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Moofia Boss Val
May 14, 2021

K Prime posted:

There's also an implication in the novels that the fascists are deliberately avoiding trying to contact the outside world so that when they reenter the international stage post war they can present the genocide as an act of god and avoid awkward questions.

The other countries should easily know this. They would have spies inside the walls reporting back to them on the situation. They could also send small surveillance drones over (that would be near undetectable) and pretty quickly figure this out too. Even receving/tapping into the television broadcast that straight up talks about how the minorities are fighting would be enough. And if there was some sort of interference that prevented messages from spies or drone feedback from reaching the other countries, they could still use their satellites in orbit, and they would notice that there are only white haired people inside the walls, and there are only non-white haired people outside the walls.

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Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Moofia Boss Val posted:

The other countries should easily know this. They would have spies inside the walls reporting back to them on the situation. They could also send small surveillance drones over (that would be near undetectable) and pretty quickly figure this out too. Even receving/tapping into the television broadcast that straight up talks about how the minorities are fighting would be enough. And if there was some sort of interference that prevented messages from spies or drone feedback from reaching the other countries, they could still use their satellites in orbit, and they would notice that there are only white haired people inside the walls, and there are only non-white haired people outside the walls.

If you consider the geopolitical context of the 90's in the Balkans I think this is a bit more difficult to determine at the time, I think what was happening in the Yugoslav wars wasn't fully understood?; first it does seem to be the case some Albans are in the camps or were fighting on the frontlines (Anja); if they tapped into their news media broadcasts (assuming they aren't being jammed!) they would see the propaganda and have no reason to deny it. During WW2 the Allies likewise didn't really believe reports about the Holocaust until late in the war and this is with them fighting them, not liking them, and having lots of access to intelligence.

It is not at all easy to have irrefutable evidence of genocide; we have for example clear cut evidence of what's happening in China but loads of people on the internet swear up and down those are just "training camps" and any reports of genocide is just CIA psyops.

K Prime
Nov 4, 2009

Also, the Legion explicitly is doing broad spectrum jamming using those weird butterfly looking things, which also act as air denial. That's why they're relying on the weird and side-effect heavy Resonation system.

gimme the GOD DAMN candy
Jul 1, 2007
really though the rest of the world isn't mentioned because it doesn't matter to the story.

Kanos
Sep 6, 2006

was there a time when speedwagon didn't get trolled

Moofia Boss Val posted:

This is what I was thinking for a possible exodus to another country.




The Spearhead members said that they were heroes to the 86s, in which case they'd probably have enough sway to convince the other 86 units to leave along with them. "You know that we have seen the most heavy fighting. We know it is futile. Why not come along with us in search of a better home?"

IIRC also non-Alba minorities have been pushed outside the walls and are on the 86 bases, so picking them up is just a matter of going along the perimeter.

The mechas seem to be able to travel several KPH, and plus it seems that the units are allowed to sally without the command of an operator (Spearhead was operating in enemy territory without the protagonist even knowing about it and apparently it was a regular thing), so Spearhead could leave in the middle of the night, go around the perimeter, and take what people they can with them and be halfway to another country before headquarters starts realizing something is up.

There's a couple of issues:
  • The mechs are cheaply built hunks of crap that break constantly and require constant maintenance and upkeep. I'd wager there's an incredibly high likelihood that trying to take them on a long distance overland journey away from maintenance would lead to them breaking down within a couple of days, tops, and they don't exactly have a stockpile of spare parts to bring with them(they're supplied on the thinnest margins possible, which is why the mechanic keeps yelling at Shin for breaking his poo poo) even if they had the means to transport them.
  • Building from "they don't have a means of transport", they don't seem to have a whole bunch of trucks or anything, so their only means of traveling faster than "on foot" is in tiny, cramped, one person mechs with no storage capacity that they have a limited number of. How would they meaningfully evacuate any number of civilians? I seriously doubt they could move fast enough on foot before someone notices they're trying it.
  • Spearhead and the other mech squadrons are literally the front line that is holding back the Legion. If they suddenly leave their posts, the Legion is going to surge forward, unopposed, super quickly. Even if the Legion gets distracted by cracking open the wall and feasting on the fascists inside, it's still super likely that they'll easily be able to also catch up to a bunch of refugees with no significant amount of food or supplies(so they have to stop to forage) who are fleeing mostly on foot.
  • The Republic, for all of its crimes of its government and ethnic majority, is the 86s' homeland. You can use the same logic for why a victim of an ethnic group in real life that's being targeted by discrimination/ethnic cleansing doesn't just pack up and leave for somewhere where they won't be discriminated against.

e: They also mention multiple "fronts", implying the robots are attacking from more than one angle.

