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Yeah now is not the time to be building anything that needs plywood. Government needs to develop like soviet-level mass produced housing out of cob or some poo poo.
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 02:25 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 14:35 |
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Concrete brutalist is back baby awooooooo
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 03:29 |
Noblesse Obliged posted:Concrete brutalist is back baby awooooooo ohhh, bad news... there I know that you can use metal forms and Foam ICF forms instead, but metal ones are expensive as gently caress and require cranes and poo poo
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 03:36 |
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Imagine this: https://www.cnet.com/pictures/the-strange-underground-homes-in-the-coober-pedy-desert-australia/4/ But in an asbestos mine. There, problem solved, you're welcome.
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 03:50 |
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Best to learn how to use Amazon delivery boxes as forms, ain’t no shortage of that crap.
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 07:53 |
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Theres always cinder blocks
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 11:27 |
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Someone less lazy than I am did the math on how long incomes would take to catch up to TO housing prices if the prices stayed flat: https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1381977921838055425?s=20 https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1381978747323232262?s=20 So yeah, if government policy is to protect homeowner equity above all else then the rest of us are straight up hosed.
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 19:21 |
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Cold on a Cob posted:Someone less lazy than I am did the math on how long incomes would take to catch up to TO housing prices if the prices stayed flat: Oh wow, just need to cut home prices by a modest 60%. A guy I work with just accepted a job in Vancouver. He was totally shocked to find out how expensive housing is.
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 19:47 |
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MickeyFinn posted:Oh wow, just need to cut home prices by a modest 60%. Adam Vaughaun already said that ain't happening, so dump everything into REITs and buying real estate. Also how on earth does your colleague not already know Vancouver real estate is insane? Unlike Toronto it's not a new thing...
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 19:50 |
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Cold on a Cob posted:Someone less lazy than I am did the math on how long incomes would take to catch up to TO housing prices if the prices stayed flat: Price to Income Ratio as a hard and fast rule shall forever be stupid. (Important note: discounting from posted rates didn't exist back then to quite the same degree it does now) Being really lazy, 50k income * 4.5 and 50k * 10 (and then assuming 20% down): Same income for both since wage increases more or less equal CPI. So it's more expensive, sure, but not stark raving loony madness.
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 19:52 |
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It's not a hard and fast rule, but it's a good indicator along with others. Now take your mortgages and see what happens when you bump the rates up equally by 5%. Rate increases are a lot more tolerable if you pay less up front with a higher interest rate. Low rates + high prices = more risk, especially with rates this low. This would be much different if Canadians locked in longer than 5 years but generally we do not. Edit to clarify - I meant if you buy in high and rates go up, then what happens in five years? Always a risk but the more principal you owe, the worse it's going to be for you. And I think if rates are at record lows, they only have two directions to go - flat or up. Cold on a Cob fucked around with this message at 20:23 on Apr 13, 2021 |
# ? Apr 13, 2021 20:13 |
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ah yes, let me just buy this mystical 400k toronto property
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 21:50 |
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Cold on a Cob posted:Someone less lazy than I am did the math on how long incomes would take to catch up to TO housing prices if the prices stayed flat: Love that wildly optimistic 5% year-over-year wage increase number. That's a very roundabout way to say "it's different this time."
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 21:56 |
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RBC posted:ah yes, let me just buy this mystical 400k toronto property Hey, original guy's ratios, not mine, maybe he used median household income. I just think "hmm, take away that 30% increase from the just last year and presto, lower payments than halcyon 2000. (I dunno the housing mix in the GTA, but in Vancouver only around 20% of dwellings are SFHs so nevermind even median household income, all that matters for their prices is the 80th+ percentile incomes. Suburbs aren't *that* low but it's hard to track down all the numbers.) And I've said before, I'll say again - rates are only going up significantly if wages and everything else in CPI does, in which case existing debt loads get inflated away just as fast. The 70s and 80s are the aberration central bankers have learned from, not the present which seems to be tracking Japan (but with population growth) better than anything else.
