuilding and the trajectory of capabilities hence the language of "could." the U.S. "could" invade cuba, doesn't mean it "will," anymore than china will invade taiwan once the clock ticks over to jan. 1, 2027

unfortunately it's mostly paywalled, but i would read proceedings to learn about the PLAN (and the U.S. navy) because it's written by and for U.S. navy commanders. an annual subscription is $35 so i should buy one and read a bunch of articles about pacific war strategy and make some effort posts about it. there's a whole article this month about political commissars on PLAN ships:

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings

listening to all these MIC ghouls harp on about china invading taiwan (which is never going to happen imo) is kinda funny after having lived through america invading afghanistan and iraq and bombing the poo poo out of countless other mideast countries to the point twhere children fear clear blue skies and funding/supplying/advising the saudis commiting genocide yemen

and all the hosed up poo poo the cia did in south america

but sure were the good guys and JYNA bad

it really feels like im watching a slow roll of america starting a war with a loving nuclear power RIP world i guess


also as someone not well versed in international politics i view this whole thing as, how would we like it if we had a country that can reasonably be seen as a satellite for an arguably warmongering/hostile nation right on your doorstep? oh wait we nearly started ww3 via cuban nuclear crises

Agrajag has issued a correction as of 15:43 on Mar 25, 2021

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

The US head of SouthCom loves talking about stopping Chinese encroachment in Latin America. lol
https://twitter.com/Southcom/status/1371826351431421954?s=20
https://twitter.com/Southcom/status/1370412634625949699?s=20

Agrajag
Jan 21, 2006

gat dang thats hot
https://twitter.com/delaparcelas/status/1372272770025918470?s=20

THS
Sep 15, 2017

china is opening the veins of latin america

Agrajag
Jan 21, 2006

gat dang thats hot
dude wtf also that who the gently caress is in that audience laughing at all this???

https://twitter.com/sean_ruairi/status/1369798839335542784?s=20

Maximo Roboto
Feb 4, 2012

Junkozeyne posted:

The insistence that Taiwan has to spend more resources on the military are really strange. Like short of nukes and/or mining the entire island what exactly would that achieve in an actual invasion besides inflating the death count on both sides.

Maybe a Swiss type system of militarizing the entire populace for guerrilla resistance

Agrajag posted:

dude wtf also that who the gently caress is in that audience laughing at all this???

https://twitter.com/sean_ruairi/status/1369798839335542784?s=20

lol invading Lebanon- why, to displace Hezbollah? and Somalia because it all worked out so well there last time for U.S. forces

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
I watched a recent South American think tank talk. The woman from SA said china made huge inroad in solar power installation because how much the Chinese solar industry has cut down on the cost of solar panels in the last decade. I remember reading a similar news report from Myanmar as well.

I think its interesting in 2 ponts

1, the solar electrification is shifting a lot of power from the state to the people, since the state now no longer dictate the rollout of the power grid. Although the state still control road building and rural internet.

2, a real super power actually has huge influence of the future direction of the energy market and the energy price. In case of the US, it was whole new source of oil outside of Middle East from fracking; in case of China, it's the new energy market, including solar and wind.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Junkozeyne posted:

The insistence that Taiwan has to spend more resources on the military are really strange. Like short of nukes and/or mining the entire island what exactly would that achieve in an actual invasion besides inflating the death count on both sides.

yes, that's the point

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011

Agrajag posted:

dude wtf also that who the gently caress is in that audience laughing at all this???

https://twitter.com/sean_ruairi/status/1369798839335542784?s=20

well it wasn't 5 years but they managed to do it, well done

paul_soccer12
Jan 5, 2020

by Fluffdaddy
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3127051/biden-pledges-prevent-china-becoming-worlds-leading-country

quote:

Biden pledges to prevent China from becoming the world’s ‘leading’ country
‘I see stiff competition with China,’ Biden says
Biden reiterates plan to convene a democracy summit

hell ya

THS
Sep 15, 2017


US trying to desperately cling to superpower status combined with climate change will define the next couple decades. it will not be good

paul_soccer12
Jan 5, 2020

by Fluffdaddy
it might be

THS
Sep 15, 2017

i hope its good

paul_soccer12
Jan 5, 2020

by Fluffdaddy
same

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
i am sorry but i have to disagree. it will in fact not be good.