Kanos fucked around with this message at 05:30 on May 24, 2021

Moofia Boss Val
May 14, 2021

Kanos posted:

There's a couple of issues:
  • How would they meaningfully evacuate any number of civilians?

My understanding is that there are no minority population civilians. The entirety of the minority population of the Republic was conscripted as soldiers. They are all on the bases on the perimeter around the inner country. All of the adults have died off in the war and only the children are left as soldiers. Everyone probably has mechas of their own, and if some units don't have enough mechas, they can ride ontop the others.

As for cargo, these mechas are carrying HUGE caliber cannons. The mechas are more than strong enough to carry any additional belonging or food supply.

quote:

  • The Republic, for all of its crimes of its government and ethnic majority, is the 86s' homeland. You can use the same logic for why a victim of an ethnic group in real life that's being targeted by discrimination/ethnic cleansing doesn't just pack up and leave for somewhere where they won't be discriminated against.

During the 1930s, as discrimination against the Jews ramped up, Jews who had lived in Germany began immigrating out of the country to less hostile countries. If Stormtroopers smashed your icecream store or torched your toy shop, you don't exactly have anything left to lose by moving away. In fact, you have only to gain: security, living in a country where you are less likely to be assaulted or robbed. Similarly, if you were a black person in the American South after the Civil War ended, it was a pretty good idea to move out as the lynchings and Jim Crow stuff began ramping up. And there are all of the people who escaped from communist countries: yeah sure Berliners and Russians and Chinese and Vietnamese and North Koreans love the homelands they grew up in, but you're not going to live under the communist boot if you have a choice. There were also the Israeli exodus from Egypt, or the Protestants who fled from the persecution in Britain to the New World. People will forsake the land they grew up in if it is harsh to live there and there is the opportunity to go to a place where things might be better, even if it is incredibly risky to do so.

Ofcourse the 86s would have an attachment to their homeland, but by this point that isn't really a good reason to justify them continuing to hang around. They will be better off literally anywhere else. They have every reason - and conveniently a mode of transport - to move, as well as skills that would be in demand in other countries.

Moofia Boss Val fucked around with this message at 05:43 on May 24, 2021

Kanos
Sep 6, 2006

was there a time when speedwagon didn't get trolled

Moofia Boss Val posted:

My understanding is that there are no minority population civilians. The entirety of the minority population of the Republic was conscripted as soldiers. They are all on the bases on the perimeter around the inner country. All of the adults have died off in the war and only the children are left as soldiers. Everyone probably has mechas of their own, and if some units don't have enough mechas, they can ride ontop the others.

As for cargo, these mechas are carrying HUGE caliber cannons. The mechas are more than strong enough to carry any additional belonging or food supply.

They're not literally all soldiers - there's entire concentration camps where the "civilian" population of the 86s are located. Attrition and casualty rates have led to them recruiting younger and younger, but it's not a matter of "literally 100% of the population is soldiers" - you still have people too old to fight, or too disabled to fight, or even younger children, which it's not useful or worthwhile for the fascists to pressgang into active service(in part because they're more useful as hostages to motivate the others). We're at the "we're conscripting teenagers" phase, which is scraping the bottom barrel of military utility.

Based on what I can find on google about the LN, the guns carried by the juggernauts are 57mm smoothbores, which are basically light WW2 anti-tank guns that weigh roughly a ton. You can carry some supplies with that, but not actually a whole lot, and dumping all of your weapons seems like a poor plan when the Legion is going to chase you eventually.

quote:

During the 1930s, as discrimination against the Jews ramped up, Jews who had lived in Germany began immigrating out of the country to less hostile countries. If Stormtroopers smashed your icecream store or torched your toy shop, you don't exactly have anything left to lose by moving away. In fact, you have only to gain: security, living in a country where you are less likely to be assaulted or robbed. Similarly, if you were a black person in the American South after the Civil War ended, it was a pretty good idea to move out as the lynchings and Jim Crow stuff began ramping up. And there are all of the people who escaped from communist countries: yeah sure Berliners and Russians and Chinese and Vietnamese and North Koreans love the homelands they grew up in, but you're not going to live under the communist boot if you have a choice. There is a reason so many risked their lives trying to flee across the borders to security and freedom.