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 22:00 |
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Sassafras, you'd probably prefer the affordability index. It accounts for varying interest rates. It doesn't account for the declining size of homes or the risk of rates rising vs falling so it's still imperfect imo. I'd love to see a version of this for the Toronto and Vancouver areas as this is Canada-wide. It was ~30% in 2000 and was up to ~34% in 2020 Q4. Looking forward to seeing what it is in 2021 Q1 because I assume it's going to be a lot higher, maybe up to 2007/2008 levels (39%). There's also the fact that disposable income was boosted temporarily by the government and that's going away.
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 22:51 |
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Higher prices with stagnant income means more debt and more risk. Current house prices really do have very little to do with income and everything to do with the cost of capital, but the rising amounts of debt relative to income indicates an elevated level of risk, and at this point any small increase in interest rates or downturn in prices could easily push people and investors alike into bankruptcy. We were probably saved this time by massive stimulus by the federal government and rates being pinned on the floor by the BoC but I don't think you can rely on that forever. Ignoring household income relative to prices really is like saying "this time is different", spoiler alert, this time is never different.
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 23:28 |
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This paragraph from wikipedia is probably my favorite:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_economy#The_Financial_Crisis_of_33_A.D. posted:The financial crisis of 33 A.D. is largely considered to be caused by policies that Tiberius took in order to limit the aristocrats' wealth and land-ownership, and done in response to Augustus's massive private and public expenditures. Augustus engaged in lavish spending in the public and private sector, while greatly encouraging land ownership and investment in real estate.[95][96] Augustus thought that all citizens should have access to land and money. As a result, he aggressively engaged in a massive extension of credit into the real estate and public sector, and engaged in riskier and riskier loans.[96] Due to his policies, land and real estate prices rose dramatically, benefitting his wealthy and noble land-owner friends who owned large amounts of property and invested heavily in real estate.[96] Tiberius noticed such collusion, and looked to curb the amount of land that the wealthy and elites owned, as well as control the rapidly inflating money supply. He engaged in heavy austerity policies such as ordering for all loans be paid off immediately, and began confiscating property from the wealthy land-owners.[96] By restricting loans for land purchasing, and the demand to pay loans in full, debtors were forced to sell off their property and real estate, which drastically dropped real estate and land prices.[95] Tiberius' credit restriction policies and the Senate's passing a resolution that people continue to invest in land despite the massive deflation caused the financial markets to collapse.[95][96] To stem the crisis Tiberius provided a huge amount of credit at zero interest which stemmed the tide of bankruptcies and steadied money lending.[97] Wow, like, woah. Where have I heard this before?
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# ? Apr 13, 2021 23:33 |
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https://youtu.be/xfgC_yOm5sw Another young Turks video ringing the alarm bell. As much as we complain in Vancouver because of our poo poo show, it's interesting that it's happening at scale elsewhere too. Can't be all Chinese money launders.
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# ? Apr 14, 2021 04:45 |
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Adam Vaughan is so terminally online and prone to bad twitter fights that surely its only a matter of time before Trudeau cycles him out of cabinet right? right? Everyone on all sides has been cyber bullying him all week.
