Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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Agronox: Feb 4, 2005

pmchem posted:

I have to do other things tonight but where is all that money going?

We need to close the (non-alcoholic) fatty liver gap.

# ? May 18, 2021 00:27

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# ? Jun 8, 2024 10:53

drunken officeparty: Aug 23, 2006

pmchem posted:

great thread, started may 5, but most recent tweets are from today: https://twitter.com/Pinboard/status/1390070962389880834?s=20

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1390070962389880834.html

I bought many max strike long-dated $STX calls last week. it's uh, working out so far

Disappointed this isn�t referring to Chia seed futures

# ? May 18, 2021 00:37

TheKevman: Dec 13, 2003; I thought Mad Max: Fury Road was

so you should probably ignore anything else I say

With all the NAFLD mentions I'd been wanting to bring this up for a while because of $GOON, but for any goons that actually may be wondering about NAFLD or have it (and please don't be ashamed or feel stigmatized if you do) a real simple thing you can do to potentially help it: drink coffee. If you're caffeine-averse through choice or through medical necessity, decaf seems to work just fine as well, but might work to a lesser extent*.

My wife worked in Hep C through a joint program with a major drug company in the Bay Area (roughly 4 years ago now) which focused on underserved populations and the rising prominence of the disease. Multiple experts in her field have begun recommending coffee as a cheap way to help mitigate or even potentially reverse hepatic fibrosis and literally repair your liver*. 2 cups per day, NO CREAM OR SUGAR seems to be the best average, though they tend to believe that more can be better (maybe Oatmilk will suffice, though I don't know :getin:

)

Since the population was underserved and didn't have direct, immediate access to the drugs that can now cure Hep C, the doctors literally began recommending coffee consumption as a means of mitigating and potentially reversing damage as they waited to get them started on the Sovaldi/Harvoni programs. A large majority of these patients began to show lower liver values in follow up bloodwork, enough in fact that a few of the researchers in her area contributed to current literature that details this phenomenon in more explicit detail.

Speaking from personal experience, I tore my rotator cuff, labrum, and had to have part of my clavicle shaved down after an accident. I was in decent shape pre-injury, but gained about 60lbs during sedentary recovery. Admittedly, I was eating much worse during this period due to a pretty severe bout of depression, having gone from an active lifestyle bartender to completely sedentary and sad. My bloodwork values skyrocketed and I was diagnosed with prediabetes and NAFLD. I started eating better and drank 2 cups of coffee a day. Over the next 6 or so months during recovery, my blood sugar returned to normal levels and my liver AST/ALT counts snapped back to well below problematic. Follow ups over the past few years have all been steady, and I usually have about a cup or so of black coffee every day, on average.

My father in law is an alcoholic retired firefighter who drinks probably about a 6 pack of Sierra Nevada or 805 a day every day, no exceptions (we've had some epic card nights where I've lost count how many we've had) and on occasion will take a few shots of Crown as well. He drinks about 4 Keurig pods a day of black coffee and he's pretty much a living legend at his doctors office.

Of course, YMMV and my experiences are purely anecdotal, and I'm clearly not advocating for "just drink coffee and don't go to the doctors, problem solved!" but there are options and NAFLD can and will be a big deal if left untreated. It's not hard to make some easy changes that will help one of the most important organs in your body and your overall health.

Hopefully this helps any of you that are worried about it/have it!

*These statements have not been evaluated by the FDA and I am not a doctor nor am I offering medical advice.

Here's a link if anyone is interested in some research, an easy google search will bring up a bunch more stuff:

https://hrjournal.net/article/view/3696

TheKevman fucked around with this message at 01:06 on May 18, 2021

# ? May 18, 2021 01:01

The Anime Liker: Aug 8, 2009; by VideoGames

I can sorta back you up in that every bit of literature I've ever read about fatty liver disease and recovering alcoholism says coffee, oatmeal, green tea, green veggies, and fruits and nuts. Over and over. Heavy emphasis on coffee.

And not hippie poo poo websites. Like this is from the NEJoM, WebMD, CDC, WHO, etc.

# ? May 18, 2021 02:08

Ubiquitus: Nov 20, 2011

Anyone knows when open for oatly is?