Ofcourse the 86s would have an attachment to their homeland, but by this point that isn't really a good reason to justify them continuing to hang around. They will be better off literally anywhere else. They have every reason - and conveniently a mode of transport - to move, as well as skills that would be in demand in other countries.

You know, except for all of the Jews who didn't or couldn't leave Germany. Or how the Roma still live in Europe despite sustained discrimination from virtually every European nation. Or how the vast, vast majority of black people did not leave the American South. Or how the Palestinians aren't all fleeing Israel. Or how the Uighurs aren't all fleeing China. Or how the Kurds didn't flee Iraq. Or how there's a ridiculously long list of oppressed ethnic groups who were scapegoated, abused, and attacked by governments and ethnic majorities and did not opt to pull up roots and leave everything they have and know to strike out randomly for a new homeland which may or may not be any better for them than the one they already have.

Hell, that's even presupposing there's somewhere for them to go to be safe, instead of just being next on the Legion's menu once they finish killing all the fascists(which won't take very long once the fascists' slave soldiers all pick up sticks and leave). If there isn't, cutting and running might actually be accelerating their own suffering and death - under the Alba they die slowly and get ground to bits, whereas if they cut and run the Legion massacres the Alba and then comes after them and kills them now that they don't have the Alba logistics base to even attempt to defend themselves. It would simply be switching the order of "86s die, then Alba" to "Alba die, then 86s".

Kanos fucked around with this message at 06:18 on May 24, 2021

galagazombie
Oct 31, 2011

A silly little mouse!
Makes you wonder if there isn’t some way to logic loophole the robots. Tell them “the entire nation of San Antonio surrenders and no longer exists” and get them to turn off.

Talorat
Sep 18, 2007

Hahaha! Aw come on, I can't tell you everything right away! That would make for a boring story, don't you think?
Just caught up on this show and wow, this show is very good and makes me incredibly sick to my stomach to watch.

Kanos posted:

Hell, that's even presupposing there's somewhere for them to go to be safe, instead of just being next on the Legion's menu once they finish killing all the fascists(which won't take very long once the fascists' slave soldiers all pick up sticks and leave). If there isn't, cutting and running might actually be accelerating their own suffering and death - under the Alba they die slowly and get ground to bits, whereas if they cut and run the Legion massacres the Alba and then comes after them and kills them now that they don't have the Alba logistics base to even attempt to defend themselves. It would simply be switching the order of "86s die, then Alba" to "Alba die, then 86s".

Latest episode pretty much makes this explicit too, by saying "no one has ever hanged themselves to avoid the gallows". They keep fighting for one more day.

Bakanogami
Dec 31, 2004


Grimey Drawer
Reading all the wacky speculation is good fun, but since I keep seeing some people getting confused, I just wanted to clarify a few things the LN has detailed by this point in the plot but I'm not sure the anime has:


-The butterflyish Legion they've shown once or twice come in huge clouds and deploy wide-range EM jamming, basically leaving radios unusable in Legion territory. Thus why they rely on the weird telepathic sense-sharing communication, don't rely on remote-controlled drones, and give frontline units a fair degree of leeway in their operations.

-There's another type of anti-air legion mixed in with the jamming ones that effectively cuts off any form of air support.

-While Giad is located to the east, and spearhead squadron is on the eastern front, the republic is effectively surrounded by the enemy, with similar situations on the northern, western, and southern fronts.

-The area within the walls is about 23,000 square km ("about the size of Japan's Kanto region" is the frame of reference used). I don't know if the original size of the country is ever given, but it's pretty heavily implied to be some sort of stand-in for
France, since the name of their capital is literally "Liberté et Égalité", and all the Legion units have German names.

-There are a few maps in the novels, but nothing too substantial. While all nations and so on are fictional, there are obvious real world analogs for them, and there are occasionally references to real world historical events or mythology.

-There's about 100-120 km between the walls and the frontline bases for units like Spearhead. That space includes both internment camps for any noncombatant 86 and the giant gently caress-off minefield they use to discourage rebellion.

-The camps also have minefields, barbed wire, and other fortifications around them.

-Outside of that space is enemy territory, with no one knowing how far the Legion have spread or if there are any other nations holding out.

-The republic has automated production plants to make synthetic food and commodities. There are smaller ones in the camps and bases as well, but the republic controls them remotely and power is provided from within the walls.

-The conventional republic military was mostly wiped out within the first year of the war, before everyone retreated to the eighty-five sectors and the big wall was built.