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# ? Apr 14, 2021 04:47 |
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Femtosecond posted:Adam Vaughan is so terminally online and prone to bad twitter fights that surely its only a matter of time before Trudeau cycles him out of cabinet right? right? He's not even a Minister, he's just a Parliamentary Secretary. While I'm not entirely sure what they're supposed to do, I'm guessing it's more along the lines of making their minister/ministry and government look good rather than spouting off all kinds of stupid indefensible poo poo and rambling incoherently. Precambrian Video Games fucked around with this message at 06:13 on Apr 14, 2021 |
# ? Apr 14, 2021 06:09 |
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So with Steve Saretsky having gone all-in on the Vancouver real estate bull side last year in the face of currency debasement and easy money (wasn't wrong!), I've been amused by how his posts have attracted replies from other aspiring real estate agents who want to appeal to the ... valuable "buyers who refuse to buy until there's a massive crash" segment with the zeal of the famed Iraqi Information Minister: https://twitter.com/bemcwilliam/status/1382460190163755008?s=19 Lol, wouldn't embed - deleted. https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1382450876351074304?s=19 Sassafras fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Apr 14, 2021 |
# ? Apr 14, 2021 23:33 |
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YET ANOTHER high profile ~ luxury ~ condo building switching over to being full purpose built rental. https://twitter.com/vancouvermrkt/status/1382377923320049667?s=20 quote:http://www.vancouvermarket.ca/2021/04/14/bosa-submits-revised-rental-plan-for-west-end-towers/ Feels like a wildly under reported fact for some reason the market for nice luxury condos has completely vaporized and developers have been forced to crawl back to the city begging for modifications to their rezonings to make the projects financially viable again. This means increased heights and making them purpose built rental. Why on earth would the condo market suddenly disappear? Let's have a look at that city report that was hastily brought in to allow developers to fiddle with their rezonings to actually make the finances work again and see what city staff think. quote:Since 2017, local and provincial initiatives have sought to limit the escalation of housing prices And yet all the supply siders on twitter that dragged the tax and the notion that foreign investment was a thing are still insisting that the foreign/spec taxes "did nothing" because oh look house prices have still gone up. If we had listened to the foreign investment deniers and did nothing, we'd have a 191 unit luxury condo development, of which probably 10-20% of that number would have been never hit the local market due a combination of being empty pied a terres and airbnb. Now instead we have 462 market rentals that will be rented to locals. Seems like the foreign/spec taxes did a pretty good job of creating more supply to me. Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 00:09 on Apr 15, 2021 |
# ? Apr 15, 2021 00:06 |
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I've grown a bit sour to Steve Saretsky recently. He still has good insight into Vancouver real estate, but is really really out of his depth when it comes to talking about monetary policy. He also seems like a huge BTC bug now which is another thing that rubs me the wrong way about him. Once again, realtors are not accredited investment advisers.
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# ? Apr 15, 2021 02:51 |
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qhat posted:I've grown a bit sour to Steve Saretsky recently. He still has good insight into Vancouver real estate, but is really really out of his depth when it comes to talking about monetary policy. He also seems like a huge BTC bug now which is another thing that rubs me the wrong way about him. Once again, realtors are not accredited investment advisers. There is rather a lot of Bitcoin triumphalism lately on twitter... I find them worse than every other "my investment did well, I'm a genius" because the nature of having bought into it in the first place is a series of beliefs that effectively make them MLM advocates.
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# ? Apr 15, 2021 03:24 |
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No real surprise that realtors have suddenly latched onto bitcoin with enthusiasm. The investment strategy is not dissimilar from real estate in general in that the product being bought creates nothing of value and the investment strategy relies on selling the investment product to a "greater fool" at some point down the road.
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# ? Apr 15, 2021 19:31 |
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"Douglas Todd: Canadian real-estate market better for foreign investors than locals, admits housing secretary posted:
Hubbert fucked around with this message at 03:28 on Apr 16, 2021 |
# ? Apr 16, 2021 03:23 |
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Noblesse Obliged posted:Concrete brutalist is back baby awooooooo I would prefer if we could not, and instead repurpose the concrete for bubbly 3D printed eco housing over glass bottles
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# ? Apr 16, 2021 04:53 |
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Yeah. I think a few things that often get forgotten are: 1) Foreign speculation on Canadian housing isn't just from China. Rich assholes from the USA and Europe have been doing this literally since Vancouver was founded. But the rich Chinese assholes are a visible minority, so they do attract actual racism, which then gives real estate agents the cover to call out anyone talking about foreign speculation as racist. 2) A bunch of rich assholes have basically bought citizenship through various immigration programs. They then buy a bunch of property, but don't bother to even live in Canada. They do not get counted in foreign ownership stats. They also don't get taxed by foreign ownership taxes, although they may fall afoul of vacancy taxes and the like. 3) As others have noted, foreign real estate speculation is mostly being done through foreign investment in REITs and their ilk now anyway. 4) We're only barely beginning to have laws requiring disclosure of beneficial ownership, so most of the degree of foreign ownership of Canadian real estate is still heavily obfuscated. But good luck getting any of that nuance into the mainstream political discourse.