# ? May 18, 2021 02:26

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

good clip of jim chanos on short selling, anyone who buys puts may wanna watch this (embedded at 4:23, fun short ending)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDlyjK8M-Gw&t=262s

note the date it was posted to YT :stare:

# ? May 18, 2021 02:32

djfooboo: Oct 16, 2004

Coffee is also good for colon health :science:

# ? May 18, 2021 04:49

The Anime Liker: Aug 8, 2009; by VideoGames

Someone give me the Aaron Sorkin walk-and-talk pitch on AHT.

It was 80, then 60, then covid hit and it 3.20

Is it expected to return to previous numbers, like air travel and whatnot resuming, or is it a dying thing that just isn't fully dead yet, like cheesy 80s gimmick casinos and hotels?

# ? May 18, 2021 05:41

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

pmchem posted:

great thread, started may 5, but most recent tweets are from today: https://twitter.com/Pinboard/status/1390070962389880834?s=20

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1390070962389880834.html

I bought many max strike long-dated $STX calls last week. it's uh, working out so far

thanks I love that tweet thread.

This in particular echoes, but in better wording, what I've been saying for years, so it's very satisfying to read:

# ? May 18, 2021 06:29

Mr. F!: Sep 21, 2016

A HORNY SWEARENGEN posted:

Someone give me the Aaron Sorkin walk-and-talk pitch on AHT.

It was 80, then 60, then covid hit and it 3.20

Is it expected to return to previous numbers, like air travel and whatnot resuming, or is it a dying thing that just isn't fully dead yet, like cheesy 80s gimmick casinos and hotels?

The reason it was so high compared to now is they diluted their stock, IIRC.

It should gain from where it is now, but I doubt it ever gets above 15 a share unless they do stock buybacks or whatever.

I could be wrong though, someone smarter either confirm or deny this.

I own like 300 shares with a cost basis of 2.64

Edit: I found this article from dec:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232582/000110465920083751/tm2024493d1_ex99-1.htm

They did a reverse split of 10-1.

Mr. F! fucked around with this message at 06:44 on May 18, 2021

# ? May 18, 2021 06:40

Martman: Nov 20, 2006

Isn't a reverse split supposed to make stonk number go up?

# ? May 18, 2021 06:52

Mr. F!: Sep 21, 2016

Martman posted:

Isn't a reverse split supposed to make stonk number go up?

Hmm yeah you're right. It looks like what actually is going on is AHT is trying to eliminate preferred shares, so in Nov 2020 they started offering 5.58 common shares for each preferred share. Which cause the common shares to dilute? I think?

Some Article posted:

What Is Going On?

The crux of the issue here is that AHT is really focused on eliminating the preferred shares, regardless of cost. To give you an idea of how focused they are, we have to take you back a bit. On July 20,2020 AHT offered to convert all preferred shares at the rate of 2.64 common shares for each preferred share. All information is derived from SEC filings which can be accessed here.

This was bumped up to 5.58 common shares in November 2020.

There was a cash offer at both those times, but that was later withdrawn. AHT managed to enroll about 30% of the preferred shareholders by that method.

Approximately 30% of the Preferred Stock (38,388,760 shares) participated in the Exchange Offers, broken out as follows:

Approximately 24% of the Series D Preferred Stock (575,382 shares) participated in the Exchange Offer for the Series D Preferred Stock. 1,814,011 shares of Series D Preferred Stock remain outstanding;

Approximately 37% of the Series F Preferred Stock (1,754,738 shares) participated in the Exchange Offer for the Series F Preferred Stock. 3,045,262 shares of Series F Preferred Stock remain outstanding;

Approximately 27% of the Series G Preferred Stock (1,662,813 shares) participated in the Exchange Offer for the Series G Preferred Stock. 4,537,187 shares of Series G Preferred Stock remain outstanding;

Approximately 27% of the Series H Preferred Stock (1,029,026 shares) participated in the Exchange Offer for the Series H Preferred Stock. 2,770,974 shares of Series H Preferred Stock remain outstanding; and

Approximately 34% of the Series I Preferred Stock (1,857,747 shares) participated in the Exchange Offer for the Series I Preferred Stock. 3,542,253 shares of Series I Preferred Stock remain outstanding.