-The legion is believed to be primarily solar powered, and they reduce operations at night, which is why a lot of spearhead's offensive operations take place then.

-The 86 aren't supposed to have small arms because of insurrection concerns, but there are tons of abandoned military bases out past the walls and nobody ever does any inspections.

Bakanogami fucked around with this message at 03:00 on May 25, 2021

Moofia Boss Val
May 14, 2021

quote:

-The area within the walls is about 23,000 square km ("about the size of Japan's Kanto region" is the frame of reference used).

Area of 23,000 square km
Map depicts the country as a circle
= radius of 85.565 km

quote:

-There's about 100-120 km between the walls and the frontline bases for units like Spearhead. That space includes both internment camps for any noncombatant 86 and the giant gently caress-off minefield they use to discourage rebellion.

85.565 + 100 km = 186 km radius (from center of the country to the farthest edge of their held territory).
186 x 3.14 = 584 km circumference around the entirety of San Magnolia's held territory.

Bakanogami posted:

-While Giad is located to the east, and spearhead squadron is on the eastern front, the republic is effectively surrounded by the enemy, with similar situations on the northern, western, and southern fronts.

If that's the case, then I don't see why the Legion can't just win right now.

If the robots are able to so thoroughly occupy a perimeter of 584 kilometers (363 miles), completing preventing anyone from getting in or out on land or in the air. They must have at least a dozen robots for every kilometer of the perimeter to prevent anyone from escaping. That would imply they have at least 6,000ish robots surrounding the country. Almost certainly way more than that, because we don't know how deep the Legion's siege perimeter is. We know that the bulk of the fighting is happening in the East/North East, from Galdia, which implies that the thickest concentration of robots is over there. So possibly at least 10,000 robots altogether.

San Magnolia apparently does not have any military forces besides the 86. Once they're gone, that's it. There is no one left to defend the Republic. Someone said earlier that the Republic had big artillery guns from within the minefield. Said poster thought that the 86s - who are on the otherside of the 100km deep minefield perimeter - could be eliminated at any time by the artillery guns. But we saw in a recent episode that the Legion have Scorpion artillery robots that can apparently shell from over 100km away. That means those Scorpions can move up to the minefield perimeter, shell the Republic's artillery, and then there is literally nothing left that can actively hurt the Legion.

The Legion would then be free to clear a path through the minefield. They could either take as much time as they wanted, using minesweepers... or they could just use their superior numbers to set off the mines in a straight line through the perimeter. They'd still have more than enough left to wipe out everyone within the minefield perimeter. Thousands of robots pouring in through the minefield perimeter into the inner, populated area of San Magnolia, and no one would really be able to do anything about it.


Given that the Legion can wipe out San Magnolia at any time they wanted, but they aren't doing so... seems to imply that perhaps the Republic and the Legion are working together.

I don't recall hearing about any major population loss when the Legion first came... so all of the Alba/white haired people were evacuated from the outer settlements in time? This could imply that the government knew the Legion were coming beforehand. It sounds like the only major population loss has been of the minorities.

Furthermore, though the official word is that the Republic is just waiting a couple more years for the Legion to "deactivate"... they seriously can't be that stupid. Sure, politicians are wont to engage in wishful thinking divorced from reality (history tells us this much), but the military higher ups aren't stupid. They're going to be preparing for the worst case scenario. They would know that at their current attrition rate, they're going to run out of 86s real soon, and start having to recruit volunteers/conscripts from the main populace in order to fight the Legion. The Republic should have been visibly preparing for this by now... but they aren't. Which seems to suggest that they may have inside knowledge that they won't have to fight the Legion in 2 years. Perhaps not because the Legion will shut down... but because the Legion will withdraw, as a part of a previous agreement between the Republic and the Legion...

I wonder if the Republic "hired" the Legion to exterminate the minorities for them. The Legion get brains out of this deal? But then, again, San Magnolia wouldn't be able to stop the Legion from eating the rest of the populace. So maybe the Republic secretly controls the Legion? In which case, the Legion switching to "brains" might be the undoing of the Republic, as they might not be able to shut down the robots with brains, who could then try to build up a Legion that isn't controlled by the Republic.

Bakanogami posted:

-The butterflyish Legion they've shown once or twice come in huge clouds and deploy wide-range EM jamming, basically leaving radios unusable in Legion territory. Thus why they rely on the weird telepathic sense-sharing communication, don't rely on remote-controlled drones, and give frontline units a fair degree of leeway in their operations.

