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WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

alex314 posted:

So apparently one of the dudes that supposedly wanted to off Luka was given instructions from his US handlers in a restaurant in Warsaw. I was afraid for a bit that Kremlin forgot to pin some BS regarding Belarus on Poland.

Oh loving lol. Yes they planned a hit on luka In a cafe like their the black loving hand or something

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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Oh loving lol. Yes they planned a hit on luka In a cafe like their the black loving hand or something

The Serbian one? One of the weirder aspects of history is that they kind of won?

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

In Poland the ruling coalition is seeing more and more infighting, even within the state-run media, where a super conservative tv personality Jan Pospieszalski - an old timer that found new success by sucking up to the party in power - was taken off air after his latest discussion program was deemed unethical by the media ethics committee (also de facto party run). Pospieszalki’s program, which didn’t make it to the air, dared to criticize the government’s covid response.

This is emblematic of the current crisis - PiS is in power 6 years now, albeit in a coalition with two junior partners. They’ve achieved all they wanted from their major goals, but are now stuck in a position were to move ahead towards their dream constitutional majority, they need more successes and uniformity than the current system is able to provide. The junior partners are also trying to cash in on their past loyalty, with the problem being one junior partner’s wants are would usually come at a cost to the other. Also, they both hate the prime minister.

The infighting is so bad now, their majority on hot button issues is in question and at any point the junior members can flip on a random votes, out of spite (they’ve done this already). We’re two years out to the next election, but word is the current situation is unsustainable and we could have a vote earlier.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Does anyone in the US or Western Europe even care enough about Belarus to try to coup Luka?

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Mokotow posted:

In Poland the ruling coalition is seeing more and more infighting, even within the state-run media, where a super conservative tv personality Jan Pospieszalski - an old timer that found new success by sucking up to the party in power - was taken off air after his latest discussion program was deemed unethical by the media ethics committee (also de facto party run). Pospieszalki’s program, which didn’t make it to the air, dared to criticize the government’s covid response.

This is emblematic of the current crisis - PiS is in power 6 years now, albeit in a coalition with two junior partners. They’ve achieved all they wanted from their major goals, but are now stuck in a position were to move ahead towards their dream constitutional majority, they need more successes and uniformity than the current system is able to provide. The junior partners are also trying to cash in on their past loyalty, with the problem being one junior partner’s wants are would usually come at a cost to the other. Also, they both hate the prime minister.

The infighting is so bad now, their majority on hot button issues is in question and at any point the junior members can flip on a random votes, out of spite (they’ve done this already). We’re two years out to the next election, but word is the current situation is unsustainable and we could have a vote earlier.
But what would it take to stamp out the political domination by the rural backwater east?

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

Mokotow posted:

In Poland the ruling coalition is seeing more and more infighting, even within the state-run media, where a super conservative tv personality Jan Pospieszalski - an old timer that found new success by sucking up to the party in power - was taken off air after his latest discussion program was deemed unethical by the media ethics committee (also de facto party run). Pospieszalki’s program, which didn’t make it to the air, dared to criticize the government’s covid response.


So you can invite a bunch of conspiracymongers to publicly, and without any challenge, ramble about how vaccines are a mind control plot and covid is a plandemic, but the moment you suggest the government may not be 100% effective in its response you are off the air. Not surprising.

laserghost
Feb 12, 2014

trust me, I'm a cat.

alex314 posted:

So apparently one of the dudes that supposedly wanted to off Luka was given instructions from his US handlers in a restaurant in Warsaw. I was afraid for a bit that Kremlin forgot to pin some BS regarding Belarus on Poland.

Oh yes please, make this happen. I want to see that bankster rat PM making GBS threads himself live on TV explaining Poland absolutely had no hand in preparing coup in Belarus, please do not cut off the gas, for the love of God.

Grouchio posted:

But what would it take to stamp out the political domination by the rural backwater east?

The ol' Ducky kicking the bucket, followed by the most brutal political battle seen by this country

laserghost fucked around with this message at 19:54 on Apr 20, 2021

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1384597999809175559?s=20

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

Brown Moses posted:

We're publishing details of more of the FSB assassination team's activities over the coming weeks, I think we have 5 or 6 more examples to publish of people being followed then falling suddenly and mysteriously ill and we keep finding more and more. These assassinations appear to be regular business for the FSB, and it's not just political figures who are targeted.

Good stuff BM. OSINT journalism is really great and gives me hope. There were some really weird untimely deaths in the past decade of people speaking out against the government and I'm glad that even though slowly and way too late but it's unraveling and there is a tiny hope of justice, or at least that it's made public and the murderers have to live with everyone knowing who they are.

Grouchio posted:

Wait how and for what purpose?

I think the poster is exaggerating the many suspicious deaths of people who fled Russia for one reason or another to the UK, there's been a lot: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43299598
Word on the street is that the British services were really bad about keeping them incognito and safe and they got murdered and it got covered up in part to save face of the british spook agencies

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

mobby_6kl posted:

Does anyone in the US or Western Europe even care enough about Belarus to try to coup Luka?