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

quote:

“By some measures, China spends more on infrastructure every year than the US and Europe combined,” Buttigieg said. “The infrastructure status quo is a threat to our collective future. We face an imperative to create resilient infrastructure and confront inequities that have devastated communities.”
Lmao

Baykin
Feb 11, 2008
Is there historical basis to the idea that China would be willing to sanction and blockade Taiwan if the US wasn't involved? I'm honestly asking as someone that has only relatively recently started learning in depth about China, so I don't want to come off as a big proponent of Chinese propaganda if I've fallen for it, but from the bit that I've dug into I'm unaware of them acting in such a way. If they have, I'd very much appreciate any examples so I can continue educating myself.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
that's really just an amazing quote. you have to marvel at it

a few DRUNK BONERS
Mar 25, 2016


time to create a new infrastructure measurement system is what I hear

THS
Sep 15, 2017

if buttigieg wants to close the infrastructure gap im all for it, but that will gently caress with the Deficit and none of the money goes to defense contractors so

strange feelings re Daisy
Aug 2, 2000

I'm glad that the "infrastructure week" joke still has legs.

VideoTapir
Oct 18, 2005

He'll tire eventually.

THS posted:

if buttigieg wants to close the infrastructure gap im all for it, but that will gently caress with the Deficit and none of the money goes to defense contractors so

There is no reason aerospace contractors couldn't be making turbine blades.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

THS posted:

if buttigieg wants to close the infrastructure gap im all for it, but that will gently caress with the Deficit and none of the money goes to defense contractors so

The bill will come later but right now we are gearing up for a full Cold War. I honestly think they are going to spend unbelievable amounts of money in a desperate attempt to win.

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

Ardennes posted:

The bill will come later but right now we are gearing up for a full Cold War. I honestly think they are going to spend unbelievable amounts of money in a desperate attempt to win.

Look you can either work on infrastructure or order 40 more $80 mil a piece fighter jets that still don't fly at night or in the rain and can potentially kill the pilot.

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

the creaking american mecha is piloted by the most corpulent failsons

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

AnimeIsTrash posted:

Look you can either work on infrastructure or order 40 more $80 mil a piece fighter jets that still don't fly at night or in the rain and can potentially kill the pilot.

We are probably going to do both but the effect of the infrastructure part is likely going to be minimal. It is going to take 30-40 billion just to get the New York Subway operational.

VideoTapir
Oct 18, 2005

He'll tire eventually.
The only reason this poo poo is so expensive in US cities is because of real estate vampires. It isn't even construction industry graft. Other countries have that and they can still get poo poo done.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

VideoTapir posted:

The only reason this poo poo is so expensive in US cities is because of real estate vampires. It isn't even construction industry graft. Other countries have that and they can still get poo poo done.

Some of it also that we (the US) chose a path that is just really inefficient and maybe unfixable.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 07:05 on Mar 26, 2021

KaptainKrunk
Feb 6, 2006


I mean is there any possible world in which the 3 trillion infrastructure plan ever becomes a reality and isn't watered down to like 600 billion and is all spent on highways?

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

comedyblissoption posted:

the creaking american mecha is piloted by the most corpulent failsons

Evangelicals join the air force so they can die in a f35 and meet god.

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

*crossing the international dateline* we meet god now

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

KaptainKrunk posted:

I mean is there any possible world in which the 3 trillion infrastructure plan ever becomes a reality and isn't watered down to like 600 billion and is all spent on highways?

A 3 trillion dollar bill is both possible (that’s only 300 billion a year btw) and it will be mostly on highways and random non-sense.

Btw the total cost of a f 35 is closer to 110 million with total costs added and the USAF admits it isn’t useful for any scenario where a dogfight could take place and it is really only a strike fighter.

The f-22, which there are about 120 operational and mostly located in the US, would have to do all the heavy lifting. The best I can tell the f-35 was designed to strike non moving targets in Middle Eastern countries with minimal air defenses.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 07:20 on Mar 26, 2021

VideoTapir
Oct 18, 2005

He'll tire eventually.
Gonna invest in paving machines

VideoTapir
Oct 18, 2005

He'll tire eventually.
Isn't it great we as a species decided to cover half the land in our cities with carcinogen reservoirs?

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stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
Is the CA HSR even happening, haven't heard any news in a while.

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