Speaking of. THIS thing right here can wipe out San Magnolia at any time. Huge flocks of tens, hundreds of thousands... possibly millions of small robot birds. There isn't anything really stopping the Legion from flying a huge cloud of robot birds across the minefield and having them swoop down and start pecking everyone's eyes and brains out.

Do you know how real life birds of prey kill small animals? A hawk or an eagle swoops down, diving and impacting into their target at terminal velocity. The sheer force imparted onto the target crushing the internal organs of the rabbit/fox/whatever and breaks their neck, pretty much killing them.

Now imagine that the eagle diving at you is made of metal, or maybe carbon fibers or some other advanced material. And these things don't have self preservation in mind. They're willing to kill themselves to kill you. It won't matter if you are wearing a metal helmet; the sheer force of the divebombing metal bird is going to go straight through your helmet and splatter your brain everywhere.

Again, the fact that they aren't doing this is another point towards possible Republic-Legion coordination.

Moofia Boss Val fucked around with this message at 03:33 on May 25, 2021

cock hero flux
Apr 17, 2011




I think the reason why the Legion hasn't just decided to concentrate their forces and just punch straight through is supposed to be just because they aren't programmed to. They're out of control machines, they aren't implied to be undertaking any kind of greater, overarching strategy. At least not yet: that could very well be where the story goes, given that they're increasingly using human-derived units. Their strategy will improve as they acquire more human brains to think for them until eventually they are able to come up with that idea. At which point the overconfident Republic will realize that their minefield and their artillery aren't as ironclad a defence as they assumed they would be. I don't think there's any chance that the Republic was actively working with them, though. If that was the case they probably wouldn't have had their entire military die in the opening of the war. They would have had the 86 plan ready to go by that point. I do think that they consider a war which has a theoretical time limit to be a very convenient way for them to conduct some ethnic cleansing, though. The people in charge would much rather that the 86 all end up dead by the time the war is over.

This does make them incredibly deluded and stupid, yes, but that's in character for them. They're fascists.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012
Yeah, everyone seems to have ample, well-documented evidence that the Legion, while powerful and numerous, are really loving stupid, which is why the fact that they're harvesting human brains is such a game-changer.

I also got the impression that they learned about the Legion's capabilities from survivors of the empire, which is why they're so confident about the six-year shutdown - they were assured of it by the manufacturers themselves.

Darth Walrus fucked around with this message at 04:24 on May 25, 2021

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Let's apply Occam's Razor here:

As CHF points out, the Legion are out of control machines; their behavior showcases some degree of (increasing) adaptability, but they lack initiative. Whatever variables they use to determine their broader strategic moves - if any - hold them back from initiating the large-scale winning push that by indications so far they seem materially capable of executing.

Hell, just as they've adapted by taking brains to replace their decaying processing frameworks, it might very well be possible they consider the San Magnolia theatre itself a proving ground to further develop their tactical capabilities - after all, it's an isolated adversary that shows no initiative of its own in terms of pushing into Legion territory.

This is speculation based on information provided so far by the story, which fits into the themes the work appears to be exploring.

That is, the Legion are a real threat that at some point could've been possible to deal with, but the country's current leadership exploited the crisis (likely brought about partly as a result of their own ineffectualness) to restructure San Magnolia into an isolationist ethnostate clad in liberal democracy trappings, with minorities pushed into conscription, in their hubris coming to the conclusion the danger would pass and this move would simultaneously deal with both their undesirables & refugees as well as ease the war weariness of casualties & resource shortfalls.

OTOH what we've definitely had no indications so far of is this all being some gigabrain conspiracy where the San Magnolia political leadership is in literal cahoots with the robots.

Also their jammers aren't birds, they seem more like short-lived butterflies given how we see them begin to fall inert as Legion withdraws from combat.

ninjewtsu
Oct 9, 2012

the legion are actively getting smarter, we recently saw them adjust their artillery bombardment strategy to adapt to spearhead's tactics

show rules btw. the direction in particular is phenominal

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

ninjewtsu posted:

the legion are actively getting smarter, we recently saw them adjust their artillery bombardment strategy to adapt to spearhead's tactics

show rules btw. the direction in particular is phenominal

That's what I said, yeah. That's new data that hasn't been true for years, and San Magnolia has locked itself away from responding to new tactical and strategic developments.

Kanos
Sep 6, 2006

was there a time when speedwagon didn't get trolled

Moofia Boss Val posted:

:words:

Again, the fact that they aren't doing this is another point towards possible Republic-Legion coordination.

