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Should troll Fancy Pelosi be allowed to stay? This poll is closed. |
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Pretty good thread by Nate Silver on why there's hope yet for the midterms: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1398335322883252230?s=20 https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1398335835058102275?s=20 https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1398340805367042051?s=20 After Biden won in 2020 but we had disappointing senate losses, people thought GA senate chances were nil. But then we won both of those seats. I think we can do very well in 2022 if Dems continue with their positive messaging that explains simply and efficiently what the party will be able to pass if we keep control of the house and senate. Worked for GA, wouldn't hurt to try it nationally. Warnock and Ossoff actually outperformed Biden in GA. If there's one thing we have going for us going into midterms it's that Trump cultist turnout is demonstrably lower if Trump isn't on the ballot himself. Vorik fucked around with this message at 18:12 on May 29, 2021 |
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May 29, 2021 18:02
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Man I'd like to believe that but this is the same guy who used gutfeels to declare Trump had only a 2% chance of winning the 2016 Republican primary Still though the Georgia runoffs were very interesting. And in 2010 when the GOP doubled down on antigovernment poo poo and racism, they very conspicuously never claimed the election was stolen and voting is pointless, they went with "Obama tricked America with a fake birth certificate"
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May 29, 2021 18:28
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Vorik posted:Pretty good thread by Nate Silver on why there's hope yet for the midterms: What worries me are all the new voter laws that were passed in states that just happened to go for Biden in the last election (I'm sure this is just a coincidence, of course). For the most part, Biden and the Democrats have been doing a great job. Best case scenario is a replay of 2020: all of their whining about the election being "stolen" keeps the committed chuds home.
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May 29, 2021 18:33
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F_Shit_Fitzgerald posted:What worries me are all the new voter laws that were passed in states that just happened to go for Biden in the last election (I'm sure this is just a coincidence, of course). For the most part, Biden and the Democrats have been doing a great job. There's a very real possibility that this wave of voter suppression ends up being an own goal, since the GOP's new base is low-propensity rural voters; they ceded massive ground amongst suburban educated voters (who, y'know, tend to be high-propensity voters) in 2020, sometimes astonishingly so. https://twitter.com/ShaunKetkar/status/1398036836379934723
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May 29, 2021 18:41
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Vorik posted:After Biden won in 2020 but we had disappointing senate losses, people thought GA senate chances were nil. But then we won both of those seats. I think we can do very well in 2022 if Dems continue with their positive messaging that explains simply and efficiently what the party will be able to pass if we keep control of the house and senate. Worked for GA, wouldn't hurt to try it nationally. We need Supermajority Joe to be born.
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May 29, 2021 18:46
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Nonsense posted:We need Supermajority Joe to be born. Supermajoerity
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May 29, 2021 18:53
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Rea posted:There's a very real possibility that this wave of voter suppression ends up being an own goal, since the GOP's new base is low-propensity rural voters; they ceded massive ground amongst suburban educated voters (who, y'know, tend to be high-propensity voters) in 2020, sometimes astonishingly so. This is interesting. Carmel (pronounced car-MEL, God help you if you put the emphasis on the wrong syllable) has all the hallmarks of the terrible rich suburb, but the people there are not stupid. I've been wondering if the correlation between education and voting propensity is about to greatly shift the voter turnout patterns that favored Republicans for the past 40 years. edit: One of the replies mentions Hamilton was the reddest county in the entire state in 1996. That's a crazy shift. The future of American democracy may well depend on if the pro-Trump turnout without him on the ballot exceeds the anti-Trump turnout without him on the ballot.. We just saw the case with him on the ballot, though it was far closer than it should have been due to the electoral college. pthighs fucked around with this message at 19:25 on May 29, 2021 |
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May 29, 2021 19:23
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F_Shit_Fitzgerald posted:What worries me are all the new voter laws that were passed in states that just happened to go for Biden in the last election (I'm sure this is just a coincidence, of course). For the most part, Biden and the Democrats have been doing a great job.
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May 29, 2021 19:25
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pthighs posted:This is interesting. Carmel (pronounced car-MEL, God help you if you put the emphasis on the wrong syllable) has all the hallmarks of the terrible rich suburb, but the people there are not stupid. I've been wondering if the correlation between education and voting propensity is about to greatly shift the voter turnout patterns that favored Republicans for the past 40 years. It's a pattern that's showing up basically all over the US—suburbs rapidly running to the Democrats, even ones that were historically extremely red. Basically the only urban/suburban areas I've seen that Trump gained in were cities where he'd basically hit the floor of support, and the only place to go was up—Chicago, NYC, etc. It's very possible that midterms/off-year elections being bad for Dems gets flipped on its head, since those rely on high-propensity voters, a large portion of which are now shifting away from the GOP.