With 70% of preferred stock still left, the company went into overdrive and started entering into private transactions to exchange common shares for preferred shares.

From December 8, 2020 through December 29, 2020, Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. (the "Company") entered into privately negotiated exchange agreements with certain holders of its 8.45% Series D Cumulative Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share (the "Series D Preferred Stock"), 7.375% Series F Cumulative Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share (the "Series F Preferred Stock"), 7.375% Series G Cumulative Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share (the "Series G Preferred Stock"), 7.50% Series H Cumulative Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share (the "Series H Preferred Stock") and 7.50% Series I Cumulative Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share (the "Series I Preferred Stock", and together with the Series D Preferred Stock, the Series F Preferred Stock, the Series G Preferred Stock and the Series H Preferred Stock, the "Preferred Stock") in reliance on Section 3(9) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The Company agreed to exchange a total of 2,788,035 shares of its common stock, par value $0.01 per share (the "Common Stock"), for an aggregate of 544,177 shares of Preferred Stock.

As time went on, the ratios became more extreme. The Feb 24, 2021 8K showed cumulative exchange at a 5.65 ratio.

Inclusive of amounts previously reported, from December 8, 2020 through February 22, 2021, the Company has exchanged 13,104,032 shares of Common Stock for 2,318,413 shares of Preferred Stock in reliance on Section 3 (9) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

By April 1, 2021 this had morphed into a 6.64 ratio.

Inclusive of amounts previously reported, from December 8, 2020 through March 30, 2021, the Company has exchanged 31,518,816 shares of Common Stock for 4,741,760 shares of Preferred Stock in reliance on Section 3 (9) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

In the last 8-K this had moved up to a 7.38 ratio.

Inclusive of amounts previously reported, from December 8, 2020 through April 15, 2021, the Company has exchanged 43,325,700 shares of Common Stock for 5,868,038 shares of Preferred Stock in reliance on Section 3 (9) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The ratio keeps moving up as each successive transaction is occurring with preferred shares at a higher price and common shares at a lower price. The latest transaction was conducted at an over 11.54 ratio.

During this period, the Company exchanged a total of 6,377,986 shares of its common stock, par value $0.01 per share (the "Common Stock") for an aggregate of 552,448 shares of Preferred Stock.

What This Means For Shareholders

AHT's common share issuance has continued unabated and continues to add a flood of supply to the market. Despite such heroic efforts, AHT has barely made a dent in total outstanding preferred shares since the November open offering.

As of March 11, 2021, the registrant had 103,356,082 shares of common stock issued and outstanding.

This is a fascinating match up of relentless supply meeting an unabating belief in a recovery. Share counts are up 8 fold from the December 2019 number which was before a 10:1 reverse split.

Mr. F! fucked around with this message at 06:59 on May 18, 2021

# ? May 18, 2021 06:57

Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

Liquidated one of my three bfgoons buttcoins, bought 22,000 $GOON @ $2.03 :psypop:

# ? May 18, 2021 11:35

Chadzok: Apr 25, 2002

Hadlock posted:

Liquidated one of my three bfgoons buttcoins, bought 22,000 $GOON @ $2.03

# ? May 18, 2021 11:52

wynott dunn: Aug 9, 2006; What is to be done?

Who or what can challenge, and stand a chance at beating, the corporate juggernauts dominating the world?

Hard to follow that up but I�m staying with my 2500 @ 2.16 for $GOON

# ? May 18, 2021 12:22

Mr. F!: Sep 21, 2016

We are gonna be SO rich!!!

# ? May 18, 2021 12:50

Jalumibnkrayal: Apr 16, 2008; Ramrod XTreme

Mr. F! posted:

We are gonna be SO rich!!!

Literally can't go tits up.

# ? May 18, 2021 13:08

Agronox: Feb 4, 2005

That AHT is pretty interesting. I'm going to do some more research on the preferred.

# ? May 18, 2021 13:21

LLCoolJD: Dec 8, 2007; Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!

LLCoolJD posted:

My T is looking healthy so far today, although it lost its early morning mojo.