The setting backstory we're presented is that the Republic originally met the Legion with their conventional army and got mostly slaughtered, at which point they passed the Super Racism Law, stuffed all the 86s into concentration camps, forced them to build the wall, and press-ganged them as slave soldiers.

The concept of secret Republic-Legion coordination is, uh, completely nonsensical? Even if we presuppose that there's a secret cabal of San Magnolian leaders who are fully aware of the increasing sapience of the Legion and have somehow managed to contact them in secret and forge a pact, there's no real incentive for either side. The Republic doesn't need killer robots to oppress and genocide minorities for them - they manage to do that on their own just fine, and none of the Albans seem to give a poo poo about it. Even if anyone really objected, well, one of the few things the Republic command structure is shown to be good at is information control. If the end goal of this was "kill all the 86s", they could easily have just crowded them into their camps and then leveled the camps with artillery, or instead of shipping them to the camps they could have shipped them to a big building with Legion Brain Eating Center New Homes For 86s and called it good without having to somehow enter into a conspiracy with an AI gestalt to get both sides to waste huge amounts of resources fighting a fake war.

Also as stated the little radar jamming things flutter around like butterflies and seem to fall down and "die" under their own power relatively quickly. They certainly don't look very robust or useful outside of their intended role of "block the sky and jam radar".

NowonSA
Jul 19, 2013

I am the sexiest poster in the world!
I'm guessing that at some point in the novels there's a mad scientist doing experiments on 86 to try to help them win the war and some sort of political or military figure who's become convinced that the republic is doomed and is working to aid the Legion in the hopes that they'll let him live.

I also expect that eventually a military force of some size (could be a small elite squad or a pretty big force) breaks through the Legion and makes contact with the Republic. It seems like having an outside country come in and see this hosed up situation is too ripe an opportunity to ignore.

I highly doubt any of the characters will be trying to run away from the war, though I expect that's basically the position that the Major will keep advocating for. Ultimately some kind of mass 86 uprising against the republic seems pretty inevitable too, and I'm surprised it hasn't happened already at the point where the story begins.

Kanos
Sep 6, 2006

was there a time when speedwagon didn't get trolled

NowonSA posted:

I also expect that eventually a military force of some size (could be a small elite squad or a pretty big force) breaks through the Legion and makes contact with the Republic. It seems like having an outside country come in and see this hosed up situation is too ripe an opportunity to ignore.

I could see this happening. Actually, I could see the opposite happening, too. Maybe Spearhead gets sent on a suicide mission(which they're heavily hinting is going to be the case), they end up cut off and can't easily retreat back to base, so they decide to just keep pushing forward and seeing how far they get?

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

Kanos posted:

I could see this happening. Actually, I could see the opposite happening, too. Maybe Spearhead gets sent on a suicide mission(which they're heavily hinting is going to be the case), they end up cut off and can't easily retreat back to base, so they decide to just keep pushing forward and seeing how far they get?

I mean, this very last mission was supposed to be a suicide mission. Lena ordering Spearhead to retreat (and having the timing and tactical acumen to allow them to do so) was pretty clearly not part of the plan.

That's the whole reason they felt willing to ship fresh Juggernauts to their base - they didn't think Shin and his crew would be alive long enough to wear them out before their replacements arrived.

NowonSA
Jul 19, 2013

I am the sexiest poster in the world!
Yeah it could be that the outside country finds out that the Republic is still kicking because Shin's squad breaks through the lines and fills them in on what's going on.I guess that's pretty similar to running away from it all, but there's solid tactical reasons for it and they aren't just abandoning the Republic to die. I was expecting them to just keep hanging out and pretty much maintain the status quo, but having something big like that go down makes more sense. I guess I'm used to LN stories kind of treading ground in a lot of ways, but thinking about it that's not something that Rokka no Yuusha (the source of my avatar) did, and that's probably not how things will end up here. It does seem like something has to change or the Republic is straight up screwed, and Shin's group is probably gonna be a big part of that change.

MonsterEnvy
Feb 4, 2012

Shocked I tell you
There is no way San Magnolia is in League with the Legion. They are far too stupid to consider something like that.

gimme the GOD DAMN candy
Jul 1, 2007
the legion don't even have silver hair!

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



I get the feeling like Lena is wearing out her welcome with her uncle, and I worry about her continued safety.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Nitrousoxide posted:

I get the feeling like Lena is wearing out her welcome with her uncle, and I worry about her continued safety.