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May 29, 2021 19:30
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FlamingLiberal posted:Yes it concerns me as well, because I saw one report saying that if the same laws had been in place in 2020 in Georgia, Biden wouldn't have won that state and the runoffs don't happen. yeah, but (god willing) next election will not have a pandemic that is being denied by one party causing a historically aberrational number of democrats to vote absentee
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May 29, 2021 19:41
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yeah, i'm less worried about the voter suppression laws than with the states in which true believers are seizing control of the traditional ballot counting/integrity apparatus before 2020 there wasn't a strong partisan tilt in who used absentee voting and i think putting in restrictive laws after democrats won surprise victories is just as likely to motivate people to stand in line as give up that's not going to matter if a bunch of red states are going to pull the same poo poo that cyber ninja is right now with the "audit". if that happens, it seems like the only recourse is the courts which doesn't seem too promising
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May 29, 2021 19:59
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FlamingLiberal posted:Yes it concerns me as well, because I saw one report saying that if the same laws had been in place in 2020 in Georgia, Biden wouldn't have won that state and the runoffs don't happen. Not to say that it's not a serious concern, but I was kind of annoyed by the way that article framed it because it assumes that all the votes that were cast in absentee methods that were no longer legal would simply disappear entirely, which they probably wouldn't even in a worst case scenario - you have to imagine that at least a few people who voted under expanded absentee provisions or whatever would still have figured something out under the new system. That obviously doesn't make the laws not a big deal or that they don't imperil democratic chances in the future, but it still seems like bad statistics to me. And yeah, the scarier possibility - and one I'm not sure how to plausibly legislate around even if you could snap your fingers and end the filibuster and wire all 50 Senate democrats into a hivemind operated by Bernie Sanders - is red state governments simply going full legal calvinball and trying to nullify elections entirely.
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May 29, 2021 20:59
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Spiritus Nox posted:And yeah, the scarier possibility - and one I'm not sure how to plausibly legislate around even if you could snap your fingers and end the filibuster and wire all 50 Senate democrats into a hivemind operated by Bernie Sanders - is red state governments simply going full legal calvinball and trying to nullify elections entirely. Wouldn't it be a civil war at that point? I mean, you can't have states just declaring the election invalid. DrSunshine fucked around with this message at 22:36 on May 29, 2021 |
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May 29, 2021 22:32
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Vorik posted:Pretty good thread by Nate Silver on why there's hope yet for the midterms: I honestly don’t know why anyone listens to a word Nate Silver says. I mean just the other day he came out and handicapped the CoVid Wuhan Lab conspiracy as being 50/50 based on nothing at all. He’s an absolute moron. Rea posted:It's a pattern that's showing up basically all over the US—suburbs rapidly running to the Democrats, even ones that were historically extremely red. Basically the only urban/suburban areas I've seen that Trump gained in were cities where he'd basically hit the floor of support, and the only place to go was up—Chicago, NYC, etc. I’m not going to cross my fingers with Trump not being on the ballot. 2018/2020 in particular were referendums on Trump more than any other election in recent memory. I think the closest analogue we have were 2006/2008 which were massive wave elections in response to the Bush administration and all of that energy died the second Obama was in office. Pobrecito fucked around with this message at 22:41 on May 29, 2021 |
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May 29, 2021 22:35
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Pobrecito posted:I honestly don’t know why anyone listens to a word Nate Silver says. I mean just the other day he came out and handicapped the CoVid Wuhan Lab conspiracy as being 50/50 based on nothing at all. He’s an absolute moron. Either it happened or it didn't happen, that's 50/50 right there, that's how statistics work!!
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May 29, 2021 22:36
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https://twitter.com/KDKA/status/1398760693189558274?s=20 Our nation is ill, and there is no cure.
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May 29, 2021 23:15
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Nonsense posted:https://twitter.com/KDKA/status/1398760693189558274?s=20 Thankfully, according to the stream in the tweet you linked, here are no injuries and 2 people have been detained. 