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# ? Apr 16, 2021 06:41 |
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For what it’s worth, you don’t even need citizenship, you can literally buy permanent residence in a very non-clandestine manner in Canada, and PRs also don’t show up on foreign buyers statistics.
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# ? Apr 16, 2021 08:33 |
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qhat posted:For what it’s worth, you don’t even need citizenship, you can literally buy permanent residence in a very non-clandestine manner in Canada, and PRs also don’t show up on foreign buyers statistics. They ended the "foreign inventor" PR pathway, but I think Quebec still maintains it.
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# ? Apr 16, 2021 14:13 |
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Beelzebufo posted:They ended the "foreign inventor" PR pathway, but I think Quebec still maintains it. This is the major problem. Nine out of ten people who get PR through that route renege on their promise to live in quebec. Just give a $1.2million loan to quebec at 0% interest for five year and you get a PR card. Assuming an opportunity cost of 3% a year, that's a fee of around 190k to avoid the foreign buyer's tax entirely and forever. Frankly it's insane that one part of the country can set their own immigration policy which is completely at odds with everyone else.
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# ? Apr 16, 2021 18:36 |
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qhat posted:This is the major problem. Nine out of ten people who get PR through that route renege on their promise to live in quebec. Just give a $1.2million loan to quebec at 0% interest for five year and you get a PR card. Assuming an opportunity cost of 3% a year, that's a fee of around 190k to avoid the foreign buyer's tax entirely and forever. Frankly it's insane that one part of the country can set their own immigration policy which is completely at odds with everyone else. Especially when it's just an excuse to be racist for the most part, when it's not about maintaining an immigration pathway that the Federal government decided was too risky.
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# ? Apr 16, 2021 18:55 |
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qhat posted:This is the major problem. Nine out of ten people who get PR through that route renege on their promise to live in quebec. Just give a $1.2million loan to quebec at 0% interest for five year and you get a PR card. Assuming an opportunity cost of 3% a year, that's a fee of around 190k to avoid the foreign buyer's tax entirely and forever. Frankly it's insane that one part of the country can set their own immigration policy which is completely at odds with everyone else. That's loving wild, I hadn't heard about that before - $190k is incredibly cheap
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# ? Apr 16, 2021 19:54 |
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Do a search for Quebec Investor Immigrant Program in open parliament and it basically never even comes up. No one can touch the thing because everyone is scared of offending Quebec and accidentally re-igniting the sovereignty movement.
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# ? Apr 16, 2021 20:39 |
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Lead out in cuffs posted:Yeah. Personally, I'm more worried about the fact that the Liberal party is now explicit about their desire to acquire foreign investment over the needs of its voting population.
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# ? Apr 16, 2021 22:22 |
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Hubbert posted:Personally, I'm more worried about the fact that the Liberal party is now explicit about their desire to acquire foreign investment over the needs of its voting population. The one thing the CONS could get traction on Trudeau and they ignore it. Tells you all you need to know that any one we would elect will all have the same priority
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# ? Apr 16, 2021 22:28 |
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Canadians are too invested in housing to vote for a party like the NDP, and the people who aren't do not form the majority. It would literally be signing their own destitution warrant to vote for a party willing to kick rich foreign investors in the nutsack.
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# ? Apr 17, 2021 00:03 |
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Hubbert posted:Personally, I'm more worried about the fact that the Liberal party is now explicit about their desire to acquire foreign investment over the needs of its voting population. Yeah it's basically taking a page from the BC Liberals playbook, which was a big part of what landed us in this mess in the first place.
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# ? Apr 17, 2021 00:12 |
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Our favorite illegal hotel owner trying to pull a Costanza and move back into the forced sale condo. https://globalnews.ca/news/7764277/north-vancouver-hostel-owner-returns/
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# ? Apr 17, 2021 04:23 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 14:35 |
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https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-house-flooding-damage Lmfao. I see this building from Alder every day. This is looking like tens of millions worth in damages. Who would've thought the most expensive new condo builds in BC are also by far the shoddiest.
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# ? Apr 17, 2021 05:18 |