Her uncle is never going to let something happen to her I'm pretty sure, but drumming her out of the army and married off is something I can see him doing for her own protection you see.

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



Raenir Salazar posted:

Her uncle is never going to let something happen to her I'm pretty sure, but drumming her out of the army and married off is something I can see him doing for her own protection you see.

I think there’s a nonzero chance her father was killed because of his feelings on the 86.

I believe Lena also attempted to go over her uncle’s head in getting reinforcements for her squad, which was why he was so upset with her last time they talked. While I’m sure he would prefer to get her out of command quietly, she isn’t taking his hints that she needs to find a husband and settle down.

It’s also plausible that the artillery barrage last episode was not from the legion, but instead an attempt by the republic to finally silence the the troublesome squad that just won’t die. They spent the last two episodes Chekhov gunning the republic artillery’s existence.

ninjewtsu
Oct 9, 2012

wasn't she able to trace the location of the artillery barrage by their trajectory? that's how she concluded that this is a longer ranged weapon than what the legion has employed previously. if it was friendly fire faking that seems pretty impossible, she'd have seen that they came form the wrong direction and there's no way an alban mortar team is hiding out behind the legion. i think the point of the republic artillery getting so much attention is to really emphasize "it's not necessary for this many 86s to die, the republic has better resources and capabilities than the 86s are receiving. the 86s are dying due to an intentional lack of support, with the openly stated reason being that 86s can die by the hundreds but if a single alban mortar reloader dies due to an operation going wrong that's inexcusable." it'll definitely come into play at some later point (i'm guessing the artillery will effortlessly wipe out a huge wave of legion once they've broken past the 86 in a disgusting demonstration of how almost no one would have to die if the republic was at all invested in preventing casualties) but i really don't think intentional friendly fire is what they're doing here

Kanos
Sep 6, 2006

was there a time when speedwagon didn't get trolled
Yeah I don't really feel like the military would bother to put any effort into trying to kill the 86s themselves. They're stupid and lazy and hold all the cards in this relationship; they don't need to send artillery crews into potential danger just to help kill the 86s, if they want Spearhead dead they can just "misplace" some supply shipments so that Spearhead's equipment breaks down, or just continually send them on " totally urgent no time to waste" suicide missions until they're all dead, or just wait for them to finish out their terms of service and quietly execute them when they report for "debriefing".

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice
Yeah its pretty easy for modern militaries to track artillery; its a big part of counterbattery fire.


Nitrousoxide posted:

I think there’s a nonzero chance her father was killed because of his feelings on the 86.

I believe Lena also attempted to go over her uncle’s head in getting reinforcements for her squad, which was why he was so upset with her last time they talked. While I’m sure he would prefer to get her out of command quietly, she isn’t taking his hints that she needs to find a husband and settle down.

It’s also plausible that the artillery barrage last episode was not from the legion, but instead an attempt by the republic to finally silence the the troublesome squad that just won’t die. They spent the last two episodes Chekhov gunning the republic artillery’s existence.

It's fairly difficult for most people to knowingly sacrifice members of their family; even in Nazi Germany. Most likely I think he is only vaguely aware that there was likely a conspiracy to kill his brother, and ultimately maybe he begrudgingly accepted it for the good of the republic. But I think his niece is probably a line he won't allow to be crossed without directly intervening.

MonsterEnvy
Feb 4, 2012

Shocked I tell you

ninjewtsu posted:

(i'm guessing the artillery will effortlessly wipe out a huge wave of legion once they've broken past the 86 in a disgusting demonstration of how almost no one would have to die if the republic was at all invested in preventing casualties)

This I doubt, given how stupid they have been, I would not even expect the artillery to even be manned right now.

Like everything about them I have seen is ineffective and stupid, given that the whole reason they have taken on their current horrible strategy is because they were unwilling to risk their own necks.

Raenir Salazar posted:

It's fairly difficult for most people to knowingly sacrifice members of their family; even in Nazi Germany. Most likely I think he is only vaguely aware that there was likely a conspiracy to kill his brother, and ultimately maybe he begrudgingly accepted it for the good of the republic. But I think his niece is probably a line he won't allow to be crossed without directly intervening.

Yeah I could see him removing her from command, but I doubt he would do anything super terrible to her. He's a poo poo person, but he probably cares for his family.

MonsterEnvy fucked around with this message at 20:45 on May 26, 2021

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
I imagine whatever idealism he might've had in the past died alongside his brother.