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May 29, 2021 23:28
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DrSunshine posted:Wouldn't it be a civil war at that point? I mean, you can't have states just declaring the election invalid. bush v gore suggests that there is a possibility for blatantly partisan overturning of an election to go through unopposed
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May 29, 2021 23:33
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DrSunshine posted:Wouldn't it be a civil war at that point? I mean, you can't have states just declaring the election invalid. "In a 6-3 decision, SCOTUS has determined Trump is the god-emperor of America..." GhostofJohnMuir posted:bush v gore suggests that there is a possibility for blatantly partisan overturning of an election to go through unopposed drat beat me to it
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May 30, 2021 00:30
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I'm still looking forward to the future moreso than I was before the election. I am also convinced that the chud loyalists and Qs will remain the jacobite boogymen of everyone left of them for a while. Grouchio fucked around with this message at 00:37 on May 30, 2021 |
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May 30, 2021 00:33
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Vorik posted:Pretty good thread by Nate Silver there never has been nor ever will be one of these
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May 30, 2021 00:45
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It makes sense to me and confirms my own thoughts on the matter. The GOP aren't course correcting or making any effort to appeal to moderates and sunurbaners they lost; they're opposing measures that are popular and are helping people. Evidence is that if Trump isn't on the ballet many of these new GOP voters stay home. Newer voting Dems seem more determined than ever to not let things slide again; its possible that the Dems are the ones who start performing consistently during mid terms. Put all together, Nate Silver has a point. Also the Redistricting/Census wasn't as bad as it could have been, and Dems might be able to keep the House and expand their lead in the Senate by 2 Senators. Then it no longer is an issue to worry about Mitch throwing the Senate in chaos.
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May 30, 2021 01:08
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Yeah I do wonder if without Trump on the ballot next year a lot of them stay home
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May 30, 2021 01:12
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Raenir Salazar posted:It makes sense to me and confirms my own thoughts on the matter. The GOP aren't course correcting or making any effort to appeal to moderates and sunurbaners they lost; they're opposing measures that are popular and are helping people. Evidence is that if Trump isn't on the ballet many of these new GOP voters stay home. Newer voting Dems seem more determined than ever to not let things slide again; its possible that the Dems are the ones who start performing consistently during mid terms. yeah, silver is an overated wonk who wants to play big brain pundit but i think he is right here. the GOP isn't gonna 180 and its just gonna get more and more insane. trump when he is on tv basically screams for purges and about his posting enemies. most of their attacks on biden are the usually poo poo from the 80s which no one outside their base believes or cares about. i feel ok about 2022 but i will feel better or worse when we are this month next year. FlamingLiberal posted:Yeah I do wonder if without Trump on the ballot next year a lot of them stay home which folks? dems sound like they will probably still come out in good numbers since trump and the current GOP has put the fear of god into them. the chuds, i am not sure. i am gonna assume trump will eventually start doing on the road rallys and poo poo. that will jazz up the chuds but also probably the dems too. also trumps fickle as poo poo and will stab alot of these assholes in the back while the smile vacantly. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 01:17 on May 30, 2021 |
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May 30, 2021 01:13
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One thing that keeps occurring to me when I hear people say "Trump isn't gonna be on the ballot anymore" - he might not be literally *on* the ballot, but I don't know what you've seen from him or the GOP that makes you think they're not going to try and keep him just as present in people's heads as he was in '18, besides him not having Twitter, I guess. Trump still has his pathological need for attention and adoration and the GOP is, if anything, more inclined then ever to grovel for it - and basically every left-of-center politician and pundit I pay any attention to is happy to point these things out. I'm not going to make any bets about who turns out or doesn't over the next four years, but I don't think it's wise to be making any predictions on a basis of "Trump's not a part of the landscape any more!" when that plainly isn't true.
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May 30, 2021 01:19
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Piell posted:Either it happened or it didn't happen, that's 50/50 right there, that's how statistics work!! the 50:50 was literally said on cable news when the LHC was new and they asked their science "expert" about micro blackholes ending the world. e : for two other nuggets of stupidity from CNN during the 2010sish era. "why cant they cool fukashima by dumping liquid nitrogen on it?" "did a micro blackhole destroy airliner number whatever?" PhazonLink fucked around with this message at 01:25 on May 30, 2021 |
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May 30, 2021 01:23
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Not literally on the ballot and being in everyone's faces nonetheless is something that has already happened and did jack squat for them in the Georgia runoffs. And then Trump was banned from twitter and he's less and less present in the news than ever before; there isn't likely a way for him to stay in the news like he was in 2020 and more likely than not this current trend of not publicly mattering continues where he still maintains his grip on the GOP apparatus; but isn't able to drive up turnout. People wanted their god emperor and without it there's no point; and whichever empty suit gets crowned next isn't going to have the same appeal or outsider status.