98% of the US couldn't find Belarus on a map if you held a gun to their head. Including the politicians making the decision.

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

mobby_6kl posted:

Does anyone in the US or Western Europe even care enough about Belarus to try to coup Luka?

Big Fries is salivating at the thought of couping Belarus and installing a puppet regime that will privatize the natural riches of potato

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Somaen posted:

Big Fries is salivating at the thought of couping Belarus and installing a puppet regime that will privatize the natural riches of potato

loving Belgians, I knew it!

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

mobby_6kl posted:

loving Belgians, I knew it!

To be fair, they do apparently have quite the natural reserves of shrimp.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

mobby_6kl posted:

Does anyone in the US or Western Europe even care enough about Belarus to try to coup Luka?

Unlike access to crude oil in the middle east, nobody is particularly worried about their ability to control supplies of potash.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Somaen posted:

Big Fries is salivating at the thought of couping Belarus and installing a puppet regime that will privatize the natural riches of potato

Finally the dreams of piling them bad boys high can be realized

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

OddObserver posted:

The Serbian one? One of the weirder aspects of history is that they kind of won?

I mean it depends on what you define as won. Yes the balkans is not under the guiding hand of the hapsburgs but a lot of serbs perished in the 90 years following the assassination.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

I mean it depends on what you define as won. Yes the balkans is not under the guiding hand of the hapsburgs but a lot of serbs perished in the 90 years following the assassination.

Yeah, and the war was particularly hellish on Serbia. But still, after the war, there was no longer Austrohungary but there was Yugoslavia. Pretty much everyone else from the "winning" side just got a whole bunch of their people killed only to setup a rematch with Germany in 20 years.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


The whole genocide against the Serbs thing in WW2 seems weirdly underreported on

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

aphid_licker posted:

The whole genocide against the Serbs thing in WW2 seems weirdly underreported on
I wonder how much of it is silent payback for Sbrenica by the press corps?
My second assumption is 'was overshadowed by the rest of the eastern theatre and holocaust'

Grouchio fucked around with this message at 06:56 on Apr 21, 2021

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
The press corps is not a unitary entity capable of collective "silent payback".

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


There is a widespread at least implicit / often open categorization of countries into good and bad ones and there's this tendency to not be willing to contemplate that the ones categorized as bad may also have been wronged at some point. I don't mean this as in accepting it as an excuse for whatever lovely thing they're currently doing, just that people are uncomfortable with humanizing someone they think of as an enemy like that.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

aphid_licker posted:

The whole genocide against the Serbs thing in WW2 seems weirdly underreported on

By the Croats? Tito wanted to avoid the subject to avoid exactly what happened later, ethnic conflict inside Yugoslavia. And what Tito wanted, Tito got. Until no more Tito...

If you study the subject it's covered in the literature generally. I recall some mention of a Ustasha leader with a basket of eyeballs on his desk etc. IIRC the Ustasha sort of grossed out even the Nazis hunting Jews, the whole Himmler "we're not *animals*" thing.

But yeah the Shoah and the Reinhard Camps get most attention.

Ed: plus the whole rehabilitation of fascist leaders as anticommunist friends after the Cold War started up eventually led to Reagan embracing some really horrible people. I used to have the book "Old Nazis, the New Right, and the Republican Party" by Russ Bellant and it's a catalogue of horrors.

Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 08:25 on Apr 21, 2021

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Putin, in his address is really leaning on how the collective west does not give enough fucks about how 3 fat nobodies talked in a restaurant for awhile about murdering Lukashenko with no means to do so. Tomorrow they meet and Luka already announced that he made some profoundly important decision, I wouldnt be surprised if its either army bases here (lol @ our military, good job guys) or unifying taxes systems or maybe both with something extra on top.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


Rust Martialis posted:

By the Croats? Tito wanted to avoid the subject to avoid exactly what happened later, ethnic conflict inside Yugoslavia. And what Tito wanted, Tito got. Until no more Tito...

If you study the subject it's covered in the literature generally. I recall some mention of a Ustasha leader with a basket of eyeballs on his desk etc. IIRC the Ustasha sort of grossed out even the Nazis hunting Jews, the whole Himmler "we're not *animals*" thing.

But yeah the Shoah and the Reinhard Camps get most attention.

Ed: plus the whole rehabilitation of fascist leaders as anticommunist friends after the Cold War started up eventually led to Reagan embracing some really horrible people. I used to have the book "Old Nazis, the New Right, and the Republican Party" by Russ Bellant and it's a catalogue of horrors.

Yeah not in the proper literature, after all that's where I read about it, more - at least that's my impression - in the western public consciousness.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Pooty did threaten Europe with terrible consequences they'll never forget, but I fail to see what exactly Russia is able to actually do right now.

Just the fact he's saying it probably means he can do jack poo poo.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Mokotow posted:

Pooty did threaten Europe with terrible consequences they'll never forget, but I fail to see what exactly Russia is able to actually do right now.

Just the fact he's saying it probably means he can do jack poo poo.