And Lena's assignment to Spearhead sounds like a good way to get her to quit, if you think about it.

Talorat
Sep 18, 2007

Hahaha! Aw come on, I can't tell you everything right away! That would make for a boring story, don't you think?
It's actually very weird that he assigned her to that unit knowing how much of a bleeding heart she is considering every previous commander of spearhead went insane or put a gun in their mouth. Makes me think that he has a secondary agenda, but none of the rest of his behavior would match up with that.

Omnicrom
Aug 3, 2007
Snorlax Afficionado


Talorat posted:

It's actually very weird that he assigned her to that unit knowing how much of a bleeding heart she is considering every previous commander of spearhead went insane or put a gun in their mouth. Makes me think that he has a secondary agenda, but none of the rest of his behavior would match up with that.

I wonder if the reason she was assigned was specifically to try and destroy her idealism. I could see her uncle offering her that assignment in the hopes that she'll come to believe she is powerless to fight back and that the struggle is hopeless and resign herself to the system and to stop giving a poo poo about the 86.

Getting her to quit her military career and marrying her off to the rich failson of some prestigious bastard would probably be a bonus. As for why he tosses her to spearhead? I'm pretty sure not EVERY previous operator went insane and killed themselves. Or at least, not all of them killed themselves. It seemed to me like the ones that didn't die quit the military entirely, which IS probably what he wants.

gimme the GOD DAMN candy
Jul 1, 2007
i don't think anyone took the situation with spearhead operators very seriously, what with how there was no particular effort made to find out the cause.

cock hero flux
Apr 17, 2011



gimme the GOD drat candy posted:

i don't think anyone took the situation with spearhead operators very seriously, what with how there was no particular effort made to find out the cause.

they don't seem to take the entire war very seriously. Nobody really cares. The civilians don't pay it any attention and are only exposed to it in the form of cheery news broadcasts telling them that the Republic won another great victory and nobody(important) died. The lower echelons of the military itself seem to mostly consist of lazy people who want a career where nobody will notice if they drink on the job.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
I'm sure Lena was in part assigned to Spearhead so Uncle Jerome could get a better picture of the situation regarding their previous handlers.

Kanos
Sep 6, 2006

was there a time when speedwagon didn't get trolled

Conspiratiorist posted:

I'm sure Lena was in part assigned to Spearhead so Uncle Jerome could get a better picture of the situation regarding their previous handlers.

I don't think he's interested in anything other than waiting it out until the end of the war. Lena has made multiple earnest attempts to actually improve their tactics and utilize their strategic resources more efficiently, and he consistently shoots them down because either he doesn't give a gently caress(typically with a response of "why do you care about 86s") or because political concerns make her suggestions too hard. She had to dig through a god damned archive just to get actual maps to give to Spearhead(which she had to transmit on the down low) and her suggestion of "hey what if we used the gigantic battery of artillery we have sitting around doing nothing" was met with a flat "no, and i'm not even going to attempt present a case for its use to the higher ups".

I'm with the read that her assignment to Spearhead was largely an attempt to scare her into conformity by handing her a unit of dogs so rabid that no one has been able to handle them for long. Best case, she'd quit. Worst case, she'd simply one-sidedly glom onto them like her previous units. I don't think he was legitimately concerned that she'd off herself, since she's good friends with one of the primary Para-RAID researchers.

gimme the GOD DAMN candy
Jul 1, 2007
the military is incompetent and her uncle is a high ranking member of this profoundly useless organization. he's not a savvy strategist just waiting for an excuse to spring into action. he's functionally the same as his lazy racist peers but with a slightly friendlier facade for his niece.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

Conspiratiorist posted:

I'm sure Lena was in part assigned to Spearhead so Uncle Jerome could get a better picture of the situation regarding their previous handlers.

This may, however, have been in the same way that Spearhead are assigned to particularly dangerous missions so that San Magnolia can get a better picture of the situation regarding fuckloads of potential 86 dissidents getting killed off.

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chiasaur11
Oct 22, 2012



gimme the GOD drat candy posted:

the military is incompetent and her uncle is a high ranking member of this profoundly useless organization. he's not a savvy strategist just waiting for an excuse to spring into action. he's functionally the same as his lazy racist peers but with a slightly friendlier facade for his niece.

Well, he was one of the members of the military back when they actually did something, so he probably isn't as incompetent as his peers when he actually tries.

He's just, you know. Given up.

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