"Posts that age poorly"

# ? May 18, 2021 13:59

cr0y: Mar 24, 2005

Make the tweet battery car man

# ? May 18, 2021 14:35

Deviant: Sep 26, 2003; i've forgotten all of your names.

$GOON Price: $2.07
Deviant's Cost basis: $2.08

go man go!

# ? May 18, 2021 14:50

cr0y: Mar 24, 2005

$GOON my top performer today

God things are dull when you don't have any option positions

# ? May 18, 2021 14:58

Elephanthead: Sep 11, 2008; Toilet Rascal

Too the moon, aka a fat man bending over with a sack of my money I will never see again

# ? May 18, 2021 15:02

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

My RIOT call shot up from a 45 loss to like 140 profit for like 1 second around 9:35. RIOT is actually going up despite Bitcoin tanking, I take that as a good sign. June 25th at $39.50 strike. I have time plus it was 40 bux last week!

# ? May 18, 2021 15:03

cr0y: Mar 24, 2005

Maybe I'll add a single SPY call, you know, just as a little treat :3:

# ? May 18, 2021 15:05

Pilfered Pallbearers: Aug 2, 2007

Hadlock posted:

Liquidated one of my three bfgoons buttcoins, bought 22,000 $GOON @ $2.03

# ? May 18, 2021 15:10

Pillowpants: Aug 5, 2006

https://www.smarteranalyst.com/new-blurbs/analysts-top-healthcare-picks-alignment-healthcare-alhc-endra-life-sciences-ndra/

# ? May 18, 2021 15:40

Girbot: Jan 13, 2009

Pillowpants posted:

https://www.smarteranalyst.com/new-blurbs/analysts-top-healthcare-picks-alignment-healthcare-alhc-endra-life-sciences-ndra/

quote:

Bernardino is a 5-star analyst with an average return of 30.6% and a 39.6% success rate.

Guess they cut losses early enough.

# ? May 18, 2021 15:47

cr0y: Mar 24, 2005

I really wish you could buy/sell options on $GOON it seems like a great stock to learn about selling CC's on since I have my own little personal warehouse of inventory.

# ? May 18, 2021 15:54

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

That is the endgame here. Once it pops with the FDA approval and gets options we buy puts and cash out! We are like 5th or 6th now with the 22k and a few other large holding being revealed since the last tally.

Just saying, we are going to screw each other if we all sell off this low volume stock at once, so we should have a plan, from someone smarter than me!

# ? May 18, 2021 16:00

nwin: Feb 25, 2002; make's u think

What factors whether a stock offers options? Just market interest?

# ? May 18, 2021 16:02

Fireside Nut: Feb 10, 2010; turp

Michael Corleone posted:

That is the endgame here. Once it pops with the FDA approval and gets options we buy puts and cash out! We are like 5th or 6th now with the 22k and a few other large holding being revealed since the last tally.

Just saying, we are going to screw each other if we all sell off this low volume stock at once, so we should have a plan, from someone smarter than me!

I think best case endgame is just waiting for a buyout. If they get FDA approval I think a buyout is likely but will probably take a year or two.

# ? May 18, 2021 16:06

cr0y: Mar 24, 2005

nwin posted:

What factors whether a stock offers options? Just market interest?

I thinkkkkk it's a certain price based on the exchange?

Glad I 💎✋'d through earnings.

Moon moon moon rocket rocket

# ? May 18, 2021 16:13

subujun: Mar 31, 2010

I've currently got 5000 @ 2.14 in $GOON. I've made pretty good gains buying and selling it the past few months.

# ? May 18, 2021 16:14

cirus: Apr 5, 2011

Vanguard didn't purchase 1.5 million shares of $GOON 6 weeks ago on a whim.

# ? May 18, 2021 16:16

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

cirus posted:

Vanguard didn't purchase 1.5 million shares of $GOON 6 weeks ago on a whim.

they sure as hell didn't do it as an actively managed investment, either. vanguard owns a lot of stocks and there have been equity inflows to funds recently.

since the start of February, NDRA has just traded high-beta to XBI:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?XBI,NDRA&n=70&O=011000

you all are basically making leveraged swing trades on a biotech equal-weight ETF until there's any FDA news

# ? May 18, 2021 16:20