No gas.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Gas is propping a large part of the economy, and Europe has been setting up alternative sources of gas and alternative to it for years now. And it wouldn’t be something *that* unforgettable, would it? I think he’s overselling his capabilities here.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


This always is him figuratively pointing at ze nukes imo. Not that he has a clear intention to nuke a guy, but he wants everyone to remember that he has the armageddon button.

laserghost
Feb 12, 2014

trust me, I'm a cat.

Pretty sure now it's about further eroding Belarus and making it a part of a New Russian Union.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Mokotow posted:

Gas is propping a large part of the economy, and Europe has been setting up alternative sources of gas and alternative to it for years now. And it wouldn’t be something *that* unforgettable, would it? I think he’s overselling his capabilities here.

Germany doubled down on, specifically, Russian gas, so no they are on the hook still.

And the EU itself basically decided Natural Gas was "Green" further emboldening a dependency on Russian sourced gas.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?



Is Gas primarily used for heating? Given, it's summer cutting it off wouldn't be that bad? :shrug:

EDIT - ~35% of energy. Ouch.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Gas geben!

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

CommieGIR posted:

Germany doubled down on, specifically, Russian gas, so no they are on the hook still.

And the EU itself basically decided Natural Gas was "Green" further emboldening a dependency on Russian sourced gas.

This isn't that straight forward because capacity to use LNG has been increased, so instead of dependency on Russia we could become dependent on Qatar or some other such fine ally! But anyway, EU can get its gas from multiple sources. Russia can use the pipes to EU only to sell to EU. Russia has the weaker hand here.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Furthermore, the gas deliveries are governed by contracts and penalties, and while it seems difficult, russian state businesses in Europe are all on the hook for any penalties awarded by EU courts. Think petroleum, banking...

Ukraine is completely dependent on the pipeline, because there’s no other authority to call on for help, other than the Commonwealth of Independent States, which is, effectively, Russia anyway. The EU is a joint market with a common legal and financial system, so any economical action can be acted on by the whole block.

That’s why the shooting down if the Malaysian airliner is being proceeded in a court in Amsterdam. Even though Russia doesn’t recognize the jurisdiction, it doesn’t matter, because any money awarded to the families will simply be stripped from any state assets present in the EU.

Mokotow fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Apr 21, 2021

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Is Gas primarily used for heating? Given, it's summer cutting it off wouldn't be that bad? :shrug:

EDIT - ~35% of energy. Ouch.

I still cannot believe they used a nuclear accident at a plant the type of which they don't have that got hit by a once in 500 years earthquake on a faultline type they're nowhere near then a tsunami they aren't in danger of ever being subjected to unless a meteor like, hits the Baltic Sea or something and even then if the generators had been moved from the basement as advised they still would've been ok (another issue German nuke plants don't have).

Owlkill
Jul 1, 2009
Russian gas is a much bigger deal than lot of people realise - as well as Germany you've got a whole host of landlocked CEE countries that are dependent on Russian gas flows. Heck, even Italy with all its LNG terminals still gets lots from Russia until the long term contracts expire and in the meantime they can be left on the hook due to take or pay clauses.

While its true that less gas is used in the summer, this is also when people are getting storage facilities filled up for the coming winter, and this year European storage tanks are a lot more empty than last year, so demand from that will be much higher.

And gas is going to stay important at least over the next couple of decades as a lot of countries (chiefly Germany but Czech Republic and others too) are switching from coal to gas on the way to whatever low/zero carbon alternative we end up with.

The problem with LNG as an alternative to Russian gas at present is a lot of it is still bought on a spot basis, so you end up with situations like we had in January where demand spikes in Asia meant prices there shot up and LNG owners sent their vessels to China instead of Europe. And supply is generally more vulnerable to say natural disasters shuttering the loading terminals on the gulf coast, or things like the Suez canal getting blocked.

Owlkill fucked around with this message at 21:02 on Apr 21, 2021

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
Well at least one positive is that Russia isn't able to discriminate against individual CEE countries (within the EU) by blocking their access to gas piecemeal. So technically Russia can only shut down flow to the EU as a whole, which would be an economic suicide.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Edit: Eh gently caress it, there’s a Germany thread I can post this in

Mokotow fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Apr 21, 2021

Doctor Malaver
May 23, 2007

Ce qui s'est passé t'a rendu plus fort

Rust Martialis posted:

By the Croats? Tito wanted to avoid the subject to avoid exactly what happened later, ethnic conflict inside Yugoslavia. And what Tito wanted, Tito got. Until no more Tito...

Tito also wanted to avoid the subject of his own war crimes, and digging up bones and counting victims too earnestly would raise some uncomfortable questions.

Rust Martialis posted:

If you study the subject it's covered in the literature generally. I recall some mention of a Ustasha leader with a basket of eyeballs on his desk etc. IIRC the Ustasha sort of grossed out even the Nazis hunting Jews, the whole Himmler "we're not *animals*" thing.

The Ustasha regime was horrible, but the basket of eyeballs thing is a myth.

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HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Let's not forget the Belarusian nuclear power plant is closer to going online.

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