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May 30, 2021 01:25
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We've seen the difference between Trump actually being on the ballot (2016, 2020) and Trump not being on the ballot (2018, 2021 GA runoffs, other special elections) when it comes to GOP turnout. It's considerable. There's a parallel question about how much Trump being an active presence drives Democratic turnout. Will there be a similar demobilization of Dem voters in 2022 and 2024 without the imminent menace of the orange dipshit?
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May 30, 2021 01:30
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Raenir Salazar posted:Not literally on the ballot and being in everyone's faces nonetheless is something that has already happened and did jack squat for them in the Georgia runoffs. Yeah Trump's visibility and reach absolutely plummeted the second he got banned from social media, and even more so once he was no longer president. Let's also not forget that even when Trump had the most influence (pre losing to Biden and pre social media ban), he campaigned and endorsed plenty of candidates. Many of them lost including Kelly Loeffer and David Perdue the GA republicans who lost to Warnock and Ossoff. The fact of the matter is that a whole lot of these republicans worship Trump and him not being on the ballot means some of them will stay home. Now will that be enough to overcome the disadvantages dems will have going into midterms? Who knows, but it's certainly something to consider and a reason for hope IMO. Vorik fucked around with this message at 01:37 on May 30, 2021 |
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May 30, 2021 01:34
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FMguru posted:There's a parallel question about how much Trump being an active presence drives Democratic turnout. Will there be a similar demobilization of Dem voters in 2022 and 2024 without the imminent menace of the orange dipshit? This is the biggest question IMO, and anyone who tells you they already know the answer is full of poo poo.
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May 30, 2021 01:40
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Spiritus Nox posted:This is the biggest question IMO, and anyone who tells you they already know the answer is full of poo poo. Again though, the Georgia runoffs and to a lesser extent the 2018 mid terms are evidence.
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May 30, 2021 01:50
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E: can’t read, nvm
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May 30, 2021 01:59
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NM-01 absentee turnout for the 6/1 special election so far has been promising at roughly 60% coming from dems. Which was the margin during the 2020 election (60-37).
Grouchio fucked around with this message at 03:48 on May 30, 2021 |
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May 30, 2021 02:12
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Raenir Salazar posted:Again though, the Georgia runoffs and to a lesser extent the 2018 mid terms are evidence. To be fair though Trump was in power. Now I am sure the Democratic party isn't going to let go of Trump as a motivator but the more legislative victories they can pile up will be helpful.
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May 30, 2021 02:28
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Grouchio posted:NE-01 absentee turnout for the 6/1 special election so far has been promising at roughly 60% coming from dems. Which was the margin during the 2020 election (60-37). NE-01, or NM-01? If it's NM-01 you're talking about : https://twitter.com/DanBoydNM/status/1397975199987822593 nice Rea fucked around with this message at 02:38 on May 30, 2021 |
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May 30, 2021 02:28
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Raenir Salazar posted:Again though, the Georgia runoffs and to a lesser extent the 2018 mid terms are evidence. Trump was still a Boogeyman in that example. The party line for the Dems was "Get us Georgia and it will be the nail in Bad Orange Man's coffin. Nothing except Manchin and Sinema  will be able to stand in our way and we will do all the good things Trump hates and he will be so pwned."
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May 30, 2021 03:25
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the_steve posted:Trump was still a Boogeyman in that example. The party line for the Dems was "Get us Georgia and it will be the nail in Bad Orange Man's coffin. Nothing except Manchin and Sinema Also, Trump himself was dampening Republican turnout in the Georgia elections by talking about how he’d been betrayed iirc, being off Twitter shortens his reach either way but if he gets bored and doesn’t poo poo on the R candidates in the midterm I tend to think voters drift back to their old loyalty patterns and turn out like usual. Who really knows though
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May 30, 2021 03:36
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Rea posted:NE-01, or NM-01? lol at the one commenter wondering why everyone else is saying nice
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May 30, 2021 03:36
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Raenir Salazar posted:Again though, the Georgia runoffs and to a lesser extent the 2018 mid terms are evidence. I'm sorry but if you're trying to claim that Trump wasn't at issue in the 2018 midterms I don't even know what to say.
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May 30, 2021 03:37
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I avoid politics now and have been happier for it. Unfortunately, I found something that must be shared with you lot. Season 1 Episode 10 of The Simpsons Homer weighs himself and it's 239 pounds and he calls himself a blimp. Back when Trump lied about being 239 I cannot believe there were not memes all over the internet of that scene making fun of him. That's all I got. Just wanted you guys to know about that scene.
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May 30, 2021 